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Energy Deficit

Alisher Sultanov Leaves Office After a Decade of Declining Gas Production in Uzbekistan

Alisher Sultanov was relieved of his post as presidential representative on energy security on December 16, ending some ten years of dubious performance as one of Uzbekistan’s top energy officials. Under Sultanov’s watch as head of the state oil and gas company and then as a top official in Uzbekistan’s Energy Ministry, the country’s oil and gas production decreased, and Uzbekistan went from being a gas exporter to an importer. A Career in the Gas and Oil Sector Sultanov started working in Uzbekistan’s energy sector in the mid-1990s and gradually made his way through the ranks at the state oil and gas company Uzbekneftegaz. In 2015, Sultanov became Uzbekneftegaz’s chairman, serving in that position until 2018. In 2017, Sultanov was appointed Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the fuel, energy, and industrial sector, and in February 2019, he was named Energy Minister. He stepped down as Energy Minister in April 2022, officially for health reasons, but by 2023 was back as presidential advisor on oil and gas, chemical, and energy matters, though that title was changed in July 2025 to the president’s representative on energy security. Stagnation and Decline Uzbekistan does not have large oil reserves. BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy has continually put Uzbekistan’s oil reserves at somewhere around 600-620 million barrels. Uzbekistan does have significant natural gas reserves of at least some 1.1 trillion cubic meters, however, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The country has been working with international partners to explore for new deposits, particularly in areas of the recently dried out Aral Sea. In 2011, Uzbekistan’s average oil production was some 80,000 barrels per day (bpd), and gas production for that year was some 56.6 billion cubic meters (bcm). Uzbekistan was still sourcing from many fields that had been producing since Uzbekistan was a Soviet republic, and it was not surprising that yields from these depleted fields started decreasing after 2011. Sultanov became head of Uzbekneftegaz in August 2015, and that year, oil production had already dropped to some 60,000 bpd and gas to some 53.6 bcm. Both fluctuated only a little over the next three years, ending 2018 at an average of 64,000 bpd and 58.3 bcm. The 2018 figure for gas was the peak production year of the 2011-2020 period, though it fell well short of the 66 bcm Uzbekneftegaz was predicting for 2018. After Sultanov was named Energy Minister in 2019, the figure for gas production fell significantly. In 2019, gas production was 57.5 bcm, but in 2020, only 47.1 bcm, though oil output held steady at 67,000 bpd and 61,000 bpd, respectively. Gas production increased slightly in 2021 to 50.9 bcm, but then dropped to 48.9 bcm in 2022. The decrease continued after Sultanov stepped down as Energy Minister in April 2022, plummeting to 44.2 bcm in 2023 and 42.2 bcm in 2024. With a rapidly growing population and expanding industrial sector, Uzbekistan’s domestic gas consumption was sharply increasing, rising from 43.6 bcm in 2020 to 54.6...

Electricity Supply

Rahmon Outlines Measures to Address Tajikistan’s Winter Power Shortages

President Emomali Rahmon has acknowledged that Tajikistan’s population continues to endure severe electricity rationing during the winter months, and has outlined steps the government is taking to alleviate the crisis. “We are fully aware of the challenges faced by the people of Tajikistan during the period of temporary restrictions on electricity supply,” Rahmon said in his annual address to parliament on December 16, adding that authorities are implementing all necessary measures to address the issue. Rahmon attributed the shortages primarily to rapid population growth and the expansion of industrial production, both of which have significantly increased domestic electricity consumption. He also cited unfavorable weather conditions, including below-average rainfall last autumn, which reduced water inflows into reservoirs that supply the country’s hydropower plants. He noted that since independence, 1.3 million new homes have been built to accommodate over 8.4 million people. In the past seven years alone, 2,600 new industrial enterprises have begun operations, further raising electricity demand. Despite these pressures, Tajikistan has steadily increased electricity production. Over the past decade, annual generation has risen by 7 billion kilowatt-hours, from 17.2 billion in 2015 to 24.2 billion in 2025, an increase of approximately 40%. However, domestic demand is projected to grow by an additional 31% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels. Over the past ten years, investments in the energy sector have added 1,017 megawatts to the country’s installed capacity. A further 200 megawatts were gained through the rehabilitation and modernization of existing plants. One of the most recent projects was the modernization of the Kairakkum Hydroelectric Power Plant, completed in November 2025, which increased its capacity from 114 megawatts to 174 megawatts. While Tajikistan possesses vast hydropower potential, it has long struggled with chronic energy shortages. In response, the government has prioritized large-scale hydropower projects, particularly the Rogun Dam and Hydropower Plant, which is expected to be central to achieving domestic energy security and establishing Tajikistan as a regional electricity exporter. Rahmon announced that the third generating unit of the Rogun plant is scheduled for commissioning in September 2027, marking a key milestone on the path to full energy independence. In parallel, construction has begun on two large solar power plants, each with a capacity of 250 megawatts, in the Sughd and Khatlon regions. Both facilities are expected to be operational by August 2026. He also emphasized the importance of improving energy efficiency alongside expanding generation capacity. Electricity losses remain high, exceeding 3 billion kilowatt-hours annually. Rahmon called for accelerating the rollout of a nationwide digital billing system, which he said has already reduced losses. The introduction of modern digital billing and payment technologies revealed that 30% to 40% of households were previously not paying for electricity. Since the system’s implementation, losses have declined. In the first 11 months of 2025, total electricity losses stood at approximately 3 billion kilowatt-hours, 500 million kilowatt-hours less than during the same period the previous year.

