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Economic Growth

EBRD Names Tajikistan One of Central Asia’s Fastest-Growing Economies

Tajikistan continues to record one of the strongest economic growth rates in Central Asia, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in its June 2026 Regional Economic Prospects report. The EBRD estimates that Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, supported by growth in trade, transport and communications, along with strong manufacturing growth and higher electricity generation. Fixed capital investment rose by 34.2% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, one of the strongest performances in the region. For comparison, fixed capital investment in neighboring Kyrgyzstan rose by 25.5% during the same period, while Kazakhstan recorded growth of 6.4%. The bank attributed Tajikistan’s strong investment activity partly to public spending commitments, including the Rogun hydropower project, one of the country’s flagship infrastructure developments. Once completed, Rogun is expected to become a key part of Tajikistan’s power system and a major source of electricity exports to neighboring countries. The EBRD also noted strong growth in manufacturing, which increased by 29.6% year-on-year in January-March 2026. Electricity generation rose by 7.5%, while mining output contracted by 9.8%. Officials at Tajikistan’s State Committee on Investment and State Property Management said the figures reflect sustained interest in the country’s economy and create additional opportunities to attract domestic and foreign investors into priority sectors. Tajikistan has increasingly positioned itself as a regional energy hub, particularly through hydropower. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the country has the largest hydropower potential in Central Asia. Tajikistan’s annual hydropower potential is estimated at 527 billion kilowatt-hours, while the country accounts for a large share of Central Asia’s water resources. Despite that, much of its hydropower capacity remains untapped. International industry estimates suggest that only around 4% of Tajikistan’s hydropower potential has been developed, leaving significant room for future investment and expansion.

Hydropower

Tajikistan Uses Only 5% of Its Hydropower Potential

Tajikistan is using only a fraction of its vast hydropower resources despite possessing the largest hydropower potential in Central Asia, according to the State Committee on Investment and State Property Management. The committee said Tajikistan remains the regional leader in hydropower resources and ranks among the world’s leading countries in terms of renewable water-energy potential. Although most of Tajikistan’s hydropower potential remains undeveloped, hydropower already dominates the country’s electricity mix. Tajikistan currently generates around 98% of its electricity from renewable sources, primarily hydropower. The figures underscore both the scale of Tajikistan’s renewable energy resources and the challenges the country faces in attracting the investment needed to fully develop them. Significant untapped potential also exists in other renewable energy sectors. The country’s economically viable solar energy capacity is estimated at 369,600 megawatts, although development of solar generation remains limited. Wind power resources are estimated at 4,485 megawatts, but the sector is still at an early stage of development. Despite the limited use of much of its renewable energy potential, Tajikistan already generates approximately 98% of its electricity from renewable sources, primarily hydropower. The government aims to increase that share further. Under the country’s national energy development strategy, Tajikistan plans to generate all of its electricity from renewable sources by 2032 and achieve the status of a fully “green” country by 2037. Officials also highlighted the sector’s considerable investment potential, citing opportunities in hydropower development, solar and wind generation, energy infrastructure modernization, energy storage systems, and the export of clean electricity to regional markets. Tajikistan has increasingly positioned renewable energy development as a cornerstone of its economic strategy, seeking to leverage its abundant natural resources to strengthen energy security, attract foreign investment, and expand regional electricity exports.

