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S&P Global Ratings Predicts 5.6% Annual Growth for Uzbekistan Through 2027

S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Uzbekistan’s long-term sovereign credit rating at BB, forecasting strong economic growth averaging 5.6% annually from 2024 to 2027. This growth will be driven by public investment and private consumption. While rising public and external debt presents some risks, S&P expects fiscal and current account deficits to narrow after peaking in 2023. Economic Projections Uzbekistan’s gross general debt is projected to reach 39% of GDP in 2024, a level considered moderate by global standards. Most of this debt originates from official creditors under concessional terms. The agency’s stable outlook reflects robust growth prospects, balanced against challenges posed by debt accumulation. The country’s economy expanded by 6.6% in the first nine months of 2024, fueled by sectors such as construction, trade, and communications. Investments continue to play a pivotal role, with Uzbekistan maintaining one of the world’s highest investment-to-GDP ratios at 34%. Key investment areas under the “Uzbekistan - 2030” strategy include energy, transport, agriculture, and tourism. Diversification and Energy Goals As part of efforts to diversify energy sources, Uzbekistan is targeting 40% green energy by 2030. Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power has pledged $7.5 billion in investments for electricity projects. The government is also expanding exports of critical resources such as copper, gold, silver, and uranium to boost revenue streams. Opportunities and Risks Despite challenges such as low GDP per capita and reliance on remittances, Uzbekistan benefits from a young workforce and rising foreign investment. However, risks remain, including potential sanctions on companies linked to Russia and difficulties in creating sufficient jobs. In 2024, remittance inflows - primarily from Russia, along with Germany and South Korea - increased by 35%, providing a significant economic boost. Trade with Russia also grew by 26%, and Uzbekistan signed a two-year gas import contract with Gazprom. Meanwhile, the government is taking steps to mitigate the risks of secondary sanctions stemming from its trade ties with Russia. Broader Context These developments align with Uzbekistan’s long-term economic strategies while highlighting both opportunities and vulnerabilities. S&P’s latest forecasts reaffirm the country’s growth trajectory, supported by strategic investments and economic reforms, yet underscore the importance of managing debt and external risks.

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Turkmenistan and Turkey Aim to Double Trade Turnover

Turkmenistan and Turkey have announced plans to double their annual trade turnover from $2.5 billion to $5 billion in the coming years. Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat shared the goal during an exhibition in Ashgabat, where more than 70 Turkish companies were represented. He emphasized that the current trade volume is insufficient and that achieving this milestone would significantly strengthen economic ties between the two nations. Roadmap for Economic Cooperation A key step toward this goal will be the 8th meeting of the intergovernmental commission, scheduled for February or March next year in Ankara. According to Bolat, the meeting will approve a new roadmap for trade and economic cooperation. “We will develop our cooperation in various fields, following the vision of the leaders of our brotherly countries,” Bolat stated, highlighting the deep cultural and historical ties between Turkey and Turkmenistan. Priority Sectors The partnership will focus on several priority areas: • Energy: Discussions are underway to facilitate the transportation of Turkmen natural gas to Europe, which could lead to strategically important agreements. • Chemical Industry: Both countries aim to collaborate on projects that enhance the sector's development. • Trade Facilitation: Improvements in customs procedures and visa regime simplifications are expected to ease business interactions for citizens of both nations. Bolat also underscored the importance of Turkish construction projects in Turkmenistan, as well as the role of the Middle Corridor in boosting trade opportunities by improving goods transportation. Strengthening Economic Ties Turkey and Turkmenistan already maintain robust economic relations, with Turkey ranking as one of Turkmenistan’s leading trade partners. More than 600 Turkish companies operate in sectors such as trade, investment, construction, energy, transportation, communications, textiles, and processing industries. This strategic collaboration reflects shared cultural and historical roots, with both countries committed to furthering economic cooperation across various fields. The ambitious $5 billion trade goal demonstrates a mutual effort to deepen ties and expand opportunities in the region.

