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Economy

Trump’s Trade Wars and Kazakhstan’s Economic Jitters

U.S. President Donald Trump is addressing his country's economic challenges with aggressive trade policies, threatening tariff barriers and demanding concessions from major economies. The Times of Central Asia explores whether these actions could deepen economic challenges in Kazakhstan and the broader Central Asian region. A New Round of Trade Wars In early February, the United States officially announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside a reduced 10% tariff on Canadian energy resources. Additionally, a 10% tariff was imposed on all Chinese imports. The justification given was to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. While Mexico and Canada managed to delay the new tariffs through negotiations, China responded swiftly with retaliatory measures. According to China's Ministry of Finance, Beijing imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. oil and agricultural machinery imports, and a 15% duty on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Additionally, Chinese regulators launched an antitrust investigation into Google, further escalating tensions. Despite these developments, a resolution remains possible, though seemingly ever more distant. On February 3, Trump announced plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but that call was then canceled following China's retaliatory measures. In a further escalation, on February 5, the US Postal Service said it has stopped accepting parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong until further notice. Meanwhile, Trump has also signaled plans to impose new duties on goods from the European Union. As of November 2024, China was the third-largest U.S. trading partner, accounting for 11.3% of total U.S. foreign trade. Mexico (15.4%) and Canada (13.8%) ranked first and second, respectively. In contrast, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations do not rank among the top 15 U.S. trading partners. Domestic Issues Outweigh External Pressures According to economist Aidarkhan Kusainov, Trump's trade policies are unlikely to have a direct impact on Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia, Kusainov argued that domestic economic challenges far outweigh the influence of global trade wars. "Our economy faces significant internal distortions, making global trade wars a relatively minor factor. Inflation in Kazakhstan is not caused by external pressures but by rising fuel and utility costs, tax policies, and discussions about increasing value-added tax (VAT). Within a short period, the tenge’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has shifted from 490 to 530," he said. Kusainov further emphasized that if Kazakhstan's inflation rate were around 2%, any impact from global factors would be worth analyzing. However, with official inflation at 9% - and real inflation likely much higher - domestic issues are the primary concern. "Our economy is so small compared to the world's leading economies that its presence in the global market is nearly imperceptible. By economic volume, we are smaller than some Chinese provinces. Other Central Asian countries are even less integrated into global trade," Kusainov noted. He warned that only a large-scale global crisis could significantly impact Kazakhstan’s economy, potentially exposing internal vulnerabilities that the government can no longer mitigate. Inflation Risks Inflation remains a pressing concern in...

AZAL Plane Crash

“Mayday! Mayday!” Kazakhstan Releases Report on AZAL Plane Crash

A preliminary report on the Dec. 25 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane in Kazakhstan contains details that could be consistent with widespread assertions that the aircraft was damaged by ground fire during an earlier attempt to land as planned in Russia. But the report, released on Tuesday by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport, leaves many questions unanswered about the crash that killed 38 out of the 67 people on board the plane and sharpened tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia. [caption id="attachment_28337" align="aligncenter" width="923"] Image: Department for Investigation of Accidents and Incidents in Transport preliminary report[/caption] An investigation is ongoing and a final report will be prepared on the disaster just outside the Kazakh city of Aktau, meaning that more information could emerge on Russia’s alleged culpability in the case. While the preliminary report helps to fill out a picture of the chaos and confusion that unfolded on the Embraer 190 plane on the Baku-Grozny route, it is unlikely to satisfy Azerbaijan, which accused Russia of a coverup and demanded accountability. The report on the politically sensitive case says its purpose is to focus on aviation safety and not to establish anyone’s guilt. Assigning blame could come in criminal cases that were opened by Azerbaijani and Kazakh prosecutors, though holding those responsible to account, especially if they are in Russia, will be a challenge. [caption id="attachment_28338" align="aligncenter" width="851"] Image: Department for Investigation of Accidents and Incidents in Transport preliminary report[/caption] The report says parts of the plane were hit by objects from outside the plane and photos show portions of the fuselage riddled with holes, but the analysis doesn’t confirm that they were the result of missile shrapnel as some security and aviation analysts have said. “The initial inspection of the surviving fragments revealed numerous through and non-through damages of various sizes and shapes in the tail section of the fuselage, vertical stabilizer and stabilizer, elevator and rudder. Similar damages were found on the left engine and left wing of the aircraft, as well as on the units and components of the aircraft. In some places, the damages have a regular rectangular shape,” the report said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, in a phone conversation. However, the Russian leader did not acknowledge that the aircraft had been accidentally hit by Russian fire before diverting to Aktau. Russia has said the area was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time. Kazakhstan has led the investigation, which includes representatives from Azerbaijan, Russia and Brazil. The Canada-based International Civil Aviation Organization, a United Nations agency that oversees aviation safety, is also involved. The preliminary report provides a picture of the flight and subsequent crash that is consistent with past accounts of survivors and other sources of information, though it also offers gripping detail from the data and cockpit voice recorders that were recovered and analyzed in Brazil, where the plane model is made. At one point, the sound of a boom is recorded. Citing the...

