Rogun HPP - The Times Of Central Asia

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Rogun Hydropower Plant

Independent Audit Raises Concerns Over Financial Reporting at Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant

An independent audit of Tajikistan’s flagship Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) has flagged serious financial reporting concerns, including a possible understatement of the company’s share capital. The findings, cited by Asia-Plus from the auditor’s conclusion, point to broader risks in the management of one of Central Asia’s most ambitious infrastructure projects. The audit, covering Rogun’s 2024 financial statements, was conducted by Baker Tilly Tajikistan, a registered member of the international Baker Tilly network. The auditors issued a qualified opinion, meaning they were unable to fully confirm the accuracy of the company’s accounts and highlighted several material issues. The audited report has been published on the official Rogun HPP website. Among the key concerns, auditors stated they had not been involved in scheduled or annual inventories of cash, fixed assets, or other inventories as of December 31, 2024. This limited their ability to verify the existence and condition of parts of the company’s assets through alternative procedures, raising the risk of potential misstatements in the financial records. The audit also noted that Rogun’s fixed assets had not been revalued in recent years, despite signs that their book value may significantly differ from their fair market value. Under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), such assets are required to be revalued periodically. The failure to do so may distort the company’s true financial position. A particularly striking finding involved discrepancies in the company’s reported share capital. Rogun’s financial statements list share capital at 40.03 billion somoni, while the Unified State Register of Legal Entities records it at 45 billion somoni. The difference, 4.97 billion somoni, or approximately $540 million, may indicate that the company has understated its equity. According to the audit, Rogun’s management did not provide adequate documentation to support the lower figure. As of the end of 2024, Rogun reported total assets of 49.48 billion somoni, up from the previous year. The bulk, 35.33 billion somoni, was classified as construction in progress, reflecting the plant’s ongoing development phase. The book value of fixed assets stood at 9.28 billion somoni, with most 2024 expenditures directed toward equipment and construction work. The company reported 2024 revenues of 258.4 million somoni, primarily from electricity sales. However, operating costs exceeded income, totaling 367.4 million somoni, resulting in a net loss of 277.3 million somoni. This marks a modest improvement over 2023, when the net loss was 332.8 million somoni. The auditors described these losses as systemic, emphasizing that the plant has not yet reached full operational capacity. Despite the loss, Rogun HPP generated a positive operating cash flow of more than 3.2 billion somoni in 2024. This was largely attributed to increased liabilities from founders and settlements with state institutions. Baker Tilly stressed that the company’s continued operation depends heavily on sustained government support, which is regularly allocated through Tajikistan’s state budget. The auditors also issued a warning over material uncertainty regarding the company’s ability to continue as a going concern. However, Rogun’s management maintains that the project is a strategic national asset, vital to Tajikistan’s...

Energy Sector

Tajikistan Plans $6.5 Billion Investment in Energy Sector

Tajikistan will require approximately $6.5 billion to implement its 2026-2030 Energy Sector Development Program, with funding expected from a combination of external and internal sources, including international partners and the state budget. Planned funding sources include: Development partners: $3.94 billion Private investment: $2.56 billion The state budget, primarily to finance the ongoing construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP), which is supported annually through a dedicated budget line. In 2025 alone, more than $970 million was allocated from the state budget to the Rogun project, accounting for roughly 20% of all approved treasury expenditures. Support for Tajikistan’s fuel and energy complex remains one of the top budgetary priorities. The draft state budget for 2026 earmarks $1.61 billion for the sector, equivalent to 22.4% of total planned expenditures. The program will primarily focus on large-scale hydropower development. In parallel, the government aims to expand renewable energy capacity. Solar power plants with a combined capacity of 1.5 GW are planned for construction in the Sughd and Khatlon regions. Authorities also plan to explore the potential for wind energy. Another key objective is increasing electricity exports and contributing to frequency regulation within Central Asia’s regional power networks. Achieving this will require infrastructure upgrades, including construction of the Rogun-Saihun 500 kV transmission line and the modernization of existing substations. Domestically, the program calls for the replacement of outdated equipment, renovation of distribution networks, and the installation of smart meters to enhance energy reliability and efficiency.