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Kazakhstan’s Evolving IT Sector and the Rise of AI

Kazakhstan is witnessing a surge in IT talent as specialists from Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus flock to the country. While this has intensified competition for local professionals, many Kazakh IT specialists are also seeking opportunities abroad. To better understand the current landscape, The Times of Central Asia spoke with Mazhit Berniyazov, founder of the travel startup Mego.tours, about the development of Kazakhstan’s IT industry. TCA: How long have you been working in IT, and how in-demand is this sector in Kazakhstan? Mazhit Berniyazov: My 16 years of experience in IT and related fields has given me a front-row seat to the sector's rapid development and transformation. I’ve worked in both dynamic startups and large companies, experiencing the benefits and challenges of each. Globally, IT is one of the most sought-after sectors, and its popularity continues to grow. In Kazakhstan, the demand for IT professionals has surged in recent years, driven by several factors. First, IT offers a wide range of career paths, making it appealing to people with diverse skills and interests—whether it’s software development, web design, cybersecurity, or data analytics. Second, training opportunities have expanded significantly, with numerous online courses, schools, and academies offering accessible and high-quality education, often bypassing the need for traditional higher education. Third, the IT industry’s dynamic and ever-evolving nature ensures constant demand for skilled professionals, adding to its appeal. The COVID-19 pandemic has also transformed the IT market. The rise of hybrid work models—combining remote and in-office work—has given professionals greater flexibility and freedom. This shift has broadened hiring pools, enabling Kazakh companies to recruit international talent, which, in turn, has heightened competition in the local labor market. TCA: What steps are needed to further develop Kazakhstan’s IT industry? Mazhit Berniyazov: Over the past two years, Kazakhstan has seen a significant influx of IT professionals from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. While many bring high levels of expertise, this migration has intensified competition for local specialists. Additionally, some migrant professionals accept lower salaries due to their circumstances, creating further challenges for Kazakh IT workers. This influx has a dual impact: it raises the overall level of the IT industry in Kazakhstan while also pushing local specialists to enhance their skills and adapt to the evolving landscape. Government support is crucial for the growth of the IT sector, yet Kazakhstan still lacks a clear strategy for leveraging its potential, especially in areas like artificial intelligence (AI). While initiatives exist to support IT development, there is no comprehensive roadmap for AI integration or sufficiently effective programs to attract investment and nurture startups in this field. Globally, AI is advancing rapidly, transforming industries such as healthcare, finance, logistics, and marketing. However, Kazakhstan is still in the early stages of crafting a national AI strategy. Challenges include limited public investment, a shortage of qualified specialists, and the absence of a robust regulatory framework. To compete internationally, Kazakhstan must implement a targeted program for AI development, including: • Encouraging scientific research and innovation • Supporting education and training initiatives •...

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EU-Funded Electronic Queue Management System Aims to End Border Delays in Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan’s State Customs Service has launched a pilot Electronic Queue Management System (eQMS) at the Kyzyl-Kiya road border crossing with Uzbekistan. The system is designed to simplify and expedite border-crossing procedures for truck drivers. Using the eQMS website, drivers can reserve time slots and access a designated waiting zone at their scheduled time, according to the Delegation of the European Union to the Kyrgyz Republic. European Union Support Funded by the European Union, the eQMS is part of Kyrgyzstan’s broader effort to enhance economic and regional trade integration. The initiative is implemented with technical support from the International Trade Centre (ITC), a United Nations agency, under the Ready4Trade Central Asia: Fostering Prosperity Through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor project. Marilyn Josefson, Ambassador of the European Union to the Kyrgyz Republic, emphasized the significance of the initiative: “The European Union is proud to support Kyrgyzstan's efforts to modernize its border management through the eQMS pilot initiative. Improving soft connectivity and facilitation of trade and border procedures is a crucial step in advancing the operational efficiency of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor and supporting the internationalization of Central Asian businesses, ultimately fostering sustainable economic development and stronger regional integration,” said Josefson. Advancing Border Efficiency Almaz Saliev, deputy chairman of the State Customs Service of Kyrgyzstan, highlighted the transformational nature of the project: “This system is not only an operational improvement but also a commitment to a modern, user-centered approach to border management.” The new system addresses longstanding issues faced by Kyrgyz exporters and freight forwarders, particularly delays at border crossings. While the pilot project focuses on the Uzbekistan border, border delays have also been a recurring problem for Kyrgyz trucks crossing into Kazakhstan. These delays have disrupted goods transit to Russia and other destinations, prompting periodic complaints from Kyrgyzstan about excessive queues. The eQMS pilot project marks a significant step toward more efficient, transparent, and reliable border management, paving the way for smoother trade flows and stronger regional connectivity.

