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Energy Security

Putin Visit Puts Nuclear Power and Oil Transit at Center of Russia-Kazakhstan Ties

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Kazakhstan is becoming more than a diplomatic event. It is increasingly being seen as a demonstration of how Russia and Kazakhstan are shaping one of Eurasia’s key energy and logistics axes amid the restructuring of global markets, sanctions pressure, and the continued shift of economic flows toward Asia. Symbolically, ahead of the visit, Putin published a programmatic article in Kazakh media titled “Russia-Kazakhstan: An Alliance at the Heart of Eurasia,” in which he outlined a new framework for bilateral relations. The Russian president focused on nuclear energy, oil and gas cooperation, transport corridors, and Eurasian integration, describing the partnership between the two countries as a factor of stability and development for the wider continent. For Moscow, the current visit carries particular significance. It is Putin’s second state visit to Kazakhstan during a single presidential term. A rare occurrence in international diplomatic practice. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said the move was intended to emphasize the “unprecedentedly high level of relations between our two countries.” The main outcome of the talks is expected to be the signing of agreements related to the construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant with the participation of Russia’s state nuclear corporation, Rosatom. According to Ushakov, the two sides are expected to finalize “the main parameters for the creation of the nuclear power plant and financing of the project through a Russian state export credit.” For Kazakhstan, the nuclear project is about far more than electricity generation. The country faces growing domestic power demand, aging infrastructure, and the need to ensure long-term energy security. At the same time, the project reflects a broader geopolitical calculation. Nuclear energy has traditionally been one of the most sensitive forms of strategic cooperation. A country building a nuclear power plant enters into a long-term technological partnership involving fuel supplies, engineering maintenance, personnel training, and technical support lasting for decades. Russia’s role in constructing Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant would therefore allow Moscow to preserve a deep technological presence in Central Asia despite its growing international isolation. For Astana, however, cooperation with Russia in the nuclear sector remains a pragmatic choice rather than a purely political one. Kazakhstan is the world’s largest producer of uranium, yet it still lacks its own nuclear power generation sector. Amid intensifying competition between global power centers, Kazakhstan appears less interested in choosing sides than in strengthening its resilience and turning its geography into a strategic advantage. The same logic is evident in the oil and gas agenda surrounding Putin’s visit. Moscow and Astana are discussing increasing the transit of Russian oil to China through the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline from 10 million to 12.5 million tons annually. Ushakov said prospects for the negotiations were “optimistic” and noted that the legal framework for the agreements was already in its final stages. According to KazTransOil, approximately 832,000 tons of Russian oil were transported to China through the route in April alone, while first-quarter transit volumes reached 2.5 million tons. Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russian...

State Visit

Tokayev in Moscow: Balancing Friendship and Strategy

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev begins a state visit to Russia in Moscow today, accompanied by a carefully calibrated message of diplomatic continuity. Ahead of his arrival, Tokayev published an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta affirming Kazakhstan’s “eternal friendship” with Russia, a phrase that has become standard in bilateral rhetoric. While much of the piece reiterates familiar themes of cooperation in energy, trade, and culture, a few notable elements suggest deeper strategic positioning. From the outset, Tokayev appeared intent on striking a personal chord with Vladimir Putin. Mirroring the Russian president’s preference for historical framing, he wrote: “Our peoples have lived side by side for centuries, sharing joys and trials, and together creating a single cultural space in Eurasia. We are united by a common perception of traditional values, similar views on current issues of modern life, and joint work to ensure the well-being of our brotherly peoples.” The Kazakh leader also offered high praise for Putin’s leadership, describing bilateral ties as “mature and stable” and built on “deep trust, respect, and equality.” “All achievements in bilateral cooperation are inextricably linked to the energetic and productive efforts of President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin,” Tokayev wrote. “In Kazakhstan, he enjoys unwavering respect as a statesman of global stature, and his name is on the lips of politicians and ordinary people in virtually every country in the world.” The visit’s key moment will be the signing of a Declaration elevating Kazakhstan-Russia ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance”, a step Tokayev described as ushering in “a new era in bilateral relations.” More intriguing, however, was Tokayev’s commentary on Russia’s global standing, wherein Tokayev referenced recent high-level talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, U.S. President Donald Trump, and leaders across Europe, Asia, and Africa. “Although many of them are at opposite ends of the geopolitical spectrum, they all recognize the exceptional role of Russia and its leader in resolving key issues in international relations. In other words, it is impossible to overcome the contradictions of the modern world without Moscow's participation,” he stated. While Tokayev has previously dismissed the idea of Kazakhstan acting as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, his recent statements suggest Astana may be prepared to play a supporting role in future dialogue. “Kazakhstan is not a mediator in the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and does not see itself as such,” he said last month. “In my opinion, both sides are capable of conducting dialogue on all contentious issues on a bilateral basis and at different levels. I have always believed and publicly stated that the ‘Ukrainian crisis’ is extremely complex and cannot be simplified.” Nonetheless, Tokayev offered practical insights into what a negotiation process would require, stressing the importance of expert-level preparation and dismissing the idea of hastily organized summits without a ceasefire or clear agenda as “unrealistic.” “If the leaders of Russia and Ukraine are willing to come to Kazakhstan, we will provide all the necessary services to ensure the success of the negotiations,” Tokayev added. He reaffirmed...

