Water Scarcity - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Security

Kyrgyzstan’s Water Compensation Push Tests Central Asian Unity

Central Asia’s water diplomacy is entering a contentious phase. Kyrgyzstan, where much of the region’s runoff is formed, is reviving calls for economic compensation from downstream users. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have rejected the idea, saying current agreements do not provide for payments for transboundary river water. The dispute comes as the region tries to maintain annual water-allocation deals while adapting agriculture to worsening scarcity and climate pressure. Water has long tied together the region’s upstream and downstream states. The 2021 and 2022 clashes on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border showed how disputes over land, border infrastructure, roads, security posts, and water access can escalate when local tensions are not contained. Yet political will alone does not guarantee agreements between countries. The Central Asian republics cooperate on water issues through two interstate bodies. One is the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, established in 1993 by all five Central Asian republics. Kyrgyzstan suspended its participation in IFAS in 2016, and now attends the fund’s meetings as an observer. The second body is the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination, whose meetings are held once a quarter. At its 93rd meeting in Bukhara in early April, the commission confirmed limits for water withdrawal from transboundary rivers, following decisions approved at the 92nd meeting in Dushanbe. For the Amu Darya, the 2026 water allocations set the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 at about 55.4 billion cubic meters. Of this, 15.9 billion cubic meters is allocated for the cold period, from October to April. Tajikistan has been allocated 9.8 billion cubic meters per year, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan each receive 22 billion. A significant part of the flow, 44 billion cubic meters, must pass through the adjusted section of the Kerki hydrological post, helping secure the lower reaches of the river. For the Syr Darya, the total water withdrawal limit for the non-growing season is 4.219 billion cubic meters. Kazakhstan will receive 460 million cubic meters through the Dustlik Canal, Kyrgyzstan 47 million, and Tajikistan 365 million, while the largest share will go to Uzbekistan, 3.347 billion cubic meters. The inherited framework is also facing pressure from outside the five-state system. Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal, which is being advanced outside the Soviet-era allocation structure, has added uncertainty on the Amu Darya. The Central Asian republics also cooperate in bilateral and trilateral formats. In January, Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan joint working groups met in Turkestan. The sides reaffirmed water cooperation, agreed to continue repairs on the Dostyk canal, and planned automated hydrological posts on the Syr Darya. In May, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan agreed on the operating regime of the Bahri-Tojik Reservoir for the summer of 2026. From June to August, the reservoir is to operate in a coordinated mode to supply irrigation water to farmers in the Maktaaral and Zhetysai districts of southern Kazakhstan. These agreements show that regional mechanisms still work, but experts continue to warn that climate pressure, data gaps, and uneven national interests could overwhelm existing formats. “Forecasting the...

Water Security

New Study Finds Sharp Decline in Amu Darya Flows

Central Asia’s water woes continue to grow worse. The water flow in the Amu Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers, is slowly but significantly diminishing in Tajikistan, where the river originates. A recently released report shows the Amu Darya’s water flow in the middle and lower reaches in Tajikistan has fallen over the course of recent decades by 54-77%. And the report lays the blame firmly on human activity, not climate change. Up In the Mountains of Tajikistan The study published on ScienceDirect looked at data collected over 90 years and concludes that “streamflow decreased by 54–77% in the middle and lower reaches” of the Amu Darya in Tajikistan. Interestingly, the report mentions that precipitation in the mountains of Tajikistan has actually increased between 6 and 13%, but the Amu Darya’s water level is falling because people are using more water. The expansion of agriculture is the reason, accounting for 92% of the water reduction in Tajikistan, but the recent construction of water reservoirs is also playing a role. Lower flows of water were noted on many of the tributaries in Tajikistan that feed into the Amu Darya, including the “Vakhsh, Kunduz, Kofirnihon, Surkhandarya, Zeravshan, and Kashkadarya (rivers),” which showed streamflow reductions of 4–34%. The report said that areas in the upper reaches of the Amu Darya should see increased water levels, but this is mainly due to climate change hastening the melting of snow and glaciers. Once the glaciers are gone, the water will rapidly decrease. Bad News Downstream Water problems upstream in Tajikistan translate to bigger problems downstream in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Both have already noticed a reduction in the amount of water in the Amu Darya, most visibly that the river has not reached the Aral Sea for about two decades now, contributing to the sea shrinking by some 90% since the 1960s. Every year the river recedes further south, forcing downstream communities suddenly without water to relocate. Climate change is now hastening this process in the arid, desert lands along the Uzbek-Turkmen border, but both countries are preparing for a bigger, impending shock. The Taliban started construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in 2022, with the project scheduled to be completed in 2028. While Central Asia was liberally taking water from the Amu Darya for agricultural use, Afghanistan was in no position to claim its share until now. The canal will draw water from the Amu Darya at an area across from Uzbekistan and open up new agricultural land in northern Afghanistan, where food has long been in short supply. The 280-kilometer canal is expected to take some 16-20% of the water left in the Amu Darya after it leaves Tajikistan. Upstream Tajikistan’s falling water levels, of course, mean the Qosh Tepa Canal will also be receiving less and less water. The Combination For most of the 2020s, large areas of Central Asia have been experiencing droughts, prompting the governments there to implement water conservation measures. But as they find more ways to save...

