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COP30

COP30 Delegate from Kazakhstan Says International Cooperation Is Hard, But Worth It

One of Kazakhstan’s representatives at the United Nations climate talks (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, this month was Almira Azhibekova, a Master of Environmental Management student at Yale University in the United States. As a member of the team from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, Azhibekova analyzed negotiations, helped prepare final reports, and performed other tasks. She shared this account, lightly edited by The Times of Central Asia. Views are her own. Attending COP30 as part of Kazakhstan’s delegation was an amazing chance to connect theoretical knowledge that I acquired at Yale with real-world climate diplomacy. I learned how countries like Kazakhstan access climate finance and technology support through fair partnerships and witnessed how, despite obstacles and challenges, international cooperation is the best way to turn ambitious goals into action. It is something I hope to bring back to Yale and my future work at home. What struck me most about COP30 was how global cooperation works in practice. It is inspiring, but also incredibly challenging. Seeing negotiations happen in real time was eye-opening. There is urgency, there is complexity, and there is a very human side to everything. Reaching consensus is not easy. Every country has its own priorities and concerns, and negotiators must ensure that everyone is heard and respected. Often, a single paragraph will go through informal consultations, smaller working groups, and then formal sessions before it can be agreed upon. Even one sentence in a final text can be discussed for hours, and some issues remain open for years. Diplomacy takes patience. Sometimes, a small difference in language becomes the focus of intense discussion because specific terminology can carry distinct legal and operational consequences. In international climate law, each term has a defined meaning, and a slight change in wording can alter how a mechanism will be implemented. I realized just how much weight language holds in shaping global climate action. Another insight, one I had known in theory but witnessed in practice, is that climate change affects every aspect of economies and societies and is a defining issue in international relations. Decisions made in negotiation rooms can influence economic development, security, and international cooperation, far beyond the environmental sphere. There were also practical challenges that made cooperation more difficult. Differences in languages, levels of technical expertise, national experiences, and even delegation sizes. Some countries can’t send enough people to be present in every negotiation. Equity in the process is as important as equity in the results. [caption id="attachment_39763" align="aligncenter" width="1327"] Photo provided by Almira Azhibekova[/caption] Another important factor is the quality of technical logistics and working conditions, which directly affect the effectiveness and accessibility of an already complex negotiation process. In addition to these observations, I was incredibly fortunate to speak to Dr. Katia Simeonova, a key architect and co-founder of the transparency framework under the Paris Agreement. She explained the peculiarities of negotiation: how every word in the text works in practice, how specific terms shape legal outcomes, and things that delegations must...