ICC

EU Criticizes Tajikistan for Failing to Arrest Putin on ICC Warrant

The European Union says Tajikistan was obligated under international law to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit to the Central Asian country for a regional summit this week. “Tajikistan is a State Party to the Rome Statute of the ICC (International Criminal Court) and failed to comply with its obligations under the Statute to execute the arrest warrant,” the EU’s diplomatic service said in a statement on Thursday. “Vladimir Putin is under an arrest warrant by the ICC for international crimes, specifically alleged crimes of unlawful deportation and unlawful transfer of children from temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories in the context of his illegal war of aggression against Ukraine,” the service said. Russia rejects the authority of the court, which issued the warrant for Putin’s arrest in March 2023. Tajikistan signed the Rome Statute, which established the International Criminal Court, in 1998. But it maintains close political, economic, and security ties with Russia. At a joint appearance with Putin in Dushanbe on Thursday, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon noted the “high level of relations between Tajikistan and Russia." Putin also met the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at the Russia-Central Asia summit.

International Diplomacy

Tokayev Congratulates Putin After Alaska Meeting; Russian Leader Briefs Mirziyoyev

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan by telephone on Sunday, briefing them about his talks in Alaska with U.S. President Donald Trump about ending the war in Ukraine. Trade and joint energy projects between Russia and the Central Asian countries were also discussed. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan congratulated Putin on “the results” of the meeting with Trump and said “the negotiations contributed to a better understanding by the American side of the Russian position on Ukraine, which will help find common ground on this complex issue,” Tokayev’s office said. “Kassym-Jomart Tokayev considers the Alaska summit a breakthrough event in terms of strengthening Russia's international positions and mutual understanding on the world stage,” the office said. Even so, uncertainty remains. Putin and Trump provided few details about their meeting on Friday, leaving Alaska without the Ukraine-backed cease-fire that Trump had previously demanded. Ukraine and its European allies are concerned that Trump could back a proposed deal under which Moscow secures more Ukrainian territory as part of a resolution. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders are scheduled to meet Trump at the White House on Monday to press their case for a peace with security guarantees. In their phone call, Putin informed President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan of the “main results” of his meeting with Trump, Mirziyoyev’s office said. “The leader of Uzbekistan expressed support for the agreements reached and voiced hope for a swift settlement of the situation surrounding Ukraine,” the office said. Putin and Mirziyoyev spoke about accelerating trade between their two countries, while Tokayev thanked the Russian leader for collaborating in the field of energy, a possible reference to Russia’s leading role in building Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant. The Kremlin released similar statements about the phone calls.

