Why Strong Economic Growth in Central Asia Masks Underlying Risks

Central Asian countries are significantly outperforming the global average in GDP growth, largely due to differing economic models across the region. However, rapid expansion does not remove deep structural vulnerabilities. As early as March, data showed that the combined economies of Central Asian countries grew by nearly 7% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The World Bank estimates regional growth at 6.2%, while the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) places it at 6.6%. These calculations include Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; Turkmenistan is excluded due to limited statistical transparency. By comparison, growth rates in advanced economies are much lower. The EDB expects around 1.6% growth in the U.S. and approximately 1.1% in the eurozone in 2026, while China’s economy is projected to expand by about 4.6%. Nevertheless, experts note that the region’s economic outlook remains complicated by high inflation, income inequality, and continued dependence on external factors. Investment activity and domestic demand have been the key drivers of growth, according to the EDB. Kazakhstan recorded its highest growth in 13 years (6.5%), with industry leading the expansion: mining grew by 9.4% and manufacturing by 6.4%. In 2026, the non-resource sector is expected to play a greater role. Kyrgyzstan has led the region in GDP growth for the third consecutive year: GDP grew by 11.1% in 2025 and by 9% in January 2026. In Uzbekistan, GDP increased by 7.7% in 2025 (up from 6.7% a year earlier), supported by investment, trade, services, and construction. Tajikistan’s GDP rose by 8.4% in 2025, matching the previous year’s performance. Growth continues to be driven by expanding industrial production and strong domestic demand. Early 2026 data suggest this momentum is holding. Uzbekistan’s Record In April, the World Bank highlighted Uzbekistan’s resilience to external challenges and strong growth dynamics. According to its updated report, the country’s 2025 GDP growth was revised upward by 1.5 percentage points to 7.7%. The outlook is 6.4% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027. Key drivers include high global gold prices, investment inflows, expanded lending, and ongoing structural reforms. Rising household incomes have also played an important role, supported by remittances, which increased by 37% last year to reach $18.9 billion. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan ranked among the fastest-growing economies in developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, alongside Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The region as a whole is experiencing its highest growth rates in 14 years. At the same time, analysts point to persistent structural constraints, including a large public sector and the dominance of state-owned enterprises, which hinder private sector development. External risks, including geopolitical instability and potential disruptions in energy and fertilizer supplies, remain significant. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s GDP exceeded €133 billion, compared to approximately €56 billion nine years earlier. Over the same period, GDP per capita rose from about €1,750 to around €3,220, nearly doubling average income levels. Investment in fixed capital increased by more than 15% year-on-year in 2025, while export value grew by over 33%. Persistently high global gold prices played a major role: export...

Tajikistan Expands Asset Disclosure Requirements for Officials

Tajikistan has broadened the scope of officials required to submit income and asset declarations, as part of amendments to its Anti-Corruption Law. The updated legislation now includes employees of the National Bank, other state-run credit and financial institutions, and officials working in Tajikistan’s foreign missions and representative offices abroad. The revised law updates parts 4 and 5 of Article 21 and introduces six new provisions detailing the conditions and procedures for filing declarations. Officials who fail to submit required information or who submit “knowingly false” declarations, face dismissal or removal from office. Under the new rules, declarations must be filed by individuals performing organizational, managerial, administrative, or financial functions at state enterprises and institutions, as well as entities in which the state holds a stake of at least 50%. Technical and maintenance personnel are exempt. A specific clause obligates civil servants in diplomatic missions and other foreign-based institutions to file a property certificate. The range of assets subject to disclosure has been significantly expanded. Officials must now declare: residential properties, dachas, and other real estate; garden and agricultural plots, with size specified; vehicles and equipment; livestock and poultry; shares in commercial enterprises; securities and bank deposits; precious metals and gemstones, both in Tajikistan and abroad. The income declaration must include earnings from primary and secondary employment, as well as income from academic, creative, and teaching activities; property rentals; agricultural production; bank deposits; and other sources, with specific identification of income type. Newly appointed officials must file a declaration upon taking office. All officials are required to submit annual declarations by April 1 for the preceding year. High-ranking officials appointed by the president or the government must file with the tax authority at their place of residence and submit a certified paper copy to the Executive Office of the President. Members of parliament report via the Majlisi Namoyandagon, while village and settlement leaders submit declarations to district or city administrations. Failure to comply, or the discovery of false information, may result in denial of appointment or dismissal from a current post. Tajikistan introduced asset declaration requirements in 2004, initially covering only real estate, land, and securities. In 2020, the rules were broadened to include other forms of property, including livestock. However, declarations have never been made public. In 2019, then-head of the Civil Service Agency, Juma Davlat, explained that “Tajik society is not ready for this.” He added that the issue of transparency would be reconsidered “once the level of thinking and understanding in society rises to the level of Western countries.”