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Society

Public Opinion Survey: One in Five Kazakhs Considering Emigrating

One in five Kazakhstanis is contemplating leaving the country, citing low income and a lack of confidence in the future as the primary reasons, according to a survey by the Bureau of Express Monitoring of Public Opinion DEMOSCOPE. The study, titled “Attitude of Kazakhstanis to the Problem of Brain Drain,” was conducted in partnership with the MediaNet International Journalism Center, PAPERLAB research center, and supported by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Migration Sentiment in Numbers The survey revealed that: 21% of respondents are considering emigration. 6.9% intend to leave within the next two to three years. 5.6% wish to move but lack the means to do so. 8.4% are open to moving under certain conditions. However, the majority - 78.5% - do not plan to emigrate in the foreseeable future. Young and middle-aged respondents were the most interested in moving abroad. Among 18-29-year-olds, a quarter said that they wanted to emigrate, while nearly 30% of those in their 30s are considering relocation. Reasons for Leaving The top motivations for emigration included: Higher wages (24.5%) Better prospects for themselves and their children (23.9%) Access to better jobs (14%) Opportunities for quality education (11.7%) Self-development (13.2%) Improved healthcare services (4.9%) Younger respondents were more focused on education and self-development, while older individuals prioritized long-term opportunities. Emigration Trends and Impacts Despite growing migration sentiments, official data for the first three quarters of 2024 show a positive migration balance. Over 20,000 people moved to Kazakhstan, while 10,200 emigrated. However, the qualitative characteristics of migration raise concerns. Many who leave are skilled professionals, including engineers, economists, teachers, and lawyers. A detailed analysis of migration patterns highlights this trend. Popular Destinations and Public Opinion The most desired emigration destinations are: United States (7.7%) Russia (6.2%) European countries (5.1%) Turkey (4.6%) Canada (2.6%) However, 35% of respondents had no specific preference for a destination. Societal attitudes toward emigration remain largely understanding, with 63.3% expressing support for those who choose to leave. Only 11.4% voiced disapproval. Looking ahead, 39% of respondents anticipate a rise in the outflow of skilled workers, while 21.7% predict an increase in immigration to Kazakhstan. Addressing the Brain Drain Experts stress that mitigating the brain drain will require a systematic approach, including: Improving living standards. Enhancing access to quality education and healthcare. Ensuring security and economic stability. The survey, conducted across 17 regions of Kazakhstan, included 1,100 participants. The margin of error does not exceed 3% with a 95% confidence level.

Digitalization

Digital Kazakhstan: Pioneering E-Government and AI Innovations Amid New Challenges

Kazakhstan has solidified its position as a global leader in digital transformation, ranking among the top 25 countries in e-government development and achieving significant milestones in IT innovation. After nearly two decades of digitalization efforts, the country is now aiming to surpass the most advanced nations. The concept of e-government in Kazakhstan was first announced in former President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s address on March 19, 2004. That same year, a program for the establishment of e-government was approved, and the eGov.kz web portal was launched in 2006. Initially, the platform primarily provided informational services. The second phase of e-government (2007–2008) introduced interactive services, allowing citizens to request certificates, submit inquiries to government bodies, and track their progress online. A key milestone was the establishment of Citizen Service Centers on January 5, 2007. Before the digital era, obtaining documents was a lengthy and cumbersome process, plagued by long queues and widespread corruption. In 2024, digitalization in Kazakhstan reached new heights. The government reports that 92% of public services are now provided electronically. Innovations such as biometric identification and QR signatures have simplified access, with over eight million QR code signatures registered and more than 18 million identifications conducted through the Digital ID system this year, according to Kanat Tuleushin, the First Vice-Minister of the Ministry of Digital Development, Innovation, and Aerospace Industry (MCRIAP). The modernization of the e-government platform is ongoing, with plans to transition to the third version of eGov. Additionally, IT services from Kazakhstan are now exported to 86 countries, with key markets including Russia, Ireland, Mexico, the United States, and Singapore. A central focus of the government strategy is the development of artificial intelligence (AI). In 2024, a draft law on AI was approved, and a Committee on AI was established to oversee the development of this field in the country. Kazakhstan continues to modernize its e-government platform, with plans to transition to the third version of eGov. The country has also made strides in exporting IT services to 86 countries, including major markets like Russia, Ireland, Mexico, the United States, and Singapore. A key priority for the government is the development of artificial intelligence (AI). In 2024, a draft law on AI was approved, and a dedicated Committee on AI was established to oversee advancements in this area. In the 2024 UN E-Government Development Index (EGDI), Kazakhstan ranked 24th among 193 countries, climbing four spots since the last assessment. The country also secured a place in the global top 10 of the Online Service Index (OSI), which evaluates the accessibility and quality of government-provided online services. South Korea leads the EGDI rankings, while Kazakhstan outpaces many of its regional neighbors, including Armenia (53rd), Russia (56th), Uzbekistan (59th), Kyrgyzstan (89th), and Turkmenistan (172nd). Kazakhstan’s banking sector has also played a pivotal role in driving digital innovation. Major banks now integrate a wide range of public and business services into their apps. For example, Halyk Bank offers over 60 services, Kaspi.kz provides 40, Bank CenterCredit more than 30, and Freedom...