Water Security

Megaprojects Instead of Quotas: How Central Asia’s Water Diplomacy Is Changing

Central Asia’s water politics are moving beyond Soviet-era quotas. As glaciers in the Tien Shan retreat and climate pressure increases, river management has become a question of energy security, food production, and regional stability. The Soviet-era system of river-water allocation has reached its limits, forcing Central Asian states to look beyond traditional negotiations and toward joint ownership of strategic water infrastructure. Even as regional governments learn to cooperate more closely, a new challenge is emerging on Central Asia’s southern frontier, one that could disrupt the region’s hydrological balance. The Illusion of Control Formally, Central Asia’s water resources are governed through a network of interstate institutions. The principal mechanisms are the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) and the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). On paper, the system appears effective. Twice a year, ahead of the spring-summer irrigation season and the autumn-winter period, representatives of the region’s countries meet to approve water-withdrawal quotas from the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river basins. At the end of 2025, for example, officials meeting in Ashgabat agreed on water allocations for 2026, setting total withdrawals from the Amu Darya at nearly 55.4 billion cubic meters. This framework has helped prevent open interstate conflicts by providing a permanent forum for dialogue. However, its foundation remains the 1992 Almaty Agreement, which essentially preserved a Soviet-era quota system designed for a single centrally planned state rather than a group of independent countries with competing interests. The greatest weakness of the system is the absence of any meaningful enforcement mechanism. If one country exceeds its agreed allocation during a drought year, there are no legal or economic penalties. Disputes are instead resolved through emergency negotiations between ministries or, in some cases, direct interventions by heads of state. A system dependent on political goodwill and personal relationships is increasingly fragile in an era of climate stress. Turning Water Disputes Into Joint Investments As the quota system shows signs of strain, Central Asian countries have begun experimenting with a more pragmatic approach: shared ownership of infrastructure. The central paradox of the Syr Darya basin is that upstream and downstream countries need water at different times of the year. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which control the river’s headwaters, require releases in the winter to generate electricity and heat their cities. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, meanwhile, need that same water in summer to irrigate millions of hectares of farmland. Winter releases often flow downstream when demand is low, while shortages emerge during the peak agricultural season. The proposed solution is the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant on Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn River, a project now estimated to cost around $4.2 billion. What makes the project unusual is its ownership structure. Under a 2024 agreement, Kyrgyzstan will hold a 34% stake, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will each own 33%. By investing billions of dollars in infrastructure located outside their territory, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are effectively purchasing seats at the decision-making table. As shareholders, they gain a direct role in determining reservoir operations, helping ensure water is...

Rogun Dam

Inside Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam, the Mega-Project Built to Power a Nation

“Building a hydroelectric power plant is a responsibility for our country!” Displayed in Tajik at the entrance to the Rogun construction site, deep in the mountains of Tajikistan, the slogan captures the significance of what has become the most ambitious infrastructure project in the country’s history - and one of the largest hydropower developments in the world. Nearly fifty years after the Soviet authorities launched construction in 1976, the mega-project is finally entering a decisive phase. Long delayed by the collapse of the Soviet Union, the civil war of the 1990s, and the economic struggles of Central Asia’s poorest country, the project has gained renewed momentum over the past decade. After a two-hour drive through the mountains east of Dushanbe, the scale of the site gradually comes into view. Located more than 1,300 meters above sea level, Rogun is far more than a dam. The complex includes dozens of kilometers of tunnels, diversion canals, underground power stations, and an extensive network of technical infrastructure carved into the rock. [caption id="attachment_49947" align="aligncenter" width="1365"] Turbines in the process of being built[/caption] Once completed, according to current project plans, the structure will rise to 335 meters, making it the tallest dam in the world, Tajik officials proudly note. For now, it stands at approximately 140 meters. “This is where the Vakhsh River flows,” says Anvar Rahmonov, Production Director at Rogun HPP, standing on a ridge overlooking the future reservoir. [caption id="attachment_49948" align="aligncenter" width="2048"] Anvar Rahmonov, Production Director at Rogun HPP[/caption] Fed by glaciers in the Pamir Mountains, the river is diverted through underground galleries that currently power two 600-megawatt turbines. Below, dozens of trucks move continuously across the site while workers labor across different sections of the project. The deep blue waters of the future reservoir - designed to hold more than 13 billion cubic meters of water - contrast sharply with the surrounding red-earth mountains and the constant movement of heavy machinery. The project remains far from complete. Four additional turbines are still under construction. Once fully operational, the plant will have a total installed capacity of 3,600 megawatts, according to Tajik project officials, comparable to that of a nuclear power station. Ending Chronic Energy Shortages For a country of just over ten million people that continues to face electricity shortages every winter, the stakes are enormous. Despite possessing one of Central Asia’s largest hydropower potentials, Tajikistan still suffers from a chronic energy deficit. During the winter months, the country lacks roughly a quarter of the electricity needed to meet domestic demand, resulting in rationing and power restrictions across much of rural Tajikistan. “Thanks to this project, Tajikistan will be able to achieve energy independence,” says Andres Ricaldi, an engineer with the Franco-Belgian consultancy Tractebel, which is involved in the project. In the substation, a diagram of the power lines supplying the different regions is shown. [caption id="attachment_49946" align="aligncenter" width="2048"] Substation zone[/caption] Yet Rogun’s ambitions extend well beyond the domestic market. “The meaning of the Rogun Dam has changed,” explains Artemy Kalinovsky,...

