On Kazakhstan Trip, Putin Touts Russian Military Power

Russian President Vladimir Putin briefed a regional security group meeting in Kazakhstan on Thursday about Russia’s latest hypersonic missile system and possible plans to strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv, a step that would represent another escalation after nearly three years of war in Western-backed Ukraine. Putin’s speech to key figures in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, showcased the military might of Russia, which has nevertheless suffered significant losses during the war. It was delivered to an audience that, with the exception of Russian ally Belarus, has largely tried to stay on the sidelines of the conflict. The Russian-led security organization, known by its acronym CSTO, includes five other post-Soviet states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia. However, Armenia has effectively frozen its membership and its representatives were not present at the meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital. “Some of our colleagues have asked me to report extensively on the latest developments in the zone of conflict in Ukraine, the zone of the special military operation, in view of the recent developments,” Putin said, according to a Kremlin transcript. “Certainly, recognizing the importance of the ongoing events, I will gladly provide an update on the situation today, as I believe it is my duty to inform you about the latest events.” Putin, who launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, described recent Russian strikes as a response to Ukraine’s use of Western weapon systems, including ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions. He referred to a test of the hypersonic Oreshnik missile “in its non-nuclear configuration” in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Nov. 21, a strike that intensified concerns about nuclear escalation by Russia. Some U.S. officials, however, believe the use of nuclear weapons by Russia remains unlikely, even if the situation is dangerous. “Military and technical experts note that when used in a concentrated, massive strike – using several Oreshnik missiles simultaneously – the resulting impact is comparable in power to that of a nuclear weapon,” Putin said. He clarified that the Oreshnik is not deemed to be a weapon of mass destruction because of its “exceptional precision” and because it is not delivering a nuclear warhead, meaning there is no radiation. Production of the Oreshnik system is ongoing and Russia might further use it in combat, Putin said. He also said the Russian military is identifying more strike targets in Ukraine. “These may include military installations, defense industry sites, or decision-making centers” in the Ukrainian capital, he said. There were no immediate public reactions by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and other regional leaders to Putin’s remarks. Tokayev has previously said that Russia is “militarily invincible” and that negotiations are the only way to end the conflict. A Gallup poll conducted in Ukraine this year concluded that about half of Ukrainians want a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, an increase since the beginning of the conflict. However, it’s not clear on what exact terms they would accept a deal with Putin, who says Ukraine is part of Russia. There is also uncertainty about how U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will deal with the war when...

Geopolitical Posturing or Genuine Partnership? Key Takeaways from Putin’s Trip to Kazakhstan

On November 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana for a state visit. He was met at the airport by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The streets of Astana, along Putin’s motorcade route, were adorned with Russian flags, creating a ceremonial backdrop for a meeting touted as a symbol of strategic partnership between the two nations. At the Akorda Presidential Palace, Tokayev hosted a reception for Putin that blended official decorum with cultural displays. The program featured children reciting poetry and participation in a collaborative painting led by renowned Kazakh artist Assol (Asel Sabyrzhankyzy), who named the artwork Bridge of Friendship and presented it to Putin. However, not all Kazakhstanis welcomed the visit with enthusiasm. Some citizens, concerned by Russia’s imperial overtones or sympathetic to Ukraine, expressed their dissent through an online flash mob. A banner at Astana Airport referring to Putin as “Your Excellency” sparked outrage among critics, who viewed it as excessive deference. Political analysts later clarified that the term has been consistently used for other high-level visitors to Kazakhstan. Putin’s state visit, described as a rare diplomatic event typically occurring once per presidential term, was notably proposed by Kazakhstan. During a press briefing, Putin remarked, “At your suggestion, this visit was given the status of a state visit, but I want to note that the solemn protocol did not prevent us from working productively, as is characteristic of our meetings.” Heightened Security Amid Geopolitical Tensions The visit came against the backdrop of growing geopolitical instability. Less than a week earlier, on November 21, Tokayev had instructed government agencies to heighten security following Russia’s test of the Oreshnik ballistic system in Ukraine. This context, paired with the substantial security measures surrounding the state visit, led observers to speculate that Russia’s own security concerns may have influenced the format. The official discussions were framed by frequent references to “strategic partnership” and the “geopolitical situation.” These themes culminated in a joint declaration entitled “Joint Statement of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the President of the Russian Federation on Deepening Strategic Partnership in the New Global Order.” The statement, structured in three main sections, outlined bilateral cooperation in political, economic, and security domains. Ambiguities in Counter-Terrorism and Political Statements The declaration’s political section raised some eyebrows, particularly the clause condemning recent “terrorist acts” in Russia and pledging closer intelligence cooperation to combat such threats. Questions remain over whether Kazakhstan considers only incidents like the Crocus City Hall attack on the outskirts of Moscow as terrorism, or whether the term extends to military actions tied to the Ukraine conflict. Another noteworthy point was the denunciation of “irresponsible statements” by public figures that undermine mutual respect between the two nations. This has been a sensitive issue for Kazakhstan, which has frequently faced provocative rhetoric from Russian propagandists and certain lawmakers. Tokayev himself rebuffed such remarks at the 2022 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, firmly rejecting recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Economic Vision and Strategic Transport The economic...