Irrigation - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Shortages

Uzbekistan Rejects Claims That the Amu Darya Is Drying Up

Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Water Resources has rejected claims circulating on social media that the Amu Darya River is drying up. The ministry said water continues to flow through the river, although discharge at some locations is lower than a year ago. On October 9, the water level near Termez, where the Amu Darya enters Uzbekistan, was 27 centimeters higher than it had been at the same time in 2025. Farther downstream, however, discharge at the Kerki monitoring station was approximately 11% lower than a year earlier. These figures provide little indication of the river’s longer-term condition. The ministry noted that river flows typically decline in the fall. As the irrigation season ends, water begins to accumulate in reservoirs for use the following year. The Amu Darya is formed by the confluence of the Panj and Vakhsh rivers, which originate in the mountains of Tajikistan and Afghanistan. It supplies water to agricultural regions in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, making any changes in its flow a source of concern. Concerns about water shortages are not limited to social media. In a September 30 report, the United Nations Development Programme warned that in dry years too little water reaches the Amu Darya delta in Karakalpakstan, leaving some farmland uncultivated and reducing crop yields. Meanwhile, Central Asian countries have reached another agreement on sharing river water. At an October 7 meeting in Avaza, Turkmenistan, the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination agreed on water withdrawal limits from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya for the fall and winter of 2026–2027, as well as reservoir operating arrangements. However, the published documents do not specify how much water each country will receive. Those figures remain in unpublished annexes to the meeting protocol. Officials also called for an examination of discrepancies in flow measurements at Kerki, one of the monitoring stations cited in the Uzbek ministry’s statement. Another concern is Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal, which is being built to divert water from the Amu Darya for irrigation. In March, Uzbekistan’s Water Resources Minister Shavkat Khamraev warned that Afghan withdrawals of 4 billion cubic meters annually could create a high risk of water shortages for Uzbek agriculture. Afghanistan is not a member of the regional water coordination commission, meaning its withdrawals are not covered by the October 7 agreement.

Water Security

Central Asia Agrees New Water Limits, but National Quotas Remain Unclear

Water has repeatedly caused friction between Central Asian governments. Uncoordinated releases have flooded communities downstream, while disputes over access have contributed to deadly fighting along contested borders. On October 7, the region's countries agreed on water withdrawals from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya for fall and winter 2026–2027, though published results do not reveal how much water each country will receive. The agreements were reached at the 95th meeting of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) in Avaza, on Turkmenistan's Caspian coast near Turkmenbashi. Participants agreed on national water withdrawal limits and projected reservoir operating schedules, but the figures remain in unpublished annexes to the meeting protocol. Regional cooperation has grown in recent years. In June, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan agreed on water releases and electricity supplies for the 2026 irrigation season, continuing efforts to coordinate reservoir operations across borders. Despite this progress, longstanding tensions remain. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan need water in the winter to generate electricity, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan need it in the summer for irrigation. Bishkek has revived proposals for its neighbors to share the costs of maintaining reservoirs, while Afghanistan's Qosh Tepa Canal could put further pressure on the Amu Darya. Countries are also trying to resolve discrepancies in river-flow measurements. [caption id="attachment_58085" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Officials from Central Asian countries attend talks on cross-border cooperation and sustainable development in the Amu Darya basin in Turkmenistan. Image: State News Agency of Turkmenistan[/caption] From Flooded Villages to Border Clashes The competing demands of electricity generation and agriculture are particularly evident in the Syr Darya basin. Kyrgyzstan's Toktogul Reservoir sits on the Naryn River, the Syr Darya's main tributary. In winter, Kyrgyzstan releases water to generate electricity, months before downstream farmers need it for irrigation. When these releases exceed the capacity of reservoirs and canals, the excess water can cause flooding. In February 2004, residents of Kazakhstan's Kyzylorda region experienced the consequences of uncoordinated water releases. The Syr Darya overflowed its banks, forcing the evacuation of at least 200 families. Ice had already restricted the river's flow, worsening the flooding. According to NASA, Kyrgyzstan was releasing more water from its hydropower system than the agreements allowed, with the excess flow entering the Shardara Reservoir. Uzbekistan agreed to divert some of the water into the Arnasay lake system, but it was not possible to divert the entire volume needed. As a result, the river flooded areas farther downstream. In the Amu Darya basin, disagreements developed differently. In 2012, then-Uzbek President Islam Karimov warned that disputes over water resources could lead to war. The source of tension was the construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant in Tajikistan. Tashkent feared that a large dam on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the Amu Darya, would allow Dushanbe to influence the volume of water reaching Uzbekistan's agricultural regions. The confrontation was accompanied by interruptions in gas supplies to Tajikistan, transport restrictions, and mutual accusations. Dushanbe linked Tashkent's actions to pressure over the Rogun project, although the Uzbek side disputed that...

