Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Natural Disasters

Tajikistan Turns to Early Warning Systems as Climate Risks Grow

On the evening of May 1, a mudflow swept into residential neighborhoods in Kulob, southern Tajikistan. When water flooded a neighboring house, Mirzo Muloniezov rushed inside and managed to carry out his two-year-old grandson. The water had already reached the electrical outlets. Muloniezov was electrocuted. Neighbors pulled him from the water, but he could not be saved. In the first six months of 2026, Tajik authorities recorded 741 natural emergencies. Avalanches accounted for 508 of them, while another 123 were mudflows. Twelve people were killed, and economic damage exceeded TJS 52.8 million – about $5.7 million. Dushanbe is now discussing with the United Kingdom technologies that could give people more time before disaster strikes. On September 14, Rajabali Rahmonali, chairman of Tajikistan’s Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, met British Ambassador Katherine Smitton. Along with training rescuers and holding joint exercises, the talks covered geographic information systems (GIS), risk mapping, drones, remote monitoring, and early warning systems. These are no longer technologies for some distant future. Drones and GIS are already being used to monitor glaciers and areas exposed to mudflows. In late August, scientists from the Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia surveyed the Megdor and Khirson glaciers in the Vanjob River basin. They combined aerial surveys using drones with satellite imagery, GIS data, and hydrometeorological observations. The data allow specialists to track glacier movement and areas where new hazards could emerge. During the expedition, they also surveyed the area around the village of Votkhud after a July 19 mudflow damaged water supply and irrigation infrastructure. Particular attention is being paid to the Khirson Glacier. Its sudden surges have previously blocked river channels and created glacial lakes. Such lakes can become dangerous if a natural ice or debris dam fails, sending large volumes of water crashing into the valley below. Some early warning infrastructure is already operating in the country. In June, Tajikistan’s Agency for Hydrometeorology reported the deployment of systems used for flood forecasting and early warning. Tajikistan is also rehabilitating hydrological stations and expanding its observation network. British assistance is therefore being discussed for a system that already has some of its components in place. What remains unclear is whether the cooperation will provide additional monitoring stations, drones, software, specialist training, or a combination of these – and where any new equipment or systems would operate. Kulob shows what the existing system still lacks. Heavy rains in early May triggered floods and landslides in several parts of the country. Three people died – two were trapped beneath collapsed walls, and Muloniezov was electrocuted. His son Muloniezov Yakubchon told Asia-Plus that the mudflow arrived at around 8 p.m. Water first entered a neighboring house where children were inside, and then destroyed his family’s fence. After his father’s death, the family temporarily moved in with relatives. By May 20, 520 affected families in Kulob had received government assistance, while another 330 were still waiting. Umeda Alimova, a resident of the Qurbon Zardak neighborhood, received flour,...

