Trump's Tariffs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Iran

From Tehran to Tashkent: How Iran’s Crisis and U.S. Tariffs Reverberate Across Central Asia

At the end of 2025, Iran once again emerged as a flashpoint on the global political map. Mass protests erupted across the country, fueled by spiraling inflation and economic hardship. At present, the Iranian rial has plummeted to the point where it is effectively worth less than the paper it's printed on. The current wave of unrest, already the largest and deadliest nationwide unrest Iran has seen since 2022, is not occurring in isolation. U.S. President Donald Trump has renewed what his administration describes as a policy of “maximum pressure” on Tehran, and his administration is now pursuing what observers have characterized as a strategy of “pushing the falling,” a move aimed at reshaping the political order of the Middle East. What might this mean for neighboring Central Asia? Tajik political analyst Muhammad Shamsuddinov argues the crisis must be viewed within a broader geopolitical context. “The situation in Iran is directly tied to Trump’s second-term pressure campaign,” Shamsuddinov said, referencing a string of destabilizing events. “These include the 12-day U.S.-Israel war against Iran and the reimposition of U.N. sanctions in September 2025," he added, referring to the 12-day June 2025 conflict between Israel and Iran, during which U.S. forces also struck Iranian nuclear facilities. "All of these have deepened the domestic crisis in Iran.” In a further escalation, on January 12, Trump announced 25% tariffs on countries conducting trade with Iran. The move appears targeted primarily at Russia, China, and India - Iran’s largest international partners, but also has implications for Central Asian economies. In the first nine months of 2025, trade between Kazakhstan and Iran grew by nearly 45%, reaching $310.8 million. Tajikistan, which maintains the closest economic ties to Tehran among Central Asian states, reported trade worth $430.7 million in the first eleven months of 2025, an increase of 28% over the same period in 2024. Uzbekistan, while less directly exposed to Iran than Kazakhstan or Tajikistan, has also moved cautiously in recent years to expand trade links with Tehran, making it sensitive to further sanctions pressure. Turkmenistan, meanwhile, faces its own exposure through gas swap arrangements involving Iran, which could become collateral damage of escalating regional tensions. Iranian investments in Tajikistan are also substantial. Among the most prominent projects is the Sangtuda-2 hydroelectric power plant, estimated at $256 million. The Iranian government contributed approximately $180 million, with an additional $36 million from an Iranian contractor. The remainder was financed by Tajikistan. According to official data, roughly 160 companies with Iranian capital are currently operating in Tajikistan across multiple sectors. In Kazakhstan, around 650 Iranian companies are registered, with over 350 operational, primarily in manufacturing, infrastructure, and agriculture. By contrast, trade between Iran and Russia, a strategic partner since the signing of a bilateral cooperation agreement in January 2025, increased by only 8% in the first nine months of 2025, according to official figures. Despite modest growth, Russian analysts view the figures optimistically. “Growth is happening under challenging geopolitical conditions, with sanctions, logistical restructuring, and financial hurdles,” said...

