Water Scarcity - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Supply

Tajikistan Announces Water Infrastructure Drive, Urges Central Asia Cooperation

Tajikistan plans to provide at least 90% of its population with access to a centralized water supply by 2040, in a long-term infrastructure project that would reduce disparities in water services for urban and rural residents. President Emomali Rahmon spoke about Tajikistan’s water goals as well as wider collaboration in Central Asia during a speech at a Dushanbe conference that has drawn delegates from around the world for discussions on water scarcity. Tajikistan and the United Nations are co-hosting the four-day event, which ends on Thursday and is a prelude to a U.N. water conference in the United Arab Emirates in December. In 2023, the World Bank noted that Tajikistan has significant water resources, but said its infrastructure needed large-scale investment and about 55% of its population had access to “safely managed” water supplies. Only 24% of the Central Asian country’s rural population had piped water services, reflecting the big difference between urban and rural areas, according to the World Bank. It also said Tajikistan allocated a far smaller percentage of its annual budget to water supply and sanitation than in other countries in Europe and Central Asia. In his speech on Tuesday, Rahmon said “we are committed to ensuring access” to centralized water supply — a system that can promote quality of service quality and lower costs — for 90% of people in Tajikistan by 2040. “Through this measure, we are determined to guarantee access to clean drinking water for every citizen,” said the president, who has led the country for more than three decades. Tajikistan has more than 10 million people. Rahmon also described “transboundary cooperation in the water sector” as a priority and said Tajikistan will push for more dialogue in Central Asia on addressing critical water challenges. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea is an effective platform for promoting the “sustainable development” of water resources, according to the president. Other leaders in Central Asia have made similar comments about the fund, a collective effort to address the ecological disaster that followed the collapse of what was once one of the largest lakes in the world. The Aral Sea started shrinking decades ago after Soviet engineers diverted rivers for irrigation. Regional cooperation on water management has gained momentum in recent years, though some officials and analysts are still concerned that water shortages could stir tension between upstream and downstream countries in Central Asia.

Water crisis

Tajikistan and UN to Host Water Crisis Conference in Dushanbe

Tajikistan and the United Nations will co-host the 4th High-Level International Conference on the International Decade for Action "Water for Sustainable Development " 2018-2028 next week, as Central Asia and other regions face increasing water scarcity because of climate change, higher consumption, and other factors. Delegates to the May 25-28 water conference in Dushanbe include government officials, scientists, executives from financial institutions and civil society members from around the world. The goal of creating “sustainable” water resources is especially critical in Central Asia, where there is growing concern that shortages could threaten public health and stir tension between upstream and downstream countries. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, for example, are in mountainous regions and have relatively significant water resources that they share with neighboring countries. However, the resources are under strain. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, in turn, rely on the cross-border water supply that flows downstream. Central Asian governments have begun joint projects on water infrastructure to avoid the kind of tensions that emerged in the past. The Dushanbe conference is another step in that process, even though the event is global in perspective. Tajik diplomats have held briefings in Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia and other countries to promote the conference, describing Tajikistan as a leader in “water diplomacy” as the world faces a water crisis that is increasingly evident in floods, droughts, pollution and melting glaciers. Dushanbe has already hosted several international conferences on water. Saidjon Shafizoda, spokesman for Tajikistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a briefing in the Tajik capital on Wednesday that the conference can help accelerate innovation and mobilize funding for the “sustainable and inclusive” management of water, the state Khovar news agency reported. Organizers say more than 2,500 people are expected to participate.

