Water Shortages - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Shortages

Kazakhstan Warns of Severe Water Shortages as Syr Darya Levels Drop

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, gave a sober warning to the country on January 13 that this year there could be significantly less water for agriculture in the southern parts of the country. Nurzhigitov said that as of January 12, there was 1.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) less water in the reservoirs of southern Kazakhstan than on that date in 2025. The Importance of the Syr-Darya These areas are part of the Syr Darya Basin. The Syr Darya is one of Central Asia’s two large rivers, the other being the Amu Darya to the south, which runs along the Central Asia-Afghan border. Equally alarming for Kazakhstan, Nurzhigitov noted that in the mountains of upstream neighboring countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where the Syr Darya originates, officials are also reporting low levels in reservoirs. According to the Kazakh Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the reservoirs in those two countries are a combined 3.2 bcm lower than last year at this time. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Minister Taalaybek Ibrayev said in November 2025 that the water level in the massive Toktogul reservoir was less than 11 bcm, nearly 2 bcm lower than in November 2024, and only at about 60% of its 19.5 bcm capacity. Water from the reservoir is released into the Naryn River, which eventually merges with the Syr Darya in Uzbekistan, and flows on further into Kazakhstan. The Toktogul hydropower plant (HPP) depends on that water to supply some 40% of Kyrgyzstan’s domestically-produced electricity, and Ibrayev called on Kyrgyzstan’s citizens to conserve electricity and help the water in Toktogul accumulate before the 2026 agriculture season. Tajikistan’s state power company, Barqi Tojik, also called in November for the country’s citizens to save electricity as the water level at the Nurek HPP’s reservoir was low. The Nurek reservoir uses water from the Vakhsh River that does not flow into the Syr Darya, but the water shortage problems at Nurek are similar throughout Tajikistan, including tributaries that do flow into the Syr Darya. Conservation and New Wells In Kazakhstan, Nurzhigitov said inspections and repairs of irrigation canals were currently underway. He also mentioned that in December, Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev had ordered officials in the Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl provinces to hold meetings with farmers and herders to discuss water conservation. There were also talks with farmers about planting crops that required less water. Water limits would be announced in February, Nurzhigitov said, and in March the Agriculture Ministry would decide how much land to sow for this year’s crops based on expected water supplies during the spring-summer period. Nurzhigitov added that work was being done to increase the use of underground water, which he claimed could amount to some 15.7 bcm of extra water for Kazakhstan annually. Currently, Nurzhigitov said, only some 7-10% of this underground water is being used. Bleak Forecast Kazakhstan gathered a record harvest in 2025, some 27.1 million tons of grain, despite planting less wheat. Given the reduction in precipitation in Central Asia in...

Hydropower

Water Shortages Cut Hydropower Output in Uzbekistan

Electricity generation at Uzbekistan’s hydropower plants has declined significantly due to water shortages, Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov told lawmakers during a recent session of the Legislative Chamber of the country's parliament, the Oliy Majlis, according to reports in Uzbek media. Mirzamahmudov said water inflows to major hydropower facilities had fallen by 35%, directly impacting electricity production compared with last year. He was responding to a question from deputy Saydullo Azimov, who inquired about the ongoing decline in hydropower output. “The main reason for the drop in electricity generation at large hydropower plants compared to last year is the reduced water inflow,” Mirzamahmudov said. He added that while Uzbekistan has commissioned a number of small and micro hydropower stations, with capacities ranging from one to five megawatts, these facilities collectively produced only about 140 million kilowatt hours of electricity. This output, he noted, remains limited and cannot compensate for the shortfall at major plants. Mirzamahmudov reaffirmed the government's commitment to further developing the hydropower sector but acknowledged its heavy reliance on water availability. To reduce dependence on natural gas and enhance energy security, Uzbekistan is increasingly investing in alternative energy sources. “We are paying special attention to solar and wind power, as well as energy storage systems,” he said, noting that these options offer more consistent short-term performance. He also revealed plans to construct pumped-storage power plants, which store excess electricity for use during peak demand periods. However, he pointed out that building a large hydropower facility typically takes six to ten years, making green energy projects the most viable option for addressing immediate energy needs. In a related development, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan agreed in July to a new phase of electricity trade. Under the deal, power from Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant will be exported to Uzbekistan at an initial rate of 3.4¢ per kilowatt hour. The agreement, which has a 20-year term with automatic extensions, builds on electricity exports that Tajikistan has supplied to Uzbekistan each summer since 2018.

