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Electricity

Kyrgyzstan’s Power Consumption Rises Amid Declining Water Levels at Toktogul Reservoir

Electricity consumption in Kyrgyzstan continues to rise. In 2025, the country consumed 19.3 billion kWh, an increase of 900 million kWh compared to the previous year. Of this total, 15.4 billion kWh was generated domestically, while 3.9 billion kWh was imported from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia, officials reported at a government meeting on 14 January. Authorities also highlighted critically low water levels at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant, the country’s largest energy facility, which generates approximately 40% of its electricity. The Toktogul reservoir currently holds 9.102 billion cubic meters of water, a drop of 1.631 billion cubic meters compared to the same date in 2024. The reservoir is approaching the critical or “dead” level of 5.5 billion cubic meters, below which the plant would be unable to generate electricity. Officials at the meeting warned that continued low inflows could force a reduction in power generation and stressed the importance of adhering strictly to electricity consumption limits. Kyrgyzstan has long struggled with seasonal electricity shortages, particularly in winter, when many households rely on electric heating. Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev previously cautioned that the 2025–2026 winter season could be one of the most difficult in recent years due to the water shortfall at Toktogul. To address the electricity deficit, Kyrgyzstan is pressing ahead with both the construction of new hydropower projects and the modernization of existing facilities. In November 2025, the country completed a full modernization of Toktogul, located on the Naryn River. The upgrade increased the plant’s capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW. Kyrgyzstan is also moving forward with the construction of the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant, a strategic regional project being developed in partnership with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once completed, Kambarata-1 is expected to have a capacity of 1,860 MW and produce 5.6 billion kWh annually.

Energy

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan Sign Trilateral Deal on Water and Energy Cooperation

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have signed a trilateral protocol on water and energy cooperation, covering the upcoming winter heating period and the 2026 agricultural season. The agreement was formalized at a meeting of the countries’ energy and water ministers held in Almaty on November 22. With water levels at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir critically low, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have agreed to supply electricity to Kyrgyzstan during the winter months. This will allow Kyrgyzstan to reduce electricity generation during peak heating demand and conserve water in the Toktogul Reservoir. The stored water will later be released downstream to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the 2026 growing season to ensure consistent irrigation for farmland in their southern regions. The Toktogul HPP, located on the Naryn River, a key tributary of the Syr Darya, is Kyrgyzstan’s largest power station, supplying about 40% of the country’s electricity. It plays a dual role: meeting domestic energy needs and regulating water flows critical to downstream agricultural systems. In winter, Kyrgyzstan typically ramps up power output to meet heating demand, often at the expense of reservoir levels, which can compromise irrigation capacity the following spring. Under the new protocol, Uzbekistan has also pledged to support regional electricity balancing and ensure transit capacity. Earlier, the three countries agreed to facilitate cross-border electricity flows, including Russian electricity transiting to Kyrgyzstan via Kazakhstan, and Turkmen electricity reaching Kyrgyzstan through Uzbekistan’s transmission grid. Participants in the Almaty meeting emphasized that the trilateral agreement reflects a spirit of good neighborliness and is aimed at enhancing regional energy security and stability. The agreement is particularly critical for Kyrgyzstan, which faces persistent electricity shortages, especially during the winter when electric heating is widely used. On November 18, Kyrgyzstan completed the full modernization of the Toktogul HPP, with the commissioning of its fourth generating unit. The upgrade raised the facility’s total capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW. In parallel, Kyrgyzstan is advancing construction of the Kambarata-1 HPP, a major regional project being developed jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once completed, Kambarata-1 will have a generation capacity of 1,860 MW and produce 5.6 billion kWh annually.

