Natural Disasters - The Times Of Central Asia

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Natural Disasters

Families in Tajikistan Relocated from Zones at High Risk from Disasters

Authorities in Tajikistan have relocated hundreds of families from areas vulnerable to natural disasters, continuing a multi-year effort to reduce risk to life and property. Jamshed Kamolzoda, Head of the Main Directorate for Civil Protection and Territories under the Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, outlined the scope of the relocation initiative, the primary threats identified, and the state resources allocated for disaster prevention. According to Kamolzoda, 328 households were moved from high-risk zones in 2024-2025. Of these, 154 were relocated in 2024, and 174 followed in 2025. The relocations were carried out under the government-approved “Medium-Term Plan for the Organized Resettlement of Environmental Migrants for 2024-2026,” which mandates the annual resettlement of 175 households based on risk assessments. Kamolzoda emphasized that the Committee annually conducts geological and engineering evaluations of vulnerable areas and develops corresponding risk-reduction measures in cooperation with other agencies. A central component of this effort remains the relocation of at-risk populations. “Special working groups have been established under the Committee, comprising experts in engineering, geology, construction, and emergency response,” he said. These groups inspect residential buildings and infrastructure on-site and issue recommendations grounded in technical and scientific analysis. Their findings form the basis for resettlement decisions. The relocation program is part of the broader National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction for 2019-2034, which aims to minimize human and material losses, bolster preventative measures, and improve public preparedness for emergencies. Mudslides, earthquakes, and avalanches are the most frequent natural disasters in Tajikistan, with earthquakes considered the most dangerous due to their potential scale. With 93% of the country’s territory classified as mountainous, the most at-risk regions include the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO), the Rasht Valley, the Zeravshan Valley, and the mountainous areas of the Sughd Region. In 2025 alone, the Committee recorded 287 emergency incidents across Tajikistan, 12 of which were natural disasters. The total estimated damage exceeded $2.2 million.

Glacier Monitoring

ADB Approves $3M for Glacier Monitoring in Tajikistan

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $3 million grant to enhance Tajikistan’s glacier monitoring and natural disaster warning capabilities. The initiative aims to reduce risks linked to accelerated snow and ice melt, particularly in the country’s mountainous regions, and improve public safety. The grant is financed by the Japan Fund for Prosperous and Sustainable Asia and the Pacific (JFSB), which is supported by the Government of Japan through the ADB. Ko Sakamoto, ADB’s Permanent Representative in Tajikistan, emphasized the project's importance for the country. “Glaciers and snow are important for water supply, agriculture, and hydropower, but their rapid melting caused by extreme weather events can trigger devastating floods, avalanches, and other disasters,” he said. Sakamoto noted that the initiative will provide Tajikistan with modern tools for forecasting and responding to climate-related threats. The project is scheduled to be completed by 2029, with most activities to be implemented in high-risk areas of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. The Hydrometeorological Agency has been designated as the project’s executive body. Among the key components is the creation of a unified digital data system to improve the accuracy and timeliness of glacier and snow cover monitoring. The system will enhance the collection, storage, and analysis of data critical for disaster risk assessment. To manage the new infrastructure, technical specialists from the Hydrometeorological Agency will receive training in modern monitoring and data management methods. The project also emphasizes the active inclusion of women in the training process, aligning with ADB’s commitment to inclusive development. Improving early warning systems is another central element of the initiative. Plans include updating disaster risk management strategies, strengthening coordination between local authorities and communities, and enhancing the clarity and timeliness of public alerts related to glacial and snowmelt hazards. Tajikistan joined the ADB in 1998. Since then, the partnership has supported a wide range of infrastructure and development projects, including the modernization of major highways, such as the Obigarm-Nurobod, Dushanbe-Bokhtar, Aini-Penjikent, Dushanbe-Tursunzade, and Vose-Khovaling corridors, as well as the restoration of irrigation systems, expansion of water supply networks, and construction of schools and hospitals.

