Middle East - The Times Of Central Asia

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Aviation Industry

Iran War Redraws Air Routes, Boosting Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are emerging as potential beneficiaries of disruptions in the global aviation fuel market as tensions around Iran force airlines to reroute flights and rethink transit hubs. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, including heightened risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has led to sharp increases in energy prices and supply disruptions. Gas prices in the EU have risen by 70%, and oil by 60%, with additional costs reaching €14 billion. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making any disruption critically significant for global markets. The aviation industry has been among the hardest hit sectors. According to industry sources cited by Bloomberg, Europe is expected to have sufficient jet fuel supplies in the short term, but stocks are under pressure, and supply risks could emerge if the conflict continues. The cost of jet fuel has risen from about $742 to more than $1,700 per ton in recent weeks in some markets. This increase is outpacing the rise in oil prices, intensifying pressure on airlines. As reported by The Telegraph, citing data from Cirium, around 7% of scheduled flights were canceled at the peak of recent disruptions, equivalent to more than 7,000 departures, compared with about 4.7% a year earlier. Airlines are responding by cutting flight schedules and revising their business models. Lufthansa, for example, is considering temporarily grounding part of its fleet. According to CEO Carsten Spohr, fuel shortages are likely to be felt first outside Europe, where supply chains are more vulnerable. At the same time, airfares have already risen by 15-20%, beginning to dampen demand. As passenger demand softens and costs rise, carriers are balancing route cuts with the need to maintain key markets. Fuel Costs Drive Route Shifts According to Sergey Agibalov, consulting director at Argus in the CIS, significant changes are also occurring in the geography of international air travel. Major Middle Eastern hubs, such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, have seen a decline in transit traffic amid safety concerns and are operating below normal capacity on key routes. Agibalov argues that this creates a window of opportunity for alternative routes between Europe and Asia, including Istanbul, Addis Ababa, and hubs in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. “Airports in Central Asia and the South Caucasus are now attractive not only to passengers, but also to airlines. Disruptions to Middle Eastern jet fuel exports linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz have led to a sharp rise in fuel prices globally. This increase is outpacing the rise in oil prices, intensifying pressure on airlines. Recent industry data shows prices reaching as high as $1,600–1,800 per ton in some markets. Under these conditions, many airlines have begun optimizing their flight schedules; even if fuel is available, flying has become very expensive,” he noted. Against this backdrop, airports in Almaty, Astana, and Baku are seeing increased traffic and stronger airline interest. Argus estimates suggest volumes are already rising in Baku, as routes across Central...

Fuel prices

Central Asia Avoids Fuel Shock as Global Pressures Build

Central Asia has so far avoided the immediate fuel shocks spreading across much of the world following the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran. There are no lines at gas stations, no visible shortages, and no signs of panic buying. But that stability sits within a rapidly tightening global market, where disruptions in Asia and policy responses in Europe are reshaping fuel flows in ways the region will struggle to avoid. Across Southeast Asia, governments are already taking precautionary steps. Some state agencies and private firms are shifting parts of their workforce to remote work to reduce fuel consumption and prepare for potential price spikes and logistics disruptions, while Thailand is preparing contingency measures, including possible fuel rationing. China, one of Asia’s largest suppliers of refined fuels, has moved to restrict exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in an effort to prevent domestic shortages linked to the war. The move is expected to tighten supplies across Asia, especially for countries that rely on Chinese fuel imports. China supplied about one-third of Australia’s jet fuel last year, highlighting the wider regional impact, and roughly half of the Philippines’ and Bangladesh’s in 2024. Vietnam has already warned airlines to prepare for flight reductions in April due to the risk of shortages caused by these export restrictions. Indonesia is also imposing limits on fuel sales. Fuel-related pressures have begun to emerge in Europe as well. Poland has introduced tax measures aimed at reducing fuel prices, with the government saying this will lower prices for consumers. Slovenia, meanwhile, has introduced significant restrictions on fuel consumption. Under new rules, private motorists are limited to purchasing a maximum of 50 liters per day, while businesses and farmers may purchase up to 200 liters daily. The combined effect of war-driven energy shocks and renewed tariff barriers is raising global costs and adding pressure across trade, transport, and inflation. Against this backdrop, Central Asia’s apparent stability is misleading. It is highly unlikely that import-dependent states such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will be as well protected as Kazakhstan, which may benefit in the short term from higher crude prices. Starting April 1, Russia is banning gasoline exports in an effort to stabilize its own domestic market. Russia is a key fuel supplier to Central Asia. However, according to assurances from the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the temporary export ban will not affect supplies to Uzbekistan. Deliveries under intergovernmental agreements are expected to continue, ensuring that at least part of the region’s supply remains uninterrupted. In Kyrgyzstan, despite recent developments, fuel prices and supplies remain relatively stable. The government is considering lowering taxes or temporarily waiving excise duties for fuel importers should the crisis continue. Information from Turkmenistan is difficult to verify independently. Despite reports of fuel shortages at gas stations last year, official media are now indicating a significant increase in domestic gasoline production. The production plan for January-February 2026 was reportedly fulfilled at 122.7%, according to Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Guvancha...