Repatriation

Repatriating Islamic State Fighters and Families: Balancing Security and Humanity

With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, repatriating foreign fighters is a pressing issue at the intersection of global security, humanitarian principles, and national responsibility. Central Asian governments — namely, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan — have emerged as proactive players in repatriating their citizens from camps in northeastern Syria. While these efforts are laudable, they come with challenges and unanswered questions. Tens of thousands of people, many of them women and children associated with former ISIS or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria - a terrorist organization known for its extreme ideology and violent actions of its’ fighters — remain trapped in the camps of northeastern Syria. Their lives are defined by squalor and uncertainty, and they face a bleak future. Central Asian nations have stepped up where many others have faltered, asserting their responsibility to help their citizens who languish there. Yet, this commitment is not without its limits. Repatriating men — many of whom were fighters — remains a challenge that even the most ambitious programs have struggled to address. This issue looms large, as it intertwines with broader questions. These include reintegration, security risks, and the potential for radicalization, both in prison systems and broader society. The scale of efforts undertaken by four of the Central Asian countries is significant. Together, they have repatriated around 2,200 citizens: Kazakhstan, the most, 754 individuals, followed by others with numbers ranging from 381 to 533. These figures represent more than just logistical achievements. They reflect these governments' commitment to humanitarian principles. However, the path has not been entirely smooth, as some of the repatriated women and children have returned back to conflict zones. As counterintuitive as this may seem, they might do so out of ideological commitment, social ties, coercion or threats, trauma bonding, or difficulty reintegrating into their home societies. All this suggests cracks in reintegration programs that must be addressed. The strategies employed by the Central Asian states, despite their common goal, differ in focus and execution. Kazakhstan’s “Operation Zhusan” is often mentioned as a model of coordination and commitment. It has gone beyond mere repatriation to a vision embracing comprehensive reintegration, including other services, such as DNA testing to identify orphaned children. Yet such efforts rely heavily on state resources and long-term political will, neither of which can be taken for granted. Uzbekistan’s Mehr ("Kindness") initiative has particularly focused on protecting children and supporting the unification of families. Yet even with international appreciation, Uzbekistan faces the same challenges as its neighbors: how to sustain this momentum and address lingering societal stigmas toward returnees. Kyrgyzstan paused its repatriation operations in Iraq due to legal roadblocks and has turned its attention to Syria. However, Kyrgyzstan relies significantly on international cooperation, as its own economic resources for such activities are comparatively limited. So far, it has repatriated 511 citizens. Tajikistan’s steady progress highlights even more pointedly the role of international cooperation with organizations like UNICEF and the European Union. The Tajik authorities have worked closely with...

Aktau Plane Crash

How the Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Could Shake Relations with Russia

The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) airplane in Aktau, Kazakhstan, has the potential to significantly effect Azerbaijan's relations with Russia if Moscow mishandles the situation. To date, there has been a lack of transparency and responsiveness on the part of the Kremlin. The implications could include accelerating the deterioration of Moscow's influence in the region. These implications, therefore, concern not only the local countries, but any international actor having strategic interests in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, or otherwise concerned with their future role and place in the evolving post–Cold War international system. The Facts of the Disaster Given the rapid dissemination of information in the 2020s by electronic means, whereby authentic real-time videos made by first responders to the fuselage on the ground were uploaded to social media and available worldwide within minutes, the overall outline and some details of the incident are by now generally well known. The airplane was en route from Baku to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, when explosions in the air damaged the cabin. Very soon after, but not as a result of these explosions, the pilots completely lost all electronic orientation and navigation capabilities. According to one source close to Azerbaijan's investigation into the crash, preliminary results showed the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system and its communications were then paralyzed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Grozny. Ukrainian military drones have repeatedly targeted Russia’s southern regions, triggering Russian air defenses. “No one claims that it was done on purpose,” the source said; but “taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft.” After being hit, the plane was refused emergency landing permission at Grozny (2.5 kilometers from where the incident occurred) and at least two other Russian airports in the North Caucasus (Makhachkala, 155 kilometers away, and Mineral’nye Vody, 225 kilometers), before being directed by local air control out over the Caspian Sea. Once there, the pilots made the decision to try to land in Aktau (435 kilometers away). Against all odds, they succeeded in avoiding the need to ditch the aircraft into the sea, which would have undoubtedly killed all on board and also destroyed the craft, making any investigation into what had happened impossible. In the event, according to the Kazakhstani authorities, out of 62 passengers and five crew, 32 survivors were initially rescued. Captain Igor Kshnyakin, Co-pilot (First Officer) Alexander Kalyaninov, and Purser Hokuma Aliyeva died when the front wheel touched down ahead of the back wheels, as a result of which the cockpit was thrown violently away from the ongoing wreck. However, this is what created the conditions for at least some of the passengers to survive, as it split the fuselage in two. The event has garnered international attention, including for the professionalism of the crew. What Has Happened Since At first, Kazakhstan declared its own unilateral competence to investigate the crash, which occurred on...

