Israel-Iran Escalation - The Times Of Central Asia

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Turkmenistan’s Diplomatic Moves Amid Iran-Israel Tensions

One of the elements most highlighted by the recent military confrontation between Israel and the U.S. on one side and Iran on the other is the geographical relevance of Central Asia to the situation. This is particularly true in the case of Turkmenistan, a country that shares a border of almost 1,200 kilometers with Iran. During the most intense days of the conflict, in a particularly unusual move, Turkmenistan opened its borders to foreign citizens seeking to escape from Iranian territory, which was under Israeli air strikes at the time. On the diplomatic front, there have also been several high-level meetings and talks involving Turkmenistan; just after his meeting in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, travelled to Ashgabat for a meeting with his Turkmen counterpart, Rashid Meredov. The day after, Meredov had a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Ashgabat for a meeting with the Turkmen leader, Serdar Berdimuhamedov. Focusing primarily on the mutual isolation of Turkmenistan and Iran, Luca Anceschi, Professor of Eurasian Studies at the University of Glasgow, gave The Times of Central Asia his interpretation of these developments: “In my opinion, there is a fundamental issue, which is Turkmen isolation. When we see a small shift, we think that things are changing, but nothing changes. The second isolation is that of Iran, which in this case is not intentional. The reality we have seen in recent days is that Iran is isolated at the regional level. Russia has made it clear that Iran is expendable, and has not given reassuring answers. We see that there is an attempt to remedy this forced isolation on the part of Iran. To get out of these regional arrangements, they have tried to go everywhere, including Ashgabat.” Operational agreements on the energy side are certainly weighing on Tehran's desire to reassure Turkmenistan about the stability of the theocratic regime that rules Iran. These agreements are particularly useful to Iran in meeting the energy needs of the northern part of the country, which is remote and poorly connected to the south, where the country’s main natural gas fields are located. According to Temur Umarov, a Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, “Since 2022, Turkmenistan's visibility in Eurasian politics has certainly increased, and this is also the result of geopolitical changes that have taken place in the region in recent years,” Umarov told TCA. “What happened in Iran further increases Ashgabat's visibility, but it was coincidental that Lavrov's visit to Turkmenistan took place during the clash between Israel and Iran, as it was part of a wider tour of the region by the Russian Foreign Minister.” Another aspect that should be considered is the change in tone on the part of Turkmen diplomacy, which at first glance appears much more assertive than in the past. A few weeks ago, Ashgabat issued a very harsh statement regarding Trump's decision to include Turkmenistan among the countries...

Diplomacy Geopolitics Israel-Iran Escalation

Turkmenistan Attracts Renewed Attention from Washington and Moscow Amid Regional Tensions

Turkmenistan has become the focus of intensified diplomatic engagement from both Russia and the United States, as geopolitical tensions in the broader region escalate, particularly following recent clashes between Iran and Israel. On June 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov concluded a two-day visit to Ashgabat, where he emphasized expanding economic ties but also made clear Russia’s intention to preserve its cultural and political influence in Turkmenistan. Lavrov announced plans to open a joint Russian-Turkmen university and called for increased youth exchanges. “We suggest expanding the productive interaction between the Institute of International Relations under Turkmenistan’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the MGIMO University under the Russian Foreign Ministry and developing ties between budding diplomats of the both countries with the assistance of our Council of Young Diplomats,” Lavrov said, according to a Russian Foreign Ministry transcript. In parallel, Lavrov took aim at U.S. regional policy. While condemning U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure under the Trump administration, he nonetheless praised its “realism and common sense,” in contrast to what he termed the Biden administration’s “neoliberal hegemonic plans.” U.S. Diplomatic Overtures The United States has also stepped up its outreach. On the same day Lavrov arrived in Ashgabat, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a phone call with Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov. Two days earlier, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau also spoke with Meredov. According to a State Department readout, Rubio thanked Turkmenistan for facilitating the transit of U.S. citizens out of Iran during the recent Iranian-Israeli crisis and expressed interest in expanding economic and commercial cooperation. Though historically neutral and cautious in its diplomacy, Turkmenistan has shown recent signs of greater engagement with Western partners. Earlier this year, it launched a gas-swap deal involving Turkey and Iran to supply natural gas to the European Union, a move some analysts suggest may have raised concerns in Moscow. Strategic Infrastructure and U.S. Interest Adding to speculation over increased Western interest, on June 23, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported the opening of a new airport in Jebel, near the Caspian Sea. The airport, built on the site of a former Soviet military airfield, features a 3,200-meter runway and modern navigation systems. The publication suggested that such infrastructure could be of interest to the U.S. military. Despite recent overtures, Turkmenistan’s relations with Washington have faced challenges. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, citizens of Turkmenistan are among those affected by new travel restrictions under an executive order signed by President Donald Trump. The order, which took effect on June 9, aims to curb visa overstays and enhance national security. Critics argue that the measure is overly broad and risks being discriminatory.