Strategic Partnership

Kazakhstan and Armenia Forge Strategic Partnership in Landmark Summit

Kazakhstan and Armenia have upgraded their relations to a strategic partnership after high-level talks between President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Astana on 21 November. The decision was sealed in a joint statement and framed as the start of a new phase in cooperation between the two Eurasian partners. During the official visit, the two sides exchanged 15 intergovernmental and interagency documents. These cover the protection of classified information, land for diplomatic missions, a trade and economic roadmap for 2026–2030, and cooperation in industry, agriculture, healthcare, science, education, digitalization, and the peaceful use of atomic energy, as well as new links between national museums, libraries, and film institutions. A Kazakhstan–Armenia Business Council was also created to bring companies into the process. Tokayev underlined the political meaning of the upgrade, stating that an “open and trusting political dialogue has been established between Astana and Yerevan at all levels. Interstate ties are truly constructive, with significant potential for their comprehensive strengthening and expansion.” Pashinyan, meanwhile, stressed the human dimension, noting that “we respect the Kazakh people, and this respect is the foundation for the further development of bilateral relations.” Their meeting builds on Tokayev’s official visit to Yerevan in April 2024, when the two governments first drew a roadmap for closer ties. Symbolism played a significant role in the visit, with Tokayev awarding Pashinyan the Order of Altyn Qyran (Golden Eagle), Kazakhstan’s highest state honor, in recognition of his role in Armenia’s development, regional peace efforts, and bilateral relations. This year, Yerevan has hosted the Days of Kazakhstan Culture and opened a park named after the Kazakh poet, Abai, while Kazakhstan has promoted Armenia’s cultural presence at events and academic centers, helping anchor the relationship beyond government channels. [caption id="attachment_39747" align="aligncenter" width="900"] Image: Akorda.kz[/caption] The strategic label is the high point of more than three decades of diplomatic relations. Armenia and Kazakhstan first established ties in August 1992, and shortly opened embassies in each other’s capitals. A Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation was signed in Astana in September 1999. Both are members of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which lends their interaction a dense multilateral framework. Now, trade and connectivity are catching up with political rhetoric, with both sides eyeing room to expand. According to Armenia’s economy minister, bilateral trade reached $104 million in 2023, up 2.4 times from 2020, with Armenian exports making up more than two-thirds of the total. Kazakh figures, meanwhile, show mutual trade rising but still at a modest $53.1 million by the end of 2023, partly due to the lack of rail links and past transit restrictions in the South Caucasus. Those obstacles, however, are beginning to ease. In October, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev lifted restrictions on transit to Armenia, which allowed the first shipment of 1,000 tons of Kazakh wheat to reach Armenian markets via Azerbaijani territory in November. Kazakhstan and Armenia also plan to launch direct air links and expand air cargo, a step Tokayev has called...

Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan vs Eni: How a Swiss Lawsuit Could Reshape the $160 Billion Kashagan Dispute

The legal landscape surrounding Kazakhstan’s energy sector has taken an unexpected turn. What began as a closed commercial arbitration dispute has now entered the public sphere in Switzerland’s courts. This marks a significant escalation in Astana’s confrontation with international oil and gas majors. According to Bloomberg, PSA LLP, a structure representing Kazakhstan’s interests in production-sharing agreements (PSAs), has significantly broadened its claims. The lawsuit now directly targets alleged schemes involving units and executives of the Italian company Eni. Kazakhstan alleges that during the early development of Kashagan infrastructure, including the Bolashak processing plant and pipeline systems, corruption and fraud may have occurred. Arbitration claims against the NCOC consortium, which includes Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Eni, exceed $150 billion. Within this context, the Swiss case has become the most sensitive element. The Swiss case itself is much smaller – $15 million plus interest – and is being used to gather evidence and strengthen the larger arbitration case. While the financial stakes are high, the proceedings reflect a deeper political shift. Kazakhstan is moving away from the 1990s model of offering investors exceptional privileges. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s “Fair Kazakhstan” policy, the state is aiming to secure more balanced and equitable cooperation with foreign partners. Distinctiveness of Swiss Proceedings The Swiss case is distinctive due to the nature of its allegations. The plaintiffs claim that during the tenure of Agip KCO (an Eni subsidiary) as project operator, contracts were awarded amid corrupt practices. Allegations include inflated prices and kickbacks to contractors. Targeting Eni is deliberate. The company led the project during its most troubled phase from 2001 to 2008. Kashagan’s budget swelled during this period, with repeated delays. Following a 2013 gas leak, production was halted for nearly three years. Kazakh officials have long linked Kashagan’s massive cost overruns and technical failures to poor procurement and mismanagement, and the current legal offensive zeroes in on alleged corrupt tenders. Cost estimates rose from a few tens of billions of dollars to around $60 billion, and by 2007, projections for total project costs had reached about $136 billion. Why Switzerland? The selection of the Swiss jurisdiction is strategic. Switzerland’s laws on corruption and financial crimes allow for the prosecution of both corporations and individual executives. Moreover, many entities connected to Kashagan’s operations are registered there. Another factor is the PSA’s stabilization clause, which forbids altering the contract’s terms. However, under international legal norms, if corruption is proven in the contract’s formation, such protections can be voided. This opens the door for Kazakhstan to challenge key financial terms of the agreement. Resource Nationalism 2.0: Legal Strategy Meets Political Logic Astana’s current posture can be described as a form of “new-generation resource nationalism.” Rather than using administrative leverage, the state is deploying legal tools to address grievances. This is driven in part by Kazakhstan’s fiscal needs, ranging from infrastructure upgrades to social spending. Amid these pressures, the vast expenditures reported by Kashagan operators have drawn public skepticism. Kazakhstan’s claims aim to re-evaluate the cost recovery model...

