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Foreign Affairs

Navigating Diplomacy: Central Asia’s Strategic Balancing Act Amid Middle East Tensions

The five Central Asian republics are actively building ties with the outside world, trying to balance the influence of China and Russia in the region. For the former Soviet republics, the Middle East was, until recently, a kind of terra incognita since Moscow carried out all contacts with the area. However, since the nineties, thanks to a growing friendship with Turkey, Kazakhstan, followed by other Central Asian republics, have begun establishing diplomatic, cultural, and trade ties with the Middle East and North African countries. Another escalation in the Middle East has forced the diplomatic departments of the Central Asian countries, whilst avoiding any accusations against either side in the conflict, to inform their citizens about and the address the fate of their compatriots who have found themselves at the epicenter of events. Kazakhstan In Kazakhstan, law enforcement agencies reacted before diplomats. Shyngys Alekeshev, head of the Interior Ministry's Information Policy Department, said in response to journalists' inquiries that police in the republic have brought their patrol routes closer to synagogues and Israeli diplomatic facilities. Later, official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Aibek Smadiarov, said that no Kazakh citizens were injured as a result of the armed escalation between Iran and Israel, and urged Kazakh citizens in the Middle East to exercise caution. “The Kazakh Foreign Ministry expresses deep concern about the increasing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. We call on all parties involved to exercise restraint and refrain from using forceful methods to avoid civilian casualties and further escalation of the situation in the region, which could provoke a full-scale war. In this regard, we note the importance of taking early measures to resolve differences exclusively through political and diplomatic means within the framework of the principles of the UN Charter and international law,” said Smadiarov. According to the representative, 120 citizens of the Republic of Kazakhstan, including diplomats and their family members, are registered as being present in Israel, 102 in Iran, and 139 in Lebanon. “Communication channels have been created with citizens who are in these countries. Constant communication is maintained with them, and necessary recommendations are given depending on the development of the situation in one country or another. Several times, embassies have announced the need to leave the country due to the aggravation of military and political situations. At the same time, the Ministry and authorized bodies are monitoring the situation to work out possible repatriation flights. The evacuation of our citizens is still under consideration and the special control of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” said Smadiarov. Kyrgyzstan The Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry stated on October 2 that it is deeply concerned about events taking place in the Middle East, stating that it is calling on “the conflicting parties to respect the fundamental principles and norms of international law, including refraining from actions leading to an escalation of the situation in the region. The Kyrgyz Republic urges the global community to completely stop military action as soon as possible, and start...

Flight Disruption

Middle East Conflict Disrupts Flights with Central Asia

The growing conflict between Israel and Iran has disrupted international air travel in the Middle East, and Central Asia is grappling with cancellations and rerouted flights to and from the region. Flynas, a low-cost Saudi airline, and Qeshm Air, an Iranian carrier, have temporarily canceled flights to Uzbekistan “due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the closure of part of the airspace,” the state-run Uzbekistan Airports company said on Telegram on Wednesday. The cancellations were a Flynas flight on the Jeddah-Tashkent-Jeddah route; another roundtrip Flynas flight from Jeddah to the Uzbek city of Namangan and back; and a Qeshm Air flight from Tehran to Tashkent and back to the Iranian capital, according to the Uzbek company. It advised travelers to check departure information with airline representatives. Air Astana, Kazakhstan’s national carrier, said it had decided to bypass Iran’s airspace on its flights to Dubai after analyzing the situation in the Middle East and following guidance from the national aviation authorities. “As a result, the flight routes from Astana and Almaty to Dubai will be altered, and flight time will be extended,” Air Astana said on Telegram. “Flights to Jeddah will remain unchanged but may be reconsidered if military activity in the region escalates. If necessary, the airline will implement additional changes to ensure flight safety.” Aviation authorities of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport have advised domestic airlines to avoid Iranian airspace, according to Kazinform, a state-run news agency. The flight disruptions came after Iran launched hundreds of missiles at Israel on Tuesday, and Israel warned that it will respond forcefully to the attack. The confrontation threatens a broader conflict in the region as Israel is already conducting military operations against two Iran-backed groups, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Society

