Power generation - The Times Of Central Asia

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Electricity supply

Kazakhstan Targets End to Electricity Deficit by 2027

Just days after a major disruption hit power systems across Central Asia, Kazakhstan reaffirmed its plan to fully cover domestic electricity demand by the first quarter of 2027. By the end of next year, the Energy Ministry expects the country to have a surplus of about 1.3 billion kWh. That margin would still leave relatively little room for error because it is equivalent to only about 1% of the electricity Kazakhstan consumed in 2025, when demand grew by 3.8%. The August 14 outage affected parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Power was cut to some consumers in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, which has a population of about 2.4 million. The precise chain of events remains unclear. Kazakhstan’s national grid operator KEGOC said the disruption began when two hydrogenerators at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant shut down, sharply changing power flows and overloading Kazakhstan’s North-East-South transmission corridor. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry later acknowledged that the Toktogul shutdown was the initial disturbance but said it should not automatically be treated as the direct cause of the subsequent outages elsewhere in Central Asia. A special commission is investigating the incident, although public statements so far have not identified its chair. The outage exposed a risk in regional grid connections. Kazakhstan’s grid is connected to Russia and neighboring Central Asian systems. These links allow electricity to move across borders, but a sudden loss of generation or a major transmission failure can also affect several countries in quick succession. Kazakhstan has been a net electricity importer for several years. In 2025, the country generated 123.1 billion kWh and consumed 124.6 billion kWh. Electricity imports from Russia totaled 4.64 billion kWh, compared with exports of 2.16 billion kWh in the opposite direction. The net inflow from Russia fell from 3.41 billion kWh in 2024 to 2.48 billion kWh in 2025. Electricity consumption increased by 3.8% in 2025, while peak demand reached a record 17.724 GW on December 18. Kazakhstan is also seeking to attract energy-intensive industries and large data centers. Those expectations are reflected in longer-term development plans, which already include 7.8 GW of new and modernized coal-fired generation by 2030, with investment estimated at more than $15.5 billion. The authorities expect to close the remaining short-term deficit by rapidly commissioning new generating capacity. Around 2.6 GW is scheduled to come online in 2026. Four gas-fired power plants and expansion projects at two existing power stations account for part of that capacity, while ten new renewable energy facilities are also planned. The Energy Ministry says these projects should allow Kazakhstan to fully meet its electricity needs by the end of the first quarter of 2027. A further 845 MW is planned for 2027, of which 570 MW would come from renewable projects. By the end of that year, the ministry expects an electricity surplus of around 1.3 billion kWh. Renewable energy is expanding alongside Kazakhstan’s continued reliance on conventional generation. Thermal power plants accounted for 74.4% of electricity generation in 2025. Solar and wind facilities, along with biogas plants, provided 6.1%. The...

Energy Investment

Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector Without Local Business: The Anatomy of Major Projects

In late June 2026, construction began on a 1 GW wind power plant in Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl Region. The project is valued at $1.4 billion. Companies based in the United Arab Emirates, Masdar and W Solar, hold 80% of the project, while Kazakhstan’s quasi-state sector holds the remaining 20% through Qazaq Green Power and the Kazakhstan Investment Development Fund. This ownership model has become typical across Kazakhstan’s energy industry. Nearly all major new energy infrastructure projects rely on foreign capital. The country’s largest renewable energy developments involve international investors, including France’s TotalEnergies and Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power. Even when agreements collapse, the government continues to rely on foreign partners. After financing problems ended cooperation with Russia’s Inter RAO, construction of new thermal power plants in Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk was quickly reassigned to a Kazakh-Singapore consortium. A similar pattern appears across the sector: foreign investors provide most of the capital and technology, while Kazakhstan’s state-linked companies take minority stakes through Samruk-Kazyna or its subsidiaries This has created an unusual situation. Despite an acute shortage of generating capacity and guaranteed long-term demand, Kazakhstan’s largest private businesses have largely stayed away from electricity generation. Instead, domestic capital continues to favor sectors with greater liquidity and shorter investment horizons, ranging from finance to residential real estate. The reasons lie in straightforward economics, where financing costs and regulatory conditions outweigh the sector’s potential returns. The Financial Equation Power generation is one of the most capital-intensive infrastructure industries, with investment payback periods typically ranging from 10 to 15 years. Such projects require access to long-term financing at low interest rates. For Kazakhstan’s private sector, those financing instruments are largely unavailable. Under the National Bank’s tight monetary policy, with the benchmark interest rate standing at 17%, commercial borrowing costs for businesses routinely exceed 20% annually. Financing the construction of a power plant with local-currency loans at those rates is, mathematically, unviable. Such projects are virtually guaranteed to become unprofitable. Rather than engaging in complex, long-term infrastructure financing, Kazakhstan’s banking sector has increasingly concentrated on faster and more profitable lending. Official statistics from the National Bank of Kazakhstan illustrate this imbalance. As of May 2026, banks’ claims on households had reached approximately $60 billion, while lending to non-financial private enterprises, the real economy,stood at about $29 billion, less than half that amount. In practice, commercial banks have largely withdrawn from financing major industrial investment projects, preferring consumer lending with higher liquidity and quicker returns. Foreign corporations, meanwhile, enter Kazakhstan with access to international capital markets. They secure financing from global development institutions or sovereign wealth funds in their home countries at significantly lower borrowing costs. As a result, domestic private investors often lose the competitive race before projects even reach the investment decision stage. Unequal Conditions for Investors A second obstacle for domestic investors lies in Kazakhstan’s regulatory framework. Electricity tariffs have historically been kept under government control to limit inflationary pressures and avoid sharp increases in household utility bills and production costs. To attract major international energy companies,...