Electricity

Kyrgyzstan Faces Power Shortages Amid Record Low Water Levels at Toktogul Reservoir

Kyrgyz authorities have warned of potential rolling blackouts this winter due to critically low water levels at the country’s main hydropower facility, the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Station. At a press conference in Bishkek, Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev reported that as of mid-September, the Toktogul reservoir had accumulated just 10.8 billion cubic meters of water, 1.5 billion cubic meters less than at the same time last year. The shortfall significantly limits the country’s electricity generation capacity during peak winter demand. “Kyrgyzstan is facing a persistent energy crisis, exacerbated by insufficient water reserves amid global warming and rising demand for electricity,” Ibraev stated. Hydropower provides around 90 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity. If water levels at Toktogul fall to 6.5 billion cubic meters, the turbines will be unable to function, increasing the risk of large-scale outages. Officials clarified, however, that the current deficit does not necessarily mean the country will face a total blackout during the winter of 2025-26. On the eve of the announcement, energy ministers from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan met in the town of Cholpon-Ata, where they agreed to facilitate electricity transit from Russia and Turkmenistan through their respective territories. “Through joint efforts, we will ensure an uninterrupted power supply to our cities and strengthen regional energy security. We expect our Kazakh and Uzbek colleagues to adhere to the delivery schedules set out in the signed protocols,” Ibraev added.

Aral Sea

Kazakhstan Sees Record Water Recovery in Northern Aral Sea

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation has reported a record increase in the volume of water in the Northern Aral Sea, exceeding national and international expectations. Water Returns to the Sea Since 2023, approximately 5 billion cubic meters of water have flowed into the basin, bringing the total reserve to 24.1 billion cubic meters. This figure surpasses the target set under Kazakhstan’s Water Resources Management Concept, which had aimed for only 20.6 billion cubic meters by 2025. The current level was not expected to be reached before 2029. Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov said that with the support of a World Bank grant, a feasibility study is underway to raise the Kokaral Dam by two meters and construct a new hydraulic facility. The project is designed to stabilize water levels in the Akshatau and Kamystybas lake systems. “The project aims to increase both the volume and quality of water in the Northern Aral Sea, restore the Syr Darya delta, reduce salt dispersion from the exposed seabed, develop the fishing industry in the Kyzylorda region, and improve living conditions for local communities,” the minister stated. International Cooperation Deputy Minister Nurlan Aldamzharov has said the second phase of the initiative envisions raising the Northern Aral’s capacity to 35 cubic kilometers. He emphasized the critical role of regional cooperation, particularly with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, as the sea’s recovery depends on sustained inflows from the Syr Darya River. Ministry spokesperson Moldir Abdualyeva attributed the recent progress to “water diplomacy, effective resource allocation, and conservation efforts.” Environmental and Social Impact The increase in water volume has led to a corresponding expansion of the sea’s surface area. As of February 2025, the Northern Aral covered 3,065 square kilometers, an increase of 111 square kilometers over the past three years. This has reduced salinity levels and enabled the return of 22 fish species to the ecosystem. The annual fish catch now totals around 8,000 tons, offering renewed economic opportunities for local communities. To further support the region, Kazakhstan has raised subsidies for farmers implementing water-saving technologies, increasing compensation rates from 50% to 80%. Officials say the measure is intended to conserve water while promoting sustainable agriculture in surrounding areas. The Small Aral Sea, or Northern Aral, was formed in 1987 during the broader desiccation of the Aral Sea and preserved following the construction of the Kokaral Dam. In 2012, it was added, alongside the Syr Darya delta, to the Ramsar List of Wetlands of International Importance. Kazakhstan assumed the rotating chairmanship of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) in 2024, further strengthening its leadership role in regional water cooperation and ecosystem restoration.

