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Diplomatic Renaissance: How Tokayev’s Visit to Mongolia Went

The recent state visit by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Mongolia, the first by a Kazakh president in 16 years, demonstrated an excellent approach to expanding Astana's strategic ties. After all, despite 32 years of diplomatic relations and a relatively extensive Kazakh diaspora in Mongolia, under the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Astana's ties with Ulaanbaatar were essentially put on hold. This pause in relations likely arose due to Mongolia's political reputation in the region. Protests often erupt in the country, sometimes becoming particularly violent. In 2008, when the Kazakh authorities justified their failures in the economy with the outbreak of the global economic crisis, a state of emergency was imposed in Mongolia for four days in July. The reason was violent opposition protests against the results of the parliamentary elections. Protesters smashed the headquarters of the ruling party and set fire to several buildings in the center of Ulaanbaatar, killing five people and injuring 300. For Mongolia, with its population of 3.4 million, this was a significant shock, as it was for its neighbors in the Eurasian region, where three leaders fell between 2003 and 2005 -- Eduard Shevardnadze in Georgia, Leonid Kuchma in Ukraine, and Askar Akayev in Kyrgyzstan. All this was declared in the region as an “export of revolutions,” building around this notion, a conspiracy theory about the machinations of the U.S. State Department and George Soros. Tokayev's state visit to Mongolia 16 years after Nursultan Nazarbayev refers to the Kazakh leader's key idea about the renaissance of Central Asia. Mongolia is no stranger to the region in one way or another. The main thing for Kazakhstan is the strong Kazakh diaspora, which exceeds 117,000 people. This is the largest national minority in Mongolia and the second largest ethnic group after the titular one. A Kazakh newspaper is published in Mongolia, some Kazakh TV channels are shown on television, and there is an hour of radio news in Kazakh. In short, the basis for strengthening relations is powerful. Tokayev and the president of Mongolia, Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, who received him, spoke in both narrow and extended formats about reaching the level of strategic partnership. Tokayev and Khurelsukh, even before the one-on-one meeting, had revitalized diplomatic and trade ties between Kazakhstan and Mongolia. Data from the Statistics Committee of the Ministry of National Economy of Kazakhstan provides evidence. Since 2017, there has been a steady decline in trade turnover between the countries. In 2017, its level was $74.8 million; in 2018 - $67.4 million; in 2019 - $59.9 million. In 2020, it fell to $29.3 million. COVID restrictions can explain such a sharp drop. In 2021, the turnover reached almost $61 million, but at the end of 2023, the trade volume jumped to $150 million. Therefore, when Tokayev said at a joint press briefing that he and the Mongolian president had agreed to turn over $500 million in the “foreseeable future,” this did not seem overly optimistic. The Kazakh delegation did not come empty-handed; during Tokayev's visit, the parties...

Kyrgyzstan and Russia Set to Expand Cooperation

On October 21, in Moscow, Akylbek Japarov, the Chairman of Kyrgyzstan's Cabinet of Ministers, and Mikhail Mishustin, the Chairman of the Russian Government, chaired a joint meeting of the governments of both countries. Japarov's visit was planned to coincide with the centenary of the formation of the Kara-Kyrgyz Autonomous Region, and also with the beginning of the Days of Culture of Kyrgyzstan in Russia. “The establishment of the Kara-Kyrgyz Autonomous Region in 1924 as part of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, followed by the formation of the Kyrgyz Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic in 1926 and later the Kyrgyz Soviet Socialist Republic in 1936, was of colossal importance for our people, becoming the foundation of the sovereign Kyrgyz Republic. The friendship between the Kyrgyz and Russian peoples has been forged over the centuries, has gone through difficult times, but has given many examples of devotion and loyalty,” Japarov said. Noting that Kyrgyz-Russian relations have elevated to the status of "deepened relations" of alliance and strategic partnership, Japarov stated: "We are very pleased that Russian private businesses and investors have paid attention to Kyrgyzstan's possibilities and have intensified their work. We are always open to Russian investments and are ready to provide maximum assistance in implementing investment proposals." Mishustin in turn expressed Russia’s interest in further developing bilateral cooperation in all areas. "During the first eight months of this year, [Kyrgyz-Russian] trade turnover has grown by 16 percent. The share of the ruble in mutual settlements has reached almost 90 percent. We want to maintain this trend to ensure stable and predictable conditions for doing business," Mishustin said.