Kazakhstan’s Youth Suicide Crisis: Unraveling the Complex Web of Societal Challenges

A wave of suicides among teenagers and young adults has swept across Kazakhstan. Parents and the Children's Ombudsman have said children were provoked to do dangerous things by the internet, and deputies have demanded that social networks should be blocked. The media, meanwhile, has been accused of creating a “Werther effect,” fixating on the rash of suicides and thus encouraging teenagers to repeat these acts of self-harm. However, experts believe the cause is much more nuanced and cannot be eliminated by blocking harmful content alone. Chronicle of a Fateful September On September 13, a teenager fell from an eighth-story window in Astana. The boy died of his injuries. The very next day, a schoolgirl plummeted from a fifth-floor window in Shchuchinsk. The 12-year-old girl is in hospital, and the causes of both incidents are still under investigation. On September 16 in Almaty, two seventh-grade students from school No. 25 named after the writer I.Esenberlin, left class and climbed to the attic of a neighbor's apartment complex. The girls both fell to their death from the roof. “I came, and I saw two girls lying there. They had jumped from the roof," an eyewitness stated. "The girls were about 13 years old; seventh graders. One had a backpack next to her, and the other had no shoes and was wearing black tights. She had taken her shoes off and placed them neatly. One fell on a car, and her body rolled away. The second was immediately killed on the asphalt.” Later, it became known that one of the girls was the daughter of a famous Almaty ecologist and artist. Deputy Interior Minister Igor Lepekha said that what happened "is a suicide; the case was opened based on it being suicide." On September 21, another schoolgirl fell from a high-rise in Almaty. Allegedly, the girl left the house to perform a routine task, but climbed to the 13th floor, from where she plunged. The Almaty Police Department confirmed the girl's death and has opened a criminal case. By this time, in schools, online, and on social networks, parents had started to spread panicked rumors about the impact on children of a particular computer game, similar to the semi-mythical game “Blue Whale.” In the past, Blue Whale has been decried as a malicious game which encourages teenagers to commit suicide and acts of violence, but no convincing evidence has ever been presented. The Almaty police stated that gossip regarding the involvement of dangerous internet games in the girls' deaths is not valid and reminded the public about their responsibility vis-à-vis spreading false information. On September 22, in the yard of a multi-story residential building in Almaty, the body of a 3rd-year cadet from the Border Academy of the National Security Committee (NSC) who was on regular leave was found. “The cause of death was a fall from a height,” the NSC press service reported. On September 23, also in Almaty, multiple sources reported that a young man had tumbled from a high-rise building. Police...

Nuclear Referendum

Observers From 30 Countries Will Follow the Referendum on NPP in Kazakhstan

The secretary of the Central Referendum Commission, Mukhtar Erman, has announced that 177 international observers will monitor the referendum on constructing a nuclear power plant (NPP) in Kazakhstan. Erman specified that observers represent 30 countries and four international organizations. Major international organizations invited by Kazakhstan include the OSCE, SCO, CIS, and Organization of Turkic States; however, the OSCE will not participate due to its high workload. Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilenko added that 200 foreign journalists from 37 countries, including international media representatives, will work on the day of the referendum. According to Vassilenko, this will ensure transparency and objectivity. The idea of holding the referendum, which will be held on October 6, 2024, emerged against the backdrop of regular problems with energy supply and the need to modernize infrastructure. An active debate has characterized the build-up to the referendum, a project supported by the authorities as a solution to combat energy shortages and carbon dioxide emissions, whilst some quarters of the population remain concerned about environmental risks and Kazakhstan's historical connection to nuclear testing.