Glacier Melt

Kyrgyzstan Drafts $850 Million Climate Adaptation Plan Through 2035

Kyrgyzstan has put a national climate adaptation plan through 2035 out for public consultation as shrinking glaciers and changing river flows threaten water supplies, agriculture, and hydropower. Published on September 3, the draft sets out measures including climate-risk mapping, better monitoring, and improved warning systems for droughts, floods, and mudflows. The risks extend beyond Kyrgyzstan, as rivers rising in its mountains feed water systems shared across Central Asia. The draft National Adaptation Plan remains subject to public consultation and government approval. Its preliminary cost for 2026–2035 is estimated at 74.5 billion som, with more than half expected to come from international partners and climate funds. The effects of warming in Kyrgyzstan are already measurable. According to data presented with the plan, the average temperature increased by about 0.28°C per decade between 1981 and 2020. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the country’s glaciated area has shrunk by 16–17%. Even without additional warming, glacier volume could decline by more than another third by mid-century. For Kyrgyzstan, this is primarily a water issue. Mountain rivers provide irrigation for farmland and power hydropower plants, which generate most of the country’s electricity. The changes are already affecting the traditional water cycle: peak runoff on the Naryn and Talas rivers has shifted, now occuring roughly 50 days earlier than it used to, complicating irrigation and hydropower planning. The consequences extend beyond Kyrgyzstan. Rivers originating in the Tien Shan are part of Central Asia’s shared water system, where water is needed both for upstream hydropower and for major agricultural areas downstream. As glaciers retreat, countries in the region are increasingly discussing joint monitoring and closer coordination of water use. The economic cost is becoming increasingly apparent. The World Bank estimates that without adequate adaptation, Kyrgyzstan could lose 2–3% of real GDP by 2040. By mid-century, up to 24% of agricultural irrigation demand could go unmet, while an additional 170,000 people could be pushed into poverty by 2040. The problem is not limited to the gradual decline in water reserves. Warming also increases the risk of sudden natural disasters. In the northern Tien Shan, the number of glacial lakes has increased by about 30%, raising the risk of outburst floods and mudflows. Between 2015 and 2022, nearly one-third of the emergencies recorded in Kyrgyzstan were related to mudflows and floods. The new plan is intended to put the management of such threats on a permanent footing. Bishkek plans to create a climate-risk map; improve forecasting of droughts, floods, and mudflows; modernize monitoring systems; and improve the collection and use of climate data. Agriculture is another major focus. In 2024, about 26% of the water withdrawn from natural sources was lost during transportation. Authorities therefore view irrigation modernization and the wider adoption of technologies that can produce crops with less water as key adaptation measures. The cost of such a transition is high for a small economy. The World Bank estimates that around $950 million in investment will be needed through 2050 to strengthen the resilience of water...

Central Asia Water Cooperation

Water in Central Asia: Can the Five States Reach an Agreement?

Central Asia is entering a period of growing water stress, as climate change makes supplies less predictable while demand continues to rise. Populations are growing, economies require new energy and industrial capacity, glaciers are shrinking, and agriculture continues to consume most of the available water. The region’s two main rivers – the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – cross national borders, making it impossible for any one country to solve the problem on its own. After decades of disputes, Central Asian states are increasingly trying to manage water jointly. In 2026, that cooperation has produced further practical steps, from plans for automated water accounting in the Syr Darya basin to new proposals for reforming regional mechanisms. The question now is whether the five countries can agree on rules when their water needs remain different. Water and Energy: An Old Conflict The structural conflict is rooted in the region’s geography. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are upstream states and use water in part for hydropower generation, particularly in winter. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are downstream and need large volumes in summer during the irrigation season. During the Soviet period, a centralized exchange system was in place: upstream republics stored water in winter and released it in summer, receiving energy resources in return. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, that unified mechanism disappeared. Interstate agreements preserved a degree of coordination but did not eliminate the tension between upstream energy needs and downstream agricultural interests. Climate change is now adding another layer to the problem. Retreating glaciers in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains are altering the timing and reliability of river flows, while populations and consumption are increasing. Countries across the region are planning new power plants, industrial facilities, mining projects, and data centers, while agriculture remains the largest consumer of water. From Seasonal Quotas to Joint Management The main formal mechanism for coordinating river allocations remains the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC), established in 1992. Through it, countries coordinate water withdrawal limits and reservoir operating regimes in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. In late 2025, the countries agreed on water allocations for 2026: for the Amu Darya, the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 was around 55.4 billion cubic meters, while the Syr Darya allocation for the non-growing season was approximately 4.2 billion cubic meters. The five-state framework does not, however, cover every major user of the Amu Darya. Afghanistan is outside the regional allocation system, while its Qosh Tepa Canal, now under construction, has added another source of uncertainty over future downstream flows. Such agreements keep the shared system functioning, but many decisions are still made ahead of each new season. Climate change and rising demand require a longer-term model. In February of this year, Kazakhstan proposed developing a Central Asian Framework Convention on Water Use, while joint infrastructure projects, including Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarata-1 hydropower plant with the participation of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are gradually adding shared economic interests...