Water Scarcity

Opinion: As Water Runs Short, Uzbekistan Faces New Migration Pressure

In the 21st century, Uzbekistan is no longer just confronting an ecological crisis - it is on the verge of socio-political transformations driven by water. As agricultural lands are being degraded and river flows are decreasing, the country is now facing what experts describe as a “slow-onset disaster”: internal climate migration. The roots of this crisis go back to the tragedy of the Aral Sea, once the world’s fourth-largest lake, which has shrunk to roughly 10% of its original area since the 1960s largely due to Soviet-era irrigation projects. The human toll has been enormous: not only is agriculture in decline, but the lives of the people living in the Aral Sea region have been profoundly altered. Each year, storms lift an estimated 15 million to 75 million tons of sand, dust, and salt from the dried Aral seabed, spreading it across Uzbekistan and the wider region. Now, another challenge is looming - the water supply. In 2018, 79,942 internally displaced people were reported in Uzbekistan. The dwindling water supply and the threat to agro-ecosystems are creating a new generation of climate migrants. The number of climate-related displacements is expected to reach 200,000 in the coming years. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, Uzbekistan’s hydrological lifelines, are under growing strain from climate change, inefficient irrigation, and transboundary water-distribution pressures. Experts warn that the country's water deficit could reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030, and 15 billion cubic meters by 2050. The World Bank predicts that Uzbekistan's economy could shrink by 10% by 2050 if no meaningful action is taken to adapt to climate change. Now, another new factor threatens to accelerate this trend. The Taliban government in Afghanistan is building the Qosh Tepa Canal, a 285-kilometer irrigation project that will divert water from the Amu Darya River. According to Rieks Bosch, an international expert on natural resources and economics, the canal will divert 20% of the Amu Darya's water, which will exacerbate water shortages in some parts of Uzbekistan and negatively affect agriculture. "In any case, Uzbekistan will definitely suffer," he said. Analyses show that up to 250,000 people could lose their jobs in agriculture as a result of water shortages. The most vulnerable regions - Bukhara, Khorezm, Karakalpakstan, Surkhandarya, and Kashkadarya - are located mainly in rural areas and depend on agriculture and livestock. With almost half of Uzbekistan’s population living outside urban centers, the loss of agricultural viability is not just an economic problem; it is the disruption of a way of life. “Water scarcity, air pollution, biodiversity loss, and a sharp decline in agricultural productivity are constantly increasing,” President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said at COP 28, acknowledging that these problems are “reaching their “critical peak.” Yet policy responses are still lagging behind the pace of environmental change. Uzbekistan’s climate migration problem cannot be solved by managing water resources alone. This requires a new strategic framework – a “Water-Migration-Security” strategy that combines regional cooperation, innovative water-saving technologies in agriculture, and proactive adaptation measures for the communities most at...

Regional Ecological Summit

Central Asia Seeks Solutions to Water Scarcity Amid Climate Risks

Central Asian countries must accelerate the transition from discussing climate goals to implementing them in practice, as water scarcity intensifies and the impacts of climate change deepen, participants at a regional conference said on Friday. A key event on the final day of the Regional Ecological Summit (RES 2026) in Astana was the Central Asian Climate Change Conference (CACCC), where government officials, international organizations, and experts discussed risks to the region’s water, energy, and food security. Participants noted that declining water availability requires a fundamental shift in resource management approaches. [caption id="attachment_47800" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: TCA[/caption] “In conditions of reduced water availability, the priority is no longer increasing water intake but improving efficiency in water use. Today, government support for water-saving technologies covers up to 80% of costs. This represents a fundamental shift toward rational and economically sound water management,” said Kazakhstan’s Vice Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Talgat Momyshev. According to him, by 2030, the use of such technologies is expected to expand to more than 1.3 million hectares, potentially reducing agricultural water consumption by approximately 30%. “This is not just about saving resources, but about forming a new management model where data, forecasting, and cross-sectoral coordination play a central role,” he added. Kazakhstan is also developing a national water information system that will integrate data on surface and groundwater resources. More than 6,000 canals are expected to be digitized by the end of the year, enabling a shift toward predictive water management. Participants placed particular emphasis on the transboundary nature of water resources in the region. [caption id="attachment_47801" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: TCA[/caption] “The development of joint monitoring systems and data exchange, the creation of resilient infrastructure, and the coordination of water and energy policies are becoming increasingly important. We believe that data, trust, and joint planning must form the foundation of effective climate adaptation,” Momyshev said. International partners confirmed their readiness to expand support for the region. “Our current efforts in the water sector are reflected in the Swiss Cooperation Programme for Central Asia for 2026-2029," said Tobias Werder, a representative of the Swiss government. "More than half of its $200 million budget is allocated to water-related projects. Since 2017, we have also actively promoted the Blue Peace Central Asia initiative, which helps strengthen regional coordination and move from dialogue to practical solutions.” Kazakhstan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Yerlan Nyssanbayev, noted that the climate agenda in the region extends far beyond environmental issues. “For Central Asia, climate change is no longer a distant projection. It is a factor directly affecting water, energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and public health. Under these conditions, the climate agenda becomes a matter of economic resilience, regional security, and the quality of public governance,” he said. [caption id="attachment_47799" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: TCA[/caption] According to Nyssanbayev, the region must accelerate the implementation of concrete projects. “It is now clear that we must focus on improving project preparation, expanding access to climate finance, and strengthening coordination. Without this, achieving our stated goals will be...