Military

Food Conditions in the Turkmenistan Army Under Scrutiny

Conscripts returning from military service in Turkmenistan have reported severe food shortages, stark inequality between soldiers and officers, and institutional indifference. Against a backdrop of chronic malnutrition, instances of illness, interpersonal conflict, and even fatalities have been documented. According to former soldiers, food rations in the Turkmen armed forces are grossly inadequate and fall far short of nutritional standards. Daily meals typically consist of boiled pumpkin, stewed cabbage, beets, and rice porridge for breakfast and dinner. Lunch includes a thin soup reportedly containing only "pieces of carrot" and little else. Bread quality is a major concern. Flatbread made from locally sourced flour is often undercooked, forcing conscripts to eat it half-raw, leading to widespread gastrointestinal issues. Meanwhile, soldiers from wealthier families reportedly fare much better. Their relatives send money, which conscripts use to pay canteen cooks for preferential treatment. These soldiers are served separately, receiving meat dishes, salads, fruit, soft drinks, and properly baked bread. In some regions, such as the Balkan region, entrepreneurs have been officially allowed to open cafes near military checkpoints. There, soldiers can purchase rice, samsa, and other local dishes, funded either by family support or their own limited savings. One tragic incident occurred this summer at a base in the Balkan region. A fight broke out outside the canteen when a soldier from a well-off family refused to share his meal. The altercation escalated, ending in the death of one private and a lengthy prison sentence for the other. Discontent is also reportedly growing among officers. Despite earning relatively high salaries for the region, between $860 and $1,140 per month, many do not receive housing, forcing their families to pay substantial rents, which significantly reduces their disposable income. Graduates of the Ministry of Defense’s Military Institute are required to serve a minimum of five years before becoming eligible for discharge. However, approval for resignation remains at the discretion of the command, and with ongoing personnel shortages, such requests are frequently denied.

Unrest

Chinese-Kyrgyz Tensions Flare After Brawl at Construction Site

A roadside quarrel between Kyrgyz and Chinese workers in northern Kyrgyzstan escalated into a mass brawl, exposing simmering anti-Chinese sentiment in the Central Asian country. The fight broke out on November 15 in the village of Konstantinovka, Chui province, after a dispute over which truck had the right of way on a narrow road. Dozens of construction workers from both sides were involved. Police detained 16 people and brought in another 44 – including several Chinese nationals – for questioning. One Kyrgyz worker was hospitalized with head injuries, suffering a concussion and multiple bruises. Authorities quickly launched an investigation into the incident, and officials urged the public to refrain from spreading unverified rumors about the clash. The altercation reportedly involved drivers from two road construction companies – the state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and a local subcontractor, Zhongzi, with what began as a minor traffic argument at a quarry site spiraling into physical violence. Videos of police detaining the brawlers later surfaced online, igniting a broader outcry. The timing of the fracas raised alarms in Bishkek, coming just two weeks before Kyrgyzstan’s scheduled November 30 parliamentary elections and only days ahead of an official visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on November 19. The authorities have moved to contain the fallout from the brawl before it can inflame any further anti-Chinese backlash. Election Provocation Claims President Sadyr Japarov was quick to downplay the confrontation and warn against politicizing it. Speaking to the state news agency Kabar, Japarov argued that such scuffles, while unfortunate, should not be blown out of proportion or framed as an international issue. “Anything can happen in life. In Bishkek, two Kyrgyz can quarrel and fight on the street - we see this on social media. But such everyday conflicts should not be elevated to the level of interstate problems,” Japarov said. “We know who they are. For now, we are just watching. If they cross the line, they will be arrested. And then they’ll start shouting that they were ‘detained for no reason.’ They have no other topics - only electricity and the Chinese.” Other officials echoed Japarov’s call for calm, with Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev dismissing claims that Chinese laborers are “flooding” Kyrgyzstan and stealing local jobs. “Chinese citizens are working on the basis of work visas. We have a visa regime. When their visa expires, they leave,” Kulubaev said, urging the public not to exaggerate the issue. Deputy Prime Minister Edil Baysalov posted on social media that "such provocations do not arise on their own. Their goal is to weaken and possibly derail the country's economic strengthening, undermine our growing international authority, and ultimately strike a blow to Kyrgyzstan's statehood itself." Daiyrbek Orunbekov, a spokesman from the president’s office, similarly wrote on Facebook that “conflicts happen wherever there are people – it doesn’t depend on ethnicity or race,” pointing out that over 1.5 million Kyrgyz citizens work abroad and sometimes get into fights as well. “Don’t be misled by provocateurs,” Orunbekov cautioned, suggesting the brawl was being exploited by...