Caspian Sea

Kazakhstan Initiates International Program to Save the Caspian Sea

The ongoing shallowing of the Caspian Sea is no longer a national issue, it is emerging as a significant international challenge. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized that the crisis requires collective action and the adoption of an intergovernmental program. Since the early 2000s, the Caspian Sea’s water level has been steadily declining. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, by the summer of 2025, the sea had fallen below 29 meters relative to global sea level, marking a historic low. The northern basin, which borders Russia and Kazakhstan, is drying up particularly rapidly, due in large part to decreased flow from the Volga River. This is not the first time Kazakhstan has raised concerns about the Caspian Sea on the international stage. According to Tokayev, “the need to develop an intergovernmental program to preserve the Caspian Sea has matured.” The president believes that participation should extend beyond the five littoral states, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, to include other nations invested in the region’s environmental health. He recalled that during his visit to China in early September, he proposed the creation of a specialized international organization. “This is not only a problem for one country, but for a number of states,” Tokayev stressed in his annual address to the nation. At the same time, the president acknowledged that Kazakhstan faces its own internal water management challenges. Losses in some irrigation and water channels reach 50-60%, and resource accounting is still being carried out using outdated technologies. “As for the culture of conserving natural resources, especially water, we must admit that we have big problems here: as they say, the horse didn’t lie down,” Tokayev remarked. To address these issues, he proposed creating a unified digital platform for water resources, powered by artificial intelligence. This platform would enable accurate hydrogeological monitoring and the development of a national water balance. Tokayev said this system would provide the foundation for a long-term water policy and help attract investment into the sector. Tokayev also stressed that environmental safety should become part of Kazakhstan’s national ideology. He highlighted the ongoing Taza Kazakhstan (“Clean Kazakhstan”) initiative, which began in 2024. Under this project, approximately 860,000 hectares of land have been cleaned and over 4 million trees planted. “If such active work continues, Kazakhstan will become a truly green country, an inspiring example and a valuable legacy for future generations,” Tokayev said. He also called for the introduction of a unified standard for environmental education, from schools to universities.

Water Conservation

Kyrgyzstan Drafts Program to Preserve Lake Issyk-Kul

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Natural Resources, Ecology, and Technical Supervision has released a draft Concept for the Sustainable Development of the Ecological and Economic System of Lake Issyk-Kul until 2030 for public discussion. The proposal addresses mounting environmental challenges that threaten the future of the lake, a vital component of the country’s climate system, biodiversity, and tourism industry. Located in northeastern Kyrgyzstan, Issyk-Kul is the nation's largest lake and one of its most important ecological assets and tourist destinations. The new Concept outlines a roadmap for sustainable management amid signs of accelerating environmental degradation. Falling Water Levels The lake’s water level has dropped by 2.75 meters between 1927 and 2003. To reverse this trend, the Concept recommends restoring hydrological monitoring infrastructure, including groundwater observation and river hydro-posts. It also proposes enforcing irrigation water accounting and transitioning local agriculture to water-saving technologies. Glacier Retreat and River Flow The 957 glaciers in the Issyk-Kul basin, spanning 560.8 km², are rapidly melting due to climate change. These glaciers feed roughly 120 rivers flowing into the lake, though only 80 reach it during the summer, largely due to irrigation withdrawals. To mitigate the loss, the government plans to introduce modern irrigation systems across 100,000 hectares of farmland, potentially redirecting up to 200 million cubic meters of water back into the lake annually. Wastewater and Sewerage Infrastructure Untreated wastewater from settlements and tourism infrastructure poses a serious threat to the lake’s ecosystem. The Concept includes measures to upgrade wastewater treatment, promote the reuse of treated water for irrigation, and expand sewerage systems. Over the past five years, 47 new treatment facilities have been built in the Issyk-Kul region. 2030 Environmental Goals The Concept sets several targets for the next five years: Reduce untreated wastewater discharge by 40% Expand specially protected natural areas to cover 20% of the region Implement ecotourism standards at all recreational facilities Introduce separate waste collection in all district centers Involve at least 80% of schoolchildren in environmental education programs “Issyk-Kul is a strategic resource for Kyrgyzstan. The Concept aims to ensure clean water, protect the shoreline, create safe recreation areas, and boost tourism and entrepreneurship,” said Meder Mashiev, Minister of Natural Resources, Ecology, and Technical Supervision.