Independence Day

The Contested Legacy of Kazakhstan’s Independence Day: From Sovereignty to Unrest and Reinvention

On December 16, 2025, Kazakhstan marks the 34th anniversary of its independence. The story of this national holiday mirrors the nation’s own complex path toward sovereignty and statehood. A Difficult Legacy On December 16, 1991, Kazakhstan adopted the Law “On State Independence of the Republic of Kazakhstan,” officially becoming the last Soviet republic to leave the USSR. The date came at the tail end of the so-called “parade of sovereignties,” when other republics had already declared independence. This delay led to a popular saying: “Kazakhstan turned off the lights in the USSR.” In the early years of independence, the holiday was celebrated widely, often with several days off. Yet the date also evokes painful memories. Just five years earlier, in December 1986, the capital city of Alma-Ata (now Almaty) witnessed what are now known as Jeltoqsan köterılısı - the December Events. On December 16, 1986, the Communist Party of Kazakhstan abruptly dismissed First Secretary Dinmukhamed Konaev and replaced him with Gennady Kolbin, a party official from the Russian city of Ulyanovsk with no ties to the republic. This Moscow-imposed decision sparked protests by students and young people that turned violent. While the full causes and consequences remain partially unexplored, the uprising is widely seen as an early expression of resistance to Soviet central control and the imposition of non-Kazakh leadership. The protests were brutally suppressed. For several days, unrest continued in the city, with some incidents fueled by ethnic tensions. In the years since, the December Events have become symbolic of both state repression and the early stirrings of Kazakh nationalism. Because of the proximity of dates, many citizens continue to conflate the date of independence with the December Events. For years, the national holiday was therefore overshadowed by grief and division. Unrest in the Oil Region Independence Day was further marred in 2011 by violent unrest in the oil-rich Mangistau region after months of unresolved labor disputes. On December 16 of that year, striking workers from the OzenMunaiGas company in the town of Zhanaozen clashed with police after demanding higher wages. The protests escalated into riots, with government buildings, hotels, and vehicles set ablaze. ATMs were looted, and a state of emergency was declared. Official figures state that about 20 people were killed and over 100 were injured. The Zhanaozen tragedy underscored deep socioeconomic disparities, particularly in regions rich in resources but lacking infrastructure and basic services. From Old to New Kazakhstan Over time, Independence Day became closely associated with unrest and national trauma. Analysts suggest that full investigations into the December 1986 and 2011 events were hindered by the political legacy of Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first president. Nazarbayev held senior posts during the Soviet period and later presided over the country during the Zhanaozen crackdown. In June 2019, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev succeeded Nazarbayev as president and launched a platform of gradual political reform. However, his efforts were reportedly obstructed by entrenched elites aligned with the Nazarbayev era, often referred to as “Old Kazakhstan.” Public discontent boiled over again in January...

Media

Nomad TV: Russia’s Latest Media Venture in Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan has a new TV station. At first glance, it’s the kind of cozy, local news channel satirized in 2004’s Anchorman. The headline item on December 10th was the fact that it had snowed in Bishkek, with the on-screen reporter treading around the city asking residents whether they felt cold. “Not really,” is the general response, given that plummeting temperatures are hardly a new phenomenon in the Kyrgyz capital. “What kind of precautions did you take against the weather?” the reporter asks one gentleman. “Put on a hat and gloves,” comes the droll reply. This piece is followed by an interview with a representative of the city’s police service, advising people to tread carefully on the icy pavements. Similar soft news items follow: an interview on the progress of Asman eco-city on Lake Issyk Kul; the modernization of a factory in Bishkek; and the announcement of a new coach for the national football team. These are hardly stories to make waves. Indeed, most people in Bishkek are unaware of the new channel’s existence. “It hasn't been a major discussion point; the only presence that I felt is this huge, green box that has been installed on the central square,” Nurbek Bekmurzaev, the Central Asian editor of Global Voices, told The Times of Central Asia, referring to the broadcaster’s temporary studio at the heart of the city. Yet Nomad is one of the best-funded media outfits in the country, offering salaries twice as high as those paid by rival organizations. And, in one form or another, it seems clear that the money is coming from the Russian state. So why has the Kremlin, which is hardly underrepresented in Kyrgyzstan’s media sphere, decided to throw such sums at a local news station? [caption id="attachment_40853" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Nomad TV’s temporary studio on Ala-Too square in the heart of Bishkek; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] A Bold Start Nomad’s initial coverage was not so banal. On November 23, the channel began broadcasting with a cascade of high-profile interviews linked to Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Kyrgyzstan on November 25-27. This followed a lavish launch ceremony at the city’s opera house, attended by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, and the Kyrgyz deputy Prime Minister Edil Baisalov. Putin himself lauded the new channel in his speech on November 26, and gave its chief editor, Natalia Korolevich, an exclusive interview the following day. This followed a feverish autumn, which the broadcaster had spent poaching talent from newsrooms around Bishkek. This included Mirbek Moldabekov, a veteran broadcaster from the state television channel, UTRK; the head of Sputnik in Kyrgyzstan, Erkin Alimbekov; and his wife, Svetlana Akmatalieva, a journalist from the National TV and Radio Corporation. The channel’s producer is Anna Abakumova, a former RT journalist who gained fame reporting from Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine. These aggressive recruitment tactics have split the profession in Kyrgyzstan. Journalist Adil Turdukolov asserted in an interview with Exclusive.kz that anyone who has chosen to work for Nomad “is not particularly concerned with...