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Why Kazakhstan Wants to Change Subsoil User Taxation

Kazakhstan is considering a significant change in the taxation of subsoil users, with Minister of Industry and Construction Kanat Sharlapayev proposing the introduction of royalties to replace the current mineral extraction tax (MET) for licenses issued from January 1, 2026. According to Sharlapayev, this shift would attract more investors to Kazakhstan and encourage the domestic processing of raw materials. Why Investors Are Dissatisfied with MET The MET, introduced in 2008, is levied on subsoil users for every type of mineral, hydrocarbon, underground water, and therapeutic mud extracted in Kazakhstan. Each resource is taxed at a separate rate, calculated based on the volume of extracted raw materials rather than their actual sale or revenue. This has caused dissatisfaction among both local and foreign subsoil users. Over the years, discussions have intensified about replacing MET with royalties, which would calculate taxes based on the volume of products sold or profits earned. Sharlapayev stated during a recent government meeting that experts from the World Bank have recommended this change to make Kazakhstan’s mining sector more attractive to investors. “Globally, the most popular taxation model in the mining and metallurgical sector is based on the volume of products sold or profits earned. Kazakhstan, however, uses the mineral extraction tax. Introducing royalties tied to the sales value of minerals would be more transparent and familiar to international mining players,” Sharlapayev explained. Sharlapayev also emphasized that replacing MET with royalties would incentivize domestic production by imposing lower taxes on minerals processed within Kazakhstan compared to those exported without processing. He urged Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov to instruct the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of National Economy to include royalty provisions in the new Tax Code, expected to take effect in 2026. However, these changes would only apply to licenses issued from January 1, 2026. Concerns Over the Transition The Ministry of Finance has expressed reservations about the proposed shift, citing potential revenue losses. In September, Zhanybek Nurzhanov, Deputy Chairman of the State Revenue Committee, warned that transitioning to royalties could cost the state budget hundreds of billions of tenge. “We can switch to royalties only if there are no losses for the budget. If we simply introduce royalties and reduce business payments, it raises a serious question—how do we offset nearly half a trillion tenge in lost tax revenue?” Nurzhanov said. Additionally, Nurzhanov pointed out that determining the true value of exported raw materials would require the establishment of specialized laboratories, imposing financial burdens on both businesses and the state. This, coupled with the complexities of administering royalties, could deter subsoil users. Kazakh economist Galymzhan Aitkazin echoed these concerns, noting that MET’s fixed rates provide predictability for both businesses and the government, while royalties—tied to revenue or market prices—introduce variability. “The simplicity of flat MET rates allows companies to plan effectively and helps the government forecast revenues. By contrast, royalties linked to revenue or market prices could lead to payment variability, complicating financial planning for both parties,” Aitkazin explained. He also emphasized that MET’s straightforward...

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Amid Sanctions, China’s Xinjiang Strengthens Ties with Central Asia

China’s Xinjiang region is deepening its engagement with Pakistan and Central Asia as part of efforts to counter Western sanctions and bolster its role in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). On November 26, officials from Xinjiang met with their counterparts from Kazakhstan’s Zhetysu region for the first meeting under a new cross-border coordination mechanism. The discussions focused on cross-border tourism, infrastructure, market regulation, quarantine measures, and joint crime prevention. The meeting culminated in the signing of a memorandum on cross-border tourism. The discussions took place near the port of Khorgos, a critical hub for the China Railway Express, which connects China with Europe. Khorgos is home to China’s first cross-border cooperation center, where residents of neighboring countries can engage in business and shop visa-free. The center allows duty-free purchases of up to 8,000 yuan ($1,104) per day. Xinjiang Governor Erkin Tunyoz stressed the importance of strengthening ties with Zhetysu in areas such as trade, tourism, security, and agriculture. This cooperation is becoming increasingly crucial for Beijing as Xinjiang grapples with sanctions from the United States and other Western countries over alleged human rights abuses—a claim that China denies. Sanctions include the U.S. Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which prohibits imports from Xinjiang suspected of being produced using forced labor. Similar measures have been implemented by Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. In addition to its collaboration with Kazakhstan, China has established a dialogue mechanism with the five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Since 2020, foreign ministers from these nations have met annually to discuss logistics, trade, investment, agriculture, mining, and security. Li Lifan, a Central Asia scholar at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, described Xinjiang as a “bridgehead” for the BRI. He highlighted the region’s rich natural resources and its role as a base for major industries, including automobile manufacturing. In 2023, trade between Xinjiang and Central Asian countries surged by 50%, reaching 283 billion yuan ($39 billion). Despite these successes, Li cautioned about future challenges. He noted uncertainties surrounding potential Western secondary sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Additionally, U.S.-China relations remain fraught, with further unpredictability anticipated under the leadership of Donald Trump. “Full economic development may only be achievable once global tensions ease,” he said.