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War in Ukraine: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Tell Citizens to Step Up Safety

Some Central Asian countries are urging their nationals to consider leaving Ukraine as the war with Russian forces escalates there. “Due to the increased frequency of artillery shelling and airstrikes in Ukraine, the Embassy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Ukraine strongly advises its citizens to consider leaving areas close to active combat zones or leaving Ukraine altogether for safety purposes,” the embassy said on Telegram on Wednesday. It urged citizens “to take air raid warnings seriously, immediately seek shelter, adhere to personal safety measures, and follow the recommendations of official authorities.” Kazakh citizens can travel home from Ukraine by using land routes through Poland or Moldova, and then boarding a commercial flight, according to the embassy. It said a Schengen visa is required for entry into Poland and no visa is needed for Moldova. Citing its embassy in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “a massive attack was carried out on the territory of the Kyiv region using attack unmanned aerial vehicles” on Wednesday. The ministry recommended that Kyrgyz citizens currently in Ukraine “strengthen their personal security measures and, if necessary, leave the territory of Ukraine until the situation has fully stabilized.” The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv said it was closing on Wednesday as a precaution after receiving “specific information of a potential significant air attack” and that embassy employees were instructed to shelter in place. Some other Western embassies also closed temporarily. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the war has recently escalated. North Korean troops have deployed into ally Russia’s territory near the border, including in the Kursk region of Russia where Ukrainian troops have seized territory; the United States has allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied, longer-range missiles to attack targets in Russia; and Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued another round of warnings about the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, in an apparent effort to deter more Western support for Ukraine.

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Kazakhstan Abandons Universal Income Declaration Plan

Kazakhstan Scraps Universal Tax Declarations Amid Public Concerns In a surprising move, the Kazakh government has proposed canceling the universal tax declaration system set to take effect in 2025. The decision, aimed at alleviating public anxiety amid worsening economic conditions, will exempt over 90% of the population from filing declarations. Experts argue that this adjustment is necessary and practical, as the reform would otherwise add unnecessary strain on taxpayers without significantly benefiting state revenues. Public Backlash and Policy Reassessment The Universal Declaration initiative was intended to include approximately 8 million additional citizens in 2025, encompassing private sector employees, pensioners, and students. However, widespread public concern about the burden on taxpayers and tax authorities prompted a reevaluation. Finance Minister Madi Takiyev announced the exemption on November 19, citing the country's advanced digital infrastructure, which already tracks key financial data. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov echoed these sentiments, directing the Ministries of Finance, National Economy, and Justice to draft legislative amendments within three days. He emphasized that the reform had “caused concern of the population, which was brought to the attention of the head of state.” He added that a widespread income declaration is unnecessary because the databases of state agencies in Kazakhstan are "highly digitized." Streamlined Tax Obligations The revised approach retains declaration requirements for specific groups, including: Citizens with assets abroad. Individuals making significant purchases (exceeding 74 million KZT, or approximately $149,000, in 2024). Those receiving income are subject to independent taxation. Voluntary declarations will remain an option for all citizens. A Phased Reform The universal declaration system began in 2021 and was implemented in stages. Initially, it targeted government officials and their spouses. The requirement extended to public sector employees and the quasi-public sector in subsequent phases. By 2024, business leaders, entrepreneurs, and their spouses were included. The final stage, which aimed to include the broader population, faced criticism for being outdated in the digital era. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev acknowledged this, stating, “It is planned that about 8 million more people will submit declarations next year. However, we should consider that the concept of universal income declaration was adopted 14 years ago. During this time, the country has made significant progress in digitalization and fintech. Databases of various government agencies have been integrated. Financial and tax control has been strengthened. Given these large-scale changes, the question arises as to whether it is advisable for citizens falling under the fourth and final stage to submit declarations. The government needs to work out a solution to this.” Expert Analysis Political scientist Gaziz Abishev highlighted the effectiveness of the reform's earlier stages, which targeted those most likely to influence public funds or earn significant income. “The first three stages have already included bureaucrats, civil servants, quasi-public sector employees, and businesspeople. Everyone who manages public funds or earns a considerable income within Kazakhstan’s economy has already been required to report and will continue to submit declarations,” Abishev explained. The fourth stage, set to include around 8 million additional citizens, drew criticism for its lack...