Caspian

Caspian Escalation Raises Stakes for Central Asia

Central Asia, which has increasingly sought to present itself as a coordinated actor on the global political stage, has until recently maintained a cautious, non-aligned stance regarding the escalation in the Middle East. However, attacks affecting infrastructure in the Caspian region have altered the diplomatic balance. The Caspian Sea is a critical transit zone for Central Asia, linking Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and onward to European and Middle Eastern markets. It forms part of key east–west and north–south trade corridors that have gained importance since Russia’s war in Ukraine disrupted traditional transit routes. In recent years, regional dynamics have also been shaped by Azerbaijan’s growing engagement with Central Asian states, including its formal inclusion in the expanded Central Asian consultative format, which has effectively evolved from the C5 into the C6. Baku has played an important role in regional connectivity. It has developed close relations with both Turkey and Israel, factors that influence geopolitical calculations in the Caspian basin, which directly borders Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. This growing alignment has reinforced efforts to develop the Middle Corridor across the Caspian, linking Central Asia to Europe via the South Caucasus. Turkey maintains political, economic, and cultural influence in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan through the Organization of Turkic States. Russian political discourse has at times portrayed this cooperation as part of a broader pan-Turkic geopolitical project, a characterization widely dismissed by officials and analysts in Central Asia. Nevertheless, Astana and Baku continue to maintain strong relations with Ankara, a development that has periodically caused concern in Moscow. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan has also strengthened ties with Gulf states. Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia have become significant investors in the country’s economy. In this context, Iranian attacks on Gulf states not directly involved in the conflict have shaped Astana’s diplomatic positioning during the current crisis. Reports of drone attacks widely blamed on Iran targeting the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan have further heightened regional tensions. At the initial stage of the escalation, Kazakhstan’s response was largely limited to diplomatic contacts with regional leaders. At the same time, several Central Asian countries, along with Azerbaijan, expressed concern over the humanitarian consequences of the conflict and began dispatching aid to Iran. Azerbaijan sent nearly 30 tons of food and medical supplies on March 10, followed by another 82 tons of humanitarian aid on March 18. Uzbekistan delivered approximately 120 tons of humanitarian supplies, including flour, vegetable oil, sugar, and canned food, according to regional media reports. Turkmenistan also sent humanitarian aid consisting of medicines, medical supplies, and other goods, primarily intended for children. The Tajik government reported sending a convoy of 110 heavy trucks carrying humanitarian cargo to Iran, with a total weight of 3,610 tons. The diplomatic environment shifted further after Israeli air strikes on March 18 targeting Iranian naval facilities in the Caspian Sea. According to Israeli military statements cited by international media, the targets included a major port of the Iranian Navy, where, reportedly, "dozens of ships were destroyed,”...

Peace Talks

Tokayev Proposes Turkestan as Venue for Middle East Peace Talks

Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has called for immediate negotiations to resolve the conflict in the Middle East and proposed the city of Turkestan as a venue for talks. Tokayev made the remarks during a visit to the Turkestan region, warning that escalating conflicts worldwide, including the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, are harming global stability and trade conditions for countries not directly involved in the hostilities. He said the situation in the Middle East has reached a critical stage and that further escalation by Iran, the United States, or Israel would benefit none of the parties. “First and foremost, I call for an end to armed attacks on civilian and economic targets. Then it is necessary to sit down at the negotiating table,” Tokayev said. The president said Kazakhstan is not seeking to mediate in the conflict but is prepared to offer its territory as a neutral platform for negotiations. “I believe such a dialogue could be organized in Turkestan. This would demonstrate the goodwill of the Kazakh people,” Tokayev added, noting that the final decision depends on the parties involved. The choice of Turkestan is both geographic and symbolic. The city is regarded as one of Central Asia’s spiritual centers and an important destination for pilgrims. It is home to the mausoleum of Khoja Ahmed Yasawi, a prominent Sufi poet and thinker. The structure, commissioned in the 14th century by Amir Timur, adds historical resonance to Tokayev’s proposal and is included on the UNESCO World Heritage List. Turkestan’s historical legacy and religious significance make it a potentially neutral and symbolically meaningful setting for peace talks. The proposal also reflects Kazakhstan’s long-standing effort to position itself as a neutral diplomatic platform. Astana has previously hosted international negotiations, including talks on Syria, and has sought to build a reputation as a venue for dialogue between competing powers. Offering Turkestan, rather than the capital, reinforces both the initiative's symbolic and political neutrality. Tokayev’s proposal comes amid continued escalation in hostilities involving Iran and a U.S.-Israel coalition, which intensified in late February following exchanges of missile strikes and air attacks. For Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states, the conflict carries direct implications. Iran’s status as a Caspian littoral country raises additional security concerns for Kazakhstan’s western regions in the event of further escalation. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on disruptions to regional supply chains and transport routes. Volatility in global oil prices and the risk of disruption across Caspian-linked trade routes add further pressure, underscoring how conflicts far beyond Central Asia’s borders can quickly translate into economic and security risks for the region.