Trump Administration

Trump Reengages Central Asia Amid Tariffs and Rising Competition

In a bid that signals renewed U.S. interest in Central Asia, U.S. President Donald Trump on September 7, 2025, held what he described as a “great conversation” with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Earlier in the week, Trump also spoke over the phone with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, with both sides highlighting plans to expand their strategic partnership. Commentators have noted that Trump’s rhetoric and transactional approach to foreign policy in his second term create both challenges and opportunities for sustained U.S. engagement in the region. “Great Conversation” With Tokayev As he departed the White House for the U.S. Open men’s final, President Trump told reporters, “We had a great conversation,” though he offered no further details on the substance of the discussion. On Kazakhstan’s side, President Tokayev had reached out in July, expressing his openness to constructive trade talks following Trump’s imposition of 25% U.S. tariffs on Kazakh goods. In that July letter, Tokayev committed to “developing fair, predictable, and mutually beneficial trade relations.” He also emphasized his readiness for “constructive dialogue aimed at finding a rational solution.” The exchange reflects the broader importance of the U.S.–Kazakhstan relationship, which extends far beyond tariffs. Since 2017, the two nations have maintained an “enhanced strategic partnership,” covering trade, security, and energy cooperation. Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer and a leading supplier to U.S. nuclear power plants, while American firms such as Chevron and ExxonMobil are deeply invested in the country’s vast oil fields. Strategically located between Russia, China, and Europe, Kazakhstan offers Washington a critical partner in promoting regional stability and developing alternative trade corridors traditionally reliant on Russian land. By engaging closely with Astana, the U.S. strengthens its foothold in Central Asia while securing vital resources and supporting Kazakhstan’s multi-vector diplomacy. Strategic Outreach to Uzbekistan Earlier the same week, Trump and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev agreed to broaden their strategic partnership across economic, security, and cultural domains, the Uzbekistan press office reported. According to the office, Trump praised Uzbekistan’s “irreversible reforms” aimed at modernizing its economy and improving living standards, while Mirziyoyev lauded what he termed the “impressive results of the domestic and foreign policy” of the U.S. administration. This extension of engagement to Tashkent comes against a backdrop of longstanding U.S. involvement in Uzbekistan, including trade under bilateral agreements since the mid-1990s and cooperation on border control and counter-terrorism programs. In late 2024, shortly before Trump’s second term began, Washington reaffirmed its support for Uzbekistan’s bid to join the World Trade Organization, with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai announcing the completion of bilateral market-access negotiations. That same year, U.S. officials also underscored opportunities in critical minerals cooperation with Tashkent through the C5+1 diplomatic framework. Beyond trade and security, Uzbekistan is strategically important as Central Asia’s most populous nation and a key transit hub between China, Russia, and South Asia. Closer U.S.–Uzbek ties complement Washington’s regional engagement with Kazakhstan, creating overlapping partnerships that strengthen American influence, promote economic diversification, and reinforce stability across Central Asia. Why Now? Geopolitics, Tariffs, and Regional...

Peace Talks

Trump–Putin Talks in Alaska: What Could They Mean for Central Asia?

As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, located just outside of Anchorage, Alaska, hopes and anxieties are reverberating across Central Asia. Trump has signaled that securing a ceasefire in Ukraine is his top priority, warning of “very severe consequences” for Moscow if Putin refuses to halt the war. For the five former Soviet republics of Central Asia, these peace talks carry high stakes. Any truce or breakdown could ripple into their economies and strategic calculus. The war has already fundamentally changed Central Asia’s strategic positioning, accelerating diversification away from Russian dependence. With Trump and Putin poised to negotiate, Central Asian leaders are mindful that all possible outcomes - a ceasefire, a prolonged conflict, or a major power realignment - could each reshape the region’s economic fortunes and foreign policy choices. Central Asian Stances on the Ukraine War All five Central Asian governments have officially maintained neutrality on the Ukraine conflict. On the first UN General Assembly resolution of March 2, 2022, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan abstained, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan did not vote. On subsequent resolutions, Uzbekistan abstained alongside Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; Turkmenistan continued not to vote. None has recognized Russia’s claims to Ukrainian territory. Seated beside Putin at a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2022, referring to them as “quasi-state territories,” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan refused to recognize the independence of the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. “Modern international law is the United Nations Charter,” Tokayev stated. Despite maintaining ties with Russia, Kazakhstan has boosted its engagement with China, Turkey, and Europe during the conflict. Whilst publicly affirming that it will comply with Western sanctions on Russia, Kazakhstan has stated that it will continue to prioritize its economic interests, vowing not to “blindly follow” such measures when they harm its domestic industries. “Kazakhstan will continue to comply with the sanctions but will pursue a balanced policy to minimize the impact on its own economy,” Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin said in August 2024. Uzbekistan has adopted a similar “balanced and neutral” approach to the war in Ukraine. In March 2022, then-Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov stated that Uzbekistan “recognizes the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and does not recognize the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics.” Despite Kamilov leaving his position shortly after making this statement, the nation’s position appears largely unchanged. Calling for an immediate end to “hostilities and violence,” Tashkent has expanded links with Turkey, China, and the EU. According to a U.S. State Department report from 2024, “Uzbekistan formally committed to adhering to U.S. and EU sanctions and trade restrictions on Russia.” Kyrgyzstan has continued to maintain a close economic relationship with Moscow while abstaining from all key United Nations resolutions concerning the Ukraine war. President Sadyr Japarov has said the country “adheres to a neutral position” and that exports to Russia are civilian in nature. In January 2025, Kyrgyzstan’s Keremet Bank was designated by the U.S....

