Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water

Water in Central Asia: Between Reality and Alarmism

The Regional Ecological Summit 2026 will take place in Astana on April 22-24. The event is intended to elevate Central Asia’s water and environmental agenda to the level of systemic solutions. Alongside preparations for the summit, however, an increasingly alarmist narrative is gaining traction among some experts. In this framing, water resources in Central Asia are presented as being in crisis, with predictions of shortages, threats to food security, and even potential conflict. Phrases such as “there is not enough water,” “the harvest is at risk,” and “the region is on the brink” are used with growing frequency. Such assessments are typically based on generalized and dramatized claims that fail to differentiate between countries or specific river basins. This creates the impression of a single, simultaneous crisis, whereas in reality the situation is far more complex. Yes, there is a problem, but it is not sudden or one-dimensional. Water scarcity in Central Asia is real. However, it must be interpreted accurately and objectively. According to expert estimates, up to 40% of water in the region is lost through deteriorating irrigation infrastructure, while more than 80% of water consumption is accounted for by agriculture. Current practice supports these figures. In southern Kazakhstan, seasonal water supply restrictions are regularly imposed. This year, for example, the government approved consumption limits for southern regions due to an expected shortage during the growing season. Uzbekistan has said, in joining the World Bank’s Water Forward initiative, that it aims to introduce water-saving technologies across its 4.1 million hectares of irrigated land and reduce irrigation losses by 25%. Equally important are developments in upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. According to a study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the region exhibits a structural interdependence between water and energy. More than 80% of electricity in these countries is generated by hydropower, meaning water resources are used simultaneously for energy production and irrigation. This creates systemic interdependencies. At the same time, coordination of water releases and electricity generation remains suboptimal, and the absence of long-term regulatory mechanisms has already led to water shortages during certain summer periods. This is a key point: the issue is not so much an absolute lack of water, but the complexity of coordination between upstream and downstream countries, as well as between sectors within individual states. In other words, water shortages in Central Asia are often driven less by natural conditions than by how water is distributed and managed. Particular attention in alarmist narratives is given to Afghanistan and the Kushtepa Canal. Estimates commonly suggest that the Qosh Tepa Canal could eventually divert around 6-10 km³ of water per year from the Amu Darya, although projections vary and depend on how fully the canal is completed and operated. While the canal is not yet fully operational, regional officials already treat it as a serious medium-term risk, with the precise scale of future withdrawals still under discussion. Countries in the region, especially Uzbekistan, have been pursuing dialogue with Afghanistan over the canal and...

Access to Clean Water

Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...

Water Management

Uzbekistan Joins World Bank’s “Water Forward,” Aiming to Reach 1 Billion People by 2030

The World Bank Group has launched a new global platform aimed at improving water security, as Uzbekistan continues to expand cooperation with international financial institutions on infrastructure development. In a statement released on April 15, the World Bank announced the launch of “Water Forward,” an initiative developed in partnership with multilateral development banks and other institutions. The platform aims to improve access to reliable water services for 1 billion people by 2030 by aligning policy reforms, financing, and international partnerships. For Uzbekistan, where water management remains closely tied to agriculture and regional climate conditions, such initiatives come as the country continues to modernize its infrastructure and attract international financing. Earlier, on March 23, the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors approved a $200 million project to upgrade transport infrastructure in Uzbekistan’s Surkhandarya region. According to the bank, the project is intended to improve connectivity, support economic activity, and enhance access to services in the southern part of the country. “Water is foundational to how economies function. When water systems work, farmers produce, businesses operate, and cities attract investment,” World Bank Group President Ajay Banga said. “Our task now is to align reform, financing, and partnerships to deliver reliable water services at scale.” According to the World Bank, around 4 billion people globally experience water scarcity, despite water supporting health systems, agriculture, energy production, and an estimated 1.7 billion jobs. Weak regulations, unclear policies, and underfunded utilities have slowed investment in many countries, particularly in developing economies. The new platform will focus on country-led “water compacts,” under which governments set priorities for reforms, strengthen institutions, and outline investment strategies for the sector. Fourteen countries have already announced such compacts, while additional agreements are expected. The initiative also brings together a wide range of financial institutions, including the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Islamic Development Bank, to coordinate funding and technical expertise. The World Bank said it aims to help deliver water security to 400 million people directly, with partner contributions expected to raise the total to over 1 billion.

