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Navigating Afghan-Pakistani Conflict: Central Asia’s Mediating Role in Regional Stability

Recently, there has been a significant increase in tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with both sides regularly exchanging accusations. In addition to this, border conflicts have become more frequent, with border crossings periodically closed. According to Modern Diplomacy, both countries are in a state of quite severe political conflict, and distrust and hostility from the Afghan population towards Pakistan is growing even though the "victory of the Taliban and the reincarnation of the Islamic Emirate... should have been a victory for Pakistan and strengthened its position in the region.” The confrontation between the two neighbors in South Asia is a source of concern for other countries in the region, especially for the Central Asian republics, which are increasingly acquiring the status of independent players in their dealings with Afghanistan. Due to their proximity, these republics to varying degrees link their development with a stable Afghanistan designed to become a bridge to South Asia. Negative dynamics in Afghan-Pakistani relations are a cause of much wringing of hands. Pakistan was among the first states to recognize the independence of the former Soviet Central Asian republics and has dynamic ties with them. Pakistan's trade turnover with the region is roughly $500 million annually, most of which comes from imports to Pakistan. The nations are linked by the Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA), the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, the CASA-1000 energy project, and the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan Railway Project. The majority of these projects use Afghanistan as a bridge between Central Asia and Pakistan. In this regard, the countries of Central Asia are interested in a political situation which excludes confrontational approaches; none of them are interested in further destabilization in Afghanistan. In the Central Asian republics, there is a well-established understanding of Pakistan's exceptional and particularly important role in Afghanistan’s stability. Pakistan has a defining influence on security in Afghanistan and has historically been the most integrated in Afghan issues at the level of political and multi-ethnic conflicts. Pakistan is linked to its neighbor by historical and socio-cultural ties. In reality, however, a different story is emerging. At both a global and regional level, active measures out of Islamabad set to discredit the de facto Taliban-led government of Afghanistan have been observed. Islamabad has undertaken a robust information campaign, which has put forward an entrenched narrative about Afghanistan being one of the world’s major sources of terrorism. In this information war, Islamabad, being a fully-fledged member of the international community, has clear advantages and has used all available tools, including access to global platforms. Islamabad also has access to specialized committees and departments of the UN, which regularly prepare reports on the situation in Afghanistan. Unsurprisingly, it has used these to include ideas favorable its' position on the world stage. Acting as a source of information, Islamabad has presented its point of view, which the international community has largely accepted as objective information. However, it does not provide specific data, such as the size of terrorist groups or the location of their training camps....

Taliban Asks Uzbekistan to Prohibit Music at Border Market

Taliban officials have asked Uzbekistan to cancel concerts and musical programs at the joint border market in Termez. According to Atlas Press, Afghan citizens will not be allowed to enter this market if the programs continue. The recently reopened Afghanistan-Uzbekistan joint border market in Termez stages music concerts with performances by Uzbek artists but according to the publication’s sources, the Taliban have now asked the Uzbek government to discontinue such programs. To date, neither the Taliban nor Uzbek officials have officially commented on the issue and it remains unclear as to whether Uzbekistan will respond positively to the Taliban’s request. In an agreement between the Taliban and Uzbekistan, Afghan citizens can visit and trade in the international Termez market in the Surkhandarya region of Uzbekistan for 15 days without a visa. However, as stated in the report, “It seems that the Taliban are trying to implement their controversial laws outside of Afghanistan. This recently announced law, in addition to playing and listening to music, also imposes other severe restrictions on Afghan citizens, especially women, and has faced international condemnation." Previous protests issued by the Taliban include the detention of Afghan military aircraft in Uzbekistan.