Asian Development Bank

ADB Approves $56.4 Million Disaster-Response Package for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $56.4 million program aimed at strengthening disaster-response capacity in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the bank announced in an official statement. According to the ADB, both countries face high exposure to earthquakes, floods, and other climate-related hazards. Their ability to respond effectively remains limited by constrained fiscal resources and a lack of risk-transfer mechanisms. The newly approved program is designed to enhance financial preparedness through two pre-arranged ADB financing instruments, each tailored to different levels of disaster risk. Innovative Tools for Disaster-Risk Financing The program incorporates two key components: Contingent Disaster Financing (CDF) and Disaster Resilience Bonds (DRB). CDF provides budgetary support during medium-scale natural disasters or public health emergencies. DRBs, issued on international capital markets, offer rapid liquidity for major, high-severity disasters. “This program will help reduce the fiscal burden on both countries following natural disasters, including geophysical events, extreme weather, and health emergencies,” said Leah Gutierrez, ADB Director General for Central and West Asia. She emphasized that the combination of policy reforms, institutional strengthening, and innovative financing marks a shift from reactive response to proactive disaster-risk management. Focus on Institutional Reforms and Regional Cooperation The initiative also emphasizes strategic policy reforms, capacity building, and governance improvements to ensure a coordinated and transparent disaster-risk management system. It was developed under ADB’s technical assistance program to establish disaster-risk transfer mechanisms in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region, a partnership supporting sustainable development and regional integration. The program will be financed through a $53.1 million grant from the Asian Development Fund (ADF), with an additional $3.3 million from the Asia-Pacific Climate Fund. ADF grants are targeted at the poorest and most vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific. From 2021 to 2024, the fund supported the lifting of 384,000 people out of poverty and the creation of approximately 500,000 jobs.

Reforestation

Natural Barriers: Kyrgyzstan Fights Disasters with Reforestation

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations, in collaboration with representatives of the World Bank, has surveyed floodplain areas in the Jalal-Abad region to identify zones most vulnerable to erosion and flooding. The ministry's press service reported that environmental protection efforts will soon begin in these areas, aimed at strengthening soil stability and reducing the risk of natural disasters. The Forestry Institute had earlier designated the region as a pilot site for environmental initiatives. Emergency services personnel and forestry specialists plan to plant trees to establish protective forest belts. The trees’ root systems are expected to reinforce the soil and serve as natural barriers against landslides and mudflows. Last year, the region suffered severe rainfall, triggering mudslides that nearly destroyed two villages. A 10-year-old child lost their life, and over 300 families were evacuated. The disaster also inundated a section of the Bishkek-Osh highway, paralyzing traffic for several hours. “Visiting the ravines allowed us to assess their current condition and identify the areas most vulnerable to erosion. The timely implementation of protective measures, such as planting trees and applying bioengineering solutions, will not only mitigate flood risks but also help restore ecological balance,” the ministry stated. The project is funded by the World Bank and the International Development Association. The Jalal-Abad region has been selected for the pilot phase, with similar initiatives planned for other regions across the country. A recent World Bank report emphasized the economic costs of forest loss, noting its impact on the water cycle, soil stability, and drought resilience, factors that contribute to billions of dollars in global losses. “People and communities around the world are facing not only an environmental crisis but also an economic one. The good news is that solutions exist. If countries start investing now, natural systems can be restored, delivering strong returns in economic growth and job creation,” said Axel van Trotsenburg, Senior Managing Director at the World Bank. Experts argue that environmental programs should not be viewed as obstacles to development, but rather as key to building more sustainable and resilient economies.

