Hydropower - The Times Of Central Asia

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Central Asia Water Cooperation

Water in Central Asia: Can the Five States Reach an Agreement?

Central Asia is entering a period of growing water stress, as climate change makes supplies less predictable while demand continues to rise. Populations are growing, economies require new energy and industrial capacity, glaciers are shrinking, and agriculture continues to consume most of the available water. The region’s two main rivers – the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – cross national borders, making it impossible for any one country to solve the problem on its own. After decades of disputes, Central Asian states are increasingly trying to manage water jointly. In 2026, that cooperation has produced further practical steps, from plans for automated water accounting in the Syr Darya basin to new proposals for reforming regional mechanisms. The question now is whether the five countries can agree on rules when their water needs remain different. Water and Energy: An Old Conflict The structural conflict is rooted in the region’s geography. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are upstream states and use water in part for hydropower generation, particularly in winter. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are downstream and need large volumes in summer during the irrigation season. During the Soviet period, a centralized exchange system was in place: upstream republics stored water in winter and released it in summer, receiving energy resources in return. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, that unified mechanism disappeared. Interstate agreements preserved a degree of coordination but did not eliminate the tension between upstream energy needs and downstream agricultural interests. Climate change is now adding another layer to the problem. Retreating glaciers in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains are altering the timing and reliability of river flows, while populations and consumption are increasing. Countries across the region are planning new power plants, industrial facilities, mining projects, and data centers, while agriculture remains the largest consumer of water. From Seasonal Quotas to Joint Management The main formal mechanism for coordinating river allocations remains the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC), established in 1992. Through it, countries coordinate water withdrawal limits and reservoir operating regimes in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. In late 2025, the countries agreed on water allocations for 2026: for the Amu Darya, the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 was around 55.4 billion cubic meters, while the Syr Darya allocation for the non-growing season was approximately 4.2 billion cubic meters. The five-state framework does not, however, cover every major user of the Amu Darya. Afghanistan is outside the regional allocation system, while its Qosh Tepa Canal, now under construction, has added another source of uncertainty over future downstream flows. Such agreements keep the shared system functioning, but many decisions are still made ahead of each new season. Climate change and rising demand require a longer-term model. In February of this year, Kazakhstan proposed developing a Central Asian Framework Convention on Water Use, while joint infrastructure projects, including Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarata-1 hydropower plant with the participation of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are gradually adding shared economic interests...

Power Grid

Central Asia Electricity Demand Surges in Summer Power Reckoning

At 5:22 p.m. on July 20, after days of extreme heat, Uzbekistan's electricity system hit its highest load on record. Air conditioners were running on overdrive across the country as demand reached 14.2 gigawatts. Over the full day, consumers used 301.9 million kWh, almost 11% more than the previous year's summer peak. The pressure was visible elsewhere. In Kyrgyzstan, electricity consumption jumped 18% year-on-year on July 19. Parts of Bishkek and the Chui Region lost power for periods of up to two hours as operators tried to stop overloaded equipment from failing. In Almaty, where temperatures reached 40°C, 35 repair crews were deployed as record demand triggered faults across parts of the city's electricity network. Central Asia has spent years preparing for power shortages during freezing winters. July demonstrated that 40°C-plus summer days can now pose a different version of the same problem. The Demand Problem Governments across Central Asia have largely approached energy shortages from the supply side: more generation, new plants, stronger transmission, and greater investment. The summer peak exposed another weakness, however: demand is rising faster than many networks can comfortably absorb it. The pressure comes from new apartment blocks, shopping centers, construction sites, cooling systems, and the rapid spread of air conditioning. In Tashkent, Almaty, Bishkek, and other expanding cities, hotter summers also intensify the urban heat-island effect as concrete and glass retain heat and increase cooling demand. Much of the region's electricity infrastructure was built for a different pattern of consumption. That makes demand-side management increasingly important alongside new generation. Building another plant increases the amount of electricity available, but does little by itself to control when households and businesses consume it. Efficiency standards, more responsive tariffs, modern metering, and investment in distribution networks will become more important as peak demand rises. Four Systems, Shared Pressure Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are not facing identical problems, but July highlighted a common vulnerability: electricity systems are being asked to meet demand patterns for which they were not originally designed. Kazakhstan is pursuing major long-term additions to generation. In May 2026, it signed a $16.5 billion agreement with Russia's Rosatom for its first nuclear power plant near Lake Balkhash. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first reactor scheduled for commissioning in early 2034. For a coal-heavy system facing rising demand, the baseload argument is clear. But new capacity will take years to arrive. Tariff reform and modernization of existing infrastructure remain politically sensitive, especially if households are asked to pay more before improvements in reliability become visible. Uzbekistan is racing to add capacity, especially solar, in response to a rapidly growing population and dwindling gas reserves. Solar can reduce daytime strain and free gas for other uses, but it does not resolve the evening peak. Cooling demand can remain high after sunset, when solar output falls. Without sufficient storage, flexible backup generation, and stronger transmission and distribution networks, rapid additions of renewable capacity can coexist with local shortages and outages. Uzbekistan's July records underline the...