Green Energy

Tajikistan Links Green Energy Push to Regional Power Exports

Tajikistan is positioning renewable energy and regional electricity trade as central to its long-term economic strategy, as Dushanbe seeks to build on its hydropower base while reducing exposure to climate- and seasonal-supply risks. The message was delivered by Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources Sharif Makhmadzoda during a ministerial dialogue on the renewable energy transition in Central Asia. The session, titled International Cooperation for a Sustainable and Diversified Energy Future, was held as part of the Baku Energy Forum. According to Makhmadzoda, the energy transition has become one of Tajikistan’s key long-term development priorities. He said the shift toward renewable energy is not only about meeting international climate commitments, but also about strengthening energy security, supporting industrial development, and improving living standards. Tajikistan continues to place hydropower at the center of its energy strategy. Makhmadzoda noted that approximately 95% of the country’s electricity is generated by hydroelectric power plants, making the republic one of the world’s leading producers of green energy. Makhmadzoda also stressed the need to diversify the country’s energy mix, citing climate change, glacier melt, seasonal changes in river flows, and rising domestic electricity demand. Against this backdrop, the government sees modernization of the energy sector and the expansion of other renewable energy sources as increasingly important. Particular attention is being paid to the development of solar and wind power generation. Regional cooperation was another key theme of Makhmadzoda’s remarks. According to the deputy minister, Tajikistan’s renewed participation in the Central Asian Unified Energy System could play an important role in creating a regional market for clean electricity. CASA-1000 is designed to carry up to 1,300 megawatts of surplus electricity from Central Asia to high-demand markets in South Asia, linking Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The comments underline a wider challenge for Tajikistan. Hydropower gives the country one of the region’s cleanest power systems, but it also leaves the energy sector heavily exposed to water availability, climate pressures, and seasonal demand peaks.

Caspian Green Energy Corridor

Kyrgyzstan Eyes Role in Trans-Caspian Green Power Route

Kyrgyzstan has signaled interest in taking part in the Central Asia-Azerbaijan Green Energy Corridor, a regional initiative aimed at expanding renewable electricity links across the Caspian region. The issue was discussed during a meeting between Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov and Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev on the sidelines of Baku Energy Week on June 1. The ministers said the project would help integrate regional energy systems, strengthen energy security, and facilitate access to new markets for electricity generated from renewable sources. Ibraev said Kyrgyzstan’s hydropower potential and its role within the Unified Energy System of Central Asia made it a logical participant in the initiative. He added that Kyrgyzstan’s involvement would enhance the sustainability and reliability of green electricity supplies along the Caspian route. Kyrgyzstan currently faces seasonal electricity shortages and relies on imports to meet domestic demand. However, authorities expect the country to generate significant exportable surpluses once several large hydropower projects, including the long-delayed Kambarata-1 dam, are completed. The ministers also discussed fuel cooperation. The Kyrgyz side proposed increasing imports of Azerbaijani diesel as the country seeks alternatives amid rising prices for fuel traditionally supplied from Russia. The Central Asia-Azerbaijan Green Energy Corridor is one of several flagship projects aimed at strengthening energy connectivity between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and European markets. Speaking at the Investment Forum on Energy Transition in Central Asia, held during Baku Energy Week and organized jointly by the International Renewable Energy Agency and Azerbaijan’s Energy Ministry, Shahbazov described the initiative as a key component of regional energy integration. According to Shahbazov, a strategic partnership agreement previously signed by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan laid the foundation for the development of a Trans-Caspian Energy Corridor. “The establishment of the strategically important Trans-Caspian energy corridor, which will interconnect the power systems of our countries, is fully aligned with the key priorities of this policy,” Shahbazov said. He added that the project could also strengthen the Middle Corridor by creating a green energy link connecting Europe with Asia and China via the Caspian Sea. Shahbazov said the feasibility study for the Caspian-Black Sea-Europe Green Energy Corridor is expected to be completed by July 2026, while the feasibility study for the Central Asia-Azerbaijan Green Energy Corridor is scheduled for completion in May 2027.