Nuclear Energy

Uzbekistan Begins Construction of First Nuclear Power Plant

Uzbekistan has started building its first nuclear power plant, turning a project discussed for nearly a decade into one of the largest energy commitments in the country's post-Soviet history. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin launched construction on June 4 by video link from Saint Petersburg. The plant site in the Forish district of the Jizzakh region was connected to the ceremony. Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also took part. The first concrete pour began overnight from June 4 to June 5 for the foundation slab of the plant's first small modular unit. The first stage used 133 cubic meters of concrete. The full pour is expected to exceed 10,000 cubic meters. Uzatom gave the site the official status of a nuclear power plant under construction under IAEA standards. The plan is no longer the modest small-reactor scheme agreed in 2024. The current design combines two large VVER-1000 reactors with two smaller RITM-200N units. Together, they would give the Jizzakh plant more than 2.1 GW of installed capacity. The small and large units will share one site and supporting infrastructure. That shift raised both the scale and the financial and regulatory stakes. This design is the latest version of a plan that has changed several times. Uzbekistan and Russia signed an intergovernmental agreement on peaceful nuclear cooperation in 2017. In 2018, Rosatom was expected to build two VVER-1200 reactors. The focus later shifted to Jizzakh. In May 2024, Uzbekistan and Rosatom signed a contract for a 330 MW small nuclear plant with six RITM-200N reactors. The plan changed again in 2025, when Tashkent and Moscow settled on the larger mixed-reactor format now under construction. The timetable shows how long the project will take before Uzbekistan gets power from it. The first RITM-200N unit is listed for criticality in late 2029, with the two larger VVER-1000 reactors expected in 2033 and 2035. The push reflects Uzbekistan's fast-rising demand for power. The International Energy Agency says the country's 2020-2030 electricity concept aims to lift generation from 63.6 billion kWh to 120.8 billion kWh by 2030, while cutting gas use in power generation. Uzbekistan produced 86.7 billion kWh in 2025. Renewable power is growing, but officials want a steady baseload supply for industry and cities. Uzbek and Russian estimates put full annual output at about 17 billion kWh. Putin put the future share at up to 15% of Uzbekistan's electricity use, with Reuters also placing the expected contribution at around 15% of demand. Those figures depend on the timing of each unit and on future consumption, which is still rising. Financing is now one of the central questions. Uzatom director Azim Akhmedkhadjaev put the project's base price at $9.5 billion and described that figure as the maximum contract amount. The estimate does not include planned localization, which Uzbekistan wants to raise to 30%. Tashkent wants loans to cover 85-90% of the project and may discuss funding with the New Development Bank and other partners. Russia...

