China - The Times Of Central Asia

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Bilateral Trade

Kazakhstan’s Trade with China Is Growing, but the Deficit Is Widening

Kazakhstan’s trade and economic ties with China continue to deepen, yet the expansion in bilateral trade is accompanied by a widening imbalance. By the end of 2025, China had consolidated its position as one of the country’s key trading partners, accounting for nearly a quarter of total foreign trade turnover. According to data from the analytical centre of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), bilateral trade reached $34.1 billion, an increase of 13.2% compared with the previous year. China’s share in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade rose to 23.7% from 21.2% a year earlier. Growth in trade was driven primarily by an increase in imports of Chinese goods. In 2025, imports from China reached $18.9 billion, 23.6% higher than the previous year. China accounted for 29.2% of all imports into the country. The structure of imports indicates growth in shipments of both consumer goods and industrial products. The largest increases were recorded in vehicles (+$3.4 billion), metals (+$645 million), and chemical products (+$412 million). According to analysts, this reflects expanding investment activity, infrastructure projects, and domestic demand. In contrast to imports, Kazakhstan’s exports to China showed only moderate growth, rising by 2.1% to $15.2 billion. At the same time, the export structure changed. Shipments of agricultural and chemical products increased, while exports of traditional raw materials declined. Experts attribute this to cooling industrial demand in China, lower global commodity prices, and growth in domestic production within China itself. Faster growth in imports led to a sharp deterioration in the trade balance. According to AFK data, the bilateral trade deficit with China increased tenfold, from $370 million to $3.7 billion. At the same time, price trends for goods imported from China remained largely downward. Declining prices for a number of items are linked to low inflation in China and increased competition from Chinese manufacturers in foreign markets. This, in turn, is exerting a restraining effect on inflation in Kazakhstan, partially offsetting price increases driven by domestic factors such as tariffs, demand, and budget spending. In the short term, analysts expect imports from China to remain the main driver of bilateral trade. Kazakhstan’s exports, meanwhile, will depend on commodity prices and the level of industrial demand in China. High oil prices (above $100 per barrel) could temporarily reduce the deficit by boosting export revenues. However, this effect would be largely price-driven and is unlikely to change the overall structure of trade.

Investment

Tajikistan’s Reliance on External Funding for State Investment Projects Is Growing

Tajikistan continues to implement a large-scale state investment programme. International financial institutions play a key role in financing these projects, however, while the government's own contribution remains limited. According to data from the State Committee on Investment and State Property Management, 82 state investment projects are currently under way in the country The total value of ongoing initiatives is estimated at approximately $4.67 billion. Of these, 55 projects are being implemented on a grant basis, five through loans, and another 22 have mixed financing. About $3 billion has already been allocated for procurement, works, and services related to the implementation of these projects. However, more than 70% of the funding is provided by just three international institutions. The World Bank remains the largest donor, contributing $1.725 billion (36.9%). It is followed by the Asian Development Bank with $914.7 million (19.5%) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) with $658.1 million (14.1%). Other investors include the Islamic Development Bank ($207.9 million), the Chinese government ($194.9 million), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ($142.5 million), the German Development Bank ($129.3 million), and the European Investment Bank ($114.8 million). Against the backdrop of extensive external financing, Tajikistan’s own contribution remains small. The state is investing approximately $151.2 million, accounting for only 3.2% of the total. This means that the implementation of key infrastructure and social projects largely depends on international donors and lenders. At the same time, in 2025 Tajikistan managed to significantly increase capital inflows. Foreign investment reached approximately $7 billion, rising by nearly $2 billion (35.1%) compared with the previous year. The authorities hope to sustain this momentum by improving the investment climate, including through legislative updates. A key step was the adoption on May 14, 2025, of a new version of the law “On Investments and the Promotion of Investment Activity,” aimed at increasing the country’s attractiveness to international partners. The current development model allows Tajikistan to implement large-scale projects that would be difficult to carry out relying solely on domestic resources. However, this financing structure also increases dependence on external sources, making the economy more sensitive to the conditions set by international institutions and the global financial environment.

