Rogun HPP - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kazakhstan Has a Deal for Tajik Electricity, Now the Wait Begins

In the latest sign of Central Asian regional cooperation, Kazakhstan has signed a long-term deal to import electricity from Tajikistan. However, that electricity might not reach Kazakhstan anytime soon, as there are some important details that need to be worked out by Tajikistan before supplies can begin. Kazakhstan’s energy problems Kazakhstan has been experiencing severe energy deficits for several years now, particularly during winter months. Kazakh Senator Suyindik Aldashev said in late February this year that Kazakhstan would be short some 5.7 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity in 2025, which would be a 46% increase in the country’s electricity deficit compared to 2024. Kazakhstan was forced to import electricity from Russia during the winter of 2024 to help alleviate energy shortages. These shortages contributed to Kazakhstan's decision to hold a referendum to approve the construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). To date, however, there has been no announcement of which company will build the NPP, so additional electricity from that source could be a decade or more away. This has led Kazakhstan to explore importing energy resources from its Central Asian neighbors. The head of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov just visited Kazakhstan and met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev with Turkmen gas exports to its northern neighbor high on the agenda. Kazakhstan has been in discussions with Tajikistan about electricity shipments for months, and the agreement was finalized toward the end of April. Rogun The source of the electricity Tajikistan intends to export to Kazakhstan is the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) on the Vakhsh River, some 110 kilometers east of the Tajik capital Dushanbe. The Rogun HPP has a history of controversy. It was conceived in the 1960s when Tajikistan was a Soviet Republic. Construction on the project started in 1976, but not much had been done by the time the USSR collapsed in late 1991, and work ground to halt shortly thereafter. Russian company RUSAL signed an agreement in 2004 to invest more than $1 billion and finish building Rogun, but disputes over the project led the Tajik government to cancel the contract in 2007. One of the main differences between the two parties was RUSAL’s insistence the dam wall at Rogun be no higher than 285 meters, whereas the Tajik authorities wanted the original height of 335 meters. At 285 meters, the HPP’s output would have been 2400 megawatts (MW), while at 335 meters, the output would be 3600 MW. Russia’s Inter RAO EES was in talks with Tajikistan about the Rogun project in 2008, but in the end, nothing came from those negotiations. With no hope of foreign backing, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon started portraying Rogun as a project of national salvation, the key to energy independence. Rahmon’s government called on citizens to help finance construction of the HPP and when public support in the poorest country in Central Asia proved insufficient, citizens were pressured into buying shares in the project. The government in neighboring Uzbekistan objected to Rogun’s construction,...

Rogun HPP Bilateral Cooperation Electricity supply Electricity Import

Kazakhstan to Import Electricity from Tajikistan to Address Energy Shortages

Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have signed an agreement on long-term cooperation in the energy sector. The agreement will remain in effect for 20 years, with the possibility of a 10-year extension. The document aims to strengthen energy security, promote environmentally friendly technologies, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Monitoring and telemetry Under the agreement, Kazakhstan will receive scheduled electricity supplies from Tajikistan, particularly from the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP). These imports are intended to cover planned shortages in the North-South zone of Kazakhstan’s unified power system. The price is set at $0.034 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), including VAT at a zero rate. The agreement also includes the introduction of hourly electricity metering at connection points between Kazakhstan's and Central Asia’s power grids, as well as along the Tajik border. Kazakhstan's system operator, KEGOC JSC, will receive real-time telemetry data from Tajikistan via interstate transmission lines to ensure accurate metering and efficient coordination. Electricity deliveries will follow the routes specified in the purchase agreements. The primary source will be the Rogun HPP, with supplies timed to match Kazakhstan's peak shortage periods. A long-awaited step Energy cooperation between the two countries has been under discussion for some time. In August 2024, former Kazakh Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliev held talks on importing electricity from Tajikistan. These discussions also addressed the issue of unscheduled electricity flows between their power grids. By December 2024, plans were already in place to finalize a 20-year agreement. In February 2025, the deal was confirmed during talks between Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu and his Tajik counterpart, Sirojiddin Mukhriddin. “We agree that Tajik-Kazakh energy cooperation has broad prospects. We have agreed that an intergovernmental agreement on electricity will be signed in the very near future,” the Tajik foreign minister said at the time. The potential of the Rogun HPP and prospects for Kazakhstan A key element of the agreement will be the Rogun hydroelectric power plant on the Vakhsh River. Once completed, its dam will reach a height of 335 meters, making it the tallest in the world. The power plant will have a capacity of 3,600 MW, making it the largest power plant in Central Asia. This makes the project strategically important not only for Tajikistan but for the entire region. The official website of the Rogun HPP states that the facility will be the upper stage of the Vakhsh cascade and will play a key role in ensuring sustainable energy supplies. The agreement is expected to not only enable Kazakhstan to stabilize its energy balance during peak loads, but also open up new opportunities for cross-border cooperation. With the growing demand for green energy, the strategic alliance with Tajikistan could become an important element of the country's energy transition. The resolution enters into force on the day of its signing and effectively launches an intergovernmental mechanism capable of strengthening Kazakhstan's energy security for decades to come.

