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Middle Corridor

How the Shrinking Caspian Sea Affects the Middle Corridor’s Potential

Paradoxically, the Caspian Sea is becoming one of Eurasia’s most important transport hubs at a time when its falling water level is creating growing constraints on navigation. As sanctions disrupt traditional trade routes through Russia, countries are investing in the Middle Corridor as an alternative link between Asia and Europe. Yet the continuing decline in sea level is limiting shipping capacity and increasing the risks and costs associated with long-term infrastructure projects. The first Caspian Environmental Summit, held in Turkmenistan on October 9, 2026, drew attention to the scale of these changes. Between 2000 and 2025, the Caspian Sea shrank by more than 16,000 square kilometers, while in some areas the shoreline receded by tens of kilometers. How the Caspian’s Falling Water Level Affects Freight The Middle Corridor, linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe, is seen as a promising route for diversifying international trade. Its development can reduce shippers’ dependence on individual transport routes and improve economic ties among countries in the region. According to the World Bank’s latest study, more than $25 billion in investment in the corridor’s core physical infrastructure will be needed through 2040. An additional $30 billion could be required for enabling infrastructure and services. The bank estimates that if infrastructure investment is combined with institutional reforms, freight volumes along the corridor could quadruple and travel times could fall by about two-thirds by 2040. A study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) notes that insufficient depths are already preventing vessels from being fully loaded, reducing transport efficiency and increasing costs. Large-scale dredging was carried out at the Port of Kuryk in 2024. Over four months, around one million cubic meters of material were removed, and the depth of the operational port area was increased to 7–8 meters, according to the port operator. This made it possible to load vessels to full capacity. Meanwhile, major dredging work is underway at Aktau, where 1.3 million cubic meters of material are to be removed to increase water depths to 6–7 meters. The work is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. Dredging, however, can only maintain the operation of individual port facilities, while further declines in the sea level may require repeated work or the reconstruction of berths. Where draft restrictions prevent full loading, transport companies may need to make more voyages to carry the same volume of cargo, increasing spending on fuel, crews, maintenance, and port operations. Constraints on the maritime section can also lead to delays for railcars and containers and disrupt transshipment schedules. These disruptions reduce the predictability of deliveries along the entire route. Similar problems are emerging on the western coast of the Caspian. Falling water levels are reducing vessel cargo capacity at Azerbaijani ports and oil terminals and requiring additional dredging. Infrastructure for Decades Ahead According to the OECD study, which cites World Bank climate projections, under a high-emissions scenario in which the Caspian water level falls by about five meters between...

C5+1

Central Asian States Set Out Priorities After Rubio Talks in Samarkand

Central Asian governments backed closer cooperation on mineral processing and transport at the October 19 C5+1 meeting in Samarkand. Separate talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio covered possible aircraft purchases for Kyrgyzstan and further diplomatic engagement with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Uzbekistan announced a $12 billion package of agreements and prospective initiatives during the visit. For the other four Central Asian participants, the published accounts centered largely on cooperation priorities and follow-up discussions. The gathering followed the November 2025 White House summit and accompanied Uzbekistan’s signing of the Artemis Accords. It brought Rubio together with all five Central Asian foreign ministers, combining regional discussions with separate bilateral meetings. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi discussed implementation of earlier presidential agreements with Rubio. The talks addressed attracting American investment and technology, with energy and critical minerals among the priorities. Washington also expressed interest in cooperation on artificial intelligence and communications infrastructure. According to Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry, Rubio expressed interest in visiting Kazakhstan after the December G20 summit in Miami. Kyrgyzstan’s talks included immediate obstacles to closer relations. Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev raised sanctions policy and visa restrictions with Rubio, alongside opportunities for American investment. The Kyrgyz side sought solutions that would facilitate educational and business exchanges. Presidential special representative Bakyt Sydykov briefed the U.S. delegation on Kyrgyzstan’s sanctions-related efforts, with Bishkek reaffirming its willingness to work with Washington to prevent sanctions circumvention. In a separate meeting, Kulubaev discussed possible Boeing aircraft deliveries to Kyrgyz airlines with company vice president Michael Schnabel. Financing options included possible involvement by the U.S. Export-Import Bank. The discussions also covered aircraft maintenance and aviation infrastructure. Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin discussed expanding trade and investment with Rubio. The ministry’s account also described an exchange on regional security and stability in Central Asia. Turkmenistan reported a more specific diplomatic follow-up. Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov and Rubio outlined a schedule of further meetings and political consultations. U.S. special envoy Sergio Gor also attended the talks. The shared C5+1 statement set out the broader economic agenda. The six governments supported further development of the Trans-Caspian Trade Route and more closely aligned customs procedures. They also backed stronger industrial cooperation within Central Asia. On minerals, the statement envisaged expanded extraction and processing, alongside more production of higher-value goods within the region. It also supported exchanging expertise on geological data. These were collective policy intentions, without country-by-country financing allocations or project completion dates. Security commitments covered stronger border protection and counterterrorism cooperation, alongside efforts against transnational crime. The governments also supported practical cooperation on nuclear security and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

