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Water Security

Opinion: Chinese Firms Expand Their Role in Kyrgyzstan’s Water Infrastructure

Kyrgyzstan plays a central role in Central Asia’s water system and is of growing interest to China. According to figures cited by President Sadyr Japarov in April 2026, approximately 50 billion cubic meters of surface runoff are generated annually within the country. About 12 billion cubic meters are used domestically, while around 7 billion, or 14% of the total, flow to China. Kyrgyzstan has five main water-management basins. The Issyk-Kul–Tarim management area includes both the closed Issyk-Kul basin and rivers flowing toward China, making its transboundary component a distinct area of bilateral cooperation. The Aksu River, which originates in Kyrgyzstan and feeds the Tarim River in China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, is particularly important. Estimates put its contribution at 70–80% of the Tarim’s flow. Given Xinjiang’s importance to China’s domestic stability and the Belt and Road Initiative, these shared waters have economic and long-term geopolitical significance for Beijing. Legal and Regional Context Kyrgyzstan and China established a strategic partnership in 2013, but no publicly available bilateral agreement specifically governs the allocation and management of their shared waters. Neither country is a party to the 1992 UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes or the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses. The significant asymmetry in the countries’ economic and negotiating capacities makes the absence of a dedicated water-sharing framework a potential source of vulnerability for Kyrgyzstan. Its importance could grow as water stress intensifies and economic activity in the shared basins expands. For Central Asia, China’s involvement has broader implications. Kyrgyzstan is an upstream country whose rivers supply its downstream neighbors. Chinese participation in water infrastructure adds another external actor to a sector that has historically been one of the most sensitive areas in regional relations. The Changing Nature of China’s Presence China’s involvement in Kyrgyzstan’s water sector includes bilateral assistance for irrigation as well as construction contracts financed by multilateral institutions. These channels coexist, making it important to distinguish Chinese funding from work undertaken by Chinese companies. Kyrgyzstan’s chronic electricity shortage and need to modernize its water and energy infrastructure have created opportunities for greater Chinese involvement. The upgrading of bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era in 2023 provided an additional political framework, with hydropower identified as a priority for practical cooperation. Agreements totaling more than $1 billion were signed at the Kyrgyz-Chinese business forum in Urumqi in August 2023, underscoring the broader expansion of economic ties. Chinese companies are also winning contracts funded by international financial institutions. In September 2025, a Sinohydro Bureau 16–Sinohydro joint venture signed a contract for water-conveyance structures and the powerhouse for the second generating unit at Kambarata-2, financed by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development. The tender had been launched in 2024. The Asian Development Bank lists a $12.8 million contract dated July 2025 for an Issyk-Kul wastewater treatment plant, awarded to a joint venture involving China Road and Bridge Corporation. That contract includes three years...

Fuel Supplies

Kyrgyzstan Looks to China to Diversify Fuel Supplies

Kyrgyzstan is looking to turn China into a more regular source of gasoline and diesel as it seeks to diversify its fuel supplies. Bishkek is discussing the construction of oil storage facilities near the Chinese border and a petroleum products pipeline with Chinese energy giants CNPC and Sinopec. Russia supplies around 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s fuel, according to President Sadyr Japarov. A new route could reduce dependence on a single supplier. The talks took place in Beijing on September 23. Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Erlist Akunbekov met with executives from CNPC and Sinopec. Kyrgyz companies are signing petroleum product supply agreements with the two groups, according to the Cabinet of Ministers. The talks come amid disruptions to Russian fuel supplies this year. Bishkek has proposed building oil storage facilities near Torugart and Irkeshtam, the two main road crossings between the countries. The storage facilities are intended to reduce logistics costs. A separate pipeline for petroleum products is also under discussion, providing another potential route for bringing fuel across the border. The talks also cover domestic production in Kyrgyzstan. The two sides are considering the construction of a new oil refinery, as well as joint exploration and development of oil fields. Chinese capital is already present in the sector. The Junda refinery in Kara-Balta, about 60 kilometers west of Bishkek, is controlled by a Chinese investor. The plant has an annual crude-processing capacity of up to 800,000 tons and is undergoing a nearly $194 million modernization program. The upgrade is expected to increase output and enable the refinery to produce Euro 5-standard fuel, which is subject to stricter limits on sulfur and other harmful pollutants. On the same day, Kyrgyz Cabinet Chairman Adylbek Kasymaliev met Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Hangzhou. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry and China’s National Energy Administration signed an agreement on cooperation in the electric power sector. The government statement did not specify which projects would be covered by the agreement. The proposed pipeline and border storage facilities remain under discussion, separate from the fuel supply agreements being concluded by Kyrgyz companies.