Rule of Law

Kazakhstan Proposes Polygraph Testing for Law Enforcement Officials

Kazakhstan’s General Prosecutor’s Office has drafted a decree proposing the use of polygraph examinations when appointing law enforcement officers to senior positions. Previously, there had been discussions about requiring all government job applicants to undergo lie detector tests. According to the proposal, polygraph testing could be applied to candidates for leadership roles in all law enforcement agencies, state protection services, and the State Courier Service. “The main objectives of the test are to identify hidden negative motives for seeking employment in law enforcement agencies, including affiliations with banned public associations, criminal organizations, and terrorist groups,” the draft states. Additionally, polygraph tests would aim to detect potential issues such as alcohol or drug addiction, gambling problems, concealed illnesses, suicidal tendencies, undisclosed income, dual citizenship, or the use of forged documents. Candidates may also be questioned about corruption-related offenses, unauthorized disclosure of classified or official information, and abuse of power. “The examination of an employee from a law enforcement agency, civil protection agency, or the State Courier Service of the Republic of Kazakhstan will be conducted when they are nominated for higher managerial positions - whether as part of regular or unscheduled attestation or through a competition for a leadership role. It may also be used during official investigations, with the individual's consent,” the draft decree states. The proposal, published on the Open NPA portal, is open for public discussion until February 14, 2025. Kazakhstan established a legal framework for polygraph use late last year. However, this is not the country’s first attempt to introduce lie detector tests for civil servants. In 2010, members of the Nur Otan party proposed using polygraphs to screen government officials involved in financial matters. At that time, the plan covered all government departments - both law enforcement and civilian - though it faced greater resistance from the latter. Ultimately, the proposal was not implemented in the civil service. Now, 15 years later, discussions have resumed, though with a narrower focus on law enforcement personnel. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, Kazakhstan also has plans to establish a register of corrupt officials.

Telecommunications

Kazakhstan Plans to Ban Starlink and Other Satellite Communication Systems Face Backlash

Kazakhstan is considering a ban on the import of Starlink and other satellite communication devices, a move that has sparked opposition from experts and the public. In December 2024, authorities proposed a draft regulation prohibiting the import of satellite communication equipment from major manufacturers, including Thuraya, Iridium, Inmarsat, and Starlink. The proposal quickly ignited public debate on the Open ABO portal, with most commentators opposing the measure. Following a wave of criticism, the draft was sent for revision. National Security Concerns The ban would apply to satellite phones and terminals commonly used by emergency services, maritime fleets, and travelers in areas lacking traditional communication networks. The Ministry of Digital Development defends the restriction as a national security measure, citing Article 23 of Kazakhstan’s Law on National Security. The law prohibits the operation of foreign-controlled communication networks within the country. Authorities have suggested requiring local oversight of satellite devices. Industry and Legal Concerns Industry representatives and legal experts, however, have raised strong objections. Safety Risks: Alexey Korchagin, a representative of satellite communications partner ZHARYQ LLP, warns that restricting satellite communication could jeopardize lives. He argues that alternatives such as Eutelsat-OneWeb and Amazon Kuiper cannot fully replace Thuraya, Iridium, and Inmarsat, as their functionality differs. Unlike bulky VSAT terminals, mobile satellite phones are compact, easy to use, and designed for emergencies. Control Over Information: Lawyer Yelzhan Kabyshev sees the ban as part of a broader effort to control information flows. He points to previous cyber-control measures, including security certificates and data interception policies. He also questions the transparency of the decision-making process, particularly after the January 2022 unrest, which led to criminal cases against top National Security Committee officials. A Growing Black Market: Experts argue that the ban will not eliminate security risks, as the devices could still be smuggled into the country. Korchagin warns that such restrictions could fuel the "gray" market, making it harder to regulate and potentially increasing security threats. Alternative Solutions Instead of an outright ban, experts recommend cooperation with satellite operators to ensure regulatory oversight without compromising essential communication services. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is working to expand internet access in remote areas. In 2024, a pilot project connected nearly 2,000 rural schools to Starlink satellite internet. The Ministry of Digital Economy has stated that the ban will not affect these connections, though the long-term future of the project after 2026 remains uncertain.

