Water Shortages - The Times Of Central Asia

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Access to Clean Water

Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...

Water Management

Uzbekistan Allocates $49 Million to Prevent Water Shortages and Upgrade Canals

Uzbekistan will allocate 600 billion UZS (about $49 million) this year to improve water management and reduce the risk of shortages, according to a presidential decision issued on March 5. The funding will support additional measures aimed at using water resources more efficiently and preparing for potential water scarcity during the irrigation season. Under the plan, most of the funds will be directed toward modernizing irrigation infrastructure. The government intends to reconstruct and concrete 389 kilometers of irrigation canals that currently experience high levels of water loss. Officials say these improvements could help save an average of 206 million cubic meters of water and 26 million kilowatt-hours of electricity each year. The work is also expected to improve water supply for about 158,400 hectares of irrigated farmland across the country. According to the decision, 480 billion UZS (about $39.5 million) will be allocated specifically for concreting canals and irrigation networks, while the remaining 120 billion UZS (about $9.8 million) will fund other measures aimed at preventing water shortages and improving water management. The initiative will be implemented by the Ministry of Water Resources in cooperation with regional authorities, including the government of the Republic of Karakalpakstan and provincial administrations. The ministry, together with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, has been instructed to prepare a detailed list of priority canal reconstruction projects within one week and submit it to the Cabinet of Ministers for approval. Officials said the irrigation repairs will follow a “one canal - one system” principle, meaning priority will be given to irrigation networks connected to canals that have already been partially modernized or are currently undergoing reconstruction. The funds will be allocated from additional state budget revenues generated during the first quarter of 2026. Water management has become an increasing priority for Uzbekistan as the country seeks to modernize aging infrastructure and address growing pressure on water resources in agriculture. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the government is also working on a long-term strategy to expand access to clean drinking water nationwide, with a goal of providing 85% of the population with reliable drinking water services by 2030, according to proposals developed by the Agency for Strategic Reforms.

Water resources

Kyrgyz MP Questions Why Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan Don’t Pay for Irrigation Water

A long-standing debate over Kyrgyzstan’s water resources resurfaced this week after a member of parliament questioned why Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan do not compensate Kyrgyzstan for irrigation water sourced from its reservoirs, according to a report by Kaktus Media. Speaking at a February 9 meeting of the parliamentary committee on agrarian policy, water resources, ecology, and subsoil use, MP Umbetaly Kydyraliev raised concerns about growing water shortages caused by climate change and the lack of economic return from water exports to neighboring countries. “About 80% of the water in our reservoirs goes to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,” said Kydyraliev. “How are we resolving this issue with them?” Regional Cooperation vs. Compensation In response, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry Bakyt Torobaev explained that while Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are not making direct payments for water, they are contributing to major regional infrastructure projects, most notably, the Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower plant. Torobaev emphasized that cooperation is based on mutual benefit rather than transactional agreements. He noted that both countries have expressed strong interest in ensuring reliable access to water and have supported the hydropower initiative accordingly. Kambar-Ata-1: Strategic Investment Kambar-Ata-1, originally launched during the Soviet era and later shelved, is poised to become one of Central Asia’s largest hydropower plants. Once completed, it is expected to surpass the output of the Toktogul hydropower station, currently Kyrgyzstan’s main source of electricity. The plant's projected cost is around $3.6 billion. Who Should Pay for Upkeep? Kydyraliev also cited other key reservoirs, including Kempir-Abad (jointly managed with Uzbekistan), Kirov, and Orto-Tokoy, which remain under Kyrgyzstan’s jurisdiction. Annual intergovernmental commissions determine how much water is released from these facilities, yet no financial compensation is received. “Does this mean Kyrgyzstan gains no economic benefit from maintaining these hydropower facilities?” he asked. “We have to repair them, stabilize water levels, and inspect dams. These are real costs. Other countries pay for water under international law.” Official Position: No Demands for Payment Deputy Energy Minister Nasipbek Kerimov noted that the issue is being jointly studied by energy and water specialists. Torobaev added that details of these discussions are confidential but confirmed that President Sadyr Japarov has instructed officials not to demand payments from neighboring states for infrastructure maintenance. Instead, Kyrgyzstan will shoulder those costs itself, with any external assistance remaining voluntary.

Water Shortages

Kazakhstan Warns of Severe Water Shortages as Syr Darya Levels Drop

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, gave a sober warning to the country on January 13 that this year there could be significantly less water for agriculture in the southern parts of the country. Nurzhigitov said that as of January 12, there was 1.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) less water in the reservoirs of southern Kazakhstan than on that date in 2025. The Importance of the Syr-Darya These areas are part of the Syr Darya Basin. The Syr Darya is one of Central Asia’s two large rivers, the other being the Amu Darya to the south, which runs along the Central Asia-Afghan border. Equally alarming for Kazakhstan, Nurzhigitov noted that in the mountains of upstream neighboring countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where the Syr Darya originates, officials are also reporting low levels in reservoirs. According to the Kazakh Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the reservoirs in those two countries are a combined 3.2 bcm lower than last year at this time. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Minister Taalaybek Ibrayev said in November 2025 that the water level in the massive Toktogul reservoir was less than 11 bcm, nearly 2 bcm lower than in November 2024, and only at about 60% of its 19.5 bcm capacity. Water from the reservoir is released into the Naryn River, which eventually merges with the Syr Darya in Uzbekistan, and flows on further into Kazakhstan. The Toktogul hydropower plant (HPP) depends on that water to supply some 40% of Kyrgyzstan’s domestically-produced electricity, and Ibrayev called on Kyrgyzstan’s citizens to conserve electricity and help the water in Toktogul accumulate before the 2026 agriculture season. Tajikistan’s state power company, Barqi Tojik, also called in November for the country’s citizens to save electricity as the water level at the Nurek HPP’s reservoir was low. The Nurek reservoir uses water from the Vakhsh River that does not flow into the Syr Darya, but the water shortage problems at Nurek are similar throughout Tajikistan, including tributaries that do flow into the Syr Darya. Conservation and New Wells In Kazakhstan, Nurzhigitov said inspections and repairs of irrigation canals were currently underway. He also mentioned that in December, Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev had ordered officials in the Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl provinces to hold meetings with farmers and herders to discuss water conservation. There were also talks with farmers about planting crops that required less water. Water limits would be announced in February, Nurzhigitov said, and in March the Agriculture Ministry would decide how much land to sow for this year’s crops based on expected water supplies during the spring-summer period. Nurzhigitov added that work was being done to increase the use of underground water, which he claimed could amount to some 15.7 bcm of extra water for Kazakhstan annually. Currently, Nurzhigitov said, only some 7-10% of this underground water is being used. Bleak Forecast Kazakhstan gathered a record harvest in 2025, some 27.1 million tons of grain, despite planting less wheat. Given the reduction in precipitation in Central Asia in...

