• KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10460 0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28490 0%

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Petropavl – A City of Two Tales

No one seems to like the name Petropavl. The city, situated in northern Kazakhstan in a peninsula of territory that juts into Russian Siberia, has long lived between two worlds. From monuments to manhole covers, there have long been conflicting stories about who belongs here. In the Russian telling, the city was founded as a fortress on “empty steppe” in 1752 by Tsarist troops, named for Saints Peter and Paul – in Russian, Petropavlovsk. For over a century, it remained a frontier post that guarded the empire’s edge before the push into Central Asia in the mid-nineteenth century. Yet for Kazakhs, this place was never empty: long before the Cossacks came, nomadic Kazakhs from the Middle Zhuz grazed their herds here along the Ishim River, calling the place Qyzyljar – “the red ridge”. [caption id="attachment_38326" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Manhole covers imprinted with Qyzyljar; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Since independence, Kazakhstan has restored the names of thousands of cities, towns, and villages across the country in order to give the land a more Kazakh stamp. But Qyzyljar has not returned. Instead, the authorities’ immediate solution has been to Kazakh-ify the Russian name, leaving us with Petropavl. It’s a fudge that satisfies no one, and the official name is rarely heard on the city streets. In this overwhelmingly Russian-speaking city, most continue to call it “Petropavlovsk,” or even “Piter,” echoing Saint Petersburg’s nickname. Ethnic Russians Ethnic Russians now make up just under half the population of the North Kazakhstan region. In individual cities such as Petropavl, the proportion is far higher, although official information is hard to come by. The boundaries of Kazakhstan’s provinces, or oblasts, were gerrymandered in 1997 to soften perceptions of Russian dominance, but a mere walk around the city makes it clear that about two-thirds of the population is not Kazakh. These numbers and the region’s proximity to Russia have long made it a focus of uneasy attention. When Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014, President Vladimir Putin remarked that Kazakhstan had “never had statehood” before Nursultan Nazarbayev, and Dmitri Medvedev called it an “artificial state” in 2022 (although he subsequently claimed to have been hacked). Other Russian lawmakers have called northern Kazakhstan “a gift from Russia,” while nationalist commentators as far back as Solzhenitsyn have called for Northern Kazakhstan to be “reunited” with Russia. Dr. Petr Oskolkov, affiliated researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, was part of a team that undertook research on the ethnic Russian population in Kazakhstan in 2020-21, and believes that these fears are overblown. “Initially, there was a lack of public trust in the prospects of Kazakhstani statehood, especially among Russian-speakers. Nowadays, these doubts are absent,” he told The Times of Central Asia. “Moreover, the overall level of the identification with Kazakhstan, and the quality of life, have both grown significantly since the 1990s, so the idea [of separatism] has lost its main appeal.” [caption id="attachment_38320" align="aligncenter" width="1200"] Soviet mosaic; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Nevertheless, doom-mongers in Astana worry that Petropavlovsk...

