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President Tokayev

Kazakhstan Court Ruling Clears Legal Path for Tokayev to Seek Another Term

Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Court has ruled that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev may seek another term under the country’s 2026 Constitution, effectively resetting the count created under the previous Basic Law while leaving the single seven-year presidential term formally in place. The ruling, issued on July 7 after Tokayev’s request, addressed whether people who held senior offices under the 1995 Constitution could be elected or appointed to those posts under the new Basic Law, adopted in a March 15 referendum and in force since July 1. The offices covered include the president, the chair and judges of the Constitutional Court, the chair of the Supreme Court, and the prosecutor general. The court said restrictions in the 2026 Constitution are linked only to elections and appointments made under the new constitutional order and laws adopted on its basis. It said the new Constitution contains no provision requiring terms, elections, or appointments under the 1995 Basic Law to be counted when the new limits are applied. The court’s official interpretation says people who held those offices under the 1995 Constitution “may be elected or appointed to the corresponding positions after the 2026 Constitution enters into force.” In practical terms, the ruling removes the main legal barrier that had been assumed to prevent Tokayev from appearing on the presidential ballot again. Tokayev was elected in November 2022 to what was presented as a single, non-renewable seven-year term ending in 2029. He has not announced another run, and the ruling does not set a timetable for a presidential election. Speculation has also continued over whether Tokayev could seek a future international role, including as UN secretary-general. According to political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev, the Constitutional Court’s clarification resolves a strategic issue over the president’s term of office. He recalled that Tokayev’s 2022 election followed an earlier constitutional reform that introduced the single seven-year presidential term. A later dilemma emerged because the previous constitutional rules would have required elections to be held in December 2028, almost a year before the end of the seven-year mandate. “In the new Constitution, these formulations were changed, but a new question emerged: does the new Constitution require a review of terms in connection with the reset of political institutions? The text itself contained no relevant provisions. At a press briefing on voting day, Tokayev said the next elections would be held in 2029,” Ashimbayev said, adding that Tokayev’s appeal showed that the issue would be handled through constitutional procedure rather than political assumption. The court, he said, indicated that adoption of the new Constitution does not mean the automatic extension of norms contained in the old Constitution or decisions adopted on its basis. “Thus, the single seven-year term is confirmed, but it will be counted from the moment elections are held. The Constitution, however, prohibits holding presidential and parliamentary elections at the same time, which moves the presidential issue to the autumn,” Ashimbayev said. “It is clear that this is about the right, not the obligation, of the incumbent head of state to...

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team covers a new election date being set in Kazakhstan, with the country's largest party staying off the ballot, rare protests in Turkmenistan over blackouts and economic frustration, the removal of one of Ashgabat's most important religious figures, renewed clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, fuel shortages hitting much of Central Asia, and border swap deals that have seen thousands of people suddenly finding themselves in a new country. Before then turning to our main story this week, where the dramatic end to the Kamchybek Tashiev trials has delivered one of the biggest moments in Kyrgyz politics this year. Special guest: Medet Tulegenov (Director of the Silk Road Research Center).

United States

Tokayev Congratulates Trump as Kazakhstan Marks America’s 250th Independence Anniversary

Tokayev Congratulates Trump as Kazakhstan Marks America’s 250th Independence Anniversary ASTANA — President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev congratulated U.S. President Donald Trump on the 250th anniversary of the independence of the United States, calling the milestone a symbol of the American people’s enduring commitment to freedom, equality and justice. In his message, Tokayev noted Trump’s personal contribution to the continued development of Kazakh-American relations and reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s readiness to further strengthen the expanded strategic partnership between the two countries. The Kazakh leader wished Trump success in his state duties and extended wishes of well-being and prosperity to the American people. The congratulatory message came as Kazakhstan joined U.S. Independence Day commemorations marking America’s semiquincentennial. In a separate celebration of the bilateral relationship, the U.S. Embassy in Kazakhstan announced that several prominent landmarks would be illuminated in honor of America’s 250th anniversary. The buildings include Astana’s Nur Alem sphere and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy building, as well as Almaty’s Kok-Tobe tower. The U.S. embassy described the illumination as a symbol of the U.S.-Kazakhstan relationship, noting that the anniversary also coincides with 35 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries. [caption id="attachment_51530" align="alignnone" width="2560"] Nur Alem Sphere and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy building in Astana, July 4, 2026[/caption] The coordinated gestures underscored the steady growth of ties between Astana and Washington, which have expanded across diplomacy, trade, investment, energy, security and people-to-people contacts since Kazakhstan’s independence. For Kazakhstan, the anniversary offered an opportunity to recognize a historic American milestone while also highlighting the durability of its own partnership with the United States. Together, Tokayev’s message and the illumination of landmark buildings in Astana and Almaty placed Kazakhstan among the countries marking the United States’ 250th Independence Day through official greetings and public displays of friendship.