Rogun HPP investigation risks Rogun Dam World Bank

World Bank to Investigate Regional Risks of Rogun Dam Project

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to review a formal complaint filed by residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan concerning the environmental and social risks associated with the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan. The complaint, submitted by the regional environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries, targets a $350 million World Bank loan and related technical assistance used to revise the project’s 2014 environmental and social impact assessments. The complainants argue that the current studies are outdated and inadequate, relying on assumptions that are more than a decade old. They contend the assessments fail to account for the downstream effects of storing and diverting water from the Vakhsh River, one of the primary tributaries of the Amu Darya basin, on communities and ecosystems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Preliminary estimates from the World Bank suggest that filling the Rogun reservoir could decrease the flow into the Aral Sea by 0.8 to 1.2 cubic kilometers annually, potentially cutting today’s levels by as much as 25%. Such a reduction, critics warn, could exacerbate ongoing issues in the region, including desertification, soil salinity, and land degradation. These challenges have plagued villages in the lower Amu Darya since Soviet-era irrigation schemes dramatically reduced the sea’s volume, leading to persistent dust storms and declining water quality. Local farmers are particularly concerned about the dam’s effect on the timing of water availability. If the dam shifts the river’s flow from spring and summer into winter storage, it could disrupt traditional irrigation cycles, forcing expensive infrastructure adjustments. Some communities fear economic collapse and forced migration if water needs go unmet during critical planting seasons. Environmental experts also highlight the cumulative threat posed by the Rogun HPP in conjunction with Afghanistan’s planned Qosh Tepa canal. No comprehensive analysis has been conducted to evaluate the combined impact of these two major water diversion projects on regional hydrology and biodiversity. The World Bank itself estimates that climate change could reduce water availability in the region by 15-30% by 2050, potentially costing Uzbekistan up to 250,000 agricultural jobs and requiring billions in climate adaptation investments. In response, Rivers Without Boundaries has called on the World Bank and its co-financiers, who have collectively pledged over $1 billion, to suspend further funding until a transparent, independent risk assessment is completed. The coalition advocates for a thorough study of alternative project designs, such as a lower dam height, to mitigate environmental and social damage. They also demand genuine public consultation with all Amu Darya basin countries, equitable compensation mechanisms, and legally binding water management agreements. Failure to address these concerns, the group warns, risks triggering an irreversible ecological and humanitarian crisis across Central Asia.

Environment World Bank Rogun HPP investigation Rivers without Boundaries

Communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan Demand World Bank Investigation into Rogun HPP

