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Government Bonds

Kyrgyzstan’s Domestic Debt Rises Amid Strong Demand for Government Bonds

Kyrgyzstan is experiencing a gradual increase in domestic public debt, driven by growing demand for government securities. According to the National Bank, the volume of domestic debt has risen by approximately $34 million over the past ten days following the placement of government treasury bonds. Trading data show that the total volume of government securities in circulation increased from $4.24 billion on March 13 to $4.27 billion by March 23. Although the increase remains moderate in absolute terms, the pace of growth suggests renewed activity in the domestic debt market. Long-term instruments are currently the most popular among investors. Over the ten-day period, placements of five-year government bonds amounted to roughly $23 million. Demand for ten-year securities has also remained stable. Their total volume rose from $631 million to $642 million during the same period, indicating investors’ willingness to lock in yields over longer horizons. Interest in government bonds is largely supported by relatively high returns. Yields on ten-year securities currently stand at around 16% per annum, while five-year bonds offer slightly more than 15%. These rates are close to average corporate bond yields, estimated at approximately 18%. Against this backdrop, government securities are widely viewed as a more reliable investment instrument with competitive returns. In contrast, short-term bonds attract significantly lower demand. Yields on one-year government securities and other short-term instruments remain at about 5–6%, making them less appealing to investors. Nevertheless, demand for these bonds remains stable, albeit limited. Analysts note that the expansion of domestic borrowing has coincided with increased participation by citizens in the financial market. Since the early 2020s, financial authorities have gradually raised yields on government securities to attract funding for the state budget and encourage retail investment. At the same time, the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance have introduced financial literacy initiatives aimed at broadening public engagement with investment instruments.

Nuclear Power Plant

Uzbekistan Launches First Concrete Works at Planned Nuclear Power Plant

Construction of Uzbekistan’s first nuclear power plant has entered a new phase, with initial concrete works officially launched at the project site in the Farish district of the Jizzakh Region, according to the country’s Atomic Energy Agency, Uzatom. The milestone was marked on March 24 during simultaneous ceremonies held in Tashkent and at the construction site. During the events, Uzatom and Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom signed a number of strategic documents, formally advancing the project to the stage of practical implementation. Among the agreements were a cooperation roadmap covering nuclear and related sectors, as well as an addendum to the contract for the construction of an integrated nuclear power facility in Uzbekistan. The documents were signed by Uzatom Director Azim Akhmedkhadjaev and Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev. According to Uzatom, the roadmap outlines cooperation in areas such as project implementation phases, workforce training, public engagement on nuclear energy, and the development of infrastructure for a future town for plant personnel. Uzbek officials said the agreement establishes a comprehensive partnership expected to contribute to both economic and social development. At the construction site, work has begun on laying the concrete foundation beneath the reactor building for a small modular unit using the RITM-200N design. Approximately 900 cubic meters of concrete are scheduled to be poured, with this stage expected to be completed by April 2026. The foundation will incorporate the waterproofing and grounding systems required for the reactor structure. The updated configuration of the plant involves two large power units equipped with Generation III+ VVER-1000 reactors, as well as two smaller units using RITM-200N reactors, each with a capacity of 55 MW. Once fully operational, the facility is expected to generate around 15.4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, more than 15% of Uzbekistan’s current power consumption. Uzatom stated that regulatory approval for use of the site has already been granted following safety assessments that identified no significant risks related to seismic activity, tectonic faults, or karst formations. The agency said the location meets nuclear, environmental, and technical safety requirements. “The start of concrete works marks an important step in implementing Uzbekistan’s national nuclear energy program,” Akhmedkhadjaev said, adding that the project is proceeding in line with established timelines and safety standards. Separately, Uzatom confirmed that a mission from the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to visit Uzbekistan in the second half of 2026 to assess progress on the project.