Agriculture

Kyrgyzstan Sees No Grounds for Restricting Potato Imports from China

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry has stated that there are no grounds for restricting potato imports from China. The announcement follows reports that the domestic market has been flooded with Chinese potatoes allegedly being sold as locally produced goods. In response, the ministry’s Veterinary and Phytosanitary Control Service conducted monitoring of potato sales in Bishkek and Osh. According to officials, imported Chinese potatoes are present on the market, but no confirmed cases were identified in which such products were falsely labeled as local produce. Currently, the average retail price of imported Chinese potatoes ranges from 38 to 40 soms per kilogram, while locally grown potatoes are sold at prices of around 42 to 44 soms per kilogram. The ministry also noted that Kyrgyzstan’s obligations under the World Trade Organization framework limit the scope for imposing unilateral import restrictions. Officials emphasized that agricultural trade between Kyrgyzstan and China is mutual, with Kyrgyz products also being exported to the Chinese market. In addition, the Veterinary and Phytosanitary Control Service has advised domestic potato farmers to accelerate sales of stored produce. Some producers are reportedly holding stocks in warehouses in anticipation of higher prices. However, the service believes that price increases are unlikely as the arrival of the new harvest is expected to boost supply. Officials warned that prolonged storage may lead to spoilage and financial losses. In related developments, the Ministry of Agriculture has announced the start of corn exports to China. The first shipment, totaling 25 tons, departed on March 16. The export became possible following the signing of a protocol on phytosanitary requirements for corn exports from Kyrgyzstan to China between the Kyrgyz Ministry of Agriculture and China’s General Administration of Customs. To date, two Kyrgyz enterprises have been authorized to export corn under this framework. Trade between Kyrgyzstan and China continues to expand. According to Chinese Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Liu Jiangping, bilateral trade turnover reached $27.2 billion, representing a 20% increase and a record high. He also noted that China’s imports from Kyrgyzstan grew by 86%.

Diplomatic Talks

Xi Jinping and Berdymuhamedov Sr. Discuss Expansion of China-Turkmenistan Partnership

Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, Turkmenistan's former president and leader of its People's Council, during the latter’s official visit to China. The meeting took place on March 18 at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, according to a statement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Xi noted that China had recently completed its annual parliamentary meetings, commonly referred to as the “Two Sessions,” during which key socio-economic priorities were outlined. He said the country’s new development agenda would support modernization efforts and create additional opportunities for international cooperation. The Chinese president said that mutual political support remains central to the comprehensive strategic partnership between Beijing and Ashgabat. He reaffirmed China’s readiness to continue backing Turkmenistan on issues related to sovereignty, territorial integrity, and its internationally recognized policy of permanent neutrality. Xi and Berdymuhamedov discussed expanding cooperation in the energy sector, particularly natural gas supplies, as well as in trade, investment, transport connectivity, agriculture, artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and clean energy. Both leaders also highlighted the importance of aligning China’s Belt and Road Initiative with Turkmenistan’s plans to revitalize historic Silk Road trade routes. Humanitarian cooperation was another focus of the talks, including plans to develop educational and cultural exchanges and establish joint centers. The leaders also discussed coordination on regional security challenges, including efforts to counter terrorism, separatism, and extremism. Berdymuhamedov reaffirmed Turkmenistan’s commitment to the One China principle and expressed readiness to deepen bilateral cooperation in energy, infrastructure, and trade. He said closer ties with China were important for Turkmenistan’s long-term economic development and again noted Beijing’s support for the country’s neutrality policy. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also attended the meeting. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the visit followed Berdymuhamedov’s trip to the United States in mid-February, the details of which were not fully disclosed. Shortly after his return, Turkmenistan’s President, Gurbanguly's son Serdar Berdymuhamedov, dismissed the country’s ambassador to the U.S. and its permanent representative to the United Nations. No official explanation was provided for the personnel changes.

Tajik-Afghan Border

China to Fund Construction of Nine Border Facilities in Tajikistan Near Afghanistan

