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Economy

Kazakhstan Targets Raising Wage Share of GDP to 40%

The Kazakh government is preparing a series of measures aimed at accelerating wage growth and increasing the overall wage fund, with the goal of raising its share in the country’s GDP to 40%, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov announced during an expanded government meeting. According to government estimates, household incomes are currently growing more slowly than the broader economy and corporate profits, including those generated with state support. At present, wages account for roughly 31% of Kazakhstan’s GDP, a figure considered relatively high by Central Asian standards but still below the levels seen in developed economies, where wage funds typically exceed 40% of GDP. Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in 2025 reached $20.1 billion in monetary terms, with the economy expanding at an annual rate of 6.5%, according to official data. To address the income gap, the government is developing a comprehensive package that includes financial, tax, and regulatory incentives for employers to raise wages. The initiative also prioritizes the creation of new, decently paid jobs, upskilling of the workforce, and reducing the financial burden on citizens. Real income growth has been designated a key economic policy priority for 2026. A complementary role will be played by the upcoming Joint Action Program for 2026-2028, developed by the Cabinet, the financial regulator, and the National Bank. The program aims to stabilize the macroeconomic environment and improve public welfare, setting a target of household income growth at a rate of at least 2-3% above inflation each year. According to official statistics, the average monthly salary in Kazakhstan stood at approximately $873 by the end of the third quarter of 2025. However, earlier reports indicated that the minimum wage will remain frozen at $172 in 2026, despite prior commitments to increase it.

Economy

Kazakh Government to Reconsider Minimum Wage Increase No Earlier Than 2027

The Kazakh Cabinet of Ministers does not plan to revisit the issue of raising the minimum wage before 2027-2028, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin. Earlier this year, in June, Minister of Labor and Social Protection Svetlana Zhakupova had announced plans to raise the minimum wage from January 1, 2026. At the time, the minimum wage stood at approximately $163, and Finance Minister Madi Takiev indicated that an increase to just over $172 was under consideration. However, in August, Zhumangarin announced that the minimum wage would remain frozen at its current level. Speaking at a government meeting this week, Zhumangarin confirmed that a review of the minimum wage is not scheduled in the near term. “In 2027-2028, the issue of raising the minimum wage will be considered,” he said, presenting a draft program of joint actions by the government, the National Bank, and the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM) aimed at macroeconomic stabilization and improving the population’s well-being from 2026 to 2028. Under the program, more than 100 investment projects in the manufacturing and agro-industrial sectors are to be launched annually to support employment. “The program’s priority is to increase real incomes by promoting high-quality, sustainable economic growth and reducing inflation. To this end, a set of tools has been developed across key areas of economic policy,” Zhumangarin stated. To curb inflation, the government plans to saturate the domestic market with local goods, strengthen pricing oversight, and tackle monopolistic practices. Zhumangarin also outlined plans to enhance transparency on e-commerce platforms. This includes requiring disclosure of commission fees included in the cost of goods, as well as optimizing commission structures for trading platforms and intermediaries. To protect consumers, dual pricing will be introduced, listing prices both with and without installment plans. A separate priority will focus on boosting long-term economic productivity through improvements in labor efficiency, effective employment, and capital modernization. These efforts aim to reduce the persistent gap between GDP growth and wage growth. Between 2026 and 2028, the government expects real income to grow by at least 2-3% annually. “At the end of the first nine months, nominal wage growth stood at 10%, but real growth was negative due to inflation,” Zhumangarin said at a briefing. “Our task is to ensure that inflation does not erode incomes. If we aim for real income growth of 2-3%, this means nominal growth must exceed inflation by that margin in the coming years.” As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, inflation has significantly eroded household income this year, driven by Kazakhstan’s reliance on imports, rising utility rates, and an increased tax burden.