C5+1

Uzbekistan Signs Space Accords as Rubio Opens Samarkand Talks

Uzbekistan joined the U.S.-led Artemis Accords on October 19 as Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks in Samarkand. The signing accompanied the first Enhanced Strategic Partnership Dialogue between the two countries, with critical minerals among the priorities. Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov announced the signing after bilateral talks with Rubio. He said Uzbekistan had become the 77th country to join the framework for peaceful space exploration. Saidov said accession would support closer cooperation with NASA and other participating space agencies. He identified training for Uzbek specialists and access to space technologies as potential benefits. Established in 2020, the Artemis Accords set out principles for civilian space exploration. Signatories commit to peaceful operations and greater transparency, including sharing scientific data. The framework also addresses interference between missions and the preservation of historic sites in space. NASA describes the accords as nonbinding principles. Posting on X, Rubio confirmed he had met all five Central Asian foreign ministers during the C5+1 gathering. He said cooperation would expand commercial opportunities and strengthen regional security. American businesses also joined the visit as Washington seeks deeper economic ties across Central Asia. The visit follows the November 2025 White House summit, where Trump hosted all five Central Asian presidents. That meeting gave the partnership a stronger commercial focus, with aircraft orders and minerals projects featuring prominently. Samarkand brings ministers and businesses together to advance that agenda. The strategic dialogue focused on implementing agreements reached by the countries’ leaders and expanding economic cooperation. Saidov said the discussions covered energy and advanced technologies, alongside critical minerals. Education and security cooperation were also on the agenda. Rubio said separately that the talks addressed infrastructure and space cooperation, as well as engagement through C5+1, which brings together the United States and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In a separate meeting with Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi, Rubio reaffirmed plans to expand economic and security cooperation. He thanked Kazakhstan for supporting “President Trump’s peace initiatives, including the Abraham Accords.” Speaking to reporters in Samarkand, Rubio said nearly 300 American businesses were represented, and that agreements potentially worth billions of dollars were under discussion. He presented the visit as the start of deeper U.S. economic engagement with Central Asia. “I think we’ll have some concrete deals to announce,” he said, according to Euronews. A final list of agreements and their value had not been circulated at the time of those remarks. Rubio identified critical minerals as a priority, arguing that concentrated supplies created risks for countries dependent on them. "This is not about coming here to say, stop talking to somebody else or stop working with some other country," he said. Days earlier, at the October 15 summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia in Baku, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed a transport strategy spanning several international initiatives. His proposal included China’s Belt and Road and the planned Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) through Armenia. It illustrated the region’s pursuit of transport links involving...