Energy Infrastructure

Why Workers Are Leaving the Çalık Enerji Power Plant Construction Site in Turkmenistan

One of Turkmenistan’s largest combined-cycle power plants is currently under construction on the Caspian coast. Despite offering record-high wages by local standards, the site is experiencing persistent staff turnover. The project is being led by the Turkish company Çalık Enerji, which is building a 1,574 MW combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant in the village of Kiyanly in Turkmenistan’s Balkan region. While the workforce is largely made up of local residents, retaining staff has proven difficult. According to former workers, even unskilled laborers can earn up to $2,856 per month, an exceptionally high salary for the region. This has attracted a steady stream of job seekers. However, many employees say the pay does not adequately compensate for the harsh realities of working on-site. The primary reason cited for resignations is the extreme natural environment. The construction site lies between the Caspian Sea and an open expanse of steppe, where strong winds are a near-constant presence. Conditions worsen in winter, when workers endure eight-hour shifts outdoors in cold and windy weather, conditions that many find intolerable beyond a few months. In addition to environmental challenges, workers point to strained relations with site management and internal conflicts among staff. They describe a lack of mutual trust between workers and middle managers, as well as growing tensions within crews. Some have also reported interethnic clashes, particularly between Turkmen and Azerbaijani workers, despite both groups being Turkmenistani citizens residing in the same region. These disputes have occasionally escalated into physical altercations, further contributing to resignations. Çalık Enerji signed a contract with the state-owned utility Turkmenenergo to carry out the Kiyanly project. The power plant will feature two units equipped with 9F.04 gas turbines, each with a capacity of 288 MW, and a D12 steam turbine produced by GE Vernova.

Electricity

Kyrgyzstan’s Power Consumption Rises Amid Declining Water Levels at Toktogul Reservoir

Electricity consumption in Kyrgyzstan continues to rise. In 2025, the country consumed 19.3 billion kWh, an increase of 900 million kWh compared to the previous year. Of this total, 15.4 billion kWh was generated domestically, while 3.9 billion kWh was imported from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia, officials reported at a government meeting on 14 January. Authorities also highlighted critically low water levels at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant, the country’s largest energy facility, which generates approximately 40% of its electricity. The Toktogul reservoir currently holds 9.102 billion cubic meters of water, a drop of 1.631 billion cubic meters compared to the same date in 2024. The reservoir is approaching the critical or “dead” level of 5.5 billion cubic meters, below which the plant would be unable to generate electricity. Officials at the meeting warned that continued low inflows could force a reduction in power generation and stressed the importance of adhering strictly to electricity consumption limits. Kyrgyzstan has long struggled with seasonal electricity shortages, particularly in winter, when many households rely on electric heating. Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev previously cautioned that the 2025–2026 winter season could be one of the most difficult in recent years due to the water shortfall at Toktogul. To address the electricity deficit, Kyrgyzstan is pressing ahead with both the construction of new hydropower projects and the modernization of existing facilities. In November 2025, the country completed a full modernization of Toktogul, located on the Naryn River. The upgrade increased the plant’s capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW. Kyrgyzstan is also moving forward with the construction of the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant, a strategic regional project being developed in partnership with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once completed, Kambarata-1 is expected to have a capacity of 1,860 MW and produce 5.6 billion kWh annually.

Power generation

Donor Delegation Visits Kyrgyzstan to Assess Progress on Kambarata-1 HPP

As reported by the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy, on October 7-11 Kyrgyzstan received a delegation from the Donor Coordination Committee for the construction of the flagship Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP) comprising representatives of the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, the European Union, the European Investment Bank, the United States Agency for International Development, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office. The Committee, established at the Kyrgyz Republic International Energy Investment Forum, in Vienna on June 10, 2024, comprises major international financial institutions and development partners, including the World Bank, the OPEC Fund, the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The Kambarata-1 HPP, with a projected capacity of 1,860 megawatts and an average annual generation of 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, is to be constructed at preliminary cost exceeding $4 billion in the upper reaches of the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan. Once completed, the largest hydropower plant in Kyrgyzstan is expected to end the country’s electricity shortages. In addition, the ambitious project, jointly implemented with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, aims to strengthen cooperation within Central Asia in water and energy resource management. During their visit, delegates reviewed progress on the Kambarata-1 HPP and in addition, met Kyrgyz Minister of Energy Taalaibek Ibrayev and representatives of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to discuss and establish a mechanism for regular consultations and data exchange to ensure effective cooperation on the project. Last month, Minister Ibrayev reported significant progress on the development of the HPP construction and said that all preparatory stages will be completed by next May. Early in September, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers and the World Bank organized a roundtable on the selection of a dam for the Kambarata-1 HPP. The Swiss engineering company AFRY proposed various options for the project, and based on the type of dam chosen, the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy stated that a feasibility study would be prepared by May 2025.