Water Scarcity

Central Asia and the Global Water Crisis: A Test of Governance and Cooperation

Water scarcity is rapidly transforming from a regional environmental concern into one of the defining global security challenges of the 21st century. UN-linked assessments estimate that around four billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month each year, and nearly three-quarters of the global population lives in countries facing water insecurity. Against this backdrop, Central Asia is not an exception but rather a concentrated example of global dynamics: climate pressure, population growth, and inefficient resource management. Regional initiatives, including proposals put forward by Kazakhstan, therefore have the potential to contribute not only to stability in Central Asia but to the development of a more coherent global water governance architecture. The Water Crisis as a Global Reality Water is increasingly regarded as a strategic resource on par with energy and food. Climate change is intensifying droughts, floods, and the degradation of aquatic ecosystems across all regions, from Africa and the Middle East to South Asia, Europe, and North America. Recent mapping and analysis by investigative groups and international media indicate that half of the world’s 100 largest cities experience high levels of water stress, with dozens classified as facing extremely high levels. Major urban centers, including Beijing, New York, Los Angeles, Rio de Janeiro, and Delhi, are among those under acute pressure, while cities such as London, Bangkok, and Jakarta are also categorized as highly stressed. In this context, Central Asia is not an outlier. It is confronting today what may soon become the global norm. Central Asia: Where Global Trends Converge A defining feature of the current environmental situation is that factors beyond natural ones drive the water crisis. Experts increasingly stress that shortages are often less about absolute physical scarcity and more about outdated management systems, infrastructure losses, and inefficient consumption patterns. In this respect, Central Asia can be seen as a testing ground for global water challenges, where multiple stress factors converge. The region, with mountain peaks exceeding 7,000 meters, contains some of the largest ice reserves outside the polar regions. The Pamir and Hindu Kush ranges, together with the Tibetan Plateau, the Himalayas, and the Tien Shan, form part of what is sometimes referred to as the “Third Pole,” the largest concentration of ice after the Arctic and Antarctic. [caption id="attachment_13410" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The White Horse Pass, Tajikistan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] However, the pace of change is alarming. By 2030-2040, water scarcity in Central Asia risks becoming chronic. Glaciers in the Western Tien Shan, for example, have reportedly shrunk by roughly 27% over the past two decades and continue to retreat, posing a direct threat to the flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. These rivers increasingly fail to reach the Aral Sea in sufficient volume, while the exposed seabed has become a major source of salt and dust storms. [caption id="attachment_21928" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Moynaq, Karakalpakstan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Infrastructure inefficiencies compound the problem. Estimates suggest that in some systems, 40-50% of water can be lost in deteriorating...

Water Shortages

Kazakhstan Warns of Severe Water Shortages as Syr Darya Levels Drop

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, gave a sober warning to the country on January 13 that this year there could be significantly less water for agriculture in the southern parts of the country. Nurzhigitov said that as of January 12, there was 1.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) less water in the reservoirs of southern Kazakhstan than on that date in 2025. The Importance of the Syr-Darya These areas are part of the Syr Darya Basin. The Syr Darya is one of Central Asia’s two large rivers, the other being the Amu Darya to the south, which runs along the Central Asia-Afghan border. Equally alarming for Kazakhstan, Nurzhigitov noted that in the mountains of upstream neighboring countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where the Syr Darya originates, officials are also reporting low levels in reservoirs. According to the Kazakh Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the reservoirs in those two countries are a combined 3.2 bcm lower than last year at this time. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Minister Taalaybek Ibrayev said in November 2025 that the water level in the massive Toktogul reservoir was less than 11 bcm, nearly 2 bcm lower than in November 2024, and only at about 60% of its 19.5 bcm capacity. Water from the reservoir is released into the Naryn River, which eventually merges with the Syr Darya in Uzbekistan, and flows on further into Kazakhstan. The Toktogul hydropower plant (HPP) depends on that water to supply some 40% of Kyrgyzstan’s domestically-produced electricity, and Ibrayev called on Kyrgyzstan’s citizens to conserve electricity and help the water in Toktogul accumulate before the 2026 agriculture season. Tajikistan’s state power company, Barqi Tojik, also called in November for the country’s citizens to save electricity as the water level at the Nurek HPP’s reservoir was low. The Nurek reservoir uses water from the Vakhsh River that does not flow into the Syr Darya, but the water shortage problems at Nurek are similar throughout Tajikistan, including tributaries that do flow into the Syr Darya. Conservation and New Wells In Kazakhstan, Nurzhigitov said inspections and repairs of irrigation canals were currently underway. He also mentioned that in December, Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev had ordered officials in the Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl provinces to hold meetings with farmers and herders to discuss water conservation. There were also talks with farmers about planting crops that required less water. Water limits would be announced in February, Nurzhigitov said, and in March the Agriculture Ministry would decide how much land to sow for this year’s crops based on expected water supplies during the spring-summer period. Nurzhigitov added that work was being done to increase the use of underground water, which he claimed could amount to some 15.7 bcm of extra water for Kazakhstan annually. Currently, Nurzhigitov said, only some 7-10% of this underground water is being used. Bleak Forecast Kazakhstan gathered a record harvest in 2025, some 27.1 million tons of grain, despite planting less wheat. Given the reduction in precipitation in Central Asia in...