Irrigation

South Kazakhstan Braces for Irrigation Water Shortages in 2026

On December 4–5, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev, accompanied by Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov and Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov, visited the southern regions of Turkistan, Kyzylorda, and Zhambyl. The delegation met with local farmers to address the growing risks posed by declining transboundary water inflows and to discuss measures to ensure efficient water use during the 2026 irrigation season. Agriculture in these arid regions depends heavily on water from the Syr Darya River, which originates in Kyrgyzstan. According to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector consumed 11.01 billion cubic meters of water during the 2025 irrigation season, with 98% used in the south. The Zhambyl region irrigated 79,000 hectares using 1 billion m³ of water and remains largely reliant on upstream supplies from Kyrgyzstan. This past season, Kyrgyzstan committed to providing more than 600 million m³ of water to Kazakhstan via the transboundary Chu and Talas rivers. The Kyzylorda and Turkistan regions were the largest consumers of irrigation water, drawing 3.5 billion m³ and 3.4 billion m³, respectively, to irrigate 125,000 and 400,000 hectares. Officials presented water inflow forecasts for 2026 and outlined measures to improve efficiency amid declining water availability. The Syr Darya basin continues to experience low-flow conditions, with reduced inflows into the Naryn-Syr Darya system threatening irrigation supplies for the upcoming growing season. Farmers were urged to adopt water-saving technologies, limit the cultivation of water-intensive crops, diversify planting, and transition to drought-resistant varieties. Bozumbayev noted that during the recent session of the Interstate Water Coordination Commission in Ashgabat, participating countries projected a further decline in water inflows for 2026. He warned that the Toktogul Reservoir in Kyrgyzstan, located on the Naryn River, a key tributary of the Syr Darya, may reach record-low levels, putting irrigation supplies at serious risk. “Given the continued decline in available water resources, there is a real risk of shortages during the next growing season. This is a natural challenge faced by all Central Asian countries. To minimize the impact, we must accelerate crop diversification and the introduction of water-saving irrigation technologies. The state has created all the necessary conditions for this. This is not simply about conserving water; the country’s water and food security depend on it,” Bozumbayev said. To support adoption of efficient irrigation systems such as drip and sprinkler technologies, the government has increased reimbursement for farmers' costs from 50% to 80%, on drilling wells and installing irrigation equipment. A differentiated irrigation tariff has also been introduced: for farmers using water-saving technologies, the subsidy on irrigation water has been raised from 60% to 85%. These measures have helped expand the area under modern irrigation systems from 312,200 hectares in 2023 to 580,000 hectares in 2025, representing 30% of all irrigated farmland. The government aims to increase this figure to 1.3 million hectares, or 70% of total irrigated land, by 2030. In Kyzylorda, the country’s main rice-producing region, the Ministry of Agriculture has announced that rice cultivation in 2026 must not...

Rivers

Central Asia Faces Growing Water Risks as Qosh Tepa Canal Nears Completion

Kazakh media, Inbusiness.kz, reports that discussions within the Russian Academy of Sciences have revived a decadesold idea to redirect Siberian rivers toward Central Asia. Researchers have proposed that Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education include a study of the project in its state research plan, arguing that the region is entering a critical phase of water scarcity. This renewed debate comes as Afghanistan advances construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal, a massive irrigation project in the country’s north. The first 108 kilometer section began operating in 2023, and work on the second phase is nearing completion. Once fully operational, the 285 kilometer canal is expected to divert more than 15% of the Amu Darya river’s flow to irrigate around 550,000 hectares of farmland in Afghanistan’s drought-prone regions. Construction began in March 2022 and its impact is already being felt across Central Asia. Experts warn the canal could reduce Uzbekistan’s water supply by around 15% and Turkmenistan’s by up to 80%, which may lead to lower crop yields, job losses, rising poverty and even potential migration or tensions. Scholars in Kazakhstan note rising alarm. Ravshan Nazarov, an associate professor based in Tashkent, said that failure to address water shortages could trigger mass population movements. He argued that redirecting Siberian rivers, though technically complex and costly, may become unavoidable. He warned that if Russia does not share its water resources, it might eventually face “an influx of 100 million refugees.” Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show that Turkmenistan is the region’s largest water consumer, using 53 cubic kilometres annually despite a population of just about 7 million. Experts attribute this to ageing infrastructure, high evaporation losses and a lack of concrete-lined canals. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan has faced water shortages since 2020.