Environmental Protection

Rosatom to Neutralize Hazardous Chemical Waste at Plant in Kyrgyzstan

Rosatom is set to begin work to eliminate hazardous chemicals stockpiled at the Kristall plant in Tash-Kumyr, in Kyrgyzstan’s Jalal-Abad region. The Kristall plant, built in 1989 as a key facility of the Soviet electronics industry to produce polycrystalline silicon, has since become a high-risk environmental site. Hazardous chemical waste accumulated on its premises poses a threat to both the environment and public health. The plant has been bankrupt since 2010. The site contains 49 tanks holding a total of 155 tons of hazardous chemical residues, including trichlorosilane and silicon tetrachloride. In October 2024, Rosatom conducted a technical audit of the facility, revealing the deteriorated condition of the storage tanks. Prolonged inactivity has left the aging infrastructure in poor shape, increasing the risk of structural failure and depressurization. On April 14, in Bishkek, Rosatom and the Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations discussed technological solutions for neutralizing the chemicals. According to Rosatom, the first phase of the cleanup is scheduled for completion by the end of 2026. This stage will focus on bringing the chemical storage tanks to a safe condition. It also involves the installation of a dual emergency protection system and the introduction of independent environmental monitoring. The proposed neutralization methods have been approved by the Kyrgyz Ministry of Natural Resources, Ecology, and Technical Supervision. By the end of 2026, Rosatom aims to eliminate the risk of leaks and uncontrolled emissions by stabilizing the tanks and ensuring safe conditions for further handling of the hazardous substances. In 2027, the project will enter its second phase, focusing on the on-site neutralization of the chemicals as the preferred solution. Kyrgyz Emergency Situations Minister Kanatbek Chynybayev said the situation at the Kristall plant remains environmentally challenging and requires a comprehensive response. “Our primary objective is to eliminate potential health risks to residents of Tash-Kumyr and lift the state of emergency in the area. Rosatom’s expertise has been engaged to address this issue. As part of this collaboration, a technological strategy has been developed that will allow the threats to be neutralized within the specified timeframe and return the site to a safe condition,” he said.

Clean Energy

Kazakhstan Climbs 30 Positions in Clean Energy Investment Ranking

Kazakhstan has significantly improved its position in the international Climatescope ranking of clean energy investment attractiveness, rising by 30 places over the past eight years, according to the Ministry of Energy. The country moved from 54th place in 2017 to 24th in 2025 among emerging markets, reflecting the expansion of renewable energy and improvements in the investment climate. The Climatescope ranking assesses countries’ attractiveness for investment in clean energy and decarbonization, analyzing policies, infrastructure, and market potential across more than 100 nations. The study is compiled by BloombergNEF, a research unit of Bloomberg specializing in data and forecasts on the energy transition, new transport technologies, and commodity markets. According to the ministry, Kazakhstan’s improved standing is driven by increased investment in renewable energy projects and consistent state support for green energy. The country has introduced competitive auctions and guaranteed power purchase mechanisms, which have helped attract international investors. “Kazakhstan is making significant progress in the development of clean energy. Growing investor interest and improved market conditions indicate that the country is becoming one of the regional leaders in attracting capital for low-carbon technologies,” the ministry said. Major international companies involved in projects in Kazakhstan include TotalEnergies, China Power, Masdar, and China Energy. Looking ahead, Kazakhstan plans to commission more than 8 GW of new renewable energy capacity by 2035, which is expected to diversify the energy mix and strengthen the resilience of the national power system. Among Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan achieved the strongest result in the 2025 ranking, placing 23rd. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan presented its green energy transition strategy at an international forum in the United Kingdom. In addition, the government aims to eliminate the electricity deficit and begin exports as early as 2027.

Climate Change

Central Asia’s Climate Risks Could Cost Up to 130% of GDP by 2080

By 2080, climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the economies of Central Asian countries, with potential losses ranging from 20% to 130% of GDP. The most severe effects are projected for mountainous nations. These estimates were presented at a CAREC technology forum by Iskandar Abdullaev, a senior research fellow at the International Water Management Institute in Uzbekistan. According to Abdullaev, climate change is no longer solely an environmental issue but an increasingly significant economic factor. Key risks include droughts and water scarcity, floods, heatwaves, and glacier melt. The projected economic impact varies across the region. Tajikistan could face losses of between 80% and 130% of GDP, Kyrgyzstan 70% to 120%, Kazakhstan 40% to 80%, Uzbekistan 30% to 45%, and Turkmenistan 20% to 60%. Abdullaev emphasized that mountainous countries – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – are particularly vulnerable, as climate change directly affects water resources. Glacier melt reduces river flows, creating challenges for both energy production and water supply. Droughts and extreme heat are already placing pressure on agriculture, with declining crop yields and reduced pasture productivity. Without adaptation measures, the region’s long-term sustainability could be at risk. Experts stress that mitigation and adaptation efforts are essential to reduce these risks. These include modernizing irrigation systems, adopting climate-resilient agricultural technologies, and expanding renewable energy capacity. This is not the only warning. According to the World Bank, natural disasters are already causing significant economic damage in Central Asia. Losses from extreme events, including floods and earthquakes, can reach up to 6% of GDP, with earthquakes alone accounting for up to $2 billion in damages. At the same time, countries in the region face substantial financing gaps following major disasters. In Tajikistan, this gap could reach up to $1.5 billion. Experts warn that climate change is likely to intensify these risks, further increasing the economic burden on the region.