C5+1 at 10: Washington Seeks Concrete Outcomes With Central Asia

A leaders’ summit between Central Asia and the United States is scheduled for 6 November in Washington, D.C. Kazakhstan’s presidency has said the meeting will take place on that date, and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has confirmed his attendance. Others have confirmed as well. The meeting would bring the heads of state of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to Washington for only the second leaders’ level C5+1 meeting, after the first took place on the margins of the UN General Assembly in September 2023. The timing is notable as 2025 marks the C5+1’s tenth year. Since 2015, the C5+1 format, linking the five Central Asian states with the United States, has steadily become Washington’s primary channel for strategic diplomacy in the region. With Russia constrained by the war in Ukraine and China expanding Belt and Road finance and logistics, the U.S. is building a durable presence through programmatic work, published procedures, and predictable commitments. Public calls in the United States to mark the tenth year with a Washington meeting have focused on concrete results. Stakeholders such as U.S. and Central Asian ministries, regulators, banks, carriers, and investors now expect clear schedules for practical work on corridor performance, compliance guidance under evolving sanctions, critical minerals cooperation, grid reliability, aviation access, and investment risk-sharing. The success of the summit depends on more than words that have characterized prior summits. One metric of success could be the consummation of a final joint communiqué including 90-day and 180-day check-backs with a designated lead and co-lead for each item - identified by name, title, and agency - and a requirement to publish brief progress notes. The summit was preceded by a visit of U.S. officials to the region: on October 25, U.S. Special Representative for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau arrived in Tashkent, met senior officials and U.S. companies, continued to Samarkand, and then to Almaty. The trip was not publicly scheduled; initial confirmation came via embassy Telegram posts. Discussions reportedly covered rare-earth processing and other sensitive cooperation areas, signaling agenda-setting ahead of November 6. How Washington Can Regularize Intensified C5+1 Coordination This meeting would normalize leaders’ level C5+1 engagement after the first such gathering in September 2023. That shift matters. Since 2015, the format has moved from occasional ministerials to a steadier dialogue built around defined themes, even when leaders have met on the sidelines of larger events. With Washington now hosting, observers will compare outcomes to the 2023 joint-statement themes - security, economic resilience, sustainable development, climate, and sovereignty - and to readouts that set a precedent for presidential-level participation. In this sense, the Washington summit represents not only a procedural step but a test of whether the United States can institutionalize its Eurasia policy with a more proactive diplomacy. An annual leaders’ cycle, spring ministerials, and quarterly sherpa meetings pre-scheduled through Q4 2026 would signal a commitment to deepen the process. In Washington, there is bipartisan pressure to show continuity and delivery...

The Artistic Brilliance of Central Asia Takes Center Stage at Sotheby’s

On October 29, Sotheby’s will host its Arts of the Islamic World and India sale, featuring a dazzling selection of manuscripts, ceramics, metalwork, and jewelry that together trace the creative reach of Central Asia across six centuries. The auction highlights how the region’s artists shaped Islamic visual culture from the early medieval period to the Timurid age. Among the most important works is a rare page from the monumental Baysunghur Qur’an, produced around 1400 in Herat or Samarkand. Another piece connects to the earlier Samanid Dynasty, whose rule from Bukhara and Tashkent fostered a flourishing of calligraphic pottery in the ninth and tenth centuries. The Arab geographer al-Maqdisi once praised the “large bowls from Shash,” an early name for Tashkent, noting their reputation throughout the Islamic world. [caption id="attachment_38298" align="aligncenter" width="1797"] A line from the 'Baysunghur Qur'an', attributed to 'Umar al-Aqta, Herat or Samarkand, circa 1400; image: Sotheby's[/caption] Two colorful Timurid mosaic tiles from the fourteenth or fifteenth century illustrate the architectural splendor of Samarkand and Herat. Their glazed patterns in cobalt, turquoise, and white once formed part of vast decorative panels in mosques and mausoleums. The geometric interlace and stylized foliage that define them became a visual signature of Timurid architecture, a style that spread from Central Asia to Persia and India. [caption id="attachment_38301" align="aligncenter" width="1346"] A Golden Horde turquoise and pearl-set gold belt or necklace, Pontic-Caspian Steppe, 14th century; image: Sotheby's[/caption] The Times of Central Asia spoke with Frankie Keyworth, a specialist in Islamic and Indian Art at Sotheby’s, for a closer look. TCA: How did manuscripts like the Baysunghur Qur’an serve as symbols of power and faith in the Timurid court, and what does its immense scale - a Qur’an so vast it took two people to turn a page - reveal about the empire’s ambition, artistry, and self-image? Keyworth: The manuscript was a hugely ambitious and challenging project, even just by the tools it would take to create, with monumental sheets of paper measuring 177 by 101cm., and a large pen whose nib would have to measure over 1cm. Displayed on a magnificent marble stand, the manuscript would be a staggering visual representation of the patron’s wealth and piety. Their subsequent use during public recitation reinforced the elite’s religious aspirations. The fact that this manuscript is unsurpassed by any other medieval Qur’an and remains so valued centuries after it was produced at the turn of the 15th century reveals the key role manuscripts played in the establishment of the Timurid dynastic image. [caption id="attachment_38299" align="aligncenter" width="1346"] A Timurid brass jug (mashrabe), Herat, Afghanistan, 15th-early 16th century; image: Sotheby's[/caption] TCA: A brass jug from Herat shaped like a Chinese vase, a ceramic bowl from Tashkent inscribed in Arabic script - these objects tell of traders, scholars, and artists linking worlds from Samarkand to Beijing long before globalization had a name. What can you tell us about how this trade transpired, and are there similarities to modern transport corridors? Keyworth: Trade via the so-called Silk Road endured for...