Water Supply

Tajikistan Announces Water Infrastructure Drive, Urges Central Asia Cooperation

Tajikistan plans to provide at least 90% of its population with access to a centralized water supply by 2040, in a long-term infrastructure project that would reduce disparities in water services for urban and rural residents. President Emomali Rahmon spoke about Tajikistan’s water goals as well as wider collaboration in Central Asia during a speech at a Dushanbe conference that has drawn delegates from around the world for discussions on water scarcity. Tajikistan and the United Nations are co-hosting the four-day event, which ends on Thursday and is a prelude to a U.N. water conference in the United Arab Emirates in December. In 2023, the World Bank noted that Tajikistan has significant water resources, but said its infrastructure needed large-scale investment and about 55% of its population had access to “safely managed” water supplies. Only 24% of the Central Asian country’s rural population had piped water services, reflecting the big difference between urban and rural areas, according to the World Bank. It also said Tajikistan allocated a far smaller percentage of its annual budget to water supply and sanitation than in other countries in Europe and Central Asia. In his speech on Tuesday, Rahmon said “we are committed to ensuring access” to centralized water supply — a system that can promote quality of service quality and lower costs — for 90% of people in Tajikistan by 2040. “Through this measure, we are determined to guarantee access to clean drinking water for every citizen,” said the president, who has led the country for more than three decades. Tajikistan has more than 10 million people. Rahmon also described “transboundary cooperation in the water sector” as a priority and said Tajikistan will push for more dialogue in Central Asia on addressing critical water challenges. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea is an effective platform for promoting the “sustainable development” of water resources, according to the president. Other leaders in Central Asia have made similar comments about the fund, a collective effort to address the ecological disaster that followed the collapse of what was once one of the largest lakes in the world. The Aral Sea started shrinking decades ago after Soviet engineers diverted rivers for irrigation. Regional cooperation on water management has gained momentum in recent years, though some officials and analysts are still concerned that water shortages could stir tension between upstream and downstream countries in Central Asia.

Water crisis

Tajikistan and UN to Host Water Crisis Conference in Dushanbe

Tajikistan and the United Nations will co-host the 4th High-Level International Conference on the International Decade for Action "Water for Sustainable Development " 2018-2028 next week, as Central Asia and other regions face increasing water scarcity because of climate change, higher consumption, and other factors. Delegates to the May 25-28 water conference in Dushanbe include government officials, scientists, executives from financial institutions and civil society members from around the world. The goal of creating “sustainable” water resources is especially critical in Central Asia, where there is growing concern that shortages could threaten public health and stir tension between upstream and downstream countries. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, for example, are in mountainous regions and have relatively significant water resources that they share with neighboring countries. However, the resources are under strain. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, in turn, rely on the cross-border water supply that flows downstream. Central Asian governments have begun joint projects on water infrastructure to avoid the kind of tensions that emerged in the past. The Dushanbe conference is another step in that process, even though the event is global in perspective. Tajik diplomats have held briefings in Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia and other countries to promote the conference, describing Tajikistan as a leader in “water diplomacy” as the world faces a water crisis that is increasingly evident in floods, droughts, pollution and melting glaciers. Dushanbe has already hosted several international conferences on water. Saidjon Shafizoda, spokesman for Tajikistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a briefing in the Tajik capital on Wednesday that the conference can help accelerate innovation and mobilize funding for the “sustainable and inclusive” management of water, the state Khovar news agency reported. Organizers say more than 2,500 people are expected to participate.