Ambassador of Taliban-led Afghanistan Starts Work in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has reported that on October 9, Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov received Abdul Ghafar Terawi, the new head of Afghanistan’s diplomatic mission to Uzbekistan, in Tashkent. During talks, both parties emphasized the need to enhance relations between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, realize the untapped potential of cooperation, and develop new projects to serve the interests of their people. The ambassador expressed gratitude on behalf of Afghanistan for the ongoing assistance provided by Uzbekistan. Speaking at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly late in September, Uzbek Foreign Minister Saidov stated that Afghanistan is an integral part of Central Asia and addressing the Afghan problem is  key to ensuring stability and sustainable development in the region. “Uzbekistan is pursuing a pragmatic policy towards Afghanistan. We will continue to contribute to Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction and the development of its transport and energy infrastructure,” announced the Uzbek foreign minister. He also commended Uzbekistan's implementation of the ambitious construction of the Trans-Afghan railway,  which by providing  access to global ports, will have a positive impact on the economic development of the vast region. The minister emphasized that the International Trade Center, recently established in the Uzbek city of Termez on the Afghan border, was designed to foster a favorable business environment and enhance logistics, and added that Uzbekistan is ready to expand the Educational Center for Afghan citizens in Termez into a global training center. Afghanistan’s TOLOnews earlier reported that China and the United Arab Emirates had also officially accepted ambassadors from the Taliban-led Afghan government. Early in September, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a decision to remove the Taliban from the list of prohibited organizations within the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. The Ministry emphasized that the removal of the Taliban, the unrecognized group that effectively controls Afghanistan, from the list of banned terrorist organizations aims to enhance regional stability and support ongoing dialogue. Early in June, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that his country had removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, stressing that the move was made to develop trade and economic ties with Taliban-led Afghanistan, and in late August, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry accredited a chargé d’affaires of Taliban-led Afghanistan to expand trade, economic, and humanitarian cooperation between the two countries.

Navigating Challenges: The ICG Reports on Taliban Drug Ban and Its Global Implications

The International Crisis Group, an NGO focused on analyzing conflicts, has reported that “After the Taliban's severe restrictions on women's rights made the regime odious to much of the outside world, the narcotics ban offers a rare opportunity to work with the new authorities on a pressing issue for the benefit of all sides.” Drugs from Afghanistan are a universal problem affecting all regions of the world except for Latin America, with Central Asia remaining one of the main routes for Afghan drugs on their way to Russia and Europe. The so-called “Northern Route” passes through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, then to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan before reaching the Russian and European markets. Turkmenistan also plays an important role as a transit country for drugs, but on the “Balkan route.” The drug threat from Afghanistan to the five Central Asian republics is not simply a political narrative used by the governments of these republics for their own political purposes. There is a risk of political instability, criminality, corruption, social degradation, and damage to human health as a result of drug trafficking from Afghanistan. Additionally, the elimination of Afghan drug production and trafficking is a key issue in the fight against terrorism, primarily against the Islamic State, as drugs are one of the main sources of income for these groups. In April 2022, hopes for a resolution to this problem appeared following the ban on opium poppy cultivation imposed by the Taliban. Papaver somniferum, commonly known as the opium poppy, has been cultivated in Afghanistan since at least the early twentieth century. The history of opium production is detailed in the Global Illicit Drug Trends report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Besides the history of opium production, the report provides an overview of measures taken by states in their attempts to regulate and control the drug. Opium began to dominate world drug markets in the early 1980s, after the “April Revolution” and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, when the state began to lose control of rural areas, and agriculture itself began to decline. As the UNODC points out, by 1989, opium production was firmly established as the country's main source of income - Afghanistan had become a narco-state. The civil war continued, and the opium economy became firmly entrenched in the country during the 1990s. The first fall of the Taliban in 2001 and the formation of a republican government failed to change the situation due to the newly formed state still having no control over the regions. As a result, its counter-narcotics measures were not effective. It should be noted that only the Taliban managed to reduce drug production. According to the UN, since the Taliban's 2023 ban, opium crops in Afghanistan have declined by 95%, and opium prices have reached record levels. However, many experts wonder if Afghanistan will be able to continue with its chosen policy. Can the new Afghan authorities alone continue to confront the drug threat, and what should be the role of...