Kazakhstan’s Strong Bond Sale Anchors Regional Capital Markets

The Republic of Kazakhstan once again captured global investor attention with its highly successful sovereign bond issuance in October 2025, underscoring its status as Central Asia’s benchmark borrower. The Ministry of Finance sold a $1.5 billion five-year Eurobond at a record-low 4.412% yield, about 85 basis points above U.S. Treasuries, after attracting nearly $4.4 billion in orders from a geographically diverse investor base spanning Europe, the U.S., and Asia - almost three times oversubscribed. Strong Market Reception and Competitive Pricing This five-year issue achieved the lowest yield in Kazakhstan’s independent history and was one of the tightest-priced five-year sovereign bonds among investment-grade peers, pricing inside higher-rated Poland, and modestly above Qatar’s comparable five-year yield. The Finance Ministry credited the result to investors’ confidence in Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic management and fiscal credibility, strengthened by the country’s ongoing budget and tax reforms enacted in 2025. These measures have reinforced perceptions of policy discipline and institutional reliability, enabling Kazakhstan to secure funding at exceptionally low costs. June 2025: Dual-Tranche Success In June 2025, Kazakhstan executed a $2.5 billion dual-tranche Eurobond comprising a 7-year $1.35 billion note at 5.0% and a 12-year $1.15 billion note at 5.5%. Investor demand was exceptional, with orders roughly twice the issue size from global funds across Europe, the U.S., and Asia. The transaction priced tightly against comparable BBB sovereigns, reflecting market confidence in Kazakhstan’s low debt levels, ample reserves, and consistent reform momentum. Together, the June and October offerings have demonstrated Kazakhstan’s ability to tap international markets repeatedly in 2025 on favorable terms, even amid global volatility. Fiscal Strength and Ratings Support Kazakhstan’s strong market performance rests on a robust fiscal foundation and solid credit ratings. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘BBB’ with a Stable Outlook, noting the country’s low government debt - around 25% of GDP - and substantial sovereign net foreign assets supported by the National Fund and foreign-exchange reserves. Combined reserves and National Fund assets total roughly $93 billion, equal to about 31% of GDP. S&P Global Ratings, which upgraded Kazakhstan’s outlook to Positive in August 2025, forecasts 5.5–5.6% GDP growth and has commended progress in deficit reduction and institutional reform. The agency noted that Kazakhstan’s new Budget and Tax Codes, along with tighter fiscal rules and improved oversight of quasi-fiscal activities, are expected to strengthen fiscal consolidation and institutional transparency. These reforms, together with the country’s moderate debt burden and substantial sovereign assets, have helped sustain investor confidence. Kazakhstan’s ability to issue Eurobonds at yields tighter than some A-rated peers demonstrates that credibility in practice, and market participants now view the country as the regional benchmark sovereign in Central Asia. Uzbekistan: Reform Progress, Higher Yields In February 2025, Uzbekistan raised roughly $1.5 billion equivalent through a multi-currency sovereign issue — a $500 million 7-year U.S. dollar tranche at 6.95%, a €500 million 4-year euro tranche at 5.1%, and a UZS 6 trillion 3-year local-currency note at 15.5%. Total demand reached about $4.2 billion, nearly 2.8 times oversubscribed, underscoring strong...

