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Uzbekistan Plans to Strengthen Strategic Partnership with the U.S.

Uzbekistan is actively working to deepen its strategic partnership with the United States. The draft state program for 2025, currently under public discussion, outlines several measures to strengthen these ties. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, led by Acting Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov, is tasked with expanding bilateral cooperation by the end of 2025. Key initiatives include a high-level visit to the U.S. and the inaugural round of the Enhanced Strategic Partnership Dialogue in Tashkent. The program also aims to bolster collaboration within the “C5+1” format, which features a ministerial meeting, working group discussions, and a summit in Samarkand to mark the format’s 10th anniversary. The program also emphasizes increasing inter-parliamentary cooperation, attracting investors from the Americas, and promoting trade and investment through business forums, exhibitions, and events. Additionally, it prioritizes enhanced security collaboration and sustaining Uzbekistan's strong rankings in U.S. human rights reports. Daniel Runde, Senior Vice President of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, recently urged U.S. policymakers to prioritize relations with Uzbekistan. He described the country as a pivotal partner in maintaining regional stability and countering the influence of Russia and China. Despite geopolitical challenges, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and escalating competition with China, Runde highlighted the strategic importance of strengthening ties with Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan's relationship with the U.S. is longstanding. In 2018, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with then-President Donald Trump at the White House. Trump lauded Uzbekistan’s rising global stature during the visit, calling it "an honor" to host Mirziyoyev.

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Russian or Kazakh? Questions, Security Concerns About Man Detained at U.S. Border

A man who said he is a citizen of Kazakhstan pleaded guilty this week to illegally entering the United States at the southern border with Mexico. But U.S. prosecutors said he was also carrying a Russian passport and that he admitted to being a member of the Wagner Group, a Russia-backed mercenary organization that is a target of U.S. sanctions, according to a media report in Texas. A criminal complaint filed on Jan. 5 against the man, Timur Praliev, says U.S. Border Patrol agents encountered him on the previous day. “When questioned as to his citizenship, defendant stated that he was a citizen and national of Kazakhstan, who had entered the United States illegally on January 4, 2025 by crossing the Rio Grande River near Roma, Texas,” read the complaint, which was filed in federal court in McAllen, Texas. However, the ValleyCentral.com news site, which covers the Rio Grande Valley in south Texas, reported that Praliev was carrying both Russian and Kazakh passports, a total of about $7,000 in U.S. dollars and Mexican pesos and also had a drone in his backpack. The news site attributed information about Praliev to Assistant U.S. Attorney Amanda McColgan. The federal prosecutor requested that Praliev be sentenced to 15 days in prison because of concern about his association with Wagner, which has fought in Western-backed Ukraine and also projected Russian power in Syria and several African countries, with sometimes brutal methods. On Jan. 7, Praliev pleaded guilty to illegal entry into the United States and U.S. Magistrate Judge J. Scott Hacker sentenced him to time served, meaning that he had completed his prison sentence while waiting in detention for the hearing. Dave Hendricks, the journalist who reported on the case for ValleyCentral.com, said on X that “he'll almost certainly remain in federal custody until he's deported.”

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Deportations of Central Asians from the U.S. Increased in 2024

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has released its Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report, detailing the agency’s accomplishments over the past year. The report highlights how ICE’s directorates and program offices met their mission objectives. Established in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, ICE is tasked with protecting the American public, ensuring public safety, and promoting national security. According to the report, ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) deported 271,484 non-citizens with final orders of removal to 192 countries. This total includes 88,763 individuals charged with or convicted of criminal offenses, 3,706 known or suspected gang members, 237 known or suspected terrorists, and eight human rights violators. More than 30% of those deported had criminal histories, with an average of 5.63 convictions or charges per individual. ERO also assisted in identifying and arresting individuals wanted in their home countries for serious crimes, including terrorism and torture. The Times of Central Asia examined the report with a focus on Central Asian countries. In 2024, the US deported 572 Uzbek nationals - a dramatic increase compared to 88 in 2013, 21 in 2021, and 55 in 2022. Deportations of Tajik citizens also surged, reaching 77 in 2024 compared to only four annually in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023. Kazakhstan saw the deportation of 23 of its citizens this year, up from 14 in 2023. Deportations to Kyrgyzstan also spiked, with 69 individuals removed in 2024. By comparison, only three Kyrgyz citizens were deported in 2020, eight in 2021, one in 2022, and 14 in 2023. Meanwhile, deportations of Turkmen nationals remained low, but still showed an upward trend. In 2024, five Turkmen citizens were deported, compared to four in 2019, one in 2022, and three in 2023.