International Diplomacy

Despite War’s Challenges, Kazakhstan Says Trump-Putin Meeting Was “The Beginning”

Kazakhstan has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump for their meeting in Alaska, describing it as “the beginning of high-level negotiations on the situation in Ukraine.” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev “regards the summit as a historic event, made possible by the political will and sincere determination of both leaders to seek common approaches to resolving contemporary global challenges, including the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine,” Tokayev´s press secretary, Ruslan Zheldibay, said on X on Saturday. Tokayev’s statement generally aligned with the positive statements made by Putin and Trump after their meeting on Friday, even though the two leaders provided few details about how they envisioned resolving the conflict when they spoke briefly to the media after their discussion. Ukraine and its European allies have been concerned that Trump could favor Putin’s terms for ending the war, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to renewed Russian pressure in the future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to meet Trump at the White House on Monday. In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump appeared to back away from his previous demand for a Ukraine-supported ceasefire, saying it was better to “go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.” Despite their concerns, European leaders have welcomed Trump’s negotiation efforts, noting a statement by the U.S. president that the United States “is prepared to give security guarantees” so that Ukraine can defend its sovereignty. “It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory. International borders must not be changed by force,” a joint statement by European leaders said. Kazakhstan is not directly involved in negotiations over Ukraine, but it has become an intermittent venue for international diplomacy and has offered to assist as needed since it maintains ties with both Russia and Ukraine. Tokayev has spoken in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. But in a phone call a week ago, Tokayev told Zelenskyy that “A bad peace is better than a good war,” possibly a pitch to the Ukrainian leader to consider concessions such as giving up territory in order to preserve the country’s independence. Russia occupies an estimated 20% of Ukraine and has made gains in eastern Ukraine in recent days. At least publicly, Zelenskyy has opposed the idea of giving up territory, saying the Ukrainian constitution prevents him from doing so. On Saturday, he said on X: “A real peace must be achieved, one that will be lasting, not just another pause between Russian invasions.” Kazakhstan, which has sought neutrality over the war, shares a long land border with Russia and has closer trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow than Kyiv. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Tokayev has spoken to Zelenskyy several times in phone calls that, according to Kazakhstan’s presidency, were initiated by the Ukrainian side. Tokayev has spoken to Putin by phone on more than twice as many occasions and has also met the Russian...

Youth Exchange Program

Amidst Diplomatic Tensions, Russia and Uzbekistan Explore Long-Term Youth Exchange Program

During a recent meeting with the heads of global news agencies in St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded positively to a proposal from Uzbekistan’s National News Agency (UzA) to establish a long-term youth exchange program aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and addressing migration-related issues. Abdusaid Kochimov, Director General of UzA, initiated the proposal, emphasizing the historical and cultural ties between the two countries. “There is a strong interest in Uzbekistan in everything that happens in and around Russia. Our societies share close mentalities and traditions,” he said. Kochimov praised the leadership of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Shavkat Mirziyoyev in deepening strategic cooperation, describing their efforts as “titanic.” However, he pointed out persistent challenges in the migration sphere and argued that a structured youth program with defined goals could foster deeper mutual understanding and resolve some of these issues. “There is a real need for a large-scale and long-term youth exchange program with clear projects and goals,” Kochimov said. “This would bring our young people closer and build a strong, friendly image of each other, based on our shared values and history.” President Putin welcomed the suggestion, noting ongoing collaboration between Russia and Uzbekistan across several sectors, including energy. He referenced the two countries’ partnership in nuclear energy development and acknowledged Uzbekistan’s rapidly growing population, from 15 million three decades ago to 38 million today, highlighting the resulting pressures on its labor market. “We agreed with President Mirziyoyev to prepare people who want to work in Russia in advance. This includes learning the Russian language and culture. There’s a good plan in place,” Putin said, adding, “This work is not just important, it’s essential. I fully agree with you.” Putin also mentioned recent visits by Uzbek officials to Moscow, including Saida Mirziyoyeva, which included discussions on youth engagement. He reaffirmed Russia’s commitment to supporting joint initiatives in this area. However, this positive diplomatic development comes against the backdrop of recent tensions over the treatment of Uzbek nationals in Russia. On June 10, the Uzbek Foreign Ministry summoned Russian diplomats to protest what it called the aggressive and disrespectful conduct of law enforcement officers during identity checks on Uzbek migrants. The protest followed a major police raid in Moscow’s Strogino district on June 8. Footage shared online appeared to show migrants being forcibly removed, verbally abused, and subjected to electric shocks. Uzbek authorities criticized these actions as unauthorized and unacceptable. In response, Uzbekistan’s embassy in Moscow issued an official note requesting a legal explanation and urging Russian authorities to treat migrants with dignity in line with international standards. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed that the matter is currently under official review.