Israel-Iran Escalation Transport and Logistics Trade Routes

After High Hopes, Central Asia Views Iran Trade Routes with More Caution

Like some Central Asian neighbors, Uzbekistan is urgently reviewing possible changes to some trade routes because of conflict in the Middle East, even though that could entail sharply higher transport costs. The contingency planning follows a surge in trade talks between officials from Iran and countries in Central Asia earlier this year, prior to the intense strikes that Israel and Iran launched at each other this month. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding on Wednesday, but questions remain about Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb even after the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear sites. U.S. President Donald Trump said the sites were “obliterated,” but, according to some Western media organizations, a preliminary U.S. intelligence report concluded that the U.S. attacks may have only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months. A June 25 statement by the Central Intelligence Agency says that “Iran’s nuclear program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes.” Against this murky backdrop, and the partial uncertainty over Central Asia’s extensive web of trade links, Uzbekistan is reviewing transport and logistics arrangements to keep its economy and connections with international partners running as smoothly as possible. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev discussed options with key advisers at a meeting on Monday. “The military actions that have taken place in the Middle East in recent days have further aggravated the already unstable situation. This cannot but affect Uzbekistan's foreign economic relations and access to world markets,” Uzbekistan’s presidential office said. “In particular, the need to diversify export routes and redirect cargo to other, safer ports was noted. According to preliminary estimates, this could lead to an increase in transportation costs by up to 30%. In this regard, instructions were given to coordinate alternative routes with partner countries and support export-oriented enterprises,” the presidency said. It said the trade and transport ministers, as well as other key officials, have been instructed to help business groups with export-import operations and finding new sales markets. Maintaining price stability in the domestic market and sustainable production rates are also key concerns. Last month, Uzbek and Iranian officials met in Tehran and agreed to expand trade between their countries to an annual $2 billion, four times the current amount. Iranian ports offer Central Asian exporters access to the Indian Ocean and international markets beyond. “The five Central Asian republics — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — are increasingly seeking alternatives to the traditional transit routes that have tied them to Moscow or made them dependent on Chinese infrastructure,” said a commentary posted by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, an Israel-based group that studies Mideast security and foreign policy. “Iran offers an appealing option: a gateway to the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, access to European markets via Turkey, and industrial and technological partnerships that diversify the region’s economic relationships,” said the analysis, which was published on June 4, shortly before the recent round of fighting between Israel and Iran. Officials in Kazakhstan have warned of disruption to southern...

Israel-Iran Escalation Strategic Stability Regional Influence Middle Corridor Belt and Road Initiative

Iran–Israel War Highlights Central Asia as Zone of Strategic Stability

The explosive conflict between Iran and Israel, including coordinated U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, has drawn global attention to the Persian Gulf and Levant. The escalatory spectacle, however, has blinded most observers to a quieter structural shift. This is the rising indispensability of Central Asia, including its linkages with the South Caucasus. Unaligned in rhetoric and untouched by spillover, Central Asia's very stability quietly threw into relief its increasing centrality to Eurasian energy and logistics calculations. As maritime chokepoints came into question and ideological rhetoric became more inflamed, Central Asia offers a reminder that the most valuable nodes in a network are the ones that continue operating silently and without disruption. Neither Israel nor Iran has real operational depth in Central Asia, and this has made a difference. Unlike Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen — where proxy networks or ideological leverage allowed Tehran to externalize confrontation — no such mechanisms exist east of the Caspian Sea. Iran’s efforts in Tajikistan, grounded in shared linguistic heritage and periodic religious diplomacy, today remain cultural and informational rather than sectarian and clientelist. The influence of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Central Asia is minimal; Israeli presence, while diplomatically steady in places like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, is neither controversial nor militarized. There are no significant arms flows or dual-use infrastructure for either side to use. As a result, Central Asia has remained untouched by the conflict. Although the Iran–Israel conflict is relatively geographically localized, it has shed light on global systems far beyond the immediate zone of combat. Although not so far from the missile trajectories and nuclear facilities, Central Asia and the South Caucasus are remarkably insulated from their effects. Rather than becoming another theater of contestation, they have demonstrated their value as stabilizing elements at a time of heightened geostrategic volatility. It is no longer optional to take into account the Central Asian space, which geoeconomically includes Azerbaijan, now a permanent fixture at the region's summits. As the war now produces a phase of reactive adaptation in international geoeconomics and diplomacy, the region has become a control parameter of the international system rather than a fluctuating variable dependent upon it. The Iran–Israel conflict has drawn new attention to the vulnerability of maritime energy corridors, especially the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes. While contingency planning has focused on naval logistics and airpower deterrents in the Gulf, the Eurasian interior has remained materially unaffected, reflecting its structural indispensability. Central Asia and the South Caucasus, particularly Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, offer existing and potential overland alternatives that bypass maritime chokepoints entirely. Kazakhstan’s oil continues to flow via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline to the Black Sea, while Azerbaijan’s infrastructure, anchored by the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) corridor, links Caspian energy to Mediterranean terminals. These routes are not replacements for Persian Gulf volumes, but, as redundancies, they acquire significance as stabilizing arteries as well as increased relevance in moments of system stress. The war has thus sharpened a fact...

