Kazakhstan’s Migration Trends: Growth in Skilled Labor, No Signs of Chinese Influx

A positive migration trend is emerging in Kazakhstan, with new data indicating a significant increase in net migration. In 2024, the country recorded a migration balance of 17,200 people, an 85% increase from the previous year. The gap between arrivals and departures expanded 2.3 times, with 30,000 people moving to Kazakhstan compared to 12,800 leaving the country. Experts from the Institute of Public Policy highlighted that Kazakhstan’s emigration rate has reached a historic low in contrast to outflows observed in other countries. In 2024, net migration losses were significantly higher in Georgia (-39,200), Israel (-18,200), Uzbekistan (-14,300), and Bulgaria (-9,200). Kazakhstan has seen a significant reduction in emigration. In the early 2000s, the annual outflow was around 289,000 people, but by 2024, this number had dropped to the aforementioned 12,800. Meanwhile, the inflow of migrants continues to rise. Last year, 12,200 people arrived from Uzbekistan, 8,100 from Russia, 2,000 from China, 1,400 from Mongolia, and 1,100 from Turkmenistan. Additionally, several hundred people from Turkey, Germany, Georgia, the United States, and South Korea also relocated to Kazakhstan. Currently, 13,000 foreign specialists are employed in Kazakhstan’s economy, including 5,300 in construction, 2,600 in industry, and 700 in agriculture. The country is also attracting international students, some of whom choose to stay after graduation, suggesting that Kazakhstan is on track to become a leading destination for skilled professionals in Central Asia and the CIS. In November 2023, Kazakhstan and China implemented a visa-free regime, allowing short-term travel between the two countries. However, this agreement does not grant Chinese citizens the right to work, study, or engage in missionary activities in Kazakhstan. Despite this, social media was flooded with concerns that millions of Chinese citizens would move to Kazakhstan, take jobs, and even claim territory. Experts dismissed these fears as unfounded, arguing that the visa-free regime was primarily designed to boost trade and tourism rather than encourage large-scale migration. More than a year and a half has passed since the agreement came into effect, and no such wave of migration has occurred. Political scientist Marat Shibutov criticized the initial panic, stating: “Those who spread fear about mass Chinese migration should look in the mirror because nothing has happened. The Chinese do not need to come here.” According to Shibutov, young and ambitious Chinese migrants prefer destinations such as Singapore, the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia. Official data further debunks fears of Chinese migration. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the number of Chinese citizens moving to Kazakhstan permanently has been steadily decreasing since 2017. Most of those who do relocate are ethnic Kazakhs returning to their ancestral homeland, a process actively encouraged by the Kazakh government through state programs for repatriates, known as Kandas. The figures speak for themselves. In 2017, 3,000 Chinese citizens moved to Kazakhstan. By 2023, this number had dropped to just 416, of whom 398 were ethnic Kazakhs and only four were ethnic Chinese. Additionally, the vast majority of repatriated ethnic Kazakhs, 63.5%, came from Uzbekistan, while fewer than...