Caspian Sea - The Times Of Central Asia

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Caspian Sea

Shrinking Caspian Sea Challenges Kazakhstan’s Transport Ambitions, Environmentalist Warns

Kazakhstan’s plans to develop the Trans-Caspian transport route face a growing environmental challenge as the Caspian Sea shrinks. Environmentalist Vadim Ni questioned the coordination behind those plans in an interview with The Times of Central Asia. "Negotiations on the Trans-Caspian Corridor are taking place at the presidential level and among the economic ministries, while the Ministry of Ecology still does not know what its role is within this route. It only recently became involved in negotiations on the issue. But how can you develop the Trans-Caspian Corridor if the sea continues to shrink?" he emphasized. Ni, an environmental law specialist and founder of the Save the Caspian Sea movement, also called for greater domestic environmental spending. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan should increase their own funding rather than relying primarily on international climate funds, he argued. His comments come as the 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP31) opens on November 9 in Antalya, Turkey. The conference runs through November 20. The Caspian Sea Is Shrinking as Transport Ambitions Grow The falling water level of the Caspian Sea is already affecting coastal ecosystems, fisheries, and transport infrastructure. For Kazakhstan, the problem has taken on additional economic significance because of the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which connects China and Central Asia with Europe via the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus. According to the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, water levels in Kazakhstan's sector fell by 2.45 meters between 1996 and 2025. In July 2026, the monitoring station on Kulaly Island recorded a level of 29.42 meters below the reference elevation datum, the lowest reading in the observation record. Between 2016 and 2025, the sea's surface area shrank by approximately 11,200 square kilometers. Along some sections of the northeastern coast, the shoreline retreated by more than 20 kilometers. [caption id="attachment_60278" align="aligncenter" width="1440"] Satellite images show the northern Caspian Sea on September 20, 2006, and September 19, 2022, revealing exposed land as waters receded. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview.[/caption] In October, Kazakhstan began large-scale dredging operations at the Port of Aktau. The project involves removing about 1.3 million cubic meters of sediment and deepening the port area to 6–7 meters. According to the Ministry of Transport, this could increase freight volumes along the route by up to 30% and reduce maritime transportation costs by 10–15%. Ni believes the shrinking Caspian Sea has received the political attention it needs, although the problem cannot be resolved without coordinated action by the countries bordering the sea. "The issue of the Caspian Sea's falling water level is being addressed relatively well because it has been raised to the highest level – that of Kazakhstan's president. The same can be said of the Aral Sea. There are many difficulties, and the problem depends on coordinating decisions among several countries, but progress is being made," he explained. He also warned about the environmental consequences of the retreating water....