Kazakhstan Middle East Evacuation Air Travel Suspension Israel-Iran Escalation

Kazakhstan Acts Swiftly on Middle East Crisis: Citizens Evacuated, Flights Suspended

In the wake of escalating hostilities in the Middle East, Kazakhstan has undertaken swift measures to safeguard its citizens and adapt its aviation policies. On the night of June 13, Israel launched “Operation Lion’s Roar,” targeting military and strategic sites in Iran, citing concerns over Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. The offensive triggered international concern and widespread flight restrictions, which affected Kazakhstani citizens in the UAE, Iran, and Israel. Stranded Tourists and Initial Evacuations In its immediate response, Kazakhstan’s Aviation Administration imposed a full ban on flights through the airspace of Iran, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon. The directive applied to all Kazakh carriers, both commercial and charter, requiring them to halt operations across the affected regions. As a result, around 300 Kazakh nationals, primarily tourists, were unable to return home. Despite prior warnings, flights to the UAE continued to depart with full passenger loads, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov. Evacuations began the following day. On June 14, six Kazakh citizens were evacuated from Iran via Azerbaijan. By June 15, another 68 individuals, including diplomats and their families, crossed into Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its gratitude to Iran, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and other partner countries for facilitating the evacuations. Further operations saw 332 Kazakh tourists repatriated from the UAE to Almaty on two FlyDubai flights on June 15, with support from the Turistik Kamkor Foundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. As of June 20, an additional 66 citizens had been evacuated from Israel via Egypt, while 78 others left Iran through Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. “Thanks to joint efforts, more and more citizens are able to return home safely,” the Foreign Ministry noted. Ministry Advisories and Air Travel Disruptions On June 23, the Foreign Ministry issued an official advisory urging Kazakh citizens to refrain from traveling to the Middle East. Those already in the region were instructed to stay alert, avoid large gatherings, monitor official updates, and maintain contact with Kazakh embassies. Airlines also took precautionary measures. Air Astana extended its suspension of flights to Dubai and Doha through June 24, offering passengers the option of free rebooking or a full refund. SCAT Airlines announced delays to flights bound for Sharm el-Sheikh and Antalya, citing bird strikes and the volatile security environment. The airline also cancelled a flight from Astana to Doha. By June 24, Dubai’s Al Maktoum and Dubai International airports had resumed full operations. The airspace over Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait also reopened. UAE authorities have urged travelers to confirm flight details with their airlines and arrive early at airports.

Israel-Iran Escalation Railways Logistics

Kazakhstan Faces Potential Logistics Disruptions Amid Iran-Israel Conflict

Kazakhstan’s Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, has warned that the only significant risk to the national economy stemming from the conflict between Iran and Israel is a potential disruption to southern logistics routes. “We are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and hope for a peaceful resolution. In terms of losses, we primarily export food to Iran, and we do not expect these events to affect that trade. The population there still needs to be fed. Our main concern is logistics. The only railway line heading south runs through Iran,” Zhumangarin told reporters on the sidelines of a Senate meeting. The route in question is the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran segment of the North-South International Transport Corridor (Zhanaozen-Gyzylgaya-Bereket-Etrek-Gorgan), constructed between 2009 and 2014. The corridor reduces the distance from China to Iran by 500 kilometers when passing through Kazakhstan. However, Zhumangarin noted that Kazakhstan currently transports only a small volume of goods via this route, citing the poor condition of Iran’s railways. Iran’s railway infrastructure adheres to European standards with a track gauge of 1,435 mm, while Kazakhstan’s railcars are designed for a 1,520 mm gauge. Despite this technical discrepancy, Astana had been seeking to expand freight operations along this corridor. In February 2025, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Tehran, Ontalap Onalbayev, met with Jabbar Ali Zakaria, head of the Iranian Railway Organization, to discuss plans to increase annual transit freight from 275,000 tons (2024) to 5 million tons. Following the escalation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, Kazakhstan is now compelled to evaluate alternative logistics routes, Zhumangarin noted. “We have contingency options; we can route shipments through Georgia or use Chinese ports. This adds complexity to logistics, but if long-term consequences arise, we will adapt and support our business community. It’s too early to make firm predictions,” he stated. Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with Iran totaled approximately $350 million in 2024, with trade reaching $120 million in the first five months of 2025. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, in response to recent U.S. airstrikes in Iran, Central Asian nations, including Kazakhstan, have urged all parties to pursue diplomatic solutions and avoid any further escalation.