Political Memory

Opinion: The Specter Is Back – A Kazakh Warning to America

I was educated and began my career under Soviet communism in Kazakhstan. For many Americans, communism may sound like a policy argument. For us, it is also family memory — famine, confiscation, repression, camps and fear, all justified in the language of equality and justice. When communism returns to the American political debate, people from Kazakhstan listen carefully. “A specter is haunting Europe, the specter of communism.” That is how The Communist Manifesto by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels began in 1848. Nearly two centuries later, the specter has not disappeared. It has changed its vocabulary, its political costumes and its geography. But the old temptation remains. It promises justice by concentrating power. In late June, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that communism was the greatest threat to the United States, greater, he said, than World War I, World War II, Pearl Harbor, or September 11. His language was characteristically blunt. Critics were right to say that democratic socialism is not the same thing as Soviet communism, and that the word “communist” should not be used carelessly in ordinary partisan debate. Still, the historical concern behind the warning should not be dismissed. Not every welfare program is communism. Not every democratic socialist is a Bolshevik. Every modern state helps its citizens in some form. The real question is when help becomes control. When does compassion become coercion? When does the state begin claiming the right to decide prices, property, production, speech and moral legitimacy in the name of “the people”? People who lived under communism know the danger. Why a Kazakh Voice Belongs in This Debate For an outside observer, it may seem strange that socialism and communism are again being debated in the United States, the stronghold of advanced capitalism, as Soviet theorists once described it. Yet the explanation is not mysterious. Congressional elections are approaching. Recent primary victories by candidates who identify with democratic socialism have brought these questions back into mainstream American politics. Of course, this does not mean the United States is on the eve of a Bolshevik revolution. America has elections, courts, private property, constitutional limits, and a free press. The Soviet Union had none of these in any meaningful sense. That distinction should be kept clear. But the first words of any political movement should be taken seriously. The early promises are usually humane. They speak of fairness, dignity, affordability, workers, tenants, food, and peace. Only later does society discover how much power must be handed to the state to make those promises real. The Democratic Socialists of America describes itself as the largest socialist organization in the United States and says working people should run “both the economy and society democratically” to meet human needs rather than profits. To many Americans, that may sound compassionate. To those of us trained in Marxist-Leninist doctrine, it also sounds familiar. I am not a political scientist or a specialist in party-building. I am simply a person who, because of my age, studied under the communists and...

Gender Quotas

Kazakhstan’s New Kurultai Elections: What the 30% Quota Could Mean for Women in Parliament