Oil Transit

Kazakhstan Oil Exports: Talks With Azerbaijan on Higher BTC Shipments

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are discussing ways to increase shipments of Kazakh oil across the Caspian Sea and through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. In the first nine months of 2026, shipments from Aktau through the pipeline rose 24% year on year to 1.16 million metric tons. At a meeting in Baku on November 3, Askhat Khassenov, chairman of the management board of KazMunayGas (KMG), and Rovshan Najaf, president of the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), discussed increasing oil transit through Azerbaijan, according to SOCAR. KMG said the companies were studying geological data from prospective exploration areas in both countries and considering deploying Kazakhstan’s Satti drilling rig at offshore fields in Azerbaijan. The meeting followed another disruption to Kazakhstan’s oil exports through Russia. On November 2, a drone attack on the Samara production and dispatch facility forced a suspension of pumping through the Atyrau–Samara pipeline. Shipments resumed the following day. Earlier attacks had also affected infrastructure belonging to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles most of the country’s oil exports. In 2025, Kazakhstan exported 64.8 million metric tons of oil through the CPC and approximately 9.3 million metric tons through the Atyrau–Samara pipeline. Kazakh oil has been transported along the Aktau–Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan route since 2023. Tankers carry the crude across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, where it enters the pipeline running to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, providing an export outlet that bypasses Russia’s pipeline network. In 2024, KMG and SOCAR agreed to gradually increase transit volumes to 2.2 million metric tons annually. Kazakhstan’s target for 2026 is 1.7 million metric tons. On October 1, Daulet Arykbayev, director of the Oil Transportation and Refining Department at Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, told Platts that Azerbaijan was willing to raise annual transit volumes to 2.7 million metric tons. He said shipments could reach 7 million metric tons a year over the next few years. The BTC pipeline has a capacity of 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, according to Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy. Platts reported in October that it was carrying around 500,000–600,000 barrels a day. The spare capacity offers room for additional Kazakh shipments, although transporting crude across the Caspian Sea adds to the cost. In its 2025 Annual Report, KMG described negotiations with SOCAR over lower tariffs and efforts to assess how Kazakh crude affects the quality of the Azeri Light export blend. That year, shipments from Aktau to Baku were suspended from August to October because of technical restrictions related to oil contamination in the BTC system. According to KMG, 1.3 million metric tons were transported along the trans-Caspian route during the year, 7% less than in 2024. Azerbaijani statistics show that total oil shipments through the BTC pipeline fell 8.3% year on year to 18.86 million metric tons in January–September 2026, despite increased shipments of Kazakh crude.

Marine Research

In Ashgabat, Caspian States Discuss Cooperation on Marine Research

Turkmenistan hosted a meeting of the Caspian Sea littoral states to discuss cooperation on marine scientific research, part of a wider effort by the Central Asian country to promote regional collaboration over the fragile, strategic body of water. Turkmenistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said delegates discussed a draft agreement about research in the Caspian Sea, where countries want to develop large oil and gas reserves while trying to mitigate the impact on the marine environment. The five littoral states are Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. “The current meeting is expected to facilitate further progress in finalizing the remaining provisions of the draft,” the ministry said, noting that the two-day meeting was scheduled to end on Wednesday. It said the initiative on scientific research was first proposed at a Caspian summit in 2018 by Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, then president of Turkmenistan. Berdimuhamedov ceded the presidency to his son, Serdar, in 2022, but remains an influential figure and has the official title of National Leader of the Turkmen people. Turkmenistan also advocated collaboration in the Caspian at an oil and gas conference in the capital earlier this month. Myrat Atajanov, director of Turkmenistan’s Caspian Sea Institute, said the region faced the challenge of declining water levels in the sea and the potential risk to offshore platforms, sub-sea pipelines, and coastal infrastructure. “Atajanov stressed that the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea provides a framework for cooperation, while finalizing sector boundaries is essential for geological exploration, field development rights and offshore infrastructure planning,” said the Turkmen Energy Forum, an organizer of the oil and gas conference. Turkmenistan wants the demarcation of Caspian Sea sectors of the various countries to be finalized, saying it would provide legal certainty for offshore energy projects and other investment plans. The Turkmen government wants to expand its role as a transit point on the Middle Corridor, a trade network linking China and Central Asia to Europe via rail and Caspian Sea infrastructure. Earlier this year, the Iranian government submitted the 2018 Caspian convention to the Iranian parliament for ratification after a long delay. Unlike the other countries, Iran's parliament had not ratified the deal. Critics in Iran had argued that the agreement would leave the country at a disadvantage in securing its rights to the sea’s resources. However, Iranian officials showed renewed interest in the convention this year, saying it was a way to strengthen regional cooperation and secure Iran’s maritime rights. The development came amid wider geopolitical tension and pressure on other trade routes, although Tehran said its decision to submit the convention to parliament was not connected to the war.