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Kazakhstan and Serbia Strengthen Ties Despite Different Geopolitical Paths

Serbian President Vucic (54) might physically resemble Kazakh leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (71), but the geopolitical positions of Sebia and Kazakhstan could not be more different. While the Balkan nation – a European Union candidate since 2012 – remains in the EU’s “eternal waiting room”, the Central Asian country – a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union – seems to have found a delicate balance between Russia, China, and the West. Those differences, however, have not prevented Serbia and Kazakhstan from strengthening their bilateral ties. Over the past six months, the two countries have been actively preparing for Tokayev’s trip to Serbia. This year, he spoke by phone with Vucic twice, while various Serbian and Kazakh officials held several meetings. On November 18-19, Tokayev finally visited the Southeastern European nation, where he met with his Serbian counterpart. According to the Kazakh leader, they discussed strengthening trade and economic relations and bilateral partnerships between the two nations. “It is essential that we develop cooperation. We had constructive talks and reached important deals,” Tokayev stressed. During his visit to the Balkan country, Serbian and Kazakh ministers signed several bilateral agreements. One of them is a 2025 plan on military cooperation. It is, therefore, no surprise that, following the talks in Belgrade, Vucic and Tokayev attended an exhibition of arms and military equipment at the Batajnica military airport near the Serbian capital. Indeed, military ties seem to be an important aspect of the Serbian-Kazakh relationship. Back in 2017, the two nations signed a memorandum of understanding in the field of military-technical collaboration. Six years later, in November 2023, Kazakhstan and Serbia inked intergovernmental agreements on military-technical cooperation, while in June of this year Serbian and Kazakh defense ministers discussed in Astana military relations between the two countries. Also, in September, Roman Vassilenko, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, announced that Belgrade and Astana plan то expand cooperation in the defense industry. It remains to be seen how Moscow – Astana’s nominal ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – will react to Kazakhstan’s ambitions to deepen military ties with Serbia – a nominally neutral country that has indirectly supplied Ukraine with $885 million worth of weapons. Despite being in different geopolitical positions, Serbia and Kazakhstan seem to share the same approach regarding Ukraine. Both nations support the Eastern European country’s territorial integrity, while trying to preserve relatively good relations with the Kremlin. At the same time, they support each other’s territorial integrity, which is particularly important for Serbia given that Kazakhstan does not recognize the 2008 unilateral independence of Kosovo. In 2022, sitting next to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tokayev said that if the right to self-determination is put into practice worldwide, then there will be over 600 countries instead of the 193 states which are currently members of the United Nations. “For this reason, we do not recognize either Taiwan, or Kosovo, or South Ossetia, or Abkhazia… This principle will also be applied to quasi-state territories, which, in our opinion, are Lugansk and...

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Caspian Sea Water Decline Requires Urgent Action, Says UNEP Chief

By the end of this century, the water levels of the Caspian Sea could drop by up to 18 meters, a decline that would devastate ecosystems and species, threaten livelihoods, and jeopardize food security and regional stability. Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), highlighted this concern during the event, “Caspian Sea Water Decline in Light of Climate Change” at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 18. According to Andersen, the Caspian Sea, the largest enclosed body of water on Earth, “is under siege from the triple planetary crisis: the crisis of climate change, the crisis of nature, land and biodiversity loss, and the crisis of pollution and waste.” Andersen warned that without urgent action, this environmental and human crisis may result in as many as five million people being displaced from the Caspian basin by the middle of the century. [caption id="attachment_25708" align="aligncenter" width="722"] Inger Andersun; image: UNEP[/caption] The UNEP chief mentioned the impacts of the Caspian crisis: declining fisheries, salinization threatening agriculture, and the critically endangered Caspian seal — a species found nowhere else on Earth — facing extinction. Andersen emphasized the critical importance of the Tehran Convention — “the cornerstone for regional cooperation on the Caspian Sea.” The Framework Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea (Tehran Convention) was signed by the five Caspian littoral states — Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan — in 2003 and entered into force in August 2006 after being ratified by all five governments. [caption id="attachment_25706" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Aktau, Kazakhstan; image: TCA, Ola Fiedorczuk[/caption] The Tehran Convention “provides a platform to align our efforts, to unite science and policy, and to prioritize sustainable development across this unique region. As the interim Secretariat of the Tehran Convention, UNEP is proud to support these vital efforts and remains firm in its commitment to providing technical expertise, fostering collaboration, and supporting innovative financing mechanisms to address this urgent challenge,” said Andersen, emphasizing that robust monitoring and predictive models are essential to understanding and managing the drivers of Caspian water level changes. “Science must inform every decision we take, whether on climate adaptation, biodiversity protection or pollution control,” Andersen stated, calling for regional cooperation to be strengthened. “The challenges the Caspian faces transcend borders. Solutions must do the same. Through trans-boundary collaboration, we can craft integrated solutions that safeguard ecosystems, support livelihoods, and promote equitable economic growth,” she stated. The Times of Central Asia earlier reported that the abundant floodwater in April-May 2024 raised Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea water level by over a meter. On July 1, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced that the water level in the northeastern part of the Caspian Sea had risen by 119 cm since the beginning of 2024. The COP29 summit has been widely criticized for its "theatrics," "slow progress," and handing out the "red carpet" treatment to fossil fuel bosses.