Agriculture

In Kyrgyzstan, Nearly 50,000 Hectares of Arable Land Left Fallow Due to Water Shortages

In 2025, approximately 50,000 hectares of agricultural land in Kyrgyzstan were left uncultivated, according to the National Statistical Committee. This figure represents a significant portion of the country's total arable land area, which stands at 1.292 million hectares. Experts attribute the sharp decline primarily to a lack of moisture during the spring growing season. More than half of the affected land, over 25,000 hectares, suffered from irrigation failures due to the deteriorating state of the country’s water infrastructure. An additional 5,000 hectares lie in inaccessible or rocky terrain, while about 8,000 hectares were previously reassigned for industrial or urban development. The committee also noted a year-on-year increase of 1,100 hectares in the area of fallow land. In the Talas region alone, 25% more land could have been cultivated under better conditions. Across Kyrgyzstan’s regions, the share of idle arable land currently ranges between 10% and 20%. The Ministry of Economy and Commerce reported that the water shortage not only reduced the amount of cultivated land but also impacted crop yields. Many crops ripened several weeks earlier than usual, accelerating the harvest period. As a result, the growth rate of gross agricultural output slowed by more than 2% in the first half of 2025. However, not all sectors were negatively affected. The gross harvest of melons and gourds rose by nearly 13%, vegetable production increased by 12%, and potato yields were up 10% compared to the previous year.

Cotton

Kazakhstan’s Cotton Sector Continues to Shrink

Kazakhstan’s cotton industry is in protracted decline, with key indicators – acreage, harvest volume, and profitability – showing sustained deterioration. Analysts at Energyprom.kz report that small farms, which dominate the sector, are increasingly abandoning cotton in favor of less expensive crops. A Smallholder Sector in Crisis According to the National Statistics Bureau, raw cotton production totaled 61.2 billion KZT ($117.4 million) in 2023, down 8% in real terms from the previous year. This marked the second consecutive year of decline in the physical volume index (PVI), reflecting waning interest in cotton cultivation. The sector comprises around 25,000 agricultural enterprises and employs approximately 70,000 people. Small farms produce 91% of total output but are experiencing the steepest decline: their PVI fell to 88.6% in 2023. In contrast, large enterprises, which account for a minor share of production, saw a 50.7% increase in output. Cotton is grown exclusively in the Turkestan region, where the cultivated area has shrunk from 223,700 hectares in 2003 to just 106,400 hectares in 2023. The gross harvest last year was 301,700 tons, 35.4% less than two decades ago. Modern agricultural technologies have helped maintain relatively stable yields despite shrinking acreage. Water Shortages Undermine the Industry The Ministry of Agriculture identifies severe irrigation water shortages as the primary obstacle to cotton production. While some losses have been mitigated through drip irrigation systems, such technologies are affordable only to large or investor-backed farms. For most smallholders, cotton cultivation has become too costly, prompting a shift to alternative crops. The problem is systemic. In a parliamentary inquiry, Senator Murat Kadyrbek highlighted inadequate financing for agronomic measures and low purchase prices, which leave many farmers barely covering operating costs. Producers are seeking loan deferrals until they can secure income from harvests. Eighty-five percent of Kazakhstan’s cotton is exported as raw material, with only 15% processed domestically. Even this limited share struggles to find buyers. In 2023, domestic processing plants operated at just 19.5% of their design capacity, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. Despite the launch of new facilities, including some with foreign investment, processing remains the industry's weakest link. Rising Costs, Competitive Pressures High processing costs pose a major challenge. Processing cotton in Kazakhstan costs 150,000-170,000 KZT (approximately $300) per tonne, triple the cost in neighboring Uzbekistan and China. Compounding the issue is poor fiber quality. While the global market demands fiber lengths of 35-60 cm, Kazakh cotton typically falls in the 20-25 cm range. “To improve product quality and competitiveness, a dedicated state program for cotton development is urgently needed,” members of parliament urged. They advocate for collaborative action from both government agencies and producers to revitalize the sector.