Water Security

Opinion: Central Asia’s Old Water Bargain Was Built for Cotton

Central Asia inherited a water bargain built for another economy. In the Soviet system, upstream republics stored water and released it for summer irrigation. Downstream republics used that flow for cotton and other crops. The cost of the exchange stayed inside one plan. Water releases, electricity, fuel, and crop quotas were part of the same political economy. After 1991, the dependence survived, but the plan that balanced it did not. The 1998 Syr Darya agreement already tied reservoir operation to irrigation releases and set compensation for the winter power Kyrgyzstan gave up. The 2000 Chu-Talas agreement went on to share the cost of operating and maintaining shared water infrastructure between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Those agreements were important, and they show why today’s dispute is not new. Central Asia has long known that water regulation carries a cost. What it has not built is a wider settlement that prices storage and seasonal regulation under today’s climate, energy, and market conditions. That question is now open again. In January 2026, Kyrgyzstan’s new Water Code came into force. It recognizes water as a commodity and introduces fees for domestic and external users. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have rejected payment for transboundary river water, saying existing agreements do not provide for it. Downstream governments fear an open-ended bill and a precedent that could turn every dry season into a financial dispute. The old model rested on cotton and central planning. Several conditions have changed. The climate is less stable, energy demand keeps rising, and national economies now want more from water than a cotton plan once did. Uzbekistan’s own reform language has turned against the old cotton model. At the UN General Assembly in 2023, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said “millions of people were forced to pick cotton” in Uzbekistan over a century. In August 2026, he called the old system one that left Uzbeks “slaves to cotton.” That history shapes the water argument. Uzbekistan is not abolishing cotton. It still grows the crop and continues to reform the sector. But as Tashkent moves away from the old cotton-centered model, the regional water logic built around that model also needs revising. The same pressure runs through the Amu Darya, where agricultural adaptation has become an economic and political issue rather than a purely hydrological one. Less predictable river flows make seasonal storage more valuable. Water is also becoming scarcer in parts of the region. Kyrgyzstan sits at the center of that question. It is the only country in Central Asia whose water resources are almost entirely formed within its own territory, and Kyrgyz officials argue that it carries the upkeep for infrastructure that serves its neighbors. They say the country spent about $80 million on the water sector last year and around $259 million over five years. That spending covers the water sector as a whole, including infrastructure whose benefits reach beyond Kyrgyzstan’s borders. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan reject paying for river water, saying existing agreements do not require it. But storing that water and releasing it...

Grain Production

Kazakhstan Grain Harvest Nears 20 Million Tons Despite Dry Weather

Kazakhstan had harvested nearly 20 million metric tons of grain by late September, despite periods of dry and hot weather in parts of the country’s grain belt. The Agriculture Ministry expects the final harvest to exceed the long-term average, while disruption to Russian and Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea has added uncertainty to global wheat supplies. By September 29, farmers had harvested 13.5 million hectares, or 83% of Kazakhstan’s grain-growing area, producing 19.9 million metric tons of grain at an average yield of 14.7 centners per hectare, equivalent to 1.47 metric tons per hectare. Weather conditions varied considerably during the growing season. Parts of northern and central Kazakhstan experienced insufficient rainfall, while high temperatures created additional risks in some areas. However, later assessments by Kazhydromet described spring grain crops across much of the north as generally in good or excellent condition. Deputy Agriculture Minister Azat Sultanov said that under comparable dry conditions in previous years, yields had often fallen to 8-9 centners per hectare. The average recorded by September 29 was considerably higher, although harvesting is still underway in several of the country’s main grain-producing regions. From September 2025 through July 30, 2026, exports of grain and flour in grain equivalent reached 13.9 million metric tons, according to Kazakhstan Temir Zholy data cited by the Agriculture Ministry. That was 12.6% higher than during the same period a year earlier. Uzbekistan remained the largest buyer, importing 5.8 million metric tons, while shipments to Afghanistan reached 2.4 million metric tons. Exports to Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan also increased. Attacks on vessels and port infrastructure have severely disrupted Russian and Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea, pushing buyers in parts of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa toward alternative suppliers. That may support demand for grain from other exporters, although Kazakhstan’s landlocked location remains a constraint. Transport costs and the capacity of rail and other export corridors have a direct impact on the competitiveness of Kazakh grain in more distant markets. The structure of Kazakhstan’s agricultural production is changing, with less land devoted to wheat and more acreage allocated to oilseeds and other crops. Farmers had harvested 2.4 million metric tons of oilseeds from 2.4 million hectares by September 29. The Agriculture Ministry forecasts a final crop of more than 5 million metric tons. Official statistics put Kazakhstan’s 2025 oilseed harvest at about 4.95 million metric tons. Cotton harvesting is also continuing in southern Kazakhstan, where water availability remains a major constraint. Sultanov said the area of cotton fields using drip irrigation had increased from about 3,000 hectares to 80,000 hectares over the past two years. By September 29, 70,500 metric tons of raw cotton had been harvested, with an average yield of 32 centners per hectare.