Trade

Kyrgyzstan Prioritizes Export Support as External Trade Declines

Kyrgyzstan is intensifying efforts to support domestic exporters as the country faces a sustained decline in foreign trade. Authorities now regard export development as a central pillar of economic policy. First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Daniyar Amangeldiyev reiterated this position during a meeting of the Export Development Council on March 24. The government is considering a range of practical measures aimed at strengthening export capacity. Among them is a pilot programme to partially reimburse transportation and logistics costs. The initiative is intended to reduce the price of Kyrgyz goods in foreign markets and enhance their competitiveness. At the same time, officials plan to expand access to financing through a new preferential credit facility titled “Export Contract Financing.” The mechanism is designed to address exporters’ cash-flow constraints and support working capital, backed by insurance instruments and state guarantees. These steps come amid a significant deterioration in trade performance. According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s exports fell by 20.3% in January 2026, while imports increased by 6.1%. The decline reflects a broader trend. In 2025, exports dropped by 44.5%, while imports rose by 3.9%. Total foreign trade turnover reached $15.8 billion, representing a decrease of 10.2% compared to 2024. Kyrgyzstan’s export geography remains relatively concentrated. In 2025, the country’s main export destinations were Russia (22.9%), Kazakhstan (15.9%), Switzerland (15.4%), Uzbekistan (14.2%), and the United Kingdom (8.2%). Imports, meanwhile, were dominated by China (37.2%), followed by Russia (24.6%) and Kazakhstan (10.9%). Such concentration increases the economy’s vulnerability to fluctuations in demand among a limited number of trading partners. The sharp fall in exports was driven largely by declining gold shipments, Kyrgyzstan’s principal export commodity. According to the Ministry of Economy, gold exports fell by a factor of 3.7 in 2025. Gold accounted for 23.9% of total exports, underscoring the country’s dependence on a single commodity. Both external and domestic factors contributed to the downturn. Weaker demand in key partner markets, including Russia and Kazakhstan, reduced export volumes. At the same time, temporary government restrictions on the export of certain goods, such as scrap metal and livestock, also constrained trade flows.

Gas Industry

Turkmenistan and CNPC Sign Deal on New Phase of Galkynysh Gas Field Development

Turkmenistan has signed a new agreement with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to advance the fourth phase of development at the Galkynysh gas field, one of the largest gas deposits in the world. According to the state news agency TDH, CNPC will design and construct production facilities on a turnkey basis, including gas wells and infrastructure capable of processing up to 10 billion cubic meters of marketable gas annually. The agreement follows a presidential decree authorizing the state concern Turkmengaz to conclude a contract with CNPC’s subsidiary, CNPC Amudarya Petroleum Company Ltd. The document provides for the construction of gas treatment facilities and the drilling of a sufficient number of production wells to maintain the planned output level. According to reports by industry publication Nebit-Gaz, work on the fourth phase was expected to begin in early 2026. The overall development plan for the Galkynysh field is divided into seven phases. Information published on the Turkmengaz website, citing the international conference “Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan, 2025,” indicates that the first phase has already been completed and is operational. It includes three gas processing plants with a combined annual capacity of 30 billion cubic meters. Turkmenistan possesses the world’s fourth-largest proven reserves of natural gas, yet its export routes remain limited. The majority of gas exports, estimated at between 80% and 90%, are directed eastward through the Central Asia-China pipeline network, often referred to as the Turkmenistan-China corridor. This has resulted in a high degree of dependence on a single export destination. Efforts to diversify export routes have encountered persistent challenges. Proposed projects involving increased deliveries through Iran, trans-Caspian connections via Azerbaijan, or pipeline routes toward South Asia have been constrained by infrastructure limitations, financing issues, and geopolitical factors. Analysts also note that delays in engaging with initiatives such as the European Union’s Southern Gas Corridor in the early 2000s reduced opportunities to expand Turkmenistan’s export geography.

Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Seeks to Expand Oil Exports Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Kazakhstan is seeking to reinforce its status as a stable oil supplier while accelerating the diversification of export routes and revising the terms of cooperation with foreign investors amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. These priorities were outlined by Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov during a speech at the CERAWeek conference in Houston and in a series of meetings with major international oil and gas companies. Discussions focused on structural changes in the global oil industry, ranging from geopolitical instability to the reconfiguration of logistics chains. According to the minister, Kazakhstan remains resilient while adapting to evolving conditions. Energy security continues to be a central concern for the sector, particularly the reliable operation of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which the majority of Kazakhstan’s oil exports are transported. This route remains the most cost-effective and strategically important option. Authorities have openly acknowledged its critical role in the national economy, stressing the need to ensure uninterrupted transit. At the same time, efforts to develop alternative routes, including the Trans-Caspian corridor and increased shipments to China, are part of a strategy to reduce logistical and political risks. On the sidelines of the forum, government officials held talks with leading energy companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell, all key investors in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry. Discussions with Chevron focused on expanding production at the Tengiz and Karachaganak fields, as well as developing export infrastructure. ExxonMobil reaffirmed its interest in increasing output at Tengiz and Kashagan, where localization levels are high, with Kazakhstani specialists accounting for more than 90% of the workforce. Talks with Shell focused on boosting production and expanding refining capacity, including refinery modernization and the production of winter-grade diesel fuel. In addition to operational issues, the discussions addressed the question of redistributing roles within joint projects. Kazakhstan is considering independently implementing certain gas-processing initiatives after partners failed to reach a final investment decision on the Karachaganak project. The development of the petrochemical industry and the expansion of refining capacity have been identified as separate priorities. Kazakhstan plans to double its oil-refining capacity to meet domestic demand and increase exports of petroleum products. To attract investment, the government has introduced a revised model contract offering tax incentives and encouraging geological exploration. Experts say Central Asia’s role in the global energy sector is increasing, with Kazakhstan playing a key part in regional stability. The minister said the country’s strategic objective is to maintain the sector’s investment appeal while ensuring maximum economic returns for the national economy. “Kazakhstan remains a predictable and reliable supplier of energy resources and is ready to translate the trust of its partners into the development of technological projects within the country,” Akkenzhenov said. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Italian energy company Eni is accelerating the expansion of its projects in Kazakhstan. The company plans to complete construction of a hybrid power plant in Zhanaozen, one of the country’s main oil and gas hubs, by the end of the year.

Society

Asian Development Bank: Poverty in Tajikistan Declining, But Inequality Rising

Tajikistan is experiencing mixed socioeconomic trends. While the country’s poverty rate has declined markedly in recent years, inequality and structural economic constraints remain significant challenges. This assessment is outlined in the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) country partnership strategy for 2026-2030. According to the ADB, the share of the population living below the national poverty line fell from 30.9% in 2020 to 19.9% in 2024. However, the improvement has been driven largely by rising incomes linked to wage growth and remittances from labor migrants rather than by sustained job creation within the domestic economy. Analysts note that this development may contribute to widening inequality, particularly in rural and remote areas where access to economic opportunities remains limited. Most of Tajikistan’s population lives in southern and central regions, where economic activity is heavily dependent on agriculture. These areas face heightened social risks. Women remain among the most vulnerable groups due to restricted access to employment opportunities and higher levels of food insecurity. Despite overall progress in poverty reduction, food security challenges persist. Approximately 1.5 million people are considered vulnerable, while around 50,000 are experiencing acute food shortages. In the 2025 Global Hunger Index, Tajikistan ranked 63rd out of 123 countries, the lowest position among Central Asian states. The ADB identifies weak economic diversification as a key structural issue. Heavy reliance on agriculture leaves the country exposed to external shocks and climate-related risks. Private sector development has been slow, constrained by shortages of skilled labor, underdeveloped infrastructure, and a complex regulatory environment. Limited integration into regional and global markets further hampers growth. Infrastructure quality remains among the weakest in the region. Restricted access to transport networks and logistics services continues to hinder industrial development and trade expansion. The energy sector also faces structural challenges. Dependence on hydropower increases vulnerability to climate change, particularly through declining water availability and glacier melt. At the same time, gaps in education and vocational training contribute to persistent shortages of qualified workers. These pressures are intensified by high levels of labor migration, especially among young people. As a result, the domestic economy experiences workforce shortages in sectors that could otherwise drive long-term growth. Although agriculture remains central to livelihoods, it is increasingly exposed to climate risks and constrained by limited access to markets, financing, and modern technologies.