TCA Interviews - The Times Of Central Asia

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U.S. Tariffs

Trump’s Tariffs May Hurt Kazakhstan’s Economy, Expert Warns

On July 7, U.S. President Donald Trump informed Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev that Washington will impose a 25% tariff on goods from Kazakhstan, effective August 1, 2025. Tokayev responded on July 10, affirming Kazakhstan’s commitment to "developing fair, predictable, and mutually beneficial trade relations" with the United States. He emphasized Kazakhstan’s readiness for “constructive dialogue aimed at finding a rational solution to trade issues,” expressing his hope that a compromise will be reached. While officials and analysts in Kazakhstan have downplayed the potential economic impact, citing limited trade volume and the exclusion of key exports such as oil and metals, economist Olzhas Baidildinov has challenged this optimism. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, he outlines the potential long-term damage to Kazakhstan's economy and investment climate. TCA: What is the situation following the announcement of the increased tariffs? Baidildinov: The immediate damage is minimal, which is why many in the media and expert circles remain optimistic. Kazakhstan exports about $2 billion in goods to the U.S., of which $1.8 billion are raw materials, oil, metals, rare earth elements, silver, and precious metals, all previously exempt from duties. The remaining $200 million, mostly manufactured goods and agricultural products, will now be subject to the 25% tariff. Though small in macroeconomic terms, this is a significant blow to exporters and a deterrent for future investors. TCA: What are the broader implications of these tariffs for Kazakhstan? Baidildinov: The most serious consequence will be on investment. Domestic experts often lack a long-term view, rarely looking beyond a few months. But consider this: if you were an investor planning to produce in Kazakhstan and export to the U.S., would you proceed under these conditions? A 25% tariff today could become 50% or 100% tomorrow. This unpredictability will scare off potential investors. Trump’s message is clear: produce in the U.S. or face penalties. For Kazakhstan, there is little upside. The country’s oil and gas sector has made strides in localizing production of goods that could replace Western imports, but these products will now face higher entry barriers into the U.S. market. American companies may also become more cautious about engaging with Kazakh suppliers. More broadly, this signals that the U.S. does not regard Kazakhstan as a partner in high-tech manufacturing. Even American firms considering setting up production in Kazakhstan to benefit from low costs would now find the economics less favorable. Other countries, including EU members, may follow the U.S. example, reinforcing the perception of Kazakhstan as merely a source of raw materials. TCA: Do you expect further pressure from the U.S. or its allies? Baidildinov: This marks the beginning of a global tariff war. Other countries will likely adopt similar protectionist policies to defend their industries, especially in light of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. European manufacturers, for example, may pressure their governments to implement similar tariffs. This trend could shape global trade for years to come, with Kazakhstan potentially caught in the crossfire. TCA: In your opinion, is the U.S. tariff increase...

TCA Interviews

“I Dreamed of Writing Without Borders”: An Interview With a Kazakh Journalist in Russia

Elmira, a journalist from Astana, moved to St. Petersburg six years ago to study journalism. Since then, she has transformed from a reserved first-year student into a working reporter, navigating culture shock, social media censorship, and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. In this candid interview, Elmira discusses Russian bureaucracy, casual racism, and finding her voice in the Russian media landscape. She also offers reflections for others considering a similar path. TCA: Why did you choose to study in St. Petersburg rather than stay in Kazakhstan or go elsewhere? Elmira: I applied before the war in Ukraine began. At that time, Russia seemed like a land of opportunity, where you could earn a decent living even without connections, which is rare in Kazakhstan. Plus, Russia offers state-funded spots for foreign students, as long as you pass the entrance exams. Kazakh journalism programs felt underdeveloped to me; they lacked tradition, experienced faculty, and institutional history. In contrast, Russian journalism schools had all of that. Also, I wanted to write in Russian. My family always spoke Russian at home, and Kazakh was harder for me, an experience common among northern Kazakhs. Studying elsewhere was financially out of reach, and among CIS countries, Russia was the most appealing. TCA: Why journalism? And did your expectations match reality? Elmira: I’ve loved writing since childhood, school news, travel stories, anything. I imagined journalism as limitless creativity. In reality, it has even more constraints than other fields: editorial policies, laws, and censorship. Still, I wasn’t disappointed. Restrictions force you to innovate, and a strong story can always be told within the right format. TCA: What were your first impressions of university life? Did you feel like part of an international community or an outsider? Elmira: The university itself was a pleasant surprise. Many professors were open-minded and genuinely interested in students’ ideas. That made me feel I belonged. But the student environment was tougher. Although classmates claimed, “We’re not racist,” jokes about Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Caucasians were common, and occasionally about Kazakhs too, disguised as “harmless humor.” These moments were alienating. You’re sitting in the same lectures, working on the same projects, but still feel like a stranger. TCA: Was the Kazakh diaspora in St. Petersburg helpful during your adjustment? Elmira: Definitely. The community is very supportive. Besides the consulate, groups like Atameken and Dostar host cultural events. I couldn’t volunteer, but I never missed Nauryz or Independence Day. Just being able to speak with fellow Kazakhs helped me feel at home. TCA: What domestic or cultural challenges surprised you the most? Elmira: Dorm life was tough. Once, I overheard roommates say, “How can you live with a Chinese woman? She must smell bad.” These moments were rare but memorable. Still, there were warm experiences. In the dorm, I befriended students from Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Tajikistan. We cooked together, shared stories, and supported each other. That helped me to feel part of a community. I was also heartened that many Russian students were genuinely curious...