Air Pollution

Air Pollution in Central Asia: Why Winter Smog Persists in Almaty, Bishkek, and Tashkent

Almaty is investing 325.9 billion tenge (about $720 million) in converting a coal-fired power plant to natural gas, but the plant will continue burning coal for several more years. Bishkek is restricting certain types of coal while maintaining supplies of permitted fuel for winter. Tashkent reported lower pollution over much of the year, though early October brought a sharp increase in harmful particles. Across these three Central Asian cities, winter smog remains a problem as the heating season begins. According to World Bank estimates, concentrations of fine particulate matter, known as PM2.5, in major Central Asian cities frequently exceed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines by six to twelve times, particularly in winter. PM2.5 particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and increase the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. During colder months, emissions from heating and transportation accumulate near the ground. When winds are weak and temperature inversions occur, polluted air can remain trapped over a city for several days. Almaty: Gas Conversion, Coal Remains Almaty's heating season began on October 9, with schools and hospitals connected first, followed by residential buildings on October 10. By then, the modernization of CHP-2, the city's largest coal-fired heating plant and one of its biggest sources of industrial emissions, had yet to be completed. According to project estimates, converting the plant to natural gas should reduce annual emissions of harmful substances from 37,300 tons to 2,700 tons. However, those reductions will not be achieved immediately after the new equipment begins operating. Environmental assessment documents cited by Kursiv indicate that coal-fired boilers and turbines will continue operating alongside gas-fired units in 2027–2029 during commissioning and periods of peak winter demand. The documents also envisage keeping coal-fired equipment in operation into the 2030s to safeguard energy supplies in case of gas shortages. Vehicle exhaust is another major problem for Almaty. In April, the city introduced a pilot low-emission zone (LEZ) in its center. Until the end of the year, the zone is operating without entry fees, fines, or traffic restrictions. Separately, citywide emissions checks have been underway since the beginning of 2026. By late August, inspectors had tested 5,496 vehicles and found 1,301 exceeding emissions limits, nearly a quarter of those checked. Violations detected during citywide inspections can result in penalties. Bishkek: Coal Restrictions, but No Easy Alternative In Bishkek, the main cause of winter smog is heating in private homes. Residential heating accounts for approximately 29% of air pollution, transportation for 27%, and dust for 21%. Combined emissions from the main thermal power plant and smaller boiler houses account for 11%, according to international research cited by the city administration. In October 2025, the municipal authorities imposed restrictions on the sale, storage, and use of fine coal in Bishkek. They also stepped up inspections targeting waste burning and began converting some boiler houses to cleaner fuels. On October 1, 2026, the mayor's office announced plans to maintain adequate supplies of coal meeting quality standards at fuel depots across the city. For many private residents,...

Foreign Investment

Citibank Kazakhstan Chairperson Sees Opportunities for U.S.-Central Asia Collaboration

Foreign investors are looking outside Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector. But turning that interest into investment will require predictable regulations and stronger cross-border connections, according to Saule Zhakayeva, chairperson of Citibank Kazakhstan’s management board and president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan (AmCham). Citi has operated in Kazakhstan since 1994, when it opened a representative office in Almaty. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Zhakayeva discussed the country’s investment climate and its role as a regional business hub. She also addressed the future of economic relations between the United States and Kazakhstan. TCA: How is foreign investor interest in Central Asia evolving, and which of Kazakhstan’s strengths are already translating into investment? Where do you see the strongest commercial opportunities over the next three to five years, and what would help turn untapped potential into committed capital? Zhakayeva: Investors today are looking for markets that combine economic stability, access to natural resources, strategic geography, and long-term growth potential. Kazakhstan offers each of these attributes. The country has established itself as the largest economy in Central Asia, maintains a relatively strong institutional framework, and continues to pursue reforms aimed at improving the investment climate. Most notably, investor interest is becoming increasingly diversified. Historically, foreign investment was concentrated primarily in oil and gas. Today, we see growing interest in transportation and logistics, renewable energy, critical minerals, digital infrastructure, financial services, manufacturing, and data-related investments. This growing interest is also reflected in the increasing level of engagement between international investors and Kazakhstan. As President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan, I have seen firsthand the strong momentum in U.S.-Kazakhstan business relations. Throughout 2026, Kazakhstan has hosted a growing number of high-level business engagements involving senior representatives of American companies and institutions, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Business Mission to Kazakhstan and other executive-level dialogues focused on investment, trade, digital transformation, energy, and infrastructure. AmCham Kazakhstan also led its first business delegation to Washington, D.C., bringing member companies together to strengthen bilateral economic ties, promote Kazakhstan's investment opportunities, and advocate for deeper economic cooperation. These activities underscore the growing recognition of Kazakhstan and Central Asia as strategically important destinations for long-term investment and commercial cooperation. More importantly, they are beginning to translate into tangible outcomes. For example, in 2026, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced plans to explore up to $700 million in financing opportunities to support the development of Kazakhstan's critical minerals sector. Kazakhstan's location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia has become increasingly important as global companies diversify supply chains and seek alternative trade routes. The development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route is further strengthening Kazakhstan's role in regional and global commerce, creating opportunities far beyond traditional sectors. Similar dynamics are being observed across the region, where alternative trade routes, logistics investments, and infrastructure development are becoming increasingly important to global investors. We are also seeing growing international interest in strategic sectors linked to global energy security and the energy transition....