Kazakhstan’s new Constitution entered into force on July 1. On August 23, voters will elect the country’s first unicameral Kurultai, a 145-member legislature that replaces the former Mazhilis and Senate. Political parties are already submitting their lists, with nominations open from July 2 to July 13. Those lists must meet an inclusion requirement that has taken on new significance under the new electoral system: at least 30% of candidates must come from three combined categories, women, young people, and people with disabilities. How many women will actually enter the new parliament will become clear only after the votes are counted. But it is already possible to assess what the rule can achieve, and where its weaknesses lie. What the Law Requires The quota is less straightforward in practice. It does not guarantee that 30% of seats will go to women. The rule sets a combined 30% target that includes women alongside young people and people with disabilities. A party could comply with the rule while doing relatively little to increase women’s representation, if enough candidates from the other eligible categories are included. The rule carries added weight because Kazakhstan’s new Kurultai will be elected through a nationwide proportional party-list system. Under this model, placement on party lists can count as much as the overall number of women nominated. Kazakhstan has also lowered the threshold for registering political parties from 40,000 to 20,000 members, a change intended to make it easier for new political forces to participate. Seven parties have been cleared to compete in the August 23 election. Kazakhstan’s Starting Point Before the transition to the new unicameral legislature, women’s representation in Kazakhstan’s parliament remained limited. By the end of 2025, women held 17 seats in the Mazhilis, or 17.3% of the chamber. As of July 2025, women held 10 of 50 seats in the Senate, or 20%. By comparison, the global average for women’s representation in national parliaments stood at 27.5% at the end of 2025, after rising by just 0.3 percentage points over the year. Kazakhstan enters its first Kurultai election from a position below the global average. How Neighboring Countries Have Addressed the Issue The region already offers examples of how differently gender quotas can work. In Uzbekistan, the quota for women candidates in elections to the Legislative Chamber was raised from 30% to 40% and applied for the first time in the 2024 elections. Unlike Kazakhstan’s rule, Uzbekistan’s quota applies specifically to women rather than to a combined group. The result was noticeable: the number of women MPs rose from 48, or 32%, to 57, or 38%, out of 150 seats. As of July 2025, women also held 16 of 65 Senate seats in Uzbekistan, or 24.6%. An even sharper increase took place in Kyrgyzstan. In the 2025 parliamentary elections, women’s share of seats rose by 12.9 percentage points, the largest increase among countries that renewed their parliaments that year. The change came from a redesign of the electoral system rather than from a symbolic quota....

Water Security

Kyrgyzstan’s Water Compensation Push Tests Central Asian Unity

Central Asia’s water diplomacy is entering a contentious phase. Kyrgyzstan, where much of the region’s runoff is formed, is reviving calls for economic compensation from downstream users. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have rejected the idea, saying current agreements do not provide for payments for transboundary river water. The dispute comes as the region tries to maintain annual water-allocation deals while adapting agriculture to worsening scarcity and climate pressure. Water has long tied together the region’s upstream and downstream states. The 2021 and 2022 clashes on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border showed how disputes over land, border infrastructure, roads, security posts, and water access can escalate when local tensions are not contained. Yet political will alone does not guarantee agreements between countries. The Central Asian republics cooperate on water issues through two interstate bodies. One is the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, established in 1993 by all five Central Asian republics. Kyrgyzstan suspended its participation in IFAS in 2016, and now attends the fund’s meetings as an observer. The second body is the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination, whose meetings are held once a quarter. At its 93rd meeting in Bukhara in early April, the commission confirmed limits for water withdrawal from transboundary rivers, following decisions approved at the 92nd meeting in Dushanbe. For the Amu Darya, the 2026 water allocations set the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 at about 55.4 billion cubic meters. Of this, 15.9 billion cubic meters is allocated for the cold period, from October to April. Tajikistan has been allocated 9.8 billion cubic meters per year, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan each receive 22 billion. A significant part of the flow, 44 billion cubic meters, must pass through the adjusted section of the Kerki hydrological post, helping secure the lower reaches of the river. For the Syr Darya, the total water withdrawal limit for the non-growing season is 4.219 billion cubic meters. Kazakhstan will receive 460 million cubic meters through the Dustlik Canal, Kyrgyzstan 47 million, and Tajikistan 365 million, while the largest share will go to Uzbekistan, 3.347 billion cubic meters. The inherited framework is also facing pressure from outside the five-state system. Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal, which is being advanced outside the Soviet-era allocation structure, has added uncertainty on the Amu Darya. The Central Asian republics also cooperate in bilateral and trilateral formats. In January, Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan joint working groups met in Turkestan. The sides reaffirmed water cooperation, agreed to continue repairs on the Dostyk canal, and planned automated hydrological posts on the Syr Darya. In May, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan agreed on the operating regime of the Bahri-Tojik Reservoir for the summer of 2026. From June to August, the reservoir is to operate in a coordinated mode to supply irrigation water to farmers in the Maktaaral and Zhetysai districts of southern Kazakhstan. These agreements show that regional mechanisms still work, but experts continue to warn that climate pressure, data gaps, and uneven national interests could overwhelm existing formats. “Forecasting the...