TCA Interviews

Interview: President of COP29 Calls for Caspian Summit to Tackle Environmental Crisis

Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s presidential representative on climate issues and president of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29), spoke to The Times of Central Asia about the urgent need for a summit of Caspian states to address the region’s worsening ecological crisis. TCA: Central Asia and the South Caucasus are among the regions most vulnerable to the climate crisis. In your view, what are the most serious threats facing the region today, and why? Babayev: You’re right to group Central Asia and the South Caucasus together, as both regions border the Caspian Sea, a shared ecosystem facing severe climate pressures. The most pressing issue is water scarcity, which has worsened in recent years. This stems from climate change and has contributed to widespread desertification across Central Asia, the Caucasus, and surrounding areas like the Caspian Sea, the Aral Sea, and Iran’s Lake Urmia. These processes are interconnected, but the drying of the Caspian Sea is one of the central challenges. At the recent Nevsky International Environmental Congress, Azerbaijan proposed a summit to address this crisis. The Aral Sea offers a stark precedent; its desiccation triggered not only environmental degradation but also social upheaval, including mass migration. Our focus now must be on mitigation and adaptation. Experts widely agree that the Caspian’s water level will continue to drop over the next 15–20 years. The impact is especially acute in Kazakhstan’s Atyrau and Aktau regions, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, offshore energy operations, and ports. The Caspian has now fallen below the lowest level recorded since the 19th century. While the situation cannot be reversed quickly, coordinated action is essential, especially measures to protect biodiversity and boost the water flow from key rivers such as the Kura, Ural, Terek, Samur, and Volga, which have seen significant declines. TCA: How is climate change affecting transboundary water resources? Is there a risk of regional competition over water shortages, and what strategies could Central Asian countries adopt? Babayev: It’s natural for states to prioritize national interests, but this underscores the need for regional coordination. A summit of the five Caspian littoral states could align strategies — particularly around restoring river inflows to the Caspian. A unified political approach could avert emerging tensions over water use. [caption id="attachment_32521" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Image: TCA[/caption] TCA: Are there adequate mechanisms for coordinating climate strategies between Central Asia and the South Caucasus? Can a supranational climate agenda, akin to the EU or ASEAN, be developed? Babayev: The global landscape is evolving rapidly, with new technologies and scientific advances offering better tools for decision-making. Artificial intelligence, for instance, can improve forecasting and scenario modeling. Azerbaijan has integrated AI into state programs and is fostering regional cooperation in climate science. Building shared scientific capacity is the first step toward a common agenda. TCA: Given the region’s hydrocarbon wealth, how realistic is a long-term decarbonization of the energy sector? Babayev: Decarbonization must go hand in hand with biodiversity protection. While oil and gas operations will persist, Azerbaijan is actively investing in renewables. We’ve signed agreements with...