Redefining Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s Strategic Shift in Relations With Afghanistan

On September 9, 2024, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree dismissing Alimkhan Yesengeldiyev from the position of Kazakhstan's Ambassador to Afghanistan. Yesengeldiyev has been at the post since April 2018. Local media have not yet reported on the appointment of a new ambassador. Previously, Astana has made bold diplomatic steps towards normalizing relations with Afghanistan under Taliban rule. For instance, Kazakhstan accredited Taliban diplomats in April 2023, and removed the Taliban from its list of banned organizations in December 2023. On August 21 of this year, Kazakhstan accredited the head of the Afghan diplomatic mission as charge d'affaires in the country. Astana continues to increase trade, economic, and humanitarian cooperation with the de facto authorities, and has actively engaged in various international platforms for initiatives in Afghanistan. Moreover, President Tokayev outlined Kazakhstan's position on the situation in Afghanistan just a month after the Taliban seized Kabul, when the world was still in shock. “Kazakhstan sees the future Afghanistan as a truly independent and united state living in peace with itself and its neighbors," he stated. "At this crucial historical moment, the multinational people of Afghanistan should not be left alone in the face of unprecedented difficulties.” By changing the head of its diplomatic mission in Kabul, it appears that the authorities in Kazakhstan intend to qualitatively improve the state of their relations with the Taliban. The eventual appointment of a new head of the Kazakh embassy will symbolize a new page in relations. In all likelihood, according to recognized international practice, a diplomat will be presented to the Taliban not in the rank of Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary but as the Charge d'Affaires of Kazakhstan. This will preserve the principle of parity and be understandable given international disputes surrounding recognition of the Taliban. Overall, Kazakhstan's foreign policy steps have always been characterized by consistency and an unwavering focus on international law. It seems that the world as a whole is now acclimatizing to the idea of pragmatic dialog with the authorities in Kabul, with whom it is necessary to maintain constant bilateral and multilateral diplomatic contacts. On September 27, at the official request of the British government, the embassy of the former Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in London will officially cease operations. The embassy building will not be handed over to the Taliban or any other political representation. The embassy in Oslo representing the former government in Afghanistan has also ceased functions since September 12 at the request of the authorities there. Neither the British nor the Norwegian authorities are currently commenting on the situation. A few days ago, Deutsche Welle reported that the German Foreign Ministry has accepted the Taliban's application to recognize their consulate general in Munich as the sole center for providing consular services in Germany. In July, the Taliban Foreign Ministry declared that documents issued by 14 Afghan missions abroad are illegitimate. They were located in Britain, Berlin and Bonn in Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, France, Italy, Greece, Poland, Australia, Sweden, Canada, and Norway. Currently, the...

Kyrgyzstan Removes Taliban From List of Terrorist Organizations

Kyrgyzstan has quietly removed the Taliban from its list of banned terrorist organizations. Kyrgyzstan's Prosecutor General's Office recently published a list of extremist terrorist organizations whose activities are banned by courts in the country. The list includes 20 organizations, but the Taliban is not among them. The State Commission on Religious Affairs could not answer precisely why the Taliban is not on the list. Azamat Yusupov, the agency's deputy head, told reporters that the commission had nothing to do with approving the list. “Given the recent changes in Afghanistan, the Taliban can be removed from the list of terrorist organizations. It is better to contact the judiciary, which can answer this question more accurately,” Yusupov stated. Afghanistan's Taliban government has already responded. The foreign ministry of the unrecognized Islamic Emirate said it “welcomes and approves of the Kyrgyz authorities' decision to remove the Taliban from the list of banned groups.” “The step taken by Kyrgyzstan signifies the growing political recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan at both regional and international levels and removes an obstacle to strengthening bilateral relations between Afghanistan and other countries,” the foreign ministry said in a statement. The Taliban has been recognized as a terrorist organization in different years and by other countries and organizations. For example, in Kazakhstan, the Taliban was recognized as a terrorist organization by the Supreme Court on March 15, 2005. And in Kyrgyzstan by the decision of the Pervomaisky District Court of Bishkek on September 15, 2006. In Russia, the Taliban was recognized as a terrorist organization by a decision of the Supreme Court in 2003. In June this year, Kazakhstan removed the Taliban regime from the terrorist list to develop economic interaction with Afghanistan. This was announced by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, at a meeting of the Council of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In May of this year, the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Justice reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Taliban could be removed from the list of banned organizations; however, this issue still needs to be resolved in Russia.