Glaciers

Tajikistan Glacier Mudflows Warning Issued as Climate Risks Grow

Tajikistan’s government is warning people in several mountainous regions about the threat of “localized and glacial mudflows” in the next few days, highlighting the hazards faced by some communities in a country where glaciers are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. The warning comes days after a landslide and the collapse of part of a glacier set off catastrophic flooding in Nepal that, according to the official figures on Tuesday, killed more than 1,000 people and left about 4,000 people missing. While the likelihood of a similar event occurring in Tajikistan is difficult to gauge, authorities there are aware of the instability of ice formations in some high-altitude areas and are working with international help to improve monitoring systems. The government’s current warning extends from September 2 to September 4, covering parts of the Districts of Republican Subordination, extending east and north of Dushanbe; the Sughd region, which is further north of the capital; and western parts of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, which covers nearly all of eastern Tajikistan. “Citizens are advised to take precautions against the effects of changing weather conditions,” warned the hydrometeorology agency of the state Committee for Environmental Protection. The hydrometeorology agency, which monitors weather and water, hosted a workshop on August 21 for state scientists and other specialists to learn about an automated tool that can potentially identify emerging lakes in some glacier basins in Central Asia, helping to assess the threat of possible flooding. The tool, which is called Transient Hydrologic Anomalies Weekly, or THAW, uses satellite data and the Google Earth Engine platform to monitor bodies of water. “The tool can draw attention to a potential outburst-hazard and can support the timely identification of lakes requiring further monitoring,” the Tajik agency said in a report on the workshop. The event was jointly organized with the UNESCO regional office in Almaty, Kazakhstan, and the University of Zurich in Switzerland as part of a regional initiative called Glacier Lake Outburst Floods in Central Asia, or GLOFCA. The threat of flooding from a glacial lake is a different hazard from the sudden collapse of rock and glacial ice that occurred in Nepal. But GLOFCA warns that Central Asia’s glaciers are shrinking at a rate of 0.2–1% per year by volume, increasing the possibility of unstable glacial lakes and related flooding. While many mountainous areas are sparsely populated, experts are concerned about the impact of flooding on vulnerable communities living downstream. GLOFCA says more than 1,000 “high-risk” lakes have been identified in Central Asia, and encourages regional collaboration on monitoring systems. The initiative supports the implementation of early warning systems not only in Tajikistan, but also Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan has more than 60 per cent of Central Asia’s glaciers, covering about 6 percent of the country and providing fresh water to the region, according to the United Nations Development Programme. However, many glaciers in Tajikistan have disappeared in recent decades and rising temperatures threaten many more, posing the threat to mountain communities of “floods, landslides,...