Inflation

Inflation in Kazakhstan “Eating Away” at Incomes: Authorities Struggle for Answers

Inflation in Kazakhstan is continuing to erode household incomes, driven by the country’s dependence on imports, rising utility tariffs, and increasing tax burdens. While living costs soar, wages remain sluggish, forcing many families to allocate most of their earnings to essentials such as food, medicine, and utilities. Rising Prices, Stagnant Wages As of August, annual inflation had reached 12.2%, and experts warn it could climb even higher by year’s end. The National Bank’s original 2025 inflation target of 5% has proven to be overly optimistic. “This is a negative, sad trend. It shows that not enough measures have been taken. That it was necessary to tighten monetary policy earlier. It was necessary to contain inflation risks,” said Ramazan Dosov, chief analyst at the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan. The National Bank’s base rate, its primary instrument for controlling inflation, currently stands at 16.5%. Financier Rasul Rysmambetov notes that the rate is unlikely to be lowered in the near future. However, high interest rates also reduce access to loans for businesses, curbing investment. Despite frequent government statements about inflation-control measures, experts argue that artificial price regulation offers only temporary relief. In his September 8 address to the nation, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev acknowledged the severity of the issue, stating, “Today, the main problem is high inflation, which is eating away at economic indicators and household incomes. There is no ready-made solution to this problem.” Tokayev called for coordinated efforts across government agencies. At the beginning of 2025, Kazakhstan’s average monthly salary was reported at 424,200 KZT (about $800), reflecting a 24% increase over the previous year. However, this figure obscures wide regional disparities. In many areas, typical monthly salaries range between 180,000 and 230,000 KZT ($330-430). Per capita income reached 194,000 KZT ($362), up 17% from early 2023, but not enough to keep pace with inflation. According to kazkredit.kz, average families now spend up to 95% of their income on day-to-day expenses. In 2023, 52% of income went toward food; that figure has risen to more than 54% in 2025. Halyk Finance, cited by inbusiness.kz, reports that more than half of Kazakhstan’s workers earn below the national average. Salary data reveals stark income inequalities across sectors, with higher wages in mining, finance, and telecommunications, and significantly lower wages in agriculture, healthcare, and public administration. Analyst Arslan Aronov notes that although nominal wages increased by 11.3% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, real wage growth was effectively zero due to inflation. Public sentiment reflects the strain. Economists at KZTnomika reported a slight easing of inflation expectations in August 2025, but overall confidence in price stability remains low. Eighty-two percent of survey respondents reported rising food costs, with meat and dairy products leading the list. Among non-food items, medicines, clothing, and cleaning products were most frequently cited. For paid services, rising costs for housing, internet, mobile communication, and healthcare were prominent concerns. Background and Analysis Kazakhstan’s struggle with inflation is rooted in both external shocks and structural...

Economy

Tajikistan Raises Minimum Monthly Wage to $110 Amid Broad Income Hikes

Effective September 1, Tajikistan has implemented a nationwide increase in salaries, pensions, and scholarships, ranging from 10% to 30% across various sectors. The country’s minimum wage is now officially set at 1,000 Tajikistani somoni (TJS) per month, approximately $110. This marks a 25% increase from the previous rate of 800 TJS ($88). “This means that from September 1, 2025, the monthly salary of employees of all institutions, organizations, and enterprises, regardless of ownership, must not be less than 1,000 TJS,” the official decree states. The salary hikes apply broadly. Employees of kindergartens and general education schools will see a 30% increase. Teachers at universities and research institutions will receive a 20% raise, matching the increase granted to doctors, chief physicians, nurses, and other healthcare personnel. The same 20% boost also extends to social workers, including staff at elderly care homes and facilities for people with disabilities, as well as to cultural sector employees, such as those working in theaters, libraries, museums, media, and public broadcasting. Civil servants at all levels of government have also received a 20% salary increase. In parallel, insurance, labor, and social pensions have been increased by 10%. Scholarships, including presidential scholarships and other academic grants, have also been raised, with the exception of stipends for cadets in military universities and the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The 2025 state budget includes provisions to finance these increases. Funding sources include surplus revenue collections, local taxes, free budget balances, the Social Insurance and Pension Fund, and reallocation of reserve and discretionary funds. Total budget revenues are projected at TJS 49.6 billion (approximately $5.45 billion), with around 65% expected to come from tax revenues. The government forecasts a 20.8% increase in tax collections compared to 2024. Spending on public sector wages, pensions, and scholarships now accounts for more than 35% of the national budget. In 2025, the total wage fund has reached nearly TJS 13 billion ($1.43 billion), marking a 35.7% rise year-on-year. Pension allocations total TJS 5.1 billion ($561 million), while benefits and scholarships are funded at TJS 350 million ($38.5 million) and TJS 280 million ($30.8 million), respectively, each reflecting a 25% to 26% increase over last year. Despite the official wage growth, low salaries remain a persistent issue for many Tajik citizens. As consumer prices continue to rise, the increases are widely viewed as a form of income indexation rather than a substantial improvement in living standards.

