Central Asia - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 4268

Macroeconomic Review

EDB Forecasts Strong Economic Growth in 2026 for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

On December 18, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026-2028, reviewing recent economic developments and offering projections for its seven member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. According to the report, aggregate GDP growth across the EDB region is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2026. Kyrgyzstan (9.3%), Tajikistan (8.1%), Uzbekistan (6.8%), and Kazakhstan (5.5%) are expected to remain the region’s fastest-growing economies. After two years of rapid expansion, the region’s GDP growth is set to moderate to 1.9% in 2025, down from 4.5% in 2024, mainly due to a slowdown in Russia’s economy. Although lower oil prices are expected to reduce export revenues for energy exporters such as Kazakhstan and Russia, the impact on overall growth will be limited. Meanwhile, net oil importers, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, will benefit from improved terms of trade and reduced inflationary pressure. High global gold prices will support foreign exchange earnings for key regional exporters, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The report also notes a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar’s share in central bank reserves across the region, though its role in international settlements remains stable. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2026, supported by the implementation of the National Infrastructure Plan and the state program “Order for Investment,” which are expected to cushion the effects of lower oil prices. Growth in non-commodity exports will also play a stabilizing role. Inflation is forecast to decline to 9.7% by the end of 2026, after peaking early in the year due to a value-added tax (VAT) increase. The average tenge exchange rate is expected to be KZT 535 per U.S. dollar, underpinned by a high base interest rate and rising export revenues. Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan is forecast to lead the region in GDP growth at 9.3% in 2026, driven by higher investment in transport, energy, water infrastructure, and housing construction. Inflation is expected to ease to 8.3%, although further declines will be constrained by higher tariffs and excise taxes. The average exchange rate is projected at KGS 89.2 per U.S. dollar, supported by robust remittance inflows and high global gold prices, gold being the country’s main export commodity. Tajikistan Tajikistan is projected to maintain high GDP growth of 8.1% in 2026, fueled by capacity expansion in the energy and manufacturing sectors, along with rising prices for gold and non-ferrous metals. Inflation is expected to reach 4.5% by year-end. The somoni is expected to remain stable, with an average exchange rate of TJS 9.8 per U.S. dollar, supported by growth in exports and remittances. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.8% in 2026, sustained by strong investment activity and favorable gold prices. Inflation is projected to decline to 6.7%, helped by tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate. The average soum exchange rate is expected to be UZS 12,800 per U.S. dollar, supported by high remittances and increased metal exports.

Migration Policy

Kazakhstan Drafts New Migration Policy Concept Through 2030

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Labor and Social Protection has developed a draft Concept of Migration Policy through 2030, aimed at fostering a more balanced approach to migration management while mitigating associated risks. The proposal is currently under government review. A central element of the draft is the enhancement of migration monitoring via the digital platform migration.enbek.kz. This platform will integrate data from multiple ministries to create a unified system for tracking internal, inbound, and outbound migration. The goal is to strengthen forecasting, analysis, and decision-making through improved access to real-time migration data. The policy also places significant emphasis on internal labor migration. Particular attention is given to internal relocants and, ethnic Kazakhs returning from abroad. The draft proposes annual regional quotas to incentivize resettlement in northern, eastern, and central regions of the country. These measures will be complemented by initiatives to boost rural incomes, support small businesses, and promote agricultural cooperatives. Officials believe this strategy will help redistribute labor resources and bolster regional demographic stability. On the external migration front, the concept outlines measures to protect the rights of Kazakhstani citizens working abroad, attract skilled foreign professionals and international students, and enhance support for returning Kazakhs. Proposed tools include bilateral labor agreements, expanded digital monitoring, and the development of specialized universities to aid in the educational and cultural integration of returnees. Internal migration remains one of the country's most pressing challenges, as major urban centers such as Almaty and Astana continue to attract young people from less developed regions, exacerbating regional disparities. The new policy aims to address these imbalances by providing targeted support for underpopulated areas.

Taliban

Taliban Dismiss Thousands of Tajik and Uzbek Fighters

The United Nations Security Council has released a new assessment on Afghanistan, revealing that the Taliban have reduced their security forces by approximately 20%. According to Afghanistan International, which cited the UN document, thousands of ethnic Tajik and Uzbek fighters have been dismissed, particularly in provinces where these groups made up a significant portion of Taliban ranks. The downsizing order reportedly came from Taliban leadership and was attributed to budgetary constraints. While the UN document does not explicitly state that the dismissals were ethnically motivated, it notes that the concentration of personnel cuts in Tajik and Uzbek-majority provinces, most notably Badakhshan, Kapisa, Parwan, and Takhar, has raised concerns about possible ethnic discrimination. Taliban officials have previously justified the reduction by claiming their security apparatus had become excessively large. However, the UN warned that the force reduction is occurring amid rising security threats, especially from Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). According to the report, ISKP has ramped up operations by leveraging modern technologies, including artificial intelligence, to create training materials, some of which reportedly instruct on the assembly of improvised explosive devices. UN sanctions monitors cautioned that this technological advancement, combined with a diminished Taliban security presence, could heighten instability across the country. Although the Taliban have conducted operations against ISKP since early 2025, the extremist group remains resilient. The UN also highlighted that the Taliban continue to publicly deny ISKP’s presence in Afghanistan while simultaneously accusing neighboring countries of supporting the group. Despite this, the Taliban have sought international counterterrorism assistance to confront ISKP. The report estimates that more than 20 international and regional terrorist organizations remain active in Afghanistan. These include Al-Qaeda, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, the Turkistan Islamic Movement, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and Jamaat Ansarullah. According to the UN, the Taliban have incorporated some former members of these groups into local security units, prompting concerns about ideological alignment and infiltration. The document further notes that advanced weaponry and military equipment are entering Afghanistan through cross-border smuggling and black market channels. Reports have also emerged of drone attacks targeting military sites in Pakistan. The Taliban are allegedly seeking technical support to expand their drone capabilities, with some countries reporting possible Al-Qaeda involvement in drone production sites in Logar and Kabul. Tensions also flared along the Tajik-Afghan border in late October. Armed clashes were reported on October 25 between Tajik border guards and Taliban fighters in the Davanga district of Shahr-e Buzurg, located in Badakhshan province. The confrontation reportedly stemmed from a dispute over water diversion from the Amu Darya river. The presence of Chinese-operated gold mining facilities in the area has further complicated the region’s security dynamics.