Middle Corridor

How the Shrinking Caspian Sea Affects the Middle Corridor’s Potential

Paradoxically, the Caspian Sea is becoming one of Eurasia’s most important transport hubs at a time when its falling water level is creating growing constraints on navigation. As sanctions disrupt traditional trade routes through Russia, countries are investing in the Middle Corridor as an alternative link between Asia and Europe. Yet the continuing decline in sea level is limiting shipping capacity and increasing the risks and costs associated with long-term infrastructure projects. The first Caspian Environmental Summit, held in Turkmenistan on October 9, 2026, drew attention to the scale of these changes. Between 2000 and 2025, the Caspian Sea shrank by more than 16,000 square kilometers, while in some areas the shoreline receded by tens of kilometers. How the Caspian’s Falling Water Level Affects Freight The Middle Corridor, linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe, is seen as a promising route for diversifying international trade. Its development can reduce shippers’ dependence on individual transport routes and improve economic ties among countries in the region. According to the World Bank’s latest study, more than $25 billion in investment in the corridor’s core physical infrastructure will be needed through 2040. An additional $30 billion could be required for enabling infrastructure and services. The bank estimates that if infrastructure investment is combined with institutional reforms, freight volumes along the corridor could quadruple and travel times could fall by about two-thirds by 2040. A study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) notes that insufficient depths are already preventing vessels from being fully loaded, reducing transport efficiency and increasing costs. Large-scale dredging was carried out at the Port of Kuryk in 2024. Over four months, around one million cubic meters of material were removed, and the depth of the operational port area was increased to 7–8 meters, according to the port operator. This made it possible to load vessels to full capacity. Meanwhile, major dredging work is underway at Aktau, where 1.3 million cubic meters of material are to be removed to increase water depths to 6–7 meters. The work is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. Dredging, however, can only maintain the operation of individual port facilities, while further declines in the sea level may require repeated work or the reconstruction of berths. Where draft restrictions prevent full loading, transport companies may need to make more voyages to carry the same volume of cargo, increasing spending on fuel, crews, maintenance, and port operations. Constraints on the maritime section can also lead to delays for railcars and containers and disrupt transshipment schedules. These disruptions reduce the predictability of deliveries along the entire route. Similar problems are emerging on the western coast of the Caspian. Falling water levels are reducing vessel cargo capacity at Azerbaijani ports and oil terminals and requiring additional dredging. Infrastructure for Decades Ahead According to the OECD study, which cites World Bank climate projections, under a high-emissions scenario in which the Caspian water level falls by about five meters between...

Ministry of Defense

Kazakhstan Names Former Finance Official Deputy Defense Minister Amid Military Shake-Up

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev appointed Tatyana Savelyeva deputy defense minister on October 7. The former vice minister of finance and member of parliament joins a ministry undergoing a major investigation following the deaths of 14 service members during exercises in the Caspian Sea. The investigation has led to criminal cases and arrests, while senior military commanders have been dismissed. Savelyeva replaced Asker Beisenov, who was dismissed from his position on the same day. To take up the appointment, she resigned early from the Kurultai, Kazakhstan's new unicameral parliament. Savelyeva joined it in late August 2026. The 50-year-old Savelyeva has spent most of her career working in public finance. From 2016 to 2023, she served as vice minister of finance, then became a member of the Mazhilis, the lower house of the former parliament, and secretary of the Committee on Finance and Budget. She became the committee’s chair in February 2024. In August 2026, she was elected to the Kurultai representing the Adilet party. The Defense Ministry has not yet announced which areas Savelyeva will oversee. Her predecessor, Beisenov, previously headed the ministry's Department of Economics and Finance. Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev links Savelyeva's appointment to the investigation into the Defense Ministry following the deaths of the service members in the Caspian Sea. He recalled corruption investigations within the ministry, including irregularities in military procurement and supplies. In Ashimbayev's assessment, Savelyeva's experience in the Finance Ministry and parliament could prove useful in bringing order to the military budget. On September 24, during the Khazar Qorgany 2026 naval exercises in the Mangystau region, on Kazakhstan's Caspian coast, 17 service members were swept out to sea. Three were rescued, and 14 died. The tragedy sparked public outrage and questions about how the exercises were organized, personnel training, and the actions of the military command. On September 27, Tokayev dismissed Defense Minister Dauren Kosanov. Aidos Myrzakhmetov became the new head of the ministry. The chief of the General Staff, the commander-in-chief of the Naval Forces, and other senior military officers subsequently lost their positions. On October 5, the president was presented with the initial findings of the Defense Ministry investigation. A commission headed by Deputy Chair of the Security Council Aida Balayeva identified violations in the organization of exercises, service member safety, discipline, and logistical support. Thirteen criminal cases have been opened over the suspected theft of state property, abuse of office, and other violations. The deaths of the service members are being investigated separately. At the October 5 briefing, officials said five military officials had been arrested in connection with the deaths. On October 6, the Interior Ministry announced the detention of former navy commander Kanat Niyazbekov on suspicion of negligence, with a court authorizing his arrest. Investigators also uncovered cases of hazing and violence against service members. Tokayev instructed officials to prepare a military reform plan, including changes to management, personnel training, discipline, and safety measures. On September 27, he gave the Security Council Office and Defense Ministry ten days to submit the...