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Opinion: What Will a New Trump Presidency Mean for Central Asia?

During his presidency, Donald Trump introduced a foreign policy approach that recalibrated U.S. engagement with Central Asia, a region strategically critical yet overshadowed by the influence of China and Russia. Trump’s policies, targeting the collective challenge of CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea), aimed to foster regional autonomy and counter external dependency. This policy shift, aimed at countering the global influence of CRINK has extended to the vital region of Central Asia. Further, it is geographically wedged between Russia and China and serves as a critical bridge for U.S. interests. The CRINK nations, in their regional strategies, have made substantial inroads in Central Asia. Additionally, each nation is pursuing influence through economic, political, or military avenues. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union, for instance, have been noted as major forces reshaping Central Asian economies as well as infrastructure. In 2013, the BRI of China was launched, which has channeled billions into roads, railways, and other infrastructure projects in Central Asia, seeking to create new trade routes connecting Asia to Europe. On the other side, Russia has promoted its Eurasian Economic Union as a trading bloc that has aimed at fostering economic integration among Central Asia and neighboring countries. These initiatives have provided economic incentives for Central Asia but also intensified its reliance on external powers, particularly China and Russia. During his presidency, Trump emphasized a CRINK-focused strategy, which prioritized Central Asia's sovereignty and reduced dependency on China and Russia. This strategy laid the groundwork for U.S. engagement in the region, influencing current policy directions. In 2020, Trump’s administration unveiled a comprehensive strategy for Central Asia, marking the first such effort in over two decades. The policy emphasized U.S. support for border security and defense collaboration, including financial aid to Tajikistan and military training for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. These measures, though initiated under Trump, continue to shape current U.S. approaches to combating terrorism and fostering regional stability. For example, the U.S. has established the C5+1 initiative as a dialogue platform between the United States and the five Central Asian nations (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan). It was developed further to promote mutual goals in regional security, economic development, and environmental resilience. Security cooperation is a vital aspect of this U.S. strategy which has given the threats of terrorism and also potential instability at CRINK’s peripheries (Sciutto, 2024). In particular, Afghanistan’s proximity to Central Asia poses both risks as well as opportunities for these nations. The U.S. has provided financial support to Tajikistan to strengthen border security and counter drug trafficking. Furthermore, while also assisting Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with training and equipment to improve their defense capabilities the US has financially supported the nation. This military cooperation has aimed to prevent the encroachment of extremist groups like ISIS, which could exploit regional instability and threaten U.S. interests. Trump’s presidency emphasized private sector investments as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Although modest compared to China’s commitments, these investments reflected an effort to position...

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Harnessing Diplomacy: Qosh Tepa Canal as a Bridge to U.S. Influence in Central Asia