CICA

CICA’s Next Chapter in Asian Cooperation

At the October 15 summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Baku, Kazakhstan proposed a mechanism for preventive diplomacy to address disputes before they escalate. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said the mechanism would give each member state a role in decision-making and help translate political commitments into coordinated action. If adopted, the proposal could increase Astana’s influence among Asia’s larger powers by making its founding initiative more enduring. Influence Through an Asian Agenda Kazakhstan already coordinates CICA’s military-political dimension, working with Türkiye on military exchanges, training-center visits, and seminars that include mediation. Kazakhstan could draw on these exchanges when seeking members’ agreement on a mandate for preventive diplomacy. They provide experience of organizing cooperation in a politically sensitive field, although a standing role in addressing emerging disputes would require a separate political agreement defining what members authorize the mechanism to do. The Think Tank Forum offers another example of Kazakhstan’s influence over CICA’s institutional development. China initiated the Forum in 2014; its transformation into a permanent CICA advisory body followed in October 2021, when member states acted on Tokayev’s initiative. Azerbaijan hosted the first meeting outside China in September 2025, at which the handover to the Indian Council of World Affairs was announced; the latter now chairs the Forum for 2026–2027. Kazakhstan thus helped turn a Chinese initiative into a permanent CICA advisory body that Azerbaijani and Indian institutions subsequently helped sustain. China also contributes funding and seconded personnel to the Secretariat; Kazakhstan can build influence by securing agreement on standing arrangements through which other members pursue their priorities. At the Baku summit, Tokayev also proposed establishing a CICA Water Partnership to promote joint research, technology exchange, and water-saving measures. He suggested that Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan could jointly advance a proposal for an International Water Organization under the United Nations. These proposals could give Kazakhstan a role in shaping cooperation on water security within CICA and, through a joint regional initiative, at the UN. Kazakhstan's Foundational Role in CICA's Development Kazakhstan conceived CICA in 1992 and has led its institutional development, including the effort to transform it into a full-fledged international organization. The initiative has a constituency extending well beyond Central Asia. Fifteen states adopted CICA’s first founding declaration in 1999. With Laos’s accession at Baku, CICA now has 29 members, ranging from China, India, Pakistan, and Russia to Iran, Israel, and South Korea. The 2022 Astana summit launched CICA’s transformation into a full-fledged international organization. The Road Map endorsed by member states in 2023 specified reforms through which to pursue that transformation. The reforms cover the Charter, implementation of confidence-building measures, procedural rules, and the Secretariat’s organization. These changes affect CICA’s capacity to carry agreements forward between high-level meetings. Within CICA, the consensus rule makes collective agreement a condition both of institutional change and of policy coordination. Kazakhstan thus has an interest in the procedures through which future cooperation will be organized. Cambodia’s pre-summit ratification of the convention on the Secretariat’s...