Military Deaths

Kazakhstan Defense Ministry Inspection Leads to 13 Criminal Cases in Wake of Soldiers’ Deaths

A comprehensive inspection of Kazakhstan’s Defense Ministry has resulted in 13 criminal cases involving suspected theft of state property, abuse of office, and other violations. The inspection follows the deaths of 14 servicemen during military exercises in the Caspian Sea on September 24. On October 5, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev heard the inspection's initial findings. The commission found serious shortcomings in the preparation and planning of the exercises, risk assessment, organization of the landing operation, and measures to ensure the servicemen’s safety. Criminal cases also concern hazing and violence against servicemen. The tragedy was followed by a reshuffle at the top of the defense establishment. On September 27, Aidos Myrzakhmetov became defense minister, replacing Dauren Kosanov, who was dismissed the same day. Myrzakhmetov had spent much of his career in the State Guard Service, the agency responsible for protecting the president and other designated officials. On October 3, Tokayev dismissed First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff Kanysh Abubakirov, Deputy Defense Minister Almaz Dzhumakeyev, and Navy Commander-in-Chief Kanat Niyazbekov. On October 5, another former senior State Guard Service officer, Aitkurman Omarbekov, was appointed First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff. Former navy commander Kanat Niyazbekov was detained on October 6 on suspicion of negligence in connection with the deaths, with a court authorizing his arrest, according to the Interior Ministry. But the president did not stop at personnel changes. Following the deaths of the marines, he ordered the preparation of a Military Reform Plan and delivered one of his harshest public assessments of the armed forces in years. “Our army is stuck in the last century… the command system must be completely rebuilt in line with advanced international practice,” Tokayev said on September 27. He described the deaths of servicemen in peacetime as the result of what he called “essentially criminal unprofessionalism by officers, including generals.” Public Anger After the Caspian Tragedy Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev wrote that the deaths of the servicemen in the Mangystau region triggered “a very strong and emotional reaction in the country,” amplified by what he called the “traditionally clumsy actions” of the military bureaucracy. “Rumors, gossip, fakes, and openly provocative content quickly began to emerge. Nor should we forget that the emergency occurred in the most difficult region,” he wrote, referring to the history of protests in oil-producing Mangystau. The public reaction was particularly intense because of the circumstances surrounding the soldiers’ deaths. The Khazar Qorgany 2026 exercises were taking place in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea. During a training mission, 17 servicemen were swept out to sea; three were rescued. For some of those who died, these were the final days of their compulsory military service. Deputy Navy Commander Arman Satkanov said some had as little as eight days left before returning home, with their tickets already purchased. Five members of the military command were detained on September 25 on suspicion of negligence and violations of navigation rules. They included the Navy chief of staff and first...