China will finance the construction of nine border facilities in Tajikistan’s frontier regions with Afghanistan, according to a project approved by Tajik lawmakers earlier this month. The plan was reviewed and adopted during a March 4 session of the Majlisi Namoyandagon, the lower house of Tajikistan’s parliament, Asia-Plus reported. The construction project, valued at more than 550 million Tajikistani somoni (approximately $57,425,000), will be fully funded by the Chinese government. In turn, Tajikistan will exempt the project from taxes, customs duties, and other mandatory payments. According to Muradali Rajabzoda, first deputy chairman of Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security, the initiative is intended to strengthen the logistical and technical capabilities of the country’s border forces. Speaking during the parliamentary session, Rajabzoda said the project would be implemented in three phases, with exchange letters already signed to launch the second stage. The total construction area of the facilities is expected to reach 17,109 square meters. Rajabzoda said the Chinese government would provide the financing “on a grant basis,” meaning the funds will not need to be repaid. Although authorities have not disclosed the precise locations of the planned installations, they confirmed that the facilities will be built in Tajikistan’s border regions with Afghanistan. According to Bahriddin Ziyoi, a member of the parliamentary committee on law enforcement, defense, and security, the Chinese side will also carry out research and design work related to the project. In addition to financing construction, China is expected to supply equipment, building materials, and engineering specialists. Chinese engineers will travel to Tajikistan to install and configure technical systems at the sites. The project will also include office and residential furnishings, computers, and other equipment necessary for operating the facilities. Infrastructure development will form another component of the plan. China will assist in building access roads to the border facilities and installing water supply, drainage systems, and electricity connections. Funding from Beijing is expected to begin after internal procedures in China are completed. Tajik authorities say the exchange letters governing the project were approved by the government in November 2025 and later submitted to parliament following consultations with relevant ministries and agencies. Officials also stated that the documents underwent an anti-corruption review and no risks were identified. The new facilities follow earlier cooperation between the two countries. According to Tajik security officials, 12 border installations were constructed in 2017-2018 in Tajikistan’s frontier areas with Afghanistan with financial support from China. Security cooperation between the two countries has previously drawn international attention. In 2024, the British newspaper The Telegraph reported that China had built a secret military base in Tajikistan, citing satellite imagery and describing a facility in mountainous terrain where Chinese and Tajik forces allegedly conducted joint exercises. Tajik authorities have repeatedly rejected those claims. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that reports about a Chinese military base on Tajik territory “do not correspond to reality,” adding that the issue has not been part of bilateral discussions between the two countries. China and Tajikistan have expanded security...

TCA Interviews

Uzbekistan’s Ambassador to Kazakhstan on Regional Integration and a Shifting Global Order

Amid shifting regional dynamics and an evolving global order, Uzbekistan has emerged as one of Central Asia’s most proactive diplomatic and economic actors. Since 2016, Tashkent has pursued an ambitious reform agenda at home while expanding cooperation with its neighbors and major global powers. In a wide-ranging interview with TCA, His Excellency Bakhtiyor Ibragimov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan, discusses regional integration, strategic partnerships, Afghanistan, China, and the future of economic diplomacy in Central Asia. TCA: Mr. Ambassador, Uzbekistan has demonstrated significant economic progress in recent years. What do you see as the key drivers behind this success? Ambassador Ibragimov: First of all, welcome to the Embassy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in Astana. We are familiar with your publication. We read it often, follow it, and analyze it. I would start with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev taking office at the end of 2016. It is no secret that until 2016, the Republic of Uzbekistan, despite its potential, was a fairly closed country. Our president always asks us, his representatives abroad, to speak openly about this. You cannot rewrite history or hide it. Relations with our neighbors were, frankly, at a very low level, and with some, there were no relations at all. The end of 2016 was a turning point, when reforms were not only declared but implemented and are now yielding results. One of President Mirziyoyev’s first foreign-policy priorities was normalization, and I want to emphasize this: normalization and then improving relations with neighbors. There is a saying in Uzbekistan: "If your neighbor is doing well, then you will also do well." Today, nearly a decade later, we can see that this policy is yielding results. Please note: this is not my personal assessment, but the assessment of international experts who recognize that the President has managed to achieve what once seemed impossible. I am speaking about regional integration with our neighbors. For example, a key issue for Central Asia is water. Many analysts warn that competition for water resources could, in the future, become a potential source of conflict. Two main rivers feed the region. Unfortunately, due to climate change, water volumes are not increasing year by year, while consumption is rising. We have managed to resolve almost all issues to date. In particular, based on the level of accumulation in the autumn-winter period in the upper reaches of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, and taking into account irrigation needs during the growing season, our water specialists jointly agree on and ensure the necessary water discharge within an agreed time frame. Uzbekistan, as you know, is located in the very center of Central Asia, bordering all Central Asian states, as well as Afghanistan. Today, border issues have largely been resolved. The final chord was struck on March 31, 2025, when the leaders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement on the border junction point, confirming the point of convergence of the three countries’ state borders. It should also be...