Organization of Turkic States (OTS)

Informal OTS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Tests Limits of Turkic Coordination

Escalating tensions linked to the widening conflict in the Middle East have tested the political cohesion of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), according to Kazakh political commentator Dzhanibek Suleyev. Recent incidents affecting both Azerbaijan and Turkey — including drone strikes in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and a missile intercepted by Turkish air defenses — have raised security concerns across the wider region. Suleyev argues that developments of this scale might normally prompt an urgent summit of heads of state. Instead, Turkey convened an informal meeting of foreign ministers and senior diplomatic representatives from OTS member states. The gathering took place on March 7, when officials convened at the invitation of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. According to Turkish media, ministers later met with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during their visit. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia, Suleyev drew attention to how the meeting was covered in the media of Central Asian member states. “In the Uzbek press, coverage was limited, and even on the website of their Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there is not a single word about the informal summit of OTS foreign ministers. Kazakhstan, moreover, was represented not by Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev but by his deputy Alibek Bakayev. Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry issued four notes about the trip of its minister Jeenbek Kulubaev to Istanbul, three of which were devoted to the summit, but without any particular details,” Suleyev said. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry published a short summary of the meeting, noting in broad terms that representatives discussed cooperation among Turkic states and regional developments. According to Suleyev, the joint statement adopted after the meeting was difficult to find outside of Azerbaijani media. One of the few outlets to publish the text in full was Azerbaijan’s APA news agency. Much of the statement focused on the incidents affecting Azerbaijan and Turkey, stressing that “any threat to the security of OTS member states causes concern for the entire Organization… The ministers strongly condemned the attacks carried out from the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran against the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of the Republic of Azerbaijan, including strikes against civilian facilities and the territory of the Republic of Turkey,” the statement continued. “The rest of the statement boils down to destabilization in the Middle East could lead to a global economic crisis, the Palestinian conflict must be resolved taking into account UN resolutions, and so on,” Suleyev told TCA. One notable event during the meeting was the foreign ministers’ reception by President Erdoğan. Official summaries released by participating governments described the discussion in diplomatic terms. “Kazakh sources wrote that ‘prospects for the development of cooperation within the framework of Turkic cooperation were discussed,’” Suleyev said. Kyrgyz statements used similar language, stating that the “President of Turkey… noted the importance of regular dialogue on current regional and international issues and expressed interest in further developing multilateral cooperation within the framework of the Organization.” “In short, these are streamlined diplomatic formulations without specific details,” Suleyev said. According to a press...

Middle East Crisis

Uzbekistan Repatriates Over 21,700 Citizens from Middle East

Uzbekistan has repatriated 21,712 citizens from several Middle Eastern countries as of 07:00 on March 9, the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said, as evacuation efforts continue amid regional instability. Most of those returned came from Saudi Arabia, where 17,963 citizens were brought back to Uzbekistan. Additional repatriations included 3,290 people from the United Arab Emirates, 378 from Qatar, 47 from Iran, 27 from Bahrain, and seven from Oman. The ministry said the return of Uzbek citizens is being carried out “systematically and in stages,” with authorities continuing to coordinate transport and logistics for those seeking to return. Officials noted that many repatriation flights are currently being organized through countries whose airspace remains open to civilian aviation. Uzbekistan’s evacuation reflects the scale of its citizens’ presence across the Gulf. In recent years, the country has expanded labor migration agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, sending thousands of workers into construction, hospitality, and service sectors. Saudi Arabia has also become a major destination for religious travel from Uzbekistan, with large annual flows of pilgrims traveling for the Hajj and Umrah. Kazakhstan has also evacuated citizens during the crisis, bringing 8,585 people home from Middle Eastern countries since the operation began. Central Asian citizens travel widely to Gulf states for work, tourism, and pilgrimage, leaving thousands affected when conflicts disrupt flights and close regional airspace. The number of returned citizens has risen steadily over the past several days. According to the foreign ministry, 19,347 Uzbek citizens had returned home as of 07:00 on March 8. Uzbek diplomatic missions in the region have also issued safety guidance to citizens who remain abroad. In a statement published by the Embassy of Uzbekistan in Israel, citizens were urged to follow official security instructions issued by local authorities. The embassy said red alerts issued by Israel’s civil defense authorities indicate a dangerous situation and require people to stay near protected shelters and immediately enter them if warning sirens sound. Blue alerts indicate that the threat has passed, and people may leave shelters. Other Central Asian countries have also organized evacuations of their citizens. According to Tajik media outlet Asia-Plus, more than 300 citizens of Tajikistan returned home on March 8 on two flights from Dubai. One charter flight brought 130 Tajik citizens to Dushanbe in the morning, while a later flight operated by Somon Air transported another 180 passengers. The charter operation was organized with support from the Tajik embassy in the United Arab Emirates, local authorities, and the airline Flydubai. About 550 Tajik citizens have returned home from Abu Dhabi and Dubai on charter flights in recent days amid the ongoing regional conflict.