Artificial intelligence

Kazakhstan Prepares for China Investment Forum While Pursuing U.S. AI Ties

Kazakhstan will host a major investment forum with China in Almaty on September 25, with artificial intelligence expected to feature prominently among potential new agreements. The meeting comes as Astana deepens technology cooperation with Beijing while remaining part of the U.S.-backed Pax Silica initiative. Tokayev confirmed his participation in the forum in an interview with China’s Xinhua News Agency. “This forum is intended to serve as a platform for launching new concrete economic and investment cooperation projects,” the president said. In the same interview, Tokayev outlined potential cooperation with China in AI and digital technologies, ranging from industry, mining, and energy to transport, healthcare, satellite technology, and data centers. Some projects in these areas are already being discussed with Chinese businesses. During Tokayev’s July visit to Shanghai, Kazakhstan and Chinese companies signed more than 70 commercial agreements with a stated value exceeding $15 billion. They included projects involving Huawei, robotics development, AI in the automotive industry, and the Data Center Valley in Ekibastuz, where a complex with capacity of up to 1 GW is planned. Two International Initiatives in Three Weeks On June 25, Kazakhstan became the first country in Central Asia to join Pax Silica, a U.S.-backed initiative aimed at developing trusted supply chains for the AI economy. It covers areas including semiconductors, critical minerals, computing infrastructure, energy, and advanced manufacturing. Kazakhstan also signed a joint statement with the United States on an AI Opportunity Partnership. On July 16, Kazakhstan joined 28 other countries in Shanghai in signing an agreement to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO). The organization, headquartered in Shanghai, says its goals include expanding international cooperation and developing approaches to global AI governance. Its other founding participants include Brazil, China, Indonesia, Russia, and the four other Central Asian states: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Beijing is promoting wider access to AI technologies and open models, workforce development, and greater participation by developing countries in setting international rules. China is also seeking to reduce its technology sector’s dependence on U.S. components. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has remained part of Pax Silica. Washington Raises the Question of Choosing Sides On August 14, Reuters reported that the U.S. State Department had drafted a letter for countries partnering with Washington on AI. Countries participating in both Pax Silica and the China-backed initiative could be asked to choose between the two frameworks. A U.S. official told Reuters that Washington wanted a clearer separation between the American and Chinese technology ecosystems. The report specifically identified Kazakhstan as a participant in both initiatives and said its dual participation had raised concerns in Washington. At the time, the document remained a draft. There is no public evidence that Kazakhstan has received such a demand or that Washington has formally required Astana to choose between the two initiatives. Several weeks later, Tokayev argued in his Xinhua interview against dividing technology along geopolitical lines. “AI should not become the privilege of a narrow circle of the most technologically advanced states, much less turn into a new...