Electricity supply

Rahmon Outlines Measures to Address Tajikistan’s Winter Power Shortages

President Emomali Rahmon has acknowledged that Tajikistan’s population continues to endure severe electricity rationing during the winter months, and has outlined steps the government is taking to alleviate the crisis. “We are fully aware of the challenges faced by the people of Tajikistan during the period of temporary restrictions on electricity supply,” Rahmon said in his annual address to parliament on December 16, adding that authorities are implementing all necessary measures to address the issue. Rahmon attributed the shortages primarily to rapid population growth and the expansion of industrial production, both of which have significantly increased domestic electricity consumption. He also cited unfavorable weather conditions, including below-average rainfall last autumn, which reduced water inflows into reservoirs that supply the country’s hydropower plants. He noted that since independence, 1.3 million new homes have been built to accommodate over 8.4 million people. In the past seven years alone, 2,600 new industrial enterprises have begun operations, further raising electricity demand. Despite these pressures, Tajikistan has steadily increased electricity production. Over the past decade, annual generation has risen by 7 billion kilowatt-hours, from 17.2 billion in 2015 to 24.2 billion in 2025, an increase of approximately 40%. However, domestic demand is projected to grow by an additional 31% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels. Over the past ten years, investments in the energy sector have added 1,017 megawatts to the country’s installed capacity. A further 200 megawatts were gained through the rehabilitation and modernization of existing plants. One of the most recent projects was the modernization of the Kairakkum Hydroelectric Power Plant, completed in November 2025, which increased its capacity from 114 megawatts to 174 megawatts. While Tajikistan possesses vast hydropower potential, it has long struggled with chronic energy shortages. In response, the government has prioritized large-scale hydropower projects, particularly the Rogun Dam and Hydropower Plant, which is expected to be central to achieving domestic energy security and establishing Tajikistan as a regional electricity exporter. Rahmon announced that the third generating unit of the Rogun plant is scheduled for commissioning in September 2027, marking a key milestone on the path to full energy independence. In parallel, construction has begun on two large solar power plants, each with a capacity of 250 megawatts, in the Sughd and Khatlon regions. Both facilities are expected to be operational by August 2026. He also emphasized the importance of improving energy efficiency alongside expanding generation capacity. Electricity losses remain high, exceeding 3 billion kilowatt-hours annually. Rahmon called for accelerating the rollout of a nationwide digital billing system, which he said has already reduced losses. The introduction of modern digital billing and payment technologies revealed that 30% to 40% of households were previously not paying for electricity. Since the system’s implementation, losses have declined. In the first 11 months of 2025, total electricity losses stood at approximately 3 billion kilowatt-hours, 500 million kilowatt-hours less than during the same period the previous year.

Rogun Dam

Environmental Groups Criticize World Bank’s Decision on Rogun Dam Complaint

Environmental advocates have sharply criticized the World Bank’s decision to reject a request for a full investigation into Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant, citing concerns over potentially severe environmental and social consequences for communities downstream along the Amu Darya river in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. According to the international coalition Rivers without Boundaries, the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors dismissed the complaint despite mounting evidence that the project could exacerbate water scarcity, degrade water quality, damage vulnerable ecosystems, and displace rural populations dependent on agriculture and access to clean water. The complaint, filed earlier this year on behalf of affected communities, argued that the project’s environmental impact assessments were based on outdated data and non-binding verbal assurances from Tajikistan that the reservoir would not be operated at full capacity. The World Bank’s Inspection Panel registered the complaint in April 2025 and, after conducting an initial review, including a fact-finding visit to Tajikistan in June, recommended a comprehensive investigation, citing a strong likelihood of harm. However, the Bank’s Board rejected that recommendation, asserting that only citizens of the country receiving Bank financing are eligible to request an investigation. This decision surprised observers, particularly given that the Bank had previously accepted similar complaints from Uzbekistan over the same project in 2010. Environmental groups argue that the Board’s procedural reasoning allows it to ignore the project's far-reaching transboundary impacts. Evgeny Simonov, a lead expert at Rivers without Boundaries, stated that the Inspection Panel’s own findings validated the downstream communities’ concerns. He accused the Bank of avoiding accountability by hiding behind technicalities. Alexander Kolotov, director of the same coalition, said the ruling reveals a contradiction between the Bank’s public commitments to inclusive development and its actual response to cross-border grievances. He warned that dismissing downstream voices undermines the principles of equitable and participatory water governance. Environmental experts also caution that the refusal to launch an investigation leaves no recourse for affected communities should their fears materialize. Potential long-term impacts include increased soil salinity, reduced agricultural productivity, and the erosion of traditional rural livelihoods. The Rogun Alert coalition, an alliance of international environmental organizations, announced plans to continue monitoring the situation and to explore alternative mechanisms to protect the environmental rights of the region’s residents. Previous assessments had warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce water flows to the Amu Darya delta by 25% or more, with potentially devastating effects on ecosystems and the wellbeing of up to 10 million people in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Rogun Project