Earthquake

Afghanistan Appeals for Quake Relief; Central Asia Likely to Help

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which border Afghanistan, have often taken the lead among Central Asian countries in providing relief to Afghan communities after deadly earthquakes. Once again, Afghanistan is desperately in need after a 6.0 magnitude earthquake killed at least 800 people and injured many more in the eastern part of the country late Sunday. The Taliban government has appealed for international aid to help survivors of the quake as Afghanistan struggles with other problems, including the legacy of decades of war, a cut-off of U.S. aid for medical and other services under the administration of President Donald Trump, and the return of many Afghan citizens who were expelled from neighboring Pakistan and Iran. The death toll is likely to rise because some villages that were hit by the quake are in mountainous areas that are difficult to reach, and bad weather has hindered rescue efforts. There was devastation across four eastern provinces in Afghanistan, including Nangarhar and Kunar, according to the United Nations. The U.S. Geological Survey said the epicenter of the earthquake was 27 kilometers east-northeast of the Afghan city of Jalalabad, which is Nangarhar’s provincial capital and lies near the border with Pakistan. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan “expressed deep condolences to the leadership of Afghanistan in connection with the numerous human casualties as a result of the earthquake in that country,” the presidency said on Telegram. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have provided humanitarian aid to Afghanistan after past earthquakes, including in 2022 and 2023, and have also helped with logistics as the United Nations and non-governmental groups transported relief supplies across their borders. Turkmenistan, which also shares a border with Afghanistan, has had involvement in such efforts as well. Central Asian countries have been building relations with Afghanistan in recent months, seeking to diversify trade routes while remaining concerned about security threats and other obstacles to stability. The Trans-Afghan Corridor construction project, for example, would provide easier access to Indian Ocean ports for regional countries. It would constitute a core railway that runs from Termez, southern Uzbekistan through Kabul, Afghanistan, and onward to Peshawar, Pakistan. Some Central Asian countries have expressed concern about human rights in Afghanistan, including the treatment of women and girls, but have not made the issue a centerpiece of their growing ties with the Taliban.

Earthquakes

Earthquakes: Is Central Asia Ready for the Next Seismic Event?

In a recent livestream with a Russian nationalist commentator, prominent Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov was asked what threat most concerns Kazakhs today. While his interlocutor expected a geopolitical answer, perhaps Russia’s military might or imperial ambitions, Shibutov’s response reflected a deeply local fear shared by many in Almaty: a devastating earthquake. Given the region’s seismic history, his concern is far from misplaced. A powerful natural disaster could strike a crippling blow to Almaty, Kazakhstan’s economic and cultural heart, and potentially derail the country’s broader development ambitions. A History of Devastation Almaty lies within the Almaty Seismic Zone, a high-risk area in southeastern Kazakhstan known for producing powerful earthquakes. Several historically significant tremors, Vernensky, Keminsky, Kemino-Chuisky (1936), Chiliksky, Sary-Kamyshsky, and Dzhambulsky, were named after their epicenters. The Verny earthquake struck early on May 28 (June 9 in the modern calendar), 1887. Measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale, it destroyed nearly 1,800 stone buildings and over 800 wooden structures. The epicenter was located just 10-12 kilometers south of the city on the northern slope of the Zailiyskiy Alatau, at a depth of about 60 km. The second major disaster, the Kemin earthquake, occurred on December 22, 1910 (January 4, 1911, by modern reckoning). It struck the Chon-Kemin, Chilik, and Chon-Aksu valleys, with a magnitude of 8.2. Tremors lasted for five minutes, followed by strong aftershocks. The epicenter was about 40 km from Verny, in the eastern Zailiyskiy Alatau. On June 21, 1938, another major quake, later named the Kemin-Chui earthquake, originated at the mouth of the Bolshaya Kemin River. Though its epicenter registered between magnitude 8 and 9, public memory of the event is surprisingly faint. In Almaty, the quake struck at around 5 a.m., jolting residents from sleep. Tremors reached magnitude 6, but most people remained calm. Panic in 2024 This was not the case in January and March 2024, when strong tremors triggered widespread panic in Almaty. Some residents jumped from balconies or stairwells, sustaining injuries. Others fled the city in cars, causing major traffic jams. The panic was most pronounced among residents of modern high-rises. Until the 2000s, Almaty had largely avoided such construction due to seismic safety concerns, a principle rooted in Soviet urban planning. Developers now claim modern technologies ensure these buildings can withstand earthquakes but many residents remain unconvinced. This mistrust has sparked public protests against large-scale development projects, including by members of the Mazhilis, Kazakhstan’s lower house of parliament. Adding to concerns, Soviet-era buildings have significantly deteriorated. Aging infrastructure, waterlogged basements, and amateur renovations, including the removal of load-bearing walls, have further weakened the housing stock. In the event of a major quake, widespread destruction is likely and experts agree that the national budget alone could not absorb the resulting financial fallout. Is the Kemin Fault Awakening? Following the March 2024 earthquake, seismic expert and former head of Kazakhstan’s seismic monitoring network, Mukhtar Khaidarov, warned that the epicenter may have been in the Kemin fault zone, a possible precursor to a larger quake. His...