Hydropower

Water Shortages Cut Hydropower Output in Uzbekistan

Electricity generation at Uzbekistan’s hydropower plants has declined significantly due to water shortages, Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov told lawmakers during a recent session of the Legislative Chamber of the country's parliament, the Oliy Majlis, according to reports in Uzbek media. Mirzamahmudov said water inflows to major hydropower facilities had fallen by 35%, directly impacting electricity production compared with last year. He was responding to a question from deputy Saydullo Azimov, who inquired about the ongoing decline in hydropower output. “The main reason for the drop in electricity generation at large hydropower plants compared to last year is the reduced water inflow,” Mirzamahmudov said. He added that while Uzbekistan has commissioned a number of small and micro hydropower stations, with capacities ranging from one to five megawatts, these facilities collectively produced only about 140 million kilowatt hours of electricity. This output, he noted, remains limited and cannot compensate for the shortfall at major plants. Mirzamahmudov reaffirmed the government's commitment to further developing the hydropower sector but acknowledged its heavy reliance on water availability. To reduce dependence on natural gas and enhance energy security, Uzbekistan is increasingly investing in alternative energy sources. “We are paying special attention to solar and wind power, as well as energy storage systems,” he said, noting that these options offer more consistent short-term performance. He also revealed plans to construct pumped-storage power plants, which store excess electricity for use during peak demand periods. However, he pointed out that building a large hydropower facility typically takes six to ten years, making green energy projects the most viable option for addressing immediate energy needs. In a related development, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan agreed in July to a new phase of electricity trade. Under the deal, power from Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant will be exported to Uzbekistan at an initial rate of 3.4¢ per kilowatt hour. The agreement, which has a 20-year term with automatic extensions, builds on electricity exports that Tajikistan has supplied to Uzbekistan each summer since 2018.

Irrigation

South Kazakhstan Braces for Irrigation Water Shortages in 2026

On December 4–5, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev, accompanied by Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov and Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov, visited the southern regions of Turkistan, Kyzylorda, and Zhambyl. The delegation met with local farmers to address the growing risks posed by declining transboundary water inflows and to discuss measures to ensure efficient water use during the 2026 irrigation season. Agriculture in these arid regions depends heavily on water from the Syr Darya River, which originates in Kyrgyzstan. According to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector consumed 11.01 billion cubic meters of water during the 2025 irrigation season, with 98% used in the south. The Zhambyl region irrigated 79,000 hectares using 1 billion m³ of water and remains largely reliant on upstream supplies from Kyrgyzstan. This past season, Kyrgyzstan committed to providing more than 600 million m³ of water to Kazakhstan via the transboundary Chu and Talas rivers. The Kyzylorda and Turkistan regions were the largest consumers of irrigation water, drawing 3.5 billion m³ and 3.4 billion m³, respectively, to irrigate 125,000 and 400,000 hectares. Officials presented water inflow forecasts for 2026 and outlined measures to improve efficiency amid declining water availability. The Syr Darya basin continues to experience low-flow conditions, with reduced inflows into the Naryn-Syr Darya system threatening irrigation supplies for the upcoming growing season. Farmers were urged to adopt water-saving technologies, limit the cultivation of water-intensive crops, diversify planting, and transition to drought-resistant varieties. Bozumbayev noted that during the recent session of the Interstate Water Coordination Commission in Ashgabat, participating countries projected a further decline in water inflows for 2026. He warned that the Toktogul Reservoir in Kyrgyzstan, located on the Naryn River, a key tributary of the Syr Darya, may reach record-low levels, putting irrigation supplies at serious risk. “Given the continued decline in available water resources, there is a real risk of shortages during the next growing season. This is a natural challenge faced by all Central Asian countries. To minimize the impact, we must accelerate crop diversification and the introduction of water-saving irrigation technologies. The state has created all the necessary conditions for this. This is not simply about conserving water; the country’s water and food security depend on it,” Bozumbayev said. To support adoption of efficient irrigation systems such as drip and sprinkler technologies, the government has increased reimbursement for farmers' costs from 50% to 80%, on drilling wells and installing irrigation equipment. A differentiated irrigation tariff has also been introduced: for farmers using water-saving technologies, the subsidy on irrigation water has been raised from 60% to 85%. These measures have helped expand the area under modern irrigation systems from 312,200 hectares in 2023 to 580,000 hectares in 2025, representing 30% of all irrigated farmland. The government aims to increase this figure to 1.3 million hectares, or 70% of total irrigated land, by 2030. In Kyzylorda, the country’s main rice-producing region, the Ministry of Agriculture has announced that rice cultivation in 2026 must not...