TCA Interviews

Smart Mining Plus: How International Science Diplomacy Works in Kazakhstan

In an era where sustainable development and technological innovation are reshaping global industries, international cooperation has become a cornerstone of progress. One such example is the collaboration between Nazarbayev University (NU) in Kazakhstan and Hokkaido University in Japan. Supported by a $3.2 million grant under Japan’s Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) program, their joint project, Next-generation Smart Mining Plus for Sustainable Resources Development, aims to modernize mining through smart technologies and knowledge exchange. The research is scheduled to run until March 31, 2030, offering a long-term framework for technology transfer and institutional capacity building. Fidelis Suorineni, Professor at the NU School of Mining and Geosciences and a leading expert in mining systems and geotechnical engineering, shares his vision and emphasizes the benefits of this international partnership. TCA: What makes your collaboration with Hokkaido University unique? Suorineni: The partnership with Hokkaido University is special not only because of the institutional synergies but also due to building a foundation of personal trust and continuity. My professional relationship with Professor Yohei Kawamura of Hokkaido University dates back to 2013, when we were both working in Australia -- he at Curtin University and I as the Inaugural Chair of Mine Geotechnical Engineering at the University of New South Wales. Despite relocating to different parts of the world, we have continued our collaboration ever since. Japan is globally recognized as a technology hub, especially in mining and environmental technologies. Its institutions develop, manufacture, and supply cutting-edge solutions. On the other hand, Kazakhstan is rich in natural resources; it ranks sixth globally in terms of reserves and is a leader in uranium and chromite production. This partnership is thus strategically complementary. Through this collaboration, Nazarbayev University gains access to Japanese technologies that support safe, efficient, and environmentally sustainable resource extraction, technologies that are also essential for Japan’s manufacturing industries. Additionally, both countries benefit through mutual education and expertise development. While Japanese universities such as Hokkaido and Akita offer strong academic programs, they have limited access to physical mining sites. In contrast, our School of Mining and Geosciences in Kazakhstan combines world-class faculty with direct access to operational mines, allowing hands-on training for students. For the past five years, Japanese students and faculty have visited NU annually for two to three weeks to participate in specialized courses and mine visits. Likewise, each year, two of our graduate students and select faculty members travel to Japan to attend six-week short courses, which include laboratory work and field trips. This exchange ensures a balanced and mutually beneficial transfer of knowledge and experience. TCA: How will the SATREPS Smart Mining Plus project benefit Kazakhstan specifically? Suorineni: The SATREPS project brings significant benefits to Kazakhstan. Its full title, Next-generation Smart Mining Plus for Sustainable Resources Development, captures its ambitious scope. At its core, the initiative aims to integrate current and emerging mining technologies into the local context, promoting more sustainable, efficient, and environmentally responsible methods of resource extraction. For Kazakhstan, this initiative represents a step forward in managing...

TCA Interviews

Dr. Atakan Varol: Kazakhstan Should Play an Active Role in Shaping the Future of AI