Visa

Azerbaijan Tightens Visa Rules for Russians Amid Aktau Crash Fallout

The Azerbaijani government has announced new restrictions on the temporary stay of Russian citizens, effective January 1, 2025. Under the new rules, Russian citizens and stateless persons residing in Russia will be limited to a maximum of 90 days per calendar year without a visa. The announcement comes in the wake of a tragic plane crash involving an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) aircraft near the Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25. The plane, which had taken off from Baku headed to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed, killing 38 people and injuring 29 others. Kazakhstan is currently leading the investigation into the incident. Accusations and Responses Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has stated that the plane was struck by Russian ground fire while flying over Russian territory. He accused Russia of attempting to obscure the truth by spreading “absurd theories” about the crash. Russian President Vladimir Putin had issued an apology for the incident one day before Aliyev's remarks, but did not admit responsibility for the alleged ground fire. International Reactions The crash has prompted flight suspensions to Russia by several airlines, citing safety concerns. Turkmenistan: Flights on the Ashgabat-Moscow-Ashgabat route have been canceled from December 30, 2024, to January 31, 2025. The reason for the decision has not been disclosed, but the airline previously operated twice-weekly flights to Moscow. Kazakhstan: Kazakh Air has suspended its Astana-Yekaterinburg route from December 28, 2024, to January 27, 2025, to ensure passenger safety. Israel: Israeli airline El Al has halted flights on the Tel Aviv-Moscow route until next week, citing “events in Russian airspace.” UAE: Flydubai has suspended flights to Sochi and Mineralnye Vody due to technical reasons. Flights to Sochi are expected to resume on January 2, while services to Mineralnye Vody will restart on January 3. In a symbolic gesture, an Uzbekistan Airways plane circled Aktau Airport twice in memory of the Azerbaijan Airlines crash victims. Broader Implications The tragedy and subsequent allegations have heightened tensions in the region and raised concerns about air travel safety in Russian airspace. While investigations are ongoing, the incident underscores the geopolitical sensitivities and potential risks associated with the aviation sector in this area.

Aktau Plane Crash

Ilham Aliyev: Azerbaijani Plane Crashed In Kazakhstan Due To Russian Ground Fire

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev said on Sunday that the Azerbaijani airliner that crashed in Kazakhstan last week had been hit by Russian ground fire while flying over Russian territory. He also said that there had been efforts by Russia to cover up what had happened by spreading “absurd theories.” After several days of international speculation and scrutiny, Aliyev spoke in detail with Azerbaijan Television in Baku about the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane on Wednesday that killed 38 people. His remarks came one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized for the crash but did not acknowledge that the aircraft had been accidentally hit by Russian fire. Kazakhstan is leading the investigation of the crash, which occurred near the Caspian Sea city of Aktau after the plane diverted from its original destination of Grozny in the Russian republic of Chechnya. Officials said 29 people survived. “The facts indicate that the Azerbaijani civilian plane was damaged from the outside over Russian territory, near the city of Grozny, and almost lost control. We also know that means of electronic warfare put our plane out of control. This was the first impact on the plane. At the same time, as a result of fire from the ground, the tail of the plane was also severely damaged,” Aliyev said in the interview. Aliyev said that fact that “the fuselage is riddled with holes” indicates that initial speculation that birds hit the plane is false, and he criticized “some circles in Russia” for proposing that theory. “Another regrettable and surprising moment for us was that official Russian agencies put forward theories about the explosion of a gas cylinder on board the plane. In other words, this clearly showed that the Russian side wanted to cover up the issue, which, of course, is unbecoming of anyone. Of course, our plane was hit by accident. Of course, there can be no talk of a deliberate act of terror here,” the Azerbaijani president said. “Therefore, admitting guilt, apologizing in a timely manner to Azerbaijan, which is considered a friendly country, and informing the public about this – these were measures and steps that should have been taken. Unfortunately, for the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except for some absurd theories.” Azerbaijan refused Russian suggestions that the Russian-led Interstate Aviation Committee investigate the crash, saying there were concerns about the objectivity of the regional agency. Aliyev said he told Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev that he didn’t want the agency involved and that his position was “met with understanding.” In his apology in a phone conversation with Aliyev on Saturday, Putin said the Azerbaijani plane had been trying to land at a time when Russian air defenses were repelling attacks by Ukrainian drones. But he didn’t say that those air defenses hit the plane. Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights to 10 Russian cities since the crash.