Tajikistan and the Taliban – Talking and Fighting

Peaceful coexistence is turning out to be complicated for Tajikistan and the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The Tajik government has viewed the Taliban as a threat since the militant group appeared in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s. But now that modest efforts are underway to establish some sort of amicable ties, there has been an uptick of violence directly involving the two sides along the Tajik-Afghan border. Let’s Keep This Between Us Tajikistan is the lone government in Central Asia that remained hostile to the Taliban after the latter returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. In the weeks that followed, the Taliban again exerted control over Afghanistan, and the Tajik government and the Taliban sent reinforcements to their common border. Russia and Pakistan had to intervene to ease tensions. The other Central Asian states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, have all established a business relationship with the Taliban government since the Taliban again seized control, but Tajikistan has remained aloof. Which is why the visit of Muhammad Yusuf Vafo, the governor of Afghanistan’s northern province of Balkh, to the Tajik capital Dushanbe on October 23 came as such a surprise. The Tajik government did not say anything about Vafo’s trip. The independent Tajik news agency Asia-Plus cited Afghan media as reporting on the visit, during which Vafo met with the head of Tajikistan’s National Security Committee (GKNB), Saimumin Yatimov. Vafo and Yatimov reportedly discussed ways to improve ties in a variety of spheres and pledged not to let any “hostile elements” use their territory to plot or carry out attacks on the country. An estimated several hundred Jamaat Ansarullah militants of Tajik origin continue to operate in Afghanistan. The group allied with the Taliban during the last years foreign forces were in Afghanistan, propping up the government of Ashraf Ghani, and stayed in Afghanistan after the Ghani government fell. Jamaat Ansarullah fighters were among the reinforcements the Taliban sent to the Tajik border during the weeks of tension in late 2021. There were reports soon after the Taliban returned to power that Tajikistan was aiding the National Resistance Front (NRF), a mainly ethnic Tajik group of former government soldiers who continue to wage a guerrilla campaign against the Taliban. NRF leader Ahmad Masoud, the son of the legendary Afghan field commander and ethnic Tajik, Ahmad Shah Masoud, has been in Dushanbe several times since August 2021, and there was a report that the NRF opened an office in Dushanbe in October that year. Shortly after Vafo’s visit to Dushanbe, Taliban sources in Balkh Province told the Pakistani-based Khorasan Diary website that Tajik authorities had banned the NRF, but the Tajik authorities stated that no such decision was made. Yatimov’s meeting with Vafo was not the first time the Tajik GKNB chief had met with Taliban representatives. In September 2024, Yatimov went to Kabul to hold security talks with Taliban officials, though the Tajik authorities never confirmed that meeting. Both parties are concerned about militants from the Islamic State of...

Rare Earth Diplomacy: Critical Minerals Set to Top Agenda at C5+1 Summit

The announcement of an upcoming C5+1 summit in Washington between the United States and the Central Asian republics has taken much of the regional and U.S. political establishment by surprise. A swift visit by U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan was seemingly necessary to coordinate the summit’s agenda. Notably, Kazakhstan appears prepared to play a leading role on one of the summit’s most pressing issues. The summit, scheduled for November 6 in Washington, was first revealed through media channels before being confirmed through official correspondence between Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and U.S. President Donald Trump. Uzbek media later confirmed the meeting, citing sources within the administration of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and this was followed by Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov. It is notable that shortly after Tokayev’s correspondence with Trump became public, the Kazakh president held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Officially, the two discussed Tokayev’s upcoming visit to Moscow. This was their second such call in less than two weeks, the previous taking place on October 14. There is speculation that the Washington summit may have been a key topic of discussion. During meetings in Tashkent with Gor and Landau - Uzbekistan being the first stop on their tour - Mirziyoyev reportedly discussed a broad set of topics. However, the issue of “critical materials,” particularly rare earth metals, stood out. It is increasingly clear that rare earths will be a central focus of Trump’s engagement with Central Asian leaders. [caption id="attachment_38242" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Sergio Gor and Christopher Landau at the Shymbulak ski resort in Almaty; image: Akorda[/caption] Trump has previously drawn attention for high-stakes diplomacy involving rare earth metals, including a controversial deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and later discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage. Most recently, during the first leg of his Asia tour, Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and concluded a rare earth metals agreement, despite the challenges associated with extracting these materials, which are often found underwater. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan appears well-positioned to take the lead in terms of rare earth elements. President Tokayev first proposed developing rare earth metal deposits in his September 2023 address, “The Economic Course of Fair Kazakhstan.” In 2024, Kazakh geologists identified 38 promising solid mineral deposits, including the Kuyrektykol site in the Karaganda region, which contains substantial reserves. Tokayev returned to the issue in January 2025, during an extended government meeting, criticizing the cabinet for delays and emphasizing Kazakhstan’s untapped potential in rare earth extraction and processing. In April, during the Central Asia-European Union summit, Tokayev met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who congratulated him on the discovery of a major deposit in Kazakhstan. The topic also featured at the Central Asia-Italy summit in May, where Tokayev proposed creating a regional research center to consolidate data on rare earth deposits across Central Asia. “The creation of joint ventures, technology transfer, and the localization...