Central Asia Water Cooperation

Water in Central Asia: Can the Five States Reach an Agreement?

Central Asia is entering a period of growing water stress, as climate change makes supplies less predictable while demand continues to rise. Populations are growing, economies require new energy and industrial capacity, glaciers are shrinking, and agriculture continues to consume most of the available water. The region’s two main rivers – the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – cross national borders, making it impossible for any one country to solve the problem on its own. After decades of disputes, Central Asian states are increasingly trying to manage water jointly. In 2026, that cooperation has produced further practical steps, from plans for automated water accounting in the Syr Darya basin to new proposals for reforming regional mechanisms. The question now is whether the five countries can agree on rules when their water needs remain different. Water and Energy: An Old Conflict The structural conflict is rooted in the region’s geography. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are upstream states and use water in part for hydropower generation, particularly in winter. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are downstream and need large volumes in summer during the irrigation season. During the Soviet period, a centralized exchange system was in place: upstream republics stored water in winter and released it in summer, receiving energy resources in return. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, that unified mechanism disappeared. Interstate agreements preserved a degree of coordination but did not eliminate the tension between upstream energy needs and downstream agricultural interests. Climate change is now adding another layer to the problem. Retreating glaciers in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains are altering the timing and reliability of river flows, while populations and consumption are increasing. Countries across the region are planning new power plants, industrial facilities, mining projects, and data centers, while agriculture remains the largest consumer of water. From Seasonal Quotas to Joint Management The main formal mechanism for coordinating river allocations remains the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC), established in 1992. Through it, countries coordinate water withdrawal limits and reservoir operating regimes in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. In late 2025, the countries agreed on water allocations for 2026: for the Amu Darya, the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 was around 55.4 billion cubic meters, while the Syr Darya allocation for the non-growing season was approximately 4.2 billion cubic meters. The five-state framework does not, however, cover every major user of the Amu Darya. Afghanistan is outside the regional allocation system, while its Qosh Tepa Canal, now under construction, has added another source of uncertainty over future downstream flows. Such agreements keep the shared system functioning, but many decisions are still made ahead of each new season. Climate change and rising demand require a longer-term model. In February of this year, Kazakhstan proposed developing a Central Asian Framework Convention on Water Use, while joint infrastructure projects, including Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarata-1 hydropower plant with the participation of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are gradually adding shared economic interests...

Syr Darya River

Central Asian States Plan Automated Water Monitoring on the Syr Darya

Central Asian countries have agreed to prepare a plan for automated water monitoring on the Syr Darya, one of the region’s main transboundary rivers. The system is intended to provide the countries with more accurate data on water volumes and distribution across the basin, where irrigated agriculture in several countries depends on river flows. The cost of weak coordination across Central Asia is already measured in billions: the World Bank estimates the region’s annual economic losses at more than $4.5 billion. The agreement was reached on August 7 in Turkistan, Kazakhstan. A working group to prepare the plan is expected to be established by the end of September. The decision was made at a meeting of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination, a regional mechanism for coordinating the use of shared water resources. The Syr Darya is formed in the Ferghana Valley by the confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya rivers, flows through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan, and ends in the North Aral Sea. The Naryn originates in Kyrgyzstan, meaning that management of the basin involves four countries. The Syr Darya supplies major agricultural areas, while a cascade of reservoirs and hydropower plants links the distribution of river flows with electricity generation. The countries’ interests have not always coincided. In the upper reaches of the basin, water is used for hydropower generation, while farther downstream demand peaks during the summer irrigation season. Accurate monitoring and timely data exchange help countries plan water withdrawals and reservoir operations during months with the highest demand. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are already developing part of the future system. The two countries are automating ten hydrological monitoring stations on the Syr Darya, five on each side of the border. Sensors are expected to record water flow and transmit the data online. At the meeting in Turkistan, the two sides agreed to accelerate efforts to secure grant financing and consider expanding the system to other parts of the basin. Kazakhstan already has experience with automated monitoring. On parts of its irrigation network, sensors remotely transmit data on water levels and pressure. Over the past decade, more than 800 kilometers of lined canals have also been rehabilitated in four regions, while irrigation system upgrades have covered more than 100,000 hectares of farmland. Uzbekistan is also seeking to reduce irrigation losses. Agriculture accounts for about 90% of the country’s water consumption. One project provides for the reconstruction of 259 kilometers of major canals and the installation of automated water-flow monitoring systems. The World Bank estimates the expected water savings at around 540 million cubic meters a year. The current season on the Kazakh section of the Syr Darya has so far been favorable. Since April 1, around three billion cubic meters of water have flowed into the Shardara Reservoir in southern Kazakhstan. This volume is higher than both last year’s figure and the long-term average. The region received additional funding for water projects in July. The World Bank allocated a $20 million grant to improve the management of...