Wages

Tajikistan Average Salary Rises but Trails Behind Central Asia

Tajikistan has recorded a rise in both nominal and real average wages, yet the country continues to report the lowest salary levels in Central Asia. The income gap with Kazakhstan and Russia remains especially pronounced. Nominal and Real Wages In June 2025, the average nominal monthly wage in Tajikistan reached 3,136.12 somoni ($314), marking a 21.4% year-on-year increase, according to the Statistics Agency under the President of Tajikistan. However, the minimum wage remained unchanged at 800 somoni ($88). Adjusted for inflation and purchasing power, real wages grew by 17.2% compared to June 2024. Economists stress the importance of distinguishing between nominal and real wages: while nominal wages reflect contractual earnings, real wages indicate actual purchasing capacity. Agricultural workers remained the lowest-paid group, with an average income of 1,082.31 somoni ($119). In contrast, employees in financial intermediation and insurance earned the highest wages, averaging 7,703.32 somoni ($847) per month. Regional Comparisons Despite the wage increases, Tajikistan lags behind its neighbors. In Kyrgyzstan, the average salary between January and June 2025 was 42,020 soms ($481), a 19.6% increase over the previous year. In Uzbekistan, the average wage reached 5.98 million soums ($484) by mid-year, up 17.2% from the same period in 2024. Kazakhstan reported an average monthly salary of 423,133 tenge ($790) in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 10.7% increase. Meanwhile, in Russia, average wages stood at 99,422 rubles ($1,231) as of May 2025. Tajikistan’s average salary is nearly four times lower than Russia’s and less than half of Kazakhstan’s, highlighting its continued economic disparity within the region.

Economy

Kazakhstan to Raise Minimum Wage in 2026

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Labor and Social Protection, Svetlana Zhakupova, has announced that the government plans to raise the minimum wage starting January 1, 2026. While the exact amount was not disclosed, Finance Minister Madi Takiev suggested the minimum wage could increase to just over 90,000 KZT ($189) per month. Speaking on the sidelines of a joint meeting of both chambers of the Kazakh parliament, Zhakupova noted that last year her ministry approved a new methodology for calculating the minimum wage. The formula is based on labor productivity, median wages, and inflation. As all these indicators, especially inflation, have risen this year, an adjustment is being prepared. “Today, several institutions are conducting research to determine accurate indicators of labor productivity and median wages by region and by industry, all of which will inform the new minimum wage,” Zhakupova said. “By the end of the year, we expect to finalize the amount so that the increase can take effect from January 1.” Finance Minister Takiev echoed this projection, estimating the new figure at approximately 90,000 KZT. Currently, the minimum wage in Kazakhstan stands at 85,000 KZT ($164). If the forecast is accurate, the planned increase would be the smallest in seven years. For context, the minimum wage rose from 28,200 KZT to 42,500 KZT ($54 to $81) in 2019, to 60,000 KZT ($116) in 2022, and to 70,000 KZT ($135) in 2023. The current level was established in January 2024. Inflation for the first five months of this year reached 11.3%, according to official data. Earlier, parliamentary deputy Askhat Rakhimzhanov called for revising key social indicators, including the minimum subsistence level, minimum wage, and consumer basket. He argued the subsistence minimum, currently 46,000 KZT ($89), should be raised to at least 115,700 KZT ($223). Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin, who also heads the Ministry of National Economy, agreed that the minimum wage should rise but cautioned against abrupt increases. “Raising the minimum wage is complex. It must be balanced with efforts to contain inflation, as it leads to higher production costs and stimulates demand, which can further drive inflation,” Zhumangarin said. He acknowledged the sharp rise in prices and admitted he could not live on 85,000 KZT. According to the National Statistics Bureau, the average monthly nominal wage in Kazakhstan during Q1 2025 was 423,100 KZT ($816), while the median wage stood at 300,300 KZT ($579). Only 6.1% of the working population, or around 170,000 workers, earn less than 100,000 KZT monthly, according to the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC). The majority, 53%, earn between 150,000 and 350,000 KZT ($290 to $675). As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, medical personnel remain among the lowest-paid occupational groups in the country.