Middle Corridor

China Officially Joins the Middle Corridor

It was announced during the 8th International Silk Road Expo in Xi’an in September 2024 that China will formally join the Middle Corridor under the guise of participation by the China Railway Container Transport Corporation (CRTC). This move signals a growing reliance on Central Asia’s trade-route infrastructure potential. China's shift to overland routes is part of a broader strategy to diversify away from traditional maritime routes through chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca, which carry geopolitical risk. Kazakhstan's strategic geographic location naturally makes it indispensable to China’s trade, and infrastructure projects currently underway represent a key component of the Middle Corridor’s potential. In July 2024, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ratified agreements with China aimed at further developing the Middle Corridor, enhancing both road and rail infrastructure. The country has already been upgrading its rail infrastructure, modernizing dry ports like Khorgos on the Chinese border, and expanding transit facilities at the Caspian Sea port of Aktau. The increased flow of goods through Kazakhstan is evident: over 212 container block trains have passed through the country by September 2024, with the number projected to exceed 300 by the year’s end. These build-outs, and particularly Kazakhstan’s modernization of its railways, go hand-in-hand with the recently finished improvements along the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) line, which connects Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia. The expansion of the BTK line's capacity from 1 million to 5 million tons per year has now been completed. As a result of all these efforts, the travel time for goods from China to the Black Sea has been reduced to just 10–12 days, highlighting the efficiency of the corridor. Azerbaijan also plays a crucial role in this economic ecosystem. Baku’s port of Alat serves as a critical transit point for cargo crossing between Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s collaboration with Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Turkey has led to significant investments in expanding port facilities and upgrading railway systems beyond the crucial BTK link mentioned above. The result is a smoother, more reliable flow of goods from China to Europe. Azerbaijan is winning its bet to become a regional logistics hub. In addition, a Chinese consortium recently secured the contract for the construction of the Anaklia deep-sea port in Georgia, a strategically important site on the eastern edge of the Black Sea. The project was initially awarded to a Georgian-American consortium, but was cancelled in 2020 due to political and legal disputes. Following a new tender process this year, the Chinese consortium emerged as the sole bidder. If supporting infrastructure is adequately developed and the Black Sea’s cargo transit capacity can be significantly enhanced, then the Anaklia port could become a critical node in the Middle Corridor, enhancing its role in Eurasian trade and bolstering regional connectivity. China’s increased reliance on Central Asian, trans-Caspian, and South Caucasus routes is not just about efficiency. It is also a strategic diversification to mitigate the risks posed by geopolitical instability in other regions. Traditional sea routes through maritime choke-points as well as overland routes like...

Bilateral Relations

Lukashenko Turns Up Charm After Kazakhstan Kerfuffle

In August, Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko drew a Kazakh rebuke after he criticized Kazakhstan for what he described as its tepid support for Russia. Lukashenko was a model of diplomatic etiquette on Tuesday, effusively praising Kazakhstan as a close ally during a ceremony at which he received credentials of foreign ambassadors. “Today there are practically no areas where we do not have common interests. Annual $1 billion trade turnover and successful projects in industrial interaction testify to the high dynamics of bilateral cooperation,” the longtime Belarusian ruler said of Kazakhstan. Lukashenko´s comments were reported by Belarus Today, a state-run media group. The Belarusian president also thanked Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for supporting Belarus when it became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional security group, earlier this year, according to Belarus Today. Kazakhstan was chair of the organization at the time. Things weren’t as convivial in August when Lukashenko, a backer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggested in an interview with Russian state television that Kazakhstan was exploiting Russia, now in a third year of war since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. “We are not starting to cheat like some post-Soviet states. They want to take something from Russia, but give nothing in return,” Lukashenko said at the time. The longtime leader of Belarus, who has crushed opposition over 30 years in power, referred to the dispatch of troops from regional countries to Kazakhstan in a show of support after protests and riots erupted there in January 2022, killing more than 200 people. Most of the troops were Russian; a small contingent came from Belarus. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Belarusian ambassador after Lukashenko’s remarks and said, in an apparently oblique reference to the Ukraine war, that “all disagreements between states should be resolved by political and diplomatic means.” Kazakhstan’s new ambassador in Belarus is Yerlan Baizhanov, formerly the country’s top diplomat in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.