Trump's Tariffs

Kazakhstan Takes the Initiative: Delegation Planning to Head to U.S. to Tackle Trump Tariffs

Deputy Minister of Trade and Integration Zhanel Kushukova has announced Kazakhstan's decision to send a high-level delegation to the United States for consultations on import duties, marking a proactive step to address trade challenges and strengthen economic ties. This move comes amid heightened tensions in global trade after sweeping tariffs were unveiled by U.S. President Donald Trump, including a significant 27% duty on Kazakh goods. The delegation aims to foster dialogue on reducing trade barriers, advocate for the equitable treatment of exports, and explore exceptions for certain goods. No date has been set for the visit yet. The decision demonstrates Kazakhstan's commitment to bolstering its position as a key player in international trade. The targeted discussion will focus on sensitive issues, including tariffs impacting industries such as crude oil, uranium, silver, and ferroalloys, which, as noted by the Ministry of Trade and Integration, “constitute 92% of total exports.” As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, while these goods might qualify for exemptions under U.S. regulations, the higher tariff symbolizes a broader challenge for Kazakhstan in its response to navigating the evolving trade landscape. Context of Trump's Tariff Policy The 27% tariff imposed on Kazakhstan stands out as by far the highest targeting Central Asia, where neighboring Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan will face a 10% baseline duty. Billed as addressing trade imbalances and protecting U.S. industries – though the methodology behind the administration’s calculations has baffled many analysts - Trump's tariff regime has introduced a layered system targeting a raft of nations. While China has been hit hardest, with seemingly ever-increasing duties now standing at a dizzying 145%, even smaller economies such as impoverished Cambodia (49%) and Laos (48%) have been caught in the crossfire, raising concerns about disproportionate impacts on developing nations. While Trump stepped back from the brink on April 9, announcing a 90 day pause for the majority of countries before doubling down on China, companies such as Apple - the world’s most valuable publicly listed company – had already experienced a fall in market capitalization of more than $300 billion on the day after the policy was announced, its’ worst single-day drop since 2020. Amidst a slump in markets globally, meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, has warned that Trump’s tariffs will hit the U.S. economy and lead to rising prices. Economists have noted the potential ripple effects of tariffs on global markets, with fears of supply chain disruptions and stagflation growing. For Kazakhstan, a resource-rich economy striving to diversify beyond its traditional oil and mining industries, the heightened duties could dampen its exports while complicating efforts to attract foreign investment. However, analysts such as Rasul Rysmambetov have argued that Kazakhstan’s relatively small share in global trade may shield it from significant fallout, with the tariff largely “symbolic” in nature. Opportunities Amid Challenges Despite these challenges, Kazakhstan is attempting to leverage the situation to advance its diplomatic and economic strategies, with the country’s Ministry of Trade and Integration working to secure specific exemptions...