AZAL Plane Crash

Kazakhstan to Release Preliminary Report on Aktau Plane Crash in Coming Days

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Marat Karabayev, has announced that a preliminary report on the investigation into the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) aircraft near Aktau will be published in the coming days. On December 25, 2024, an Embraer 190 aircraft operated by AZAL crashed approximately three kilometers from Aktau airport while attempting an emergency landing. The flight, en route from Baku to the Russian city of Grozny, was carrying 62 passengers and five crew members. Thirty-eight people were killed in the crash. Footage from the crash site shows significant damage to the fuselage, with some reports suggesting a pattern consistent with air defense missile fragment impacts. The aircraft had initially requested permission to land at Grozny airport before abruptly changing course toward Aktau. Among the possible causes under investigation are a missile strike, and electronic system malfunctions due to radio signal suppression in Grozny linked to Russian efforts to repel Ukrainian drone attacks. Initially, the possibility of a bird strike was also mooted. Kazakhstan is leading the investigation under the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Convention, as the crash occurred within its territory. Specialists from Azerbaijan, Russia, and Brazil, along with international aviation experts and representatives from Embraer, are involved in the inquiry. “The specialists need time to complete their work, and we will not provide comments until the preliminary report is published. However, I promise that the report will be released in the coming days,” Karabayev said at a press conference in Astana on Tuesday. The investigation is in its final stages, he added, noting that experts from Azerbaijan, Russia, Brazil’s Center for Investigation and Prevention of Aviation Accidents (CENIPA), and ICAO have all contributed. “I hope that in the near future, we will publish a preliminary report on our website,” the minister stated. Karabayev specified that the report will be made available on the website of the Civil Aviation Committee, which operates under the Ministry of Transport. The Brazilian CENIPA has completed its analysis of the aircraft’s black boxes, and the decoded data has been sent to Kazakh authorities. “The conclusions drawn from this analysis, and those published in the final crash report, are the sole responsibility of Kazakhstan’s investigative body,” CENIPA stated. According to ICAO regulations, a preliminary report should be issued within 30 days of an incident. In late January, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Kanat Bozumbayev, expressed hope that the initial findings would be released by the end of the month, but no report has yet been published. “Specialists need time to complete the work. It is a very complex and meticulous process,” Karabayev reiterated in response to questions about the delay. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the plane crash has contributed to tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia.

Photography

Grounding the Stars: Andrew McConnell’s Lens on Space and the Steppe

Award-winning photographer and filmmaker Andrew McConnell has dedicated his career to illuminating the world’s overlooked regions and underreported stories. He has a distinctive ability to examine major global issues and events from fresh, often unexpected perspectives. Ordinary people in extraordinary circumstances are the focus of McConnell’s lens. From conflict zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the hidden lives of the Sahrawi people in Western Sahara, his work frequently highlights human endurance in challenging environments. His new book, Some Worlds Have Two Suns, takes a different direction. It explores the vast, remote Kazakh Steppe, where the sparse local population coexists with the high-tech world of space travel. The project began in 2014 after he filmed his documentary Gaza. While decompressing at home in Ireland, he watched a BBC documentary about a Soyuz spacecraft landing in the Kazakh Steppe. The stark contrast between destruction and human achievement struck him. “I turned to my parents and said, ‘I’m gonna go and see that.’” That moment sparked an eight-year journey documenting the Russian ground crews recovering astronauts and the communities living beneath these celestial homecomings. TCA: You visited the Kazakh Steppe multiple times to document the Soyuz landings. How many trips did you make and what were the challenges of reaching such a remote location? Andrew: I probably made a dozen. I would join the ground crew in Karaganda, which is not far from Astana, and from there they head out to the Steppe, and depending on whether it's winter or summer they have different vehicles for either one. In summer, the Steppe is fine to drive on, so they have four by fours and we head out and set up camp the day before the Soyuz arrives. They know the exact time the Soyuz will land, right down to the second, and it always goes to the same location, which is a group of tombs. You can see those in the book, the two horsemen beside these tombs. These are old nomadic burial tombs, maybe 300 years old, so that, initially, was very interesting to me… you know, what are these? The Steppe is this unending boundless void of nothingness, just flat grassland. At first, as a photographer, it was quite underwhelming because visually, how do you make that interesting? But here were these tombs in the middle of nowhere and it was instantly fascinating. That was always the base camp. I don’t know if that’s where Rocosmos aimed Soyuz, but that’s where it came into the atmosphere every time I saw it. It would enter the atmosphere above these tombs. The parachute deploys and then it depends on the wind because they can drift for 20 kilometers. A couple of times it was a windless day, and the Soyuz dropped within sight of these tombs. I had a fantasy that it would drop in the middle of it. [caption id="attachment_28250" align="aligncenter" width="2000"] Nomadic burial tombs, Soyuz landing zone, Kazakhstan, 2018; image: Andrew McConnell[/caption] TCA: What shifted your focus from the...