Water Scarcity

Opinion: As Water Runs Short, Uzbekistan Faces New Migration Pressure

In the 21st century, Uzbekistan is no longer just confronting an ecological crisis - it is on the verge of socio-political transformations driven by water. As agricultural lands are being degraded and river flows are decreasing, the country is now facing what experts describe as a “slow-onset disaster”: internal climate migration. The roots of this crisis go back to the tragedy of the Aral Sea, once the world’s fourth-largest lake, which has shrunk to roughly 10% of its original area since the 1960s largely due to Soviet-era irrigation projects. The human toll has been enormous: not only is agriculture in decline, but the lives of the people living in the Aral Sea region have been profoundly altered. Each year, storms lift an estimated 15 million to 75 million tons of sand, dust, and salt from the dried Aral seabed, spreading it across Uzbekistan and the wider region. Now, another challenge is looming - the water supply. In 2018, 79,942 internally displaced people were reported in Uzbekistan. The dwindling water supply and the threat to agro-ecosystems are creating a new generation of climate migrants. The number of climate-related displacements is expected to reach 200,000 in the coming years. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, Uzbekistan’s hydrological lifelines, are under growing strain from climate change, inefficient irrigation, and transboundary water-distribution pressures. Experts warn that the country's water deficit could reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030, and 15 billion cubic meters by 2050. The World Bank predicts that Uzbekistan's economy could shrink by 10% by 2050 if no meaningful action is taken to adapt to climate change. Now, another new factor threatens to accelerate this trend. The Taliban government in Afghanistan is building the Qosh Tepa Canal, a 285-kilometer irrigation project that will divert water from the Amu Darya River. According to Rieks Bosch, an international expert on natural resources and economics, the canal will divert 20% of the Amu Darya's water, which will exacerbate water shortages in some parts of Uzbekistan and negatively affect agriculture. "In any case, Uzbekistan will definitely suffer," he said. Analyses show that up to 250,000 people could lose their jobs in agriculture as a result of water shortages. The most vulnerable regions - Bukhara, Khorezm, Karakalpakstan, Surkhandarya, and Kashkadarya - are located mainly in rural areas and depend on agriculture and livestock. With almost half of Uzbekistan’s population living outside urban centers, the loss of agricultural viability is not just an economic problem; it is the disruption of a way of life. “Water scarcity, air pollution, biodiversity loss, and a sharp decline in agricultural productivity are constantly increasing,” President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said at COP 28, acknowledging that these problems are “reaching their “critical peak.” Yet policy responses are still lagging behind the pace of environmental change. Uzbekistan’s climate migration problem cannot be solved by managing water resources alone. This requires a new strategic framework – a “Water-Migration-Security” strategy that combines regional cooperation, innovative water-saving technologies in agriculture, and proactive adaptation measures for the communities most at...

Regional Ecological Summit

Central Asia Seeks Solutions to Water Scarcity Amid Climate Risks

Central Asian countries must accelerate the transition from discussing climate goals to implementing them in practice, as water scarcity intensifies and the impacts of climate change deepen, participants at a regional conference said on Friday. A key event on the final day of the Regional Ecological Summit (RES 2026) in Astana was the Central Asian Climate Change Conference (CACCC), where government officials, international organizations, and experts discussed risks to the region’s water, energy, and food security. Participants noted that declining water availability requires a fundamental shift in resource management approaches. [caption id="attachment_47800" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: TCA[/caption] “In conditions of reduced water availability, the priority is no longer increasing water intake but improving efficiency in water use. Today, government support for water-saving technologies covers up to 80% of costs. This represents a fundamental shift toward rational and economically sound water management,” said Kazakhstan’s Vice Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Talgat Momyshev. According to him, by 2030, the use of such technologies is expected to expand to more than 1.3 million hectares, potentially reducing agricultural water consumption by approximately 30%. “This is not just about saving resources, but about forming a new management model where data, forecasting, and cross-sectoral coordination play a central role,” he added. Kazakhstan is also developing a national water information system that will integrate data on surface and groundwater resources. More than 6,000 canals are expected to be digitized by the end of the year, enabling a shift toward predictive water management. Participants placed particular emphasis on the transboundary nature of water resources in the region. [caption id="attachment_47801" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: TCA[/caption] “The development of joint monitoring systems and data exchange, the creation of resilient infrastructure, and the coordination of water and energy policies are becoming increasingly important. We believe that data, trust, and joint planning must form the foundation of effective climate adaptation,” Momyshev said. International partners confirmed their readiness to expand support for the region. “Our current efforts in the water sector are reflected in the Swiss Cooperation Programme for Central Asia for 2026-2029," said Tobias Werder, a representative of the Swiss government. "More than half of its $200 million budget is allocated to water-related projects. Since 2017, we have also actively promoted the Blue Peace Central Asia initiative, which helps strengthen regional coordination and move from dialogue to practical solutions.” Kazakhstan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Yerlan Nyssanbayev, noted that the climate agenda in the region extends far beyond environmental issues. “For Central Asia, climate change is no longer a distant projection. It is a factor directly affecting water, energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and public health. Under these conditions, the climate agenda becomes a matter of economic resilience, regional security, and the quality of public governance,” he said. [caption id="attachment_47799" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: TCA[/caption] According to Nyssanbayev, the region must accelerate the implementation of concrete projects. “It is now clear that we must focus on improving project preparation, expanding access to climate finance, and strengthening coordination. Without this, achieving our stated goals will be...