Trump Tariffs

Trump’s Trade War Against China: Opportunities and Risks for Central Asia

Experts believe that Central Asian countries stand to gain from U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed trade war with China, but the region also faces substantial risks. Kazakhstan Bears the Brunt On April 3, Trump signed an executive order imposing “reciprocal” customs duties on goods from dozens of countries. Kazakhstan faced the steepest tariff in Central Asia at 27%, while Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan each received a flat 10% rate. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade explained that 92% of the country’s exports to the U.S., including crude oil, uranium, silver, and ferroalloys, were among the exempt categories listed in the order. As a result, only 4.8% of total exports to the U.S. would be affected. The government has announced its intent to hold consultations with Washington to avoid further tariffs. More broadly, global economic uncertainty tied to the trade war may cause further weakening of national currencies across Central Asia. Declining demand for oil could depress prices, posing a particular threat to Kazakhstan, where oil is a primary export. On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day freeze on additional tariffs, applying a temporary 10% duty for more than 75 countries, excluding China. Open Confrontation with Beijing In a sharp escalation, the U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. Beijing retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, effectively halting trade. As the Chinese government noted, duties at this level “no longer make economic sense.” On April 13, Trump, responding to pressure from the U.S. business community, reversed duties on processors, computers, smartphones, and electronics. According to Morgan Stanley, 87% of iPhones are made in China, and production of the upcoming iPhone 17 will also be based there. Additionally, four out of five iPads and 60% of Macs are manufactured in China. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged European nations to resist what he described as Trump's erratic trade policies. Central Asia: Strategic Position, Mixed Prospects With Chinese goods effectively shut out of the U.S. market, Beijing is likely to turn to alternative trade routes. While Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and Malaysia benefitted during the 2018-2019 trade war, this time Trump has also targeted some of them with tariffs, fearing rerouted exports. China’s growing pivot toward Eurasia places the Central Asian countries at a critical transit junction. Their strategic position on land routes to Europe offers untapped potential for trade reorientation. Kyrgyzstan, in particular, has served as a conduit for Chinese goods, with Chinese-manufactured items re-labeled as Kyrgyz products before entering markets across the CIS. This practice, noted as early as 2015, primarily catered to Russia but also extended to Kazakhstan. More recent findings indicate that illegal Chinese imports into Central Asia may total billions of dollars. The existing smuggling infrastructure could be formalized and scaled, facilitating increased regional trade. Long-term benefits could include heightened cargo traffic through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, sparking Chinese investment in logistics infrastructure and creating jobs in transport. Risks of Overreliance The trade conflict may also incentivize some Chinese manufacturers to relocate assembly operations...

Trump's Tariffs

Unpacking the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs on Central Asia

Trade analysts across Central Asia generally agree that the immediate impact of the United States' tariff policy on the export dynamics of their nations will likely be minimal, as observed in past experiences, except for Kazakhstan. However, there is a palpable concern regarding potential unforeseen consequences arising from a broader global trade conflict. Notably, the timing of the Trump administration's announcement regarding global tariffs on imports coincides with a period when Central Asian countries are actively working to enhance their regional trade relationships. This new tariff policy raises significant doubts about the authenticity of recent U.S. efforts to promote increased trade and investment in the region. The mixed signals coming from Washington may lead Central Asian leaders to re-evaluate their current trade partnerships, especially as they consider the benefits of strengthening ties with China and Russia against the attractiveness of expanding commerce with the United States. Similarly, the European Union may find an opportunity to improve its position, while India could leverage the Chabahar route (a multi-modal transportation route connecting India, Iran, Afghanistan, and potentially Central Asia and Europe). It is worth noting that the market is primarily situated in Asia, and this alternative could have adverse long-term effects on the United States. Kazakhstan, acknowledged as the United States’ largest trading partner in Central Asia, is poised to face significant repercussions from introducing new tariffs set at 27%. In 2024, trade relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan reached an impressive total of $3.4 billion, with $1.1 billion in U.S. exports to Kazakhstan and $2.3 billion in imports from Kazakhstan to the U.S. However, a statement from the Kazakh Trade Ministry indicates that exports to the U.S. primarily consist of crude oil, uranium, silver, and other raw materials, all exempt from these tariffs. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported only $95.2 million worth of goods, which will now incur surcharges – a relatively modest figure compared to the country’s overall foreign trade turnover of $141.4 billion. Trade analysts suggest that Kazakhstan has little cause for concern, viewing this situation more as a psychological impact than a serious economic threat. Resource-driven Central Asian economies, such as Kazakhstan, may even find enhanced opportunities in the expanding Asian market. Trade dynamics in Central Asia reveal a complex landscape, especially concerning the United States. In 2024, Uzbekistan managed to export a modest $42.4 million worth of goods to the US, a small fraction considering its total foreign trade turnover, which reached an impressive $66 billion for that year. This stark contrast highlights the limited engagement of Uzbekistan in the American market. With its total trade turnover of $16 billion in 2024, Kyrgyzstan similarly struggled with exports to the US, which amounted to merely $16.7 million. This reflects a broader trend where Central Asian economies exhibit low volume exports to the US, suggesting significant barriers or challenges in establishing a foothold in this lucrative market. Tajikistan's economic performance presented an even more sobering picture. Recording a total trade turnover of $8.9 billion, the country achieved only $4.6 million...