Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s presidential representative on climate issues and president of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29), spoke to The Times of Central Asia about the urgent need for a summit of Caspian states to address the region’s worsening ecological crisis.
TCA: Central Asia and the South Caucasus are among the regions most vulnerable to the climate crisis. In your view, what are the most serious threats facing the region today, and why?
Babayev: You’re right to group Central Asia and the South Caucasus together, as both regions border the Caspian Sea, a shared ecosystem facing severe climate pressures. The most pressing issue is water scarcity, which has worsened in recent years. This stems from climate change and has contributed to widespread desertification across Central Asia, the Caucasus, and surrounding areas like the Caspian Sea, the Aral Sea, and Iran’s Lake Urmia.
These processes are interconnected, but the drying of the Caspian Sea is one of the central challenges. At the recent Nevsky International Environmental Congress, Azerbaijan proposed a summit to address this crisis. The Aral Sea offers a stark precedent; its desiccation triggered not only environmental degradation but also social upheaval, including mass migration. Our focus now must be on mitigation and adaptation.
Experts widely agree that the Caspian’s water level will continue to drop over the next 15–20 years. The impact is especially acute in Kazakhstan’s Atyrau and Aktau regions, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, offshore energy operations, and ports.
The Caspian has now fallen below the lowest level recorded since the 19th century. While the situation cannot be reversed quickly, coordinated action is essential, especially measures to protect biodiversity and boost the water flow from key rivers such as the Kura, Ural, Terek, Samur, and Volga, which have seen significant declines.
TCA: How is climate change affecting transboundary water resources? Is there a risk of regional competition over water shortages, and what strategies could Central Asian countries adopt?
Babayev: It’s natural for states to prioritize national interests, but this underscores the need for regional coordination. A summit of the five Caspian littoral states could align strategies — particularly around restoring river inflows to the Caspian. A unified political approach could avert emerging tensions over water use.
Image: TCA
TCA: Are there adequate mechanisms for coordinating climate strategies between Central Asia and the South Caucasus? Can a supranational climate agenda, akin to the EU or ASEAN, be developed?
Babayev: The global landscape is evolving rapidly, with new technologies and scientific advances offering better tools for decision-making. Artificial intelligence, for instance, can improve forecasting and scenario modeling. Azerbaijan has integrated AI into state programs and is fostering regional cooperation in climate science. Building shared scientific capacity is the first step toward a common agenda.
TCA: Given the region’s hydrocarbon wealth, how realistic is a long-term decarbonization of the energy sector?
Babayev: Decarbonization must go hand in hand with biodiversity protection. While oil and gas operations will persist, Azerbaijan is actively investing in renewables. We’ve signed agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on exporting green electricity to Europe and created green energy zones domestically. This diversification reflects our commitment to reducing harmful emissions.
TCA: What practical value can the region offer in meeting global climate goals?
Babayev: Regional actions have global consequences. The Caspian experience can inform international climate policy, just as we learn from others. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) is helping us draft a special Caspian action plan, which could serve as a model for global climate action.
TCA: How effective have COP29 goals been so far, and has global geopolitics affected progress?
Babayev: A preparatory climate meeting in Bonn this June will assess regional progress ahead of COP30 in Brazil. Our goal is to reinforce climate protection efforts, set new targets, and adopt innovative tools.
TCA: What impact has the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement had?
Babayev: With over 190 signatories, the agreement endures, but the U.S., a major emitter, plays a pivotal role. Its withdrawal in 2016 and again now presents setbacks, but global efforts must continue. Recent progress on carbon markets and the loss and damage fund demonstrates the agreement’s resilience.
TCA: Can middle powers like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan act as stabilizing forces or alternative centers in the global system?
Babayev: Absolutely. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are well-positioned as regional leaders. Leadership is not only about size or GDP – ambition and vision matter. Our countries are ready to help shape global solutions.