The Center for the National Interest, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, has released a report titled Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal and Water Security in Central Asia. The report outlines how U.S. support for the Qosh Tepa Canal project could provide an opportunity for the incoming Trump administration to strengthen its influence in the region. Project Overview Currently under construction in northern Afghanistan, the Qosh Tepa Canal aims to divert water from the Amu Darya River to support agriculture and economic growth. The canal will stretch 287 kilometers, with a depth of 8.5 meters and an average width of 100 meters. Once completed, it will irrigate more than 1.2 million acres of farmland and generate approximately 200,000 jobs in northern Afghanistan. While the Taliban has championed the project as a cornerstone of Afghanistan’s development, the canal poses significant challenges for downstream countries reliant on the Amu Darya, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Concerns include potential water scarcity, environmental degradation, and heightened regional tensions. Implications for Central Asia The report highlights that the canal could exacerbate existing disputes over water allocation in a region already plagued by scarcity. Unlike its Central Asian neighbors, Afghanistan is excluded from water-sharing agreements rooted in the Soviet era. The poorly designed Soviet canals along the Amu Darya continue to undermine water security in the region decades after their construction, a fate experts hope to avoid with Qosh Tepa. Recommendations for U.S. Engagement The report urges the United States to seize this opportunity to engage Afghanistan and the broader region diplomatically and technically: 1. Support for a Well-Engineered Canal The United States should advocate for a well designed canal that prioritizes water-use efficiency. By offering technical assistance and backing the project in principle, the U.S. could pave the way for multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Asian Development Bank, to provide financial and technical support. 2. Promote Regional Water Diplomacy Washington should encourage negotiations for a regional water-sharing agreement among Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 3. Assist Downstream States Additional investments in modernizing irrigation systems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan could mitigate the canal's impact on downstream water availability. Strategic Context The report underscores the geostrategic importance of Afghanistan and Central Asia, which border three of Washington’s primary global competitors: China, Russia, and Iran. By supporting the Qosh Tepa Canal project and fostering regional water-sharing cooperation, the U.S. could counterbalance the growing influence of Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran in the region. A Watershed Moment As construction progresses into its second phase, involving thousands of workers and heavy machinery, the Qosh Tepa Canal stands at the nexus of development and diplomacy. The report concludes that U.S. involvement in this critical project could serve not only to address Central Asia’s pressing water security challenges but also to reinforce Washington’s strategic position in one of the world’s most complex geopolitical arenas.

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Kazakhstan’s Middle Power Strategy Captures U.S. Focus in Trump-Tokayev Talks

On December 5, a telephone conversation took place between Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. According to Akorda, the official residence of the Kazakh president, Tokayev congratulated Trump on his election and both leaders expressed a commitment to strengthening their strategic partnership in trade, investment, and nuclear non-proliferation. They also agreed to maintain regular contact to sustain the momentum of bilateral cooperation. Kazakhstan as a Mediator This brief but significant interaction has fueled speculation that Trump may view Kazakhstan as a potential mediator in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. International expert Arkady Dubnov has suggested that Astana could become a platform for dialogue involving Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky, or other high level representatives. This aligns with Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts to promote mediation and its firm belief that the ongoing conflict can only be resolved at the negotiating table. Tokayev and the Role of Middle Powers Under Tokayev’s leadership, Kazakhstan has consolidated its status as a “Middle Power.” The term gained prominence in May during Tokayev’s Singapore Lecture, part of a prestigious series organized by the Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS). In his speech, “Kazakhstan and the Role of Middle Powers: Promoting Security, Stability, and Sustainable Development,” Tokayev emphasized the risks of global polarization and the need for middle powers to act against a new Cold War. Tokayev revisited this concept in an article for the French newspaper Figaro, highlighting the growing influence of middle powers amidst the deadlock faced by global superpowers, such as the United States and China. Tokayev wrote, “The economic and political importance of these countries is growing, and their balanced and constructive position is becoming an advantage in the face of global uncertainty.” At the Astana Think Tank Forum in October, Tokayev reiterated this idea, calling for the reform of the UN Security Council to amplify the voices of regional and middle powers. “The Security Council is in a deadlock, and we need to find a way out,” Tokayev stated. Trump's Strategy Trump’s outreach to Tokayev appears to validate these concepts. Following his election, Trump has engaged with the leaders of regional and middle powers, including India, Israel, Canada, and South Korea, signaling a possible strategy to build a coalition of such nations for his proposed reforms to the global security architecture. Kazakhstan's balanced and constructive foreign policy, combined with its emphasis on multilateralism, positions it as an effective interlocutor in global conflicts. Tokayev’s vision of middle powers as mediators may prove instrumental in shaping a more inclusive and cooperative international order.