Uranium

Kazakh Uranium for Asia: Japan Returns for Fuel, South Korea Expands Cooperation

Kazakhstan accounts for around 40% of global uranium production. China already receives not only raw material from the country but also finished fuel assemblies; Japan is signing new contracts after bringing some of its reactors back online; and South Korea is expanding cooperation with Kazakhstan’s nuclear industry. Kazakhstan itself, which for decades exported almost all of its uranium, is preparing to build its own nuclear power plants. These developments are gradually changing the country’s place in Asia’s nuclear energy sector. In December 2025, Kazatomprom, the world’s largest producer of natural uranium, agreed on new supplies with Kansai Electric Power, one of Japan’s major nuclear power operators. The agreement for the supply of uranium oxide concentrate, U₃O₈, was signed during events connected with a visit by a Kazakh delegation to Japan. This is not finished reactor fuel. U₃O₈, known in the industry as yellowcake, must undergo conversion, enrichment, and fuel fabrication after mining. For Kansai, the agreement provides another source of raw material for its nuclear fleet, while for Kazakhstan it continues cooperation with the Japanese company that began almost two decades ago. Japanese demand is rising again after a prolonged decline. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011 led to the gradual shutdown of all the country’s commercial reactors. Restarts began in 2015 after new safety requirements were introduced. In February 2025, the Japanese government approved an energy policy that envisages increasing nuclear power’s share of electricity generation to around 20% by 2040. To achieve this, Tokyo will need not only to restart existing reactors but also to secure their fuel supply. Kansai has a particularly important role in this process. The company operates seven reactors at three sites: Mihama, Takahama, and Ohi. In 2025, it also resumed work to assess the possibility of building a new reactor at the Mihama site. No final decision on construction has yet been made. Kansai’s links with Kazakhstan began long before the current revival of Japan’s nuclear energy sector. In 2006, the company and Sumitomo joined the APPAK uranium mining project in southern Kazakhstan. Kazatomprom currently owns 65% of the company, Sumitomo 25%, and Kansai 10%. APPAK develops the western section of the Mynkuduk deposit in the Turkistan region. For the Japanese company, this provides a presence directly at the source of the raw material. For Kazakhstan, the partnership became one of the first major examples of Asian energy companies participating in its uranium mining industry. China Already Receives Finished Fuel Kazakhstan has gone further with China than simply supplying uranium concentrate. Ulba-FA operates in Ust-Kamenogorsk as a joint venture between the Ulba Metallurgical Plant and China’s CGNPC-URC. The Kazakh side owns 51% and the Chinese side 49%. The plant produces fuel assemblies for Chinese nuclear power plants. Industrial production began in 2021. In December 2022, the first shipment was sent to China, containing just over 30 tonnes of low-enriched uranium in finished fuel assemblies. By the end of 2024, the plant had reached its design capacity of 200 tonnes a year....

Artificial intelligence

Tokayev Offers Astana to Host New Global AI Body’s First Meeting

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev put Astana forward at the opening of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai on July 17, saying that Kazakhstan is ready to host the first meeting of a new global AI organization. He also proposed placing the organization’s Central Asian office in Kazakhstan. Together, the offers set out Tokayev’s wider aim: Kazakhstan wants a role in writing AI rules as well as building the technology at home. Twenty-nine countries signed the agreement establishing the World AI Cooperation Organization on July 16. The founding states included Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan did not sign. China first proposed the Shanghai-based intergovernmental body at last year’s conference. Tokayev called the creation of the organization a historic decision and said it could underpin a universal framework for AI governance. “No country should remain merely a consumer of AI,” he said. “Every state must have the opportunity to develop its own human capital, digital infrastructure, and institutional capacity. Here too, the issue is fairness and integrity.” Tokayev also endorsed the conference’s guiding principle, “AI for good, AI for all,” arguing that technological progress should benefit people broadly rather than deepen inequalities within and between countries. His offer to host the new organization’s first meeting in Astana and to establish its Central Asian office in Kazakhstan were aimed at giving the country a role in shaping that agenda. [caption id="attachment_52389" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Image: Akorda[/caption] Astana Bids for a Role in the New AI Body Tokayev’s proposals went beyond hosting a ceremonial gathering. He called for a permanent expert platform on AI regulation, standards and ethics. He also proposed an international network of schools, centers of excellence and academic partnerships. The Kazakh president urged members to develop common standards for testing and certifying AI systems. He said safeguards should address malicious uses, including cyberthreats, deepfakes and digital fraud. AI should remain under human control, he said. Tokayev placed those proposals within his wider diplomatic agenda. He argued that AI could help spot crises earlier and improve humanitarian work and peacekeeping. He said governments spend too much effort dealing with conflicts after they begin and too little preventing them. The new organization adds another layer to Kazakhstan’s technology policy. Citing a person familiar with the U.S. position, Reuters reported that Kazakhstan is the only country listed in both the 29-member body and Washington’s AI Opportunity Statement. Kazakhstan had already joined the U.S.-backed Pax Silica framework on June 25, which covers chips, critical minerals, energy and secure AI supply chains. That overlap carries Kazakhstan’s long-standing multi-vector diplomacy into AI policy. Astana is deepening ties with China while expanding ties to U.S.-linked technology and supply chains. Tokayev’s speech showed that Kazakhstan also wants a voice in the institutions shaping global AI rules. A Digital Bridge With China In Shanghai, Tokayev also proposed a “Kazakhstan-China Digital Bridge.” He said the project should promote digital trade and provide a working model for connecting digital economies through the Belt and Road Initiative. He asked China to support...