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Out With the Old and in With the New: From Politicians to Felons – Part Two

The end of the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s era coincided with a wave of mass protests across the country. The widely-accepted cause was the death of five children in a fire in a dilapidated annex to a private house, the like of which there are many in the suburbs of Astana. This tragedy occurred on the night of February 4, 2019, when the girls, with ages ranging from a baby to twelve years old, were left home alone. The event sparked furious complaints from mothers of children across the country, and on March 19 of the same year, Nazarbayev resigned, handing power to the next in the constitutional hierarchy, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the speaker of the Senate (Kazakhstan's upper house of parliament). High-profile cases of the transition period From that moment until the events of January 2022, the country went through a transitional period, which is often spoken of as having been a time of dual power. By analogy with the “Kremlin Towers” (a popular theory about clans in Vladimir Putin's Russia being engaged in an irreconcilable struggle for resources and influence), the new president's entourage began to be called “Akorda” - after the head of state's residence in Astana. Supporters of Nazarbayev and the idea of his return to the presidency, meanwhile, were known as the “Library” – a reference to the Library of the First President. It was believed that the officials Tokayev inherited from his predecessor were more likely to run reports to the Library than to the Akorda. This division serves to explain how the new president was bound in his ability to implement changes. Tokayev initially announced a course of political, economic and social reforms, but only the latter were implemented, while the rest were sabotaged. Even support from the general public, which Tokayev managed to garner in the National Council of Public Trust, did not help matters.Even under such constraints, however, it was possible to begin a purge of the establishment. For example, in 2020, the country was shaken by the first high-profile criminal case under Tokayev, when Bulat Bakauov, akim of the Pavlodar region and a bellwether of high-profile scandals under Nazarbayev, was accused of abusing his authority and arrested. However, the influence of Nazarbayev's entourage remained strong, so the sentence handed down to the former Akim turned out to be a meagre restriction of freedom for 3.5 years. The court obliged Bakauov to refrain from leaving his residence and regularly report to the probation service. In addition, Bakauov was obliged to engage in a hundred hours of public labor, ordered to return $10,000, and banned from holding public office. In the same year, there was a glimmer of hope that the former Akim of Almaty, Bauyrzhan Baibek - who was elevated to the height of political power by his father's childhood friendship with Nursultan Nazarbayev – would be held to account. Urban legends still circulate about the illegal earnings of Baibek and his team from the reconstruction of the center of...

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In the Wake of Bishimbayev: From Politicians to Felons – Part One

Eight days ago, a scandal shook Kazakhstani society: Kuandyk Bishimbayev allegedly escaped from the penal colony where he was serving his sentence. Bishimbayev is a former high-ranking official of the government of Nursultan Nazarbayev's era, who was sentenced to 24 years in prison for the brutal murder of his wife. The Interior Ministry's Criminal Correctional System Committee immediately denied this information and said that a criminal case had been opened over the dissemination of this misinformation. This is not the first time Bishimbayev has become a resident of a penal colony. In 2017, as the Minister of National Economy of Kazakhstan, he was arrested on suspicion of large-scale bribery and embezzlement. In 2018, he was sentenced to a ten-year term with the confiscation of property and deprivation of the right to hold public office for the rest of his life. However, he was released on parole in 2019. Kazakhstan has been shaken by Bishimbayev's new crime. The trial, which was broadcast live online for the first time in the country's history, was watched by millions of citizens, not only within the Republic, but also abroad in other post-Soviet countries, and even in the West. However, this is not the first and, in all likelihood, not the last sensational case in which a former high-ranking official becomes a defendant. The long list of convicted ministers and akims can be divided chronologically into three parts: the Nazarbayev era, the transition period, and the so-called “New Kazakhstan,” which started after the January Events - the failed coup in 2022. This article discusses the most notorious court cases from each of these periods. Akezhan Kazhegeldin Former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin was a politician known not only in Kazakhstan, but also in the West. He led the Government of Kazakhstan from 1994 to 1997. After falling into disfavor, in 1998 he attempted to challenge Nazarbayev in the upcoming presidential election. Kazhegeldin was not allowed to participate and had to leave Kazakhstan under the pretense of receiving medical treatment in Switzerland for unspecified health problems. In 1999, Kazhegeldin was put on an international wanted list, and in 2001 he was found guilty in absentia by the Supreme Court of Kazakhstan of abuse of power and authority, extortion and repeated bribes of millions of dollars, illegal acquisitions, the storage and transfer of weapons and ammunition, and tax evasion. Kazhegeldin was sentenced to ten years in prison, but has not returned to the country since. He continued to influence Kazakhstan's domestic politics from abroad until 2001 through the Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan, which he organized for this purpose. It was alleged that Kazhegeldin received kickbacks from a contract awarded to Tractebel in 1996 to run Almaty's electric company and power grid. A year later, the Belgian company also won a concession to manage gas pipelines in the south and west of Kazakhstan. In the U.S., meanwhile, the DOJ investigated claims Kazhegeldin received illegal payments of $6 million as part of a bribery scandal known as ‘Kazakhgate’....