Financing for Tajikistan’s Rogun Project Rises to $500 Million

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has confirmed its decision to increase financing for the construction of Tajikistan’s flagship energy project, the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), to $500 million. New Agreements on Energy, Water, and Transport According to the Tajik president’s press service, the agreement was reached on September 1 in Tianjin during talks between President Emomali Rahmon and AIIB President Jin Liqun. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Heads of State summit. President Rahmon thanked the AIIB for supporting Tajikistan’s infrastructure development and noted that the bank is already involved in four national projects totaling over $430 million. These include the Rogun HPP and the construction of a 920-meter-long road bridge in the Nurabad district. “The parties discussed broad opportunities for cooperation in the field of green energy, including the construction and modernization of power plants of various capacities, as well as the commissioning of solar and wind installations,” the press service stated. Discussions also focused on water resource management, disaster risk reduction, and the deployment of modern monitoring technologies. Other priorities included transport integration, municipal infrastructure renewal, and innovative mechanisms to attract investment. Expanding private sector participation and utilizing innovative financing instruments were also identified as promising areas. Previously Signed Agreements In December 2024, Tajikistan and the AIIB signed a $270 million (1.92 billion yuan) agreement for the first phase of the Rogun development program. According to the Ministry of Finance, the bank’s total commitment now stands at $500 million, to be disbursed in two tranches. During a visit to Rogun on August 27, Rahmon stated that loan negotiations with the AIIB are in their final stages. In total, Tajikistan has secured commitments exceeding $2 billion from development partners and is negotiating an additional $1.7 billion. However, Standard & Poor's (S&P) Global Ratings has noted delays in funding from some international partners, including the World Bank, citing unmet conditions. The agency estimates the total cost of completing Rogun at $6.4 billion. According to S&P, the Tajik government plans to finance half of the project through a consortium of international partners, with the remainder coming from the national budget and project revenues. The proposed financing includes $1.5 billion in non-concessional loans, $850 million in grants, and $550 million in concessional loans. Part of the grant support is contingent on Tajikistan’s classification as a “least developed country,” a status that may be reconsidered in 2026. Rogun: Central Asia’s Largest Hydropower Project Since the start of 2025, 4.3 billion somoni (approximately $451 million) has been allocated from Tajikistan’s state budget for Rogun. In total, over 48.1 billion somoni (roughly $5.04 billion) has been invested in the project since 2008 from both public and external sources. The Rogun Hydropower Plant is poised to become the largest in Central Asia. Once completed, it will have an installed capacity of 3,780 MW and is expected to generate over 14.5 billion kWh annually. Six 630 MW turbines are planned, with full commissioning expected by 2029....

Rogun Dam

Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam Delayed as World Bank Freezes Funding

The future of Tajikistan’s flagship infrastructure project, the Rogun Hydropower Plant, has been thrown into doubt as the World Bank and other development partners delay financing until the government fulfils key conditions, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported. The move reflects growing concerns among environmental groups and downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan over the dam’s ecological risks to the Amu Darya River. A Strategic Asset With Mounting Costs The Rogun project, often hailed as Tajikistan’s greatest national undertaking, is central to the government’s ambitions for energy independence and regional electricity exports. But it also represents one of the country's most significant financial liabilities. Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings recently affirmed Tajikistan’s sovereign credit rating at “B/B” with a stable outlook, but cautioned that Rogun is so costly it may never generate sufficient returns. The agency warned that the project could push the national budget into deficit by the end of 2025. Construction of the dam began in 1976 under the Soviet Union but was suspended during Tajikistan’s civil war. Attempts to restart the project in the early 2000s stalled over disagreements with Russian partners. In 2016, the government relaunched the project with support from the World Bank, awarding the main construction contract to Italy’s Salini Impregilo (now Webuild). That same year, the Vakhsh River was diverted and dam construction resumed. Two turbines were commissioned in 2018 and 2019, but significant progress has since slowed. To complete the plant, Tajikistan must install six additional turbines, raise the dam from its current 135 meters to the planned 335 meters, and secure an estimated $6.4 billion in new funding, roughly 40% of the country’s projected GDP for 2025. Conditions for Continued Support The World Bank has suspended further financing until Tajikistan presents a credible financing strategy that avoids unsustainable public debt, finalizes long-term electricity export agreements, and implements robust dam safety protocols. Without these conditions in place, the Bank has stated it cannot continue its support. Environmental opposition to the project has also intensified. The international coalition Rivers without Boundaries has warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce Amu Darya river flows by more than 25%, accelerating desertification and endangering the livelihoods of up to 10 million people in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Alexander Kolotov, a representative of the coalition, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the World Bank’s board is expected to review a report based on complaints filed by downstream communities, though no specific date has been set. Kolotov emphasized that Rogun poses one of the largest economic risks to Tajikistan and questioned whether international lenders should deepen their involvement. Broader Economic Fragility Tajikistan faces additional vulnerabilities. The country remains heavily reliant on remittances from labor migrants in Russia, lacks economic diversification, and is projected to lose its “least developed country” status in 2026, potentially curtailing its access to concessional aid and financing. For now, the Rogun Hydropower Plant stands as both a symbol of national aspiration and a looming financial gamble. Whether it becomes a cornerstone of regional energy security or a cautionary tale...