Uzbek Company to Invest $1 Billion in Afghanistan’s Energy Sector

On October 10, the Ministry of Mines and Oil of Afghanistan signed a contract with a Uzbek company to implement gas exploration and production in the Tuti Maidan gas field in the Jawzjan province of  northern Afghanistan. The contract will be valid for ten years, during which about one billion dollars will be invested in Jawzjan's gas sector. The Minister of Mines and Oil of Afghanistan, Hidayatullah Badri, stated that gas reserves in Tuti Maidan cover an area of approximately 7,000 square kilometers and emphasizing its importance, said that the initiative is expected to significantly meet the country’s energy needs, increase national income, and create new jobs. According to Badri,  “In the first two years, the mentioned company will produce 100 megawatts of electricity from gas, which is a positive step towards increasing electricity supply.” In turn, Ismatilla Ergashev, Uzbekistan’s special representative for Afghanistan, noted that his country's investment in Afghanistan is crucial for improving economic conditions and creating jobs, saying, “We aim to implement Afghanistan’s economic potential to create jobs for millions of Afghans. Our goal is Afghanistan's economic revival and improving people's lives.” Following the United Nations General Assembly in September, during which Uzbekistan’s Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov emphasized that Afghanistan is a crucial part of Central Asia, and solving the Afghan issue is vital for the region’s stability and sustainable development, the minister held a meeting on October 9, with Abdul Ghafar Terawi, the new head of Afghanistan’s diplomatic mission in Tashkent. Previously, the issue of Afghan military aircraft remaining in Uzbekistan had caused protest from the Taliban.

Lukashenko Turns Up Charm After Kazakhstan Kerfuffle

In August, Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko drew a Kazakh rebuke after he criticized Kazakhstan for what he described as its tepid support for Russia. Lukashenko was a model of diplomatic etiquette on Tuesday, effusively praising Kazakhstan as a close ally during a ceremony at which he received credentials of foreign ambassadors. “Today there are practically no areas where we do not have common interests. Annual $1 billion trade turnover and successful projects in industrial interaction testify to the high dynamics of bilateral cooperation,” the longtime Belarusian ruler said of Kazakhstan. Lukashenko´s comments were reported by Belarus Today, a state-run media group. The Belarusian president also thanked Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for supporting Belarus when it became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional security group, earlier this year, according to Belarus Today. Kazakhstan was chair of the organization at the time. Things weren’t as convivial in August when Lukashenko, a backer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggested in an interview with Russian state television that Kazakhstan was exploiting Russia, now in a third year of war since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. “We are not starting to cheat like some post-Soviet states. They want to take something from Russia, but give nothing in return,” Lukashenko said at the time. The longtime leader of Belarus, who has crushed opposition over 30 years in power, referred to the dispatch of troops from regional countries to Kazakhstan in a show of support after protests and riots erupted there in January 2022, killing more than 200 people. Most of the troops were Russian; a small contingent came from Belarus. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Belarusian ambassador after Lukashenko’s remarks and said, in an apparently oblique reference to the Ukraine war, that “all disagreements between states should be resolved by political and diplomatic means.” Kazakhstan’s new ambassador in Belarus is Yerlan Baizhanov, formerly the country’s top diplomat in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Agree To Establish Stations for Syr Darya Water Measurement

The press service of the Ministry of Water Management and Irrigation of Kazakhstan reports that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have agreed to install ten automated measuring stations in Syr Darya to accurately measure water resources. Shavkat Hamroyev, the Minister of Water Management of Uzbekistan, met with Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, his counterpart in Kazakhstan, with the two reportedly discussed automating measuring stations and digitizing water accounting in Syr Darya. Nurzhigitov emphasized that negotiations with international financial organizations and companies are in progress for the joint implementation of the project. The ministers also discussed the modes of operation of the Norin-Syr Darya cascade reservoirs for next year’s pre-irrigation season. “Many thanks to our colleagues from Uzbekistan for their active participation in the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFSA) meeting and the proposals voiced," Nurzhigitov stated. "Over the year, we have become convinced that our joint work produces positive results, so we intend to continue close bilateral cooperation. We have common views on many issues. This allows us to resolve most of the existing issues on a mutually beneficial basis.” In return, Hamroyev expressed Uzbekistan’s desire to strengthen cooperation within the IFSA. “Uzbekistan fully supports Kazakhstan’s chairmanship of the International Fund... We want to strengthen cooperation in this direction and work on joint projects. For example, preserving the ecosystems of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins, providing residents with quality drinking water, restoring small and local water bodies.” In addition, the parties discussed developing a regional strategy for the use of water resources. In May of this year, Hamroyev told a parliamentary hearing that watersheds from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers are forecasted as being favorable this year.

Agreement by Kazakhstan and Turkey on Air Transit

The Government of Kazakhstan has signed an agreement with Turkey on the transit of military equipment and personnel through the airspace of both countries. The resolution, adopted on September 11, establishes a procedure for using air corridors regulated and authorized by the Ministry of Defense, responsible for the transit of military equipment and personnel; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responsible for issuing annual and one-time diplomatic permits (DCNs); and the Turkish Ministry of National Defense. Each party has committed to submitting a formal request through diplomatic channels by December 1 of a given year to obtain an annual diplomatic authorization number (DCN) which will be valid for transit operations  from January 1 to December 31 of the following year. Enabling the transit of official delegations, military equipment and personnel, humanitarian aid, and diplomatic cargo, the decree comes into force from the day of its signing. The draft agreement between the governments of Kazakhstan and Turkey on the transit of military property and personnel through the airspace of both countries was published on the portal “Open NPA” on August 13 and was under discussion until August 27.  The move which illustrates the strengthening relationship between the two countries, follows Kazakhstan's president's attendance  at Recep Tayyip Erdogan's inauguration as president in Ankara in June 2023,  Erdogans visit to Astana in November of the same year, and his return in July 2024, for the SCO Summit.