Rogun Dam

Italy Commits $150 Million to Tajikistans Rogun Hydropower Plant

The World Bank Group and Italy’s state-controlled development bank, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP), have signed a co-financing agreement to support construction of Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant, CDP and the World Bank’s office in Tajikistan said. The signing ceremony took place at Tajikistan’s Ministry of Finance in Dushanbe. Under the agreement, the Italian Climate Fund will provide $150 million for the project. The funds will be managed by CDP on behalf of Italy’s Ministry of Environment and Energy Security. CDP said the financing would support construction work on the right bank of the Rogun Dam. The Rogun Hydropower Plant is being financed by a consortium of 12 international development partners led by the World Bank Group, with CDP among its members. According to the World Bank, the project is expected to strengthen Tajikistan’s energy security while supporting the development of a cleaner energy market across Central Asia. The World Bank has already approved $650 million in grant financing for the project through the International Development Association (IDA). Located on the Vakhsh River, the Rogun Hydropower Plant is the centerpiece of the Vakhsh hydropower cascade. The project originated during the Soviet period, although construction of the current scheme was formally launched in 2017. Once completed, currently scheduled for 2033, the facility is projected to have an installed capacity of 3,780 MW. The World Bank estimates the plant will generate 14,400 gigawatt-hours of renewable electricity each year, equivalent to about 60% of Tajikistan’s current electricity production. The bank says the project will help reduce the country’s chronic winter electricity shortages, provide more reliable electricity for around 10 million people, create over 30,000 direct and indirect jobs, and enable electricity exports to neighboring Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Despite the new financing, the project continues to face criticism from environmental groups. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the World Bank’s Inspection Panel registered a complaint filed by the environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries on behalf of downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The coalition argued that the project’s environmental and social assessments were outdated and warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce water flows to the Amu Darya delta, accelerate desertification, increase soil salinity, and affect livelihoods downstream. In June 2025, the World Bank’s Inspection Panel recommended a full investigation. However, in November 2025, the Board of Executive Directors declined to authorize one, saying the complaint did not meet the mechanism’s technical eligibility criteria. Environmental groups criticized the decision. The World Bank has maintained that the project complies with its environmental and social safeguard framework, citing updated assessments, public consultations, and ongoing monitoring.

Electricity Shortages

Tajikistan Prepares for Another Winter Power Shortfall

Tajikistan is preparing for another autumn and winter in which electricity demand may outstrip supply. Network losses have fallen, and investment in hydropower continues, but officials say the seasonal imbalance between generation and consumption will persist. Mahmadumar Asozoda, chairman of state-owned power company Barki Tojik, said the imbalance would persist through the colder months. Asked whether electricity rationing would return, he did not rule it out. Tajikistan generates almost all of its electricity from hydropower, leaving supply tied to seasonal river flows. Output rises during the warmer months, when the country can meet domestic demand and export surplus electricity. In winter, river flows decline as electricity use increases for heating, creating a recurring shortfall. To cover part of the winter shortfall, Tajikistan plans to import electricity from Uzbekistan again. The two countries use a seasonal exchange: Uzbekistan supplies power in autumn and winter, and Tajikistan returns an equivalent volume during summer. Tajikistan imported 306 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) last winter, down from 350 million kWh a year earlier. Asozoda said the countries expect to sign a new agreement before the next autumn-winter season. Imports can ease the shortage, but they do not remove Tajikistan's dependence on hydropower or the winter drop in output. The seasonal arrangement with Uzbekistan gives Tajikistan access to power when domestic generation is lowest. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has signed a 20-year agreement to buy electricity from Tajikistan. Deliveries are expected to depend on additional generating capacity at the Rogun Hydropower Plant. The Nurek Reservoir stood at 888.21 meters on July 13, but Energy and Water Resources Minister Daler Juma said Tajikistan was experiencing low water levels. The country has reduced electricity exports and is retaining more water in its reservoirs for winter. Losses in the electricity system fell during the first half of 2026. At Barki Tojik's generating facilities, losses were 0.32% of output, down 0.07 percentage points from a year earlier. Losses in high-voltage transmission networks fell to 2.96%, while distribution losses dropped from 17.93% to 12.42%. Barki Tojik generated 8.89 billion kWh during the period, 2.7 million kWh less than in the first half of 2025. Hydropower plants supplied 7.93 billion kWh, while thermal plants produced 964 million kWh. The utility also bought 2.7 billion kWh from independent producers in Tajikistan and abroad, with Sangtuda-1 supplying 1.48 billion kWh. Rogun and Sangtuda-2 supplied 667.2 million kWh and 474.2 million kWh, respectively. Demand continues to rise as Tajikistan's population grows and industrial production expands, President Emomali Rahmon said in December 2025. The World Bank expects Rogun to help meet domestic needs and reduce recurring winter cuts. Rahmon has said rationing should end in 2027, when the third generating unit is scheduled to enter service, although the World Bank projects full completion in 2033. For the coming winter, Tajikistan is conserving reservoir water and arranging imports from Uzbekistan, but Asozoda's comments leave open the possibility of renewed rationing.

