seismic risk - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP)

Kyrgyz Energy Ministry Rejects Concerns About Seismic Safety of Future Kambarata-1 HPP

The Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy has dismissed concerns raised by leading seismologists about the seismic safety of the planned Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP), a flagship regional energy project jointly backed by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Speaking at a parliamentary committee meeting on September 9, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, President of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences and Director of the Institute of Seismology, warned that the future dam may be vulnerable to strong earthquakes due to its proposed location. Seismic Warnings from Scientists “The dam is planned in a dangerous area, surrounded by mountains,” Abdrakhmatov said. “It may not withstand a powerful earthquake.” He stressed that preliminary seismic micro-zoning studies had not been conducted and said his institute had written twice to the Ministry of Energy requesting such research, but received no response. He warned that the destruction of Kambarata-1 in the event of a major earthquake could trigger cascading failures downstream, including at the existing Kambarata-2 HPP and other facilities. Ministry and International Experts Respond In a formal statement issued on September 10, the Ministry of Energy rejected the criticism and pointed to a recent review conducted by Swiss engineering consultancy AFRY, which is responsible for updating the feasibility study for the project. According to the ministry, AFRY commissioned a team of international experts, including renowned dam safety specialists Dr. Martin Wieland and Dr. Stefan Ehlers, to carry out a comprehensive seismic analysis of the proposed site. The assessment used geological, tectonic, and seismic data, as well as satellite imagery and historical earthquake records. The experts recommended constructing a curved gravity dam, which they said would improve both the structural stability and hydraulic performance of the plant. AFRY concluded that the dam would withstand projected seismic loads and stated that “its overall behavior in terms of load-bearing capacity is safe.” Ongoing Safety Measures The ministry also stated that further detailed safety studies are planned. These include the creation of a seismic micro-zoning map and the installation of three to five seismic monitoring stations at strategic points: along the dam’s axis, on both riverbanks, at the crest level, and upstream from the site. The Kambarata-1 HPP is expected to become the largest hydropower facility in Kyrgyzstan. With a projected capacity of 1,860 megawatts and average annual generation of 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours, the $4 billion project is seen as a critical step in alleviating chronic electricity shortages in the country. Construction Preparations Underway The Ministry of Energy has reported steady progress in preparatory works. Infrastructure projects currently underway include the construction of access roads, power transmission lines, a substation, a bridge across the Naryn River, and a shift camp for construction workers.

Earthquakes

Earthquakes: Is Central Asia Ready for the Next Seismic Event?

In a recent livestream with a Russian nationalist commentator, prominent Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov was asked what threat most concerns Kazakhs today. While his interlocutor expected a geopolitical answer, perhaps Russia’s military might or imperial ambitions, Shibutov’s response reflected a deeply local fear shared by many in Almaty: a devastating earthquake. Given the region’s seismic history, his concern is far from misplaced. A powerful natural disaster could strike a crippling blow to Almaty, Kazakhstan’s economic and cultural heart, and potentially derail the country’s broader development ambitions. A History of Devastation Almaty lies within the Almaty Seismic Zone, a high-risk area in southeastern Kazakhstan known for producing powerful earthquakes. Several historically significant tremors, Vernensky, Keminsky, Kemino-Chuisky (1936), Chiliksky, Sary-Kamyshsky, and Dzhambulsky, were named after their epicenters. The Verny earthquake struck early on May 28 (June 9 in the modern calendar), 1887. Measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale, it destroyed nearly 1,800 stone buildings and over 800 wooden structures. The epicenter was located just 10-12 kilometers south of the city on the northern slope of the Zailiyskiy Alatau, at a depth of about 60 km. The second major disaster, the Kemin earthquake, occurred on December 22, 1910 (January 4, 1911, by modern reckoning). It struck the Chon-Kemin, Chilik, and Chon-Aksu valleys, with a magnitude of 8.2. Tremors lasted for five minutes, followed by strong aftershocks. The epicenter was about 40 km from Verny, in the eastern Zailiyskiy Alatau. On June 21, 1938, another major quake, later named the Kemin-Chui earthquake, originated at the mouth of the Bolshaya Kemin River. Though its epicenter registered between magnitude 8 and 9, public memory of the event is surprisingly faint. In Almaty, the quake struck at around 5 a.m., jolting residents from sleep. Tremors reached magnitude 6, but most people remained calm. Panic in 2024 This was not the case in January and March 2024, when strong tremors triggered widespread panic in Almaty. Some residents jumped from balconies or stairwells, sustaining injuries. Others fled the city in cars, causing major traffic jams. The panic was most pronounced among residents of modern high-rises. Until the 2000s, Almaty had largely avoided such construction due to seismic safety concerns, a principle rooted in Soviet urban planning. Developers now claim modern technologies ensure these buildings can withstand earthquakes but many residents remain unconvinced. This mistrust has sparked public protests against large-scale development projects, including by members of the Mazhilis, Kazakhstan’s lower house of parliament. Adding to concerns, Soviet-era buildings have significantly deteriorated. Aging infrastructure, waterlogged basements, and amateur renovations, including the removal of load-bearing walls, have further weakened the housing stock. In the event of a major quake, widespread destruction is likely and experts agree that the national budget alone could not absorb the resulting financial fallout. Is the Kemin Fault Awakening? Following the March 2024 earthquake, seismic expert and former head of Kazakhstan’s seismic monitoring network, Mukhtar Khaidarov, warned that the epicenter may have been in the Kemin fault zone, a possible precursor to a larger quake. His...