The Times of Central Asia spoke with Dr. Hussein Atakan Varol, a professor of robotics and PhD in electrical engineering, who serves as General Director of the Institute of Smart Systems and Artificial Intelligence (ISSAI) at Nazarbayev University (NU). Dr. Varol discusses ISSAI’s research initiatives, the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in Kazakhstan, and the country's potential to lead in AI innovation. ISSAI’s Mission and Collaborations TCA: What is the mission of ISSAI, and what are its key focus areas? Varol: At ISSAI, our mission is to conduct cutting-edge AI research and develop practical, impactful solutions that benefit Kazakhstan and the broader global community. We specialize in large-scale generative AI models, speech recognition, computer vision, and AI infrastructure. Our goal is to establish sovereign AI capabilities in Kazakhstan, minimizing dependence on external technologies while maintaining a strong ethical foundation. All our research adheres to principles of "AI for Good" and "AI for Kazakhstan," ensuring that developments remain responsible and socially beneficial. TCA: How does ISSAI collaborate with the public sector, private companies, and international organizations? Varol: We actively engage with government agencies, local businesses, and global AI research institutions. Our partnerships focus on AI model development, data collection, and deploying AI-driven solutions. Access to computational resources remains a key challenge, and we collaborate strategically to secure the infrastructure needed to scale AI projects in Kazakhstan. Notable Projects and Local Impact TCA: What are some of ISSAI’s most promising current developments? Varol: A highlight is SoyleApp, which provides real-time speech recognition, text-to-speech, and multilingual translation. It has vast potential in education, public services, and cross-language communication. We’ve also developed the Mangitas 01 Inference Server, a vital step for Kazakhstan’s AI ecosystem. In the absence of AI supercomputers, we built Mangitas 01 using commercial off-the-shelf components, allowing local deployment of AI models with enhanced data security. We’re now working on expanding this line to support our Oylan language-vision model, paving the way for more advanced multimodal AI applications. TCA: Have ISSAI’s solutions been successfully implemented in Kazakhstan? Varol: Yes. SoyleApp is being integrated into governmental and enterprise systems to improve accessibility for Kazakh-speaking users. Mangitas 01 serves as a prototype for local AI infrastructure, enabling organizations to operate AI systems within Kazakhstan, enhancing both data protection and performance. TCA: How does the local context influence your AI development? Varol: Kazakhstan’s linguistic and cultural diversity demands AI systems capable of understanding and producing content in Kazakh, Russian, and other regional languages. We've created tailored datasets and models to meet these needs. Moreover, the country's limited AI infrastructure has led us to focus on efficient and scalable solutions like Mangitas 01. [caption id="attachment_31080" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Dr. Atakan Varol; image: NU.edu[/caption] The Future of AI and Kazakhstan’s Role TCA: How do you see AI evolving over the next 5-10 years? Varol: The next leap is toward multimodal and sparse generative models that handle text, images, and audio simultaneously. With proper investment, Kazakhstan can contribute meaningfully to this frontier. We’re also exploring edge AI, which enables...

TCA Interviews

From Uzbekistan to St. Petersburg: An International Student’s Journey Through Challenges and Change

Five years ago, Dilshot moved from Uzbekistan to St. Petersburg to pursue higher education. Like many international students, he faced challenges adapting, cultural differences, and other unexpected difficulties. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Dilshot to learn how his life in Russia has unfolded, what obstacles he encountered, and why his future in the city has taken an unexpected turn. TCA: Why did you choose to study in St. Petersburg? What factors influenced your decision? Dilshot: After finishing school in Uzbekistan, I decided to continue my education in Russia, specifically in St. Petersburg. First of all, I believed that Russia provided high-quality education, especially in IT, where it is ahead of other CIS countries. Additionally, at that time there was no war, and I never expected the situation to take such a turn. The pandemic also played a role. Since entrance exams were conducted online, it became easier to apply. Moreover, Russian universities offered many state-funded places, and I was fortunate enough to receive a scholarship. While Uzbekistan has good universities, particularly in Tashkent, tuition fees were high, and I couldn't find a suitable program in my field. Moving to a new city and country was exciting and I was full of hope, but the reality turned out to be more complicated. TCA: How would you describe the atmosphere at the university and among students? Dilshot: The university had a relatively open and multicultural environment, which helped with adaptation. Many students were supportive, regardless of nationality. However, stereotypes still existed. Occasionally, I heard remarks like, "What are you doing here? Go work at a construction site." Kazakh students were often mistaken for Chinese without people even bothering to ask about their nationality. For students from CIS countries who spoke Russian, adaptation was easier. Professors and students generally considered us as “their own”, though with some reservations. However, foreign students, particularly from China, faced a different attitude. Some professors showed impatience if a student struggled to express themselves in Russian. In dormitories, tensions arose; Chinese students were sometimes mocked over minor disputes, whereas CIS students were treated with more understanding. TCA: Did you experience prejudice from your professors? Dilshot: Some professors viewed me through the lens of stereotypes, making me feel isolated. While I didn’t face direct discrimination, there were moments when my knowledge was questioned, or my achievements were met with unnecessary surprise. One instance stands out: a lecturer made a point of noting where students were from. I happened to excel in his subject, but I still don’t understand why he felt the need to keep track of our nationalities. On a few occasions, I received high grades with remarks like, “Wow, you speak Russian so well!” Of course, I wasn’t going to complain about good grades, but it made me feel uncomfortable as if my achievements were being measured against lower expectations. TCA: Did participating in student activities help you integrate? Dilshot: Yes, I got involved in student projects and activities early on. This helped break down...