Tajik-Afghan Border

Chinese Workers Return to Tajik Highway Under Guard After Afghan Border Attacks

Chinese engineers and workers have returned to a highway site in eastern Tajikistan under armed protection. Their return restarts work on a road toward China that stopped after two attacks from Afghanistan killed five Chinese nationals in November. Tajikistan's Transport Ministry said Chinese specialists came back in April to the Kalai-Khumb to Vanj section of the Dushanbe-Kulma highway in Gorno-Badakhshan. They are advising local crews, pouring concrete, fitting tunnel lighting and completing other works. Ozodi said its correspondent saw Tajik special forces guarding Chinese workers in Darvaz in late May, but security officers did not allow photos or video. The return keeps the China-funded Dushanbe-Kulma corridor moving. The road links Dushanbe with the Kulma Pass on the Chinese frontier through the Pamir. The Kalai-Khumb-Vanj works sit close to the Pyanj River, where attacks from the Afghan side are impacting the cost of Chinese projects. Construction on the Kalai-Khumb-Vanj section began on Sept. 20, 2022, with the contract running until September 20, 2026. The contractor is China Road and Bridge Corporation. China is funding the work with a $230 million grant. Once complete, the road section should shrink from 109 kilometers to 92.3 kilometers. It includes two tunnels, five anti-avalanche corridors and 14 bridges. The route crosses Darvaz, one of Tajikistan's hardest mountain road sections. The Transport Ministry has described it as a route that had gone for years without major repairs. The work is meant to allow year-round movement and lower fuel and travel costs. By January, crews had finished 12 of the 14 bridges. Two bridges, avalanche corridors and tunnel systems remained under construction. Work stopped after the November 30 attack in Shodak, a village in Darvaz district. Tajikistan's Border Troops said an armed group came from Ruzvayak in Afghanistan's Badakhshan province and attacked CRBC employees. Two Chinese citizens were killed and two were wounded. Dushanbe called the attackers members of an armed terrorist group, but did not publicly name the organization. Four days earlier, another attack hit Shamsiddin Shohin district in Khatlon, also from Afghan territory. The Chinese embassy said three Chinese citizens were killed and one Chinese citizen was wounded. TCA previously reported that Tajikistan described the strike as using an unmanned aerial vehicle carrying explosives. China reacted with a rare public warning. On December 1, the Chinese embassy urged Chinese companies and personnel to evacuate the Tajik-Afghan border area. Its latest June 9 public warning still told Chinese citizens not to work or travel in Tajikistan's southern border areas, citing a complex security situation and extreme weather. Afghanistan's Taliban government promised cooperation after the killings. Reuters quoted Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi as saying, "The Islamic Emirate is fully prepared to strengthen border security, conduct joint investigations, and engage in any form of coordination… joint measures against malicious elements are a pressing necessity." Taliban officials later said suspects had been detained in Afghanistan's Badakhshan province. The Tajik authorities say the border is stable and under control, while continuing to announce smuggling cases and armed incidents....