Cotton

Uzbekistan Cotton: Mirziyoyev Decries ‘Slaves to Cotton’ Past

For decades now, anyone driving through Uzbekistan, especially through agricultural areas, would likely at some point along the road have encountered a hill with rocks arranged near the top to spell out “Paxta – Bizning Oq Oltinimiz.” It translates from Uzbek as “Cotton is our white gold” and it was a mantra in Uzbekistan going back to the days of the Soviet Union. However, Uzbekistan’s current president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, does not share this view of cotton’s value to his people and was recently cited as saying the crop turned many people in Uzbekistan into “slaves of cotton.” A Black History of White Gold Going back to the early years after the Russian Tsarist Empire seized what is now Uzbekistan in the 1860s, Moscow viewed the area as an ideal source of cotton and promoted giving over agricultural land for cotton growing. Uzbekistan remained a major cotton producer as part of the Soviet Union and the emphasis on growing the crop increased. Soviet propaganda stressed production of cotton as a patriotic duty and every year, hundreds of thousands of people, including children, were forced into the cotton fields to work as “volunteers” at harvest time. The practice and the propaganda carried over when Uzbekistan became independent in late 1991. If anything, cotton gained a new importance in independent Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan did not have much to sell on international markets and cotton sales were an important means of earning hard currency. This was true for years. In 1995, Uzbekistan’s cotton sales totaled some $1.6 billion and two years later totaled $1.4 billion. While the price of cotton fell on world markets, Uzbekistan’s cotton sales were still bringing in nearly $1 billion in 2008 and in 2013 cotton and textile sales amounted to just over $1 billion. The continued use of forced labor, mainly women and children, drew international criticism and sparked calls to boycott Uzbek cotton. The Cotton Campaign launched efforts to persuade international brands to stop using cotton from Uzbekistan in 2009, with more than 330 brands eventually joining the boycott. But countries such as China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Iran still bought Uzbek cotton and forced labor in Uzbekistan’s cotton fields continued. In 2014, a Human Rights Watch report said, “The Uzbek government forcibly mobilized nearly 2 million adults and children during the autumn cotton harvest to pick cotton in abusive conditions for little to no pay.” Local officials, the heads of factories and other businesses had to meet quotas for the labor force in the fields. Imams used sermons to exhort worshippers to go pick cotton, saying it was a religious duty. The Luster Wears Off Even before he was president, Mirziyoyev indicated he took a different view of the use of forced labor in the cotton fields. In late July 2016, as international pressure was mounting, then-Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Mirziyoyev told all the provincial governors, “Each of you will be held personally accountable for the use of child labor” and added, “If I see even a single child...

Methane Emissions

Turkmenistan Methane Emissions Under Scrutiny After 192 UN Alerts

UN satellite monitoring has identified Turkmenistan as one of the world’s most serious methane hotspots, with 192 alerts for the country issued over the past year. Three of the six largest leaks detected globally by the system over the past six months were in Turkmenistan, as were nine of the top 50. Eight major leaks have since been stopped after repairs. For Ashgabat, however, the issue is also taking on commercial significance: new EU rules are gradually linking access for imported gas to the European market with its methane footprint. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has confirmed eight cases in which major methane leaks in Turkmenistan were stopped after operators took action. The first two were recorded in November 2024, with further cases confirmed at several oil and gas sites over the following year. In February 2026, two leaks were stopped at Dauletabad, one of Turkmenistan’s largest gas fields. The latest confirmed case dates to March, in Lebap Province, one of the country’s main gas-producing regions. The leaks are detected by the UN's Methane Alert and Response System (MARS), which uses data from more than 30 satellite instruments. After detecting a major methane plume, MARS provides the information to the government or facility operator and then uses satellite observations to determine whether the emissions have stopped. Meghan Demeter, program manager for MARS at UNEP’s International Methane Emissions Observatory, called the first repairs an “incredible first step.” In comments to The Guardian on August 31, she stressed that significantly more work remains to be done, saying the repairs did not yet represent a breakthrough in the overall scale of Turkmenistan’s emissions. The scale of the problem is also reflected in data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its Global Methane Tracker 2026, Turkmenistan and Venezuela have by far the highest methane emissions intensities from upstream oil and gas production among major producers. The gap between the best and worst performers is more than 100-fold. Methane intensity measures emissions relative to the amount of fuel produced, allowing producers of different sizes to be compared. According to the IEA, large emissions events visible from satellites are particularly common in Turkmenistan: the country accounts for more than a third of all oil- and gas-related MARS observations in Eurasia. Satellite studies point to a worsening trend in recent years. One found that super-emitter activity on Turkmenistan’s western coast increased by about 8% annually between 2020 and 2023. The IEA’s own analysis shows that emissions from super-emitter events across Turkmenistan grew by more than 15% a year on average over the same period. The study of the western coast also estimated that methane emissions there rose by around 7% annually between 2020 and 2023, broadly in line with growth in natural gas production. Methane has a much stronger short-term warming effect than carbon dioxide. At the same time, it is the main component of natural gas, meaning leaks also represent a loss of fuel that could otherwise be sold. The IEA notes that high emissions intensity...