Science

Astana Student’s Horse Milk Video Makes Finals of “Breakthrough” Science Contest

Another Kazakh scientist received an accolade this month, after 17-year-old Tomiris Abylkairova from Astana was voted into the final 16 of the prestigious international Breakthrough Junior Challenge. The Breakthrough contest, an initiative of the Breakthrough Challenge Foundation in the United States, is a global science competition for young people aged 13-18. Held for the last 11 years, students are invited to create videos of up to two minutes in length that explain a particular concept or theory in the area of life sciences, physics or mathematics. Abylkairova’s video has a Kazakh flavor, quite literally, as she uses her two minutes to discuss how fermented foods such as kymyz (horse’s milk) influence gene regulation. Her animated video was among the top 16 in a public vote, sending her to the finals after receiving a high number of “likes” on the event website. Collectively, the 30 submitted videos were viewed more than 300,000 times. Abylkairova, a student at Haileybury Astana School who also competes in national fencing championships, commented: “Representing Kazakhstan internationally is both an honor and a responsibility. For me it’s a chance to contribute to my country’s intellectual, scientific, and cultural legacy while engaging in meaningful global dialogue and research.” She added: “I’m proud to help demonstrate that young people from Kazakhstan can make impactful, long-term contributions to the global scientific community". Isabella Leonel Lelles, also 17, from Brazil, was the overall top scorer in the popular vote, with more than 66,000 likes for her video on the protein folding problem. The videos of the 16 finalists will now be reviewed by a Selection Committee of esteemed figures in American science. It has not yet been announce when the committee will select the overall winner. The winning entry will receive $400,000, with the victorious student being awarded $250,000 in educational prizes. Past Breakthrough Junior Challenge winners have come from Canada, India, Mauritius, Peru, the Philippines, Singapore, and the United States. Alumni have gone on to attend institutions including MIT, Harvard, Princeton, and Stanford. All videos, including Abylkairova's, can be viewed on the Breakthrough Junior Challenge’s website.

Water-Saving Technologies

Kyrgyz Farmers Encouraged to Adopt Water-Saving Irrigation Methods

Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Minister of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry, Bakyt Torobaev, has urged the country’s farmers to adopt modern, water-efficient irrigation technologies, specifically drip and sprinkler systems. Citing the growing impact of climate change, glacial melt, and declining river and precipitation levels, Torobaev warned of ongoing irrigation water shortages and stressed the need for more efficient use of existing water resources. The government is undertaking large-scale water conservation efforts, including the construction of new reservoirs, the reconstruction and cleaning of irrigation canals, and the development of a new facility to produce innovative canal-lining material. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan and UK-based Concrete Canvas Ltd. are jointly implementing a €20 million project to build a local plant for manufacturing concrete canvas, a flexible, cement-based material designed to line canals and reduce water loss. Torobaev noted that modern irrigation systems currently cover only 16,000 hectares of Kyrgyzstan’s agricultural land. The government aims to expand this by 30,000-40,000 hectares annually, reaching a total of 200,000 hectares under water-saving irrigation by 2030. To support the transition, various financing options are available, including state-backed programs, bank lending instruments, World Bank project funding, and a concessional loan initiative expected to launch in 2026. According to the Ministry of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry, drip and sprinkler systems will be installed on 5,270 hectares of land in 2026, funded by the state budget. In 2024-2025, systems were installed on 2,369 hectares, 641 hectares with drip irrigation and 1,728 hectares with sprinklers. Kyrgyzstan currently has approximately 1 million hectares of irrigated agricultural land.

Travel

EU and Uzbekistan Discuss Steps Toward Easing Visa Access

Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry has initiated the first round of consultations with experts from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, according to the Dunyo news agency. The discussions focused on the potential easing of visa procedures for Uzbek citizens traveling to the European Union for purposes such as work, study, truck driving, or group tourism. Representatives from the European side outlined a number of preconditions Uzbekistan must fulfill before the European Commission can formally consider simplifying visa requirements. Both sides agreed to continue consultations in the coming period to advance the process. The talks follow President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s official visit to Brussels on October 23-24, during which Uzbekistan and the EU signed an Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. The new framework replaces the 1996 agreement and expands bilateral cooperation in trade, investment, digital technologies, environmental protection, and climate resilience. Negotiations on the updated agreement began in 2019 and concluded in 2022. While in Brussels, Mirziyoyev also held meetings with executives from leading European companies and financial institutions, including Linde, SUEZ, Meridiam, Commerzbank, and the European Investment Bank. The sides agreed to pursue new projects worth more than €10 billion across sectors such as energy, chemicals, logistics, critical minerals, textiles, and pharmaceuticals. These investments add to an existing EU-led project portfolio in Uzbekistan valued at more than €40 billion.