Earthquake

Seismic Cities: Is Central Asia Prepared for a Major Earthquake?

The recent 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar, which claimed over 3,500 lives and caused structural failures more than 1,000 kilometers away in Bangkok, has once again highlighted the precariousness of life in seismically active regions. “Earthquakes happen on geological faults, which are often sited at the edges of mountain ranges.” Richard Walker, Professor of Tectonics at the University of Oxford told The Times of Central Asia. “Sadly, the edges of mountain ranges are often the best places to live, due to the presence of water and of land for farming.” All Central Asian capitals, except for Kazakhstan’s relocated capital Astana, are located on such terrain. This has historically made them vulnerable. The 1948 earthquake in Ashgabat destroyed almost the entire city; Tashkent suffered a similarly destructive event in 1966, and Almaty was wracked by twin blows in 1887 and 1911. Although no such catastrophic event has occurred in the last half century, the earth beneath the region continues to rumble restlessly. Two quakes in early 2024 left the residents of Almaty unnerved. Last week, on April 14, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake in Tajikistan caused the death of a young boy and damage to around thirty homes near the Chinese border. Though moderate, these tremors serve to remind residents of the active tectonics of the region and raise questions about the structural readiness of buildings and infrastructure should a stronger event occur. Botched Building After the 2023 earthquake on the Turkey-Syria border, which killed over 53,000 people in Turkey alone, authorities launched investigations into over a hundred individuals linked to the construction of buildings that did not withstand the tremors. Such stories were familiar to people who grew up in the Soviet Union. In the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia, tens of thousands died in Leninakan (now Gyumri). Many of the casualties were put down to the collapse of identikit 9-storey tower blocks built in the Brezhnev era. These were designed to withstand a magnitude 7 earthquake; in the event, the 6.8 magnitude quake that struck Leninakan caused 72 out of 78 of these buildings to collapse. In a bitter irony, many older, pre-Soviet structures remained intact. One team of international inspectors blamed “very low construction standards and suspect joint details” in Leninakan for the scale of the disaster. Similar precast tower blocks to those that collapsed in Armenia can be seen across the former USSR. According to the Uzbek media, the Cabinet of Ministers estimated in 2023 that approximately 70% of private housing in the country failed to meet current earthquake resistance standards. “The 2023 earthquake in Turkey was a tragic reminder of the importance of strict compliance with building codes and continuous quality control of construction in seismic regions,” Daulet Sarsenbayev, director of the Kazakhstan’s National Scientific Center for Seismological Observations and Research, told TCA. “Such events provide valuable lessons for all countries, including Kazakhstan, in terms of the need to strengthen the regulatory framework, increase transparency in the construction industry, and invest in resilient infrastructure.” In response to the...