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to formally investigate the World Bank’s involvement in the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan, following a complaint filed on behalf of communities living downstream on the Amu Darya River in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The complaint, submitted by the international environmental coalition Rivers without Boundaries, raises serious concerns about the project's environmental and social impacts. The group claims the World Bank approved funding for the project based on outdated and incomplete assessments, failing to adequately consider risks to local ecosystems and communities. At the heart of the issue is the potential impact of filling the Rogun reservoir, which could reduce water flow to the Amu Darya delta by 25% or more. Experts warn this could accelerate desertification, increase soil salinity, and threaten the livelihoods and health of up to 10 million people in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Particularly vulnerable are the region’s rare tugai forests, including the Tigrovaya Balka Reserve, which was inscribed on UNESCO’s World Heritage List in 2023. The dam's construction also endangers local aquatic species, such as the critically endangered Amu Darya false shovelnose sturgeon. “This investigation is a crucial step,” said Yevgeny Simonov, international coordinator of Rivers without Boundaries. “The Rogun project in its current form is a massive threat to the environment and to millions of people in Central Asia. The World Bank must adhere to its own environmental and social safeguards.” Activists also criticized the lack of public consultation in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where affected communities were allegedly not informed in their native languages, Uzbek, Karakalpak, or Turkmen and where access to key documents was limited. Several complainants reportedly requested anonymity, citing fear of retaliation, which reflects the challenging environment for civic participation in the region. “People living in the lower Amu Darya basin have already suffered for decades due to poor water management and the drying of the Aral Sea. The Rogun project could be the final blow,” said Manana Kochladze of CEE Bankwatch Network. “There has been no serious dialogue with those whose lives depend on this river, which contradicts the basic principles of transparency and participation.” In 2023, environmental groups submitted proposed modifications to align the Rogun project with international standards, including cheaper and safer alternatives. However, the World Bank has yet to respond. Rivers without Boundaries alleges that the project violates multiple Bank policies, including those on environmental assessment, biodiversity protection, resource efficiency, dam safety, community engagement, and resettlement. The coalition is now urging the World Bank and other financiers to pause funding until a comprehensive, independent, and transparent investigation is completed and until meaningful steps are taken to prevent further harm to both people and nature.

Investments Hydropower Asian Development Bank Rogun HPP

ADB Considers $500 Million Support for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) will continue supporting Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) project in 2025, the bank’s new country manager, Ko Sakamoto, announced on February 25. Speaking to reporters, Sakamoto emphasized that Rogun HPP is a top priority for the Tajik government, highlighting its significance for Tajikistan’s energy independence, regional stability and climate change mitigation. The ADB has been invited to join a consortium of financial institutions financing the project. Tajikistan has requested $500 million in assistance, and the bank is currently reviewing the proposal. “ADB will continue to support the project and share updates as negotiations progress,” Sakamoto said. In 2024, ADB provided $220 million in assistance to Tajikistan, funding six projects across agriculture, energy, health, public administration and transport. ADB plans to approve four new projects in 2025, including an initiative on digital agriculture aimed at boosting food security. The bank is developing a five-year strategy that will align with Tajikistan’s long-term development goals. It will support glacier protection efforts, as Tajikistan leads regional climate initiatives. An international glacier conservation conference is scheduled for May in Dushanbe. As Tajikistan works toward greater energy security, Rogun remains central to its economic and environmental strategy. ADB’s continued involvement signals strong international backing for the project, which has the potential to transform Tajikistan into a key regional energy exporter. If approved, the $500 million in funding would mark a significant step toward completing one of Central Asia’s most ambitious hydropower projects.

Finance AIIB Hydropower Rogun HPP HPP Energy Infrastructure

AIIB Commits $500 Million to Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Project

The Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has approved a multiphase program totaling $500 million, including an initial Phase 1 loan of $270 million, to support Tajikistan’s flagship Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) project. The announcement was made on January 6, following the financing approval on December 19, 2024. The Rogun HPP, located on the Vakhsh River — a tributary of the Amu Darya River — lies 110 kilometers from Dushanbe, Tajikistan’s capital. With a designed generation capacity of 3,780 MW, a 335-meter-high dam, and a reservoir spanning 170 square kilometers, the Rogun HPP is expected to deliver improved electricity access to around 10 million people. It aims to address Tajikistan’s chronic winter power shortages and position the country as a key regional energy supplier. The project is co-financed with the World Bank, with potential contributions from a global consortium of donors. It seeks to enhance the supply of clean, affordable, and climate-resilient hydropower, with the potential to export electricity to neighboring Central Asian countries. As Central Asia’s energy demand is projected to grow by 40% by 2030 and triple by 2050, the Rogun HPP will play a pivotal role in increasing reliability and reducing the cost of electricity supply across the region. Konstantin Limitovskiy, AIIB Chief Investment Officer, commented on the significance of the project, stating: "This project will significantly contribute to the green energy transition and energy security of Central Asia. Investing in sustainable energy infrastructure is not merely about meeting today’s demands, but about empowering future generations with clean, reliable power that drives transformative growth, strengthens resilience, and unlocks the full potential of the region." Tajikistan ranks eighth globally in hydropower potential, yet only about 4% of this capacity is currently utilized. The Rogun HPP is set to play a critical role in decarbonizing electricity grids across Central Asia, supporting the region’s ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.