Water Management

Tajikistan’s Electricity Losses Add Pressure to Water and Climate Agenda

Tajikistan’s aging power grid has become part of the country’s water and climate policy. The issue returned to the agenda of European Union-Tajikistan cooperation on July 3, when the two sides held a development cooperation meeting in Dushanbe. Energy and water were included in the Global Gateway agenda, while other talks addressed transport and energy infrastructure, the digital economy, water-resource management, and strategic raw materials. Tajikistan gets nearly 98% of its electricity from hydropower. That gives the country a low-carbon power mix, while tying electricity supply to river flows, snowmelt, reservoirs, and glacier change. Losses in the power system add pressure to that link. Each kilowatt-hour lost in transmission or distribution must still be generated. In Tajikistan, that usually means more water passing through hydropower plants or imported electricity when reservoir levels are low. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has focused on concessional funding for loss-reduction projects. After a May meeting between Energy Minister Daler Juma and Holger Wiefel, the EBRD’s head in Tajikistan, the energy ministry put the aim plainly: “The sides discussed attracting concessional financing for projects aimed at reducing electricity losses and improving the efficiency of the country’s energy system.” Officials also discussed private investment. Hydropower plants in the Zarafshan basin and solar plants were discussed as well. No new financing has been announced from those discussions. The immediate context is an existing EBRD- and EU-backed program for the distribution network. The Times of Central Asia previously reported in April that Tajikistan would receive nearly €49.6 million from the EBRD to reduce electricity losses. The package combines a €28 million loan with grants and technical assistance for work in nine branches of the distribution network in Sughd and Khatlon. First Deputy Finance Minister Yusuf Majidi said the project would reduce energy losses, replace worn-out infrastructure, install modern meters, and improve billing and revenue collection. The EBRD project file gives the total project cost as €43 million. It includes up to €28 million in EBRD financing and a €15 million EU co-investment grant through the Asia Pacific Investment Facility. The project targets automatic billing and metering systems in nine networks of the Bokhtar, Kulob, and Guliston branches of Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq. The bank says the project is aimed at reducing high inefficiency and technical losses in Tajikistan’s power distribution network. Distribution losses fell from 19.2% in 2024 to 15.6% in 2025. Even after that fall, more than 3.1 billion kWh were lost in 2025. Officials linked the reduction to smart meters and digital metering. President Emomali Rahmon put the issue in direct terms in a late 2023 parliamentary address. “Our electricity losses are about 4 billion kWh,” he said, adding: “If we prevent this, then there will be enough electricity for everyone.” That comment predates the 2025 improvement, but it still explains why loss reduction has become part of the environmental case for energy-sector financing. Cutting losses can free up electricity without new generation and reduce pressure on winter imports and hydropower reservoirs. Reuters reported...

Kazarman Hydropower Cascade

Turkish Company Launches Construction of $3 Billion Hydropower Cascade in Kyrgyzstan

Construction of the Kazarman cascade of hydroelectric power plants on Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn River officially began on June 25, marking one of the country’s largest energy infrastructure projects since independence. The project, located in the Jalal-Abad region, includes three hydropower plants, Ala-Buga, Kara-Bulun-1, and Kara-Bulun-2, with a combined installed capacity of 912 megawatts and expected annual electricity generation of more than 3.75 billion kilowatt-hours. The cascade is being developed under an investment agreement with Orta Asya Investment Holding, a subsidiary of Turkey’s İhlas Holding, with total investments estimated at $3 billion. At the official launch ceremony, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov described the Kazarman cascade as one of the largest energy projects in the country’s modern history. Japarov said Kyrgyzstan is accelerating hydropower and renewable energy development to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on electricity imports. “Without developing the electric power industry, it is impossible to ensure the country’s sustainable development,” Japarov said. He noted that Kyrgyzstan imported about 3 billion kWh of electricity during winter in 2020, a figure that has now risen to 4 billion kWh, reflecting growing domestic demand. According to Japarov, electricity consumption continues to outpace new generation capacity despite ongoing construction of small and medium-sized hydropower plants, as well as solar and wind energy facilities. The president said the increase in demand is driven by rapid industrial expansion, with hundreds of new factories and social infrastructure facilities commissioned annually in recent years. Construction of the Kazarman cascade is scheduled for completion by 2031. Japarov said that once the Kazarman cascade and the strategic Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant become operational, Kyrgyzstan expects to fully cover domestic electricity demand and begin exporting surplus energy to neighboring countries. Kambarata-1, which is being developed jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, will have an installed capacity of 1,860 MW and annual generation of 5.6 billion kWh. In addition to the Kazarman project, İhlas Holding is also involved in building a 250 MW gas-fired combined heat and power plant in Bishkek. The company is further expanding its energy footprint in Kyrgyzstan through the Suusamyr-Kokomeren hydropower cascade, for which the Eurasian Development Bank and Orta Asya Investment Holding signed a feasibility study agreement in September 2025. That project will include three hydropower plants with a combined capacity of 1,305 MW. Under the agreements, Orta Asya Investment Holding will operate the facilities for 20 years, while Kyrgyzstan guarantees the purchase of the generated electricity.