Lukoil

Lukoil ‘Garage Sale’ – Uzbekistan Bows Out, Kazakhstan Keeps Its Options Open

The story of the disposal of foreign assets by Lukoil, which has fallen under U.S. sanctions, is reaching its closing stages. A shortlist of potential buyers has already emerged, and in Kazakhstan intrigue remains: will the country’s national oil and gas company capitalise on the opportunity to acquire Lukoil’s shares in major projects? A recent Reuters report noted that potential buyers of Lukoil’s assets face two key complications: first, U.S. firms, such as Carlyle, Chevron, and Exxon, are seen by analysts as more likely to get licensed, meaning deals will only be recognised after proper U.S. licence approval. Second, Lukoil itself had preferred to sell its assets as a package deal rather than piecemeal. However, after a deal to offload assets to Guvnor collapsed, several analyses now say a full package sale is unlikely and that piecemeal deals are more realistic or even more profitable. A new negotiation deadline has now been set for December 13, 2025, for the completion of authorised transactions. Kazakhstan-based oil and gas market observer Oleg Chervinsky suggests that this could increase the likelihood of a “twostage process”. “Most likely, a single buyer with sufficient resources will purchase all of Lukoil’s foreign assets at a significant discount, then sell them off in parts,” Chervinsky said. Some media reports point to the U.S. investment firm Carlyle Group as showing interest in Lukoil’s assets. The firm is considered a plausible main buyer due to its former ties to U.S. presidents Bush senior and junior. In this scenario, Carlyle would act both as buyer and organiser of the subsequent 'garage sale' of individual assets. Other firms, such as Chevron Corporation and ExxonMobil, have already been linked in reports with interest in Lukoil’s Kazakh stakes in the Tengiz and Karachaganak oil fields, while Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has shown interest in Lukoil’s Uzbek gas projects. Meanwhile, three weeks ago, Uzbekistan made its position clear: it will not participate in the acquisition of Lukoil’s assets. Uzbekneftegaz Chairman Bahodir Sidikov said that "Buying out Lukoil’s assets in Uzbekistan is not on the table right now.” In Kazakhstan, energy sector experts believe that this moment presents a real window of opportunity to acquire Lukoil’s shares in systemically important oil and gas projects. “Why hasn’t our Ministry of Energy asked: does the Ministry approve changes in the shareholder structure under the terms of the stabilized contracts for Tengiz and Karachaganak? These shares (if a sale takes place) should go to KazMunayGas. If KMG doesn’t have the cash, then the Chinese state-owned CNPC should be brought in. To balance interests, it would be optimal for one of the world’s largest oil corporations to enter Tengiz and Karachaganak,” argues specialist Olzhas Baidildinov. Baidildinov cited a review by Norway’s Rystad Energy estimating that Lukoil’s net cash flow from its Tengiz stake over the next five years will total $2.8 billion, and from Karachaganak $2.1 billion. However, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov recently stated that the government is not considering a purchase of Lukoil’s shares. At the same time,...