Diplomacy

Uzbekistan, Paraguay Deepen Ties During First-Ever Presidential Visit

Uzbekistan and Paraguay have agreed to enhance political and economic cooperation following high-level talks in Tashkent, according to the presidential press service. The meeting between Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Paraguayan President Santiago Peña took place at the Kuksaroy residence, with participation from both countries’ official delegations. Mirziyoyev welcomed his counterpart and highlighted the historical significance of the visit, noting it as the first time a president from a Latin American country has traveled to Uzbekistan. The visit is expected to usher in a new era of bilateral relations. The two leaders discussed expanding cooperation across several sectors. Talks focused on increasing mutual trade, strengthening business contacts, and initiating joint projects in agriculture, food production, the chemical industry, digital technologies, tourism, and sports. Cultural, educational, and humanitarian collaboration were also emphasized as priority areas. The sides also exchanged views on international and regional developments. Following the talks, Mirziyoyev and Peña signed a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to strengthening political dialogue and expanding practical cooperation. Uzbek media reported that two additional documents were signed in the presence of the presidents: a protocol concluding bilateral market-access negotiations related to Uzbekistan’s accession to the World Trade Organization, and a memorandum between the foreign ministries to establish a mechanism for political consultations. The meeting concluded with a symbolic gesture. The two presidents planted a tree on the Alley of Honored Guests at the Kuksaroy residence, symbolizing their intention to open a new chapter in Uzbekistan-Paraguay relations.

Neutrality

Turkmenistan Marks 30 Years of Neutrality

On December 12, 2025, Turkmenistan marks the 30th anniversary of a UN decision granting Turkmenistan the status of a neutral country. Defining what “permanent neutrality” means for Turkmenistan is impossible, as it is a flexible term used to justify a range of policies, both domestic and foreign. This vague special status has not provided many benefits, but has helped Turkmenistan’s leadership isolate the country and create one of the most bizarre and repressive forms of government in the world today. Last Item on the Day’s Agenda On Tuesday, December 12, 1995, the UN General Assembly’s (UNGA) 90th plenary meeting reconvened at 15:20 to consider items 57 to 81 on its agenda. Item 81 was the draft resolution on “permanent neutrality of Turkmenistan.” The UNGA president at that time, Freitas do Amaral, noted to the Assembly that the draft resolution “was adopted by the First Committee without a vote,” and asked if the Assembly wished “to do likewise.” The Assembly did, and after a few brief remarks about the next Assembly meeting on December 14, the session ended at 18:05. That is how the UN officially granted Turkmenistan the status of neutrality. A Great Event The passing of the resolution on Turkmenistan’s neutrality status might have been a case of going through the motions at the UN, but it was a huge event in Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan’s first president, Saparmurat Niyazov, had been campaigning internationally for his country to have “positive” neutrality status since 1992. After this was accomplished, Niyazov often proclaimed this special UN recognition as a great achievement for the country and for himself personally. [caption id="attachment_40725" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Ashgabat’s Independence Square, previously known as Neutrality Square and originally as Karl Marx Square; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] December 12 was quickly announced as a national holiday. On the first anniversary of the UN decision in 1996, the former Karl Marx Square in Ashgabat was renamed “Neutrality Square.” Shortly after, an olive branch motif was added to Turkmenistan’s national flag, symbolizing the country’s neutral status. In 1998, on the third anniversary of UN-recognized neutrality, the 75-meter-high Arch of Neutrality was unveiled in Ashgabat. A 12-meter gold statue of Niyazov that rotated to face the direction of the sun crowned the structure. Niyazov died in December 2006, and in 2010, the Arch of Neutrality was moved from the city center to the outskirts of the Turkmen capital and unveiled again on December 12, 2011. It has been undergoing renovation and will be unveiled yet again on the 30th anniversary of neutrality. [caption id="attachment_40726" align="aligncenter" width="2099"] Former-President Niyazov's likeness atop the Arch of Neutrality; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] In 2002, Niyazov pushed through a law changing the names of the months of the year and days of the week. December became “Bitaraplyk,” the Turkmen word for neutrality, and continued to officially be called that until 2008, when Niyazov’s successor finally revoked the changes and restored the traditional names. That successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, embraced the special permanent neutrality status and, in...