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Trump’s Bid for Ukraine-Russia Peace: Could Kazakhstan Be the Key Mediator?

One of the anticipated top priorities of Donald Trump’s presidency is ending Russia's war in Ukraine while normalizing relations with Moscow. Writing on his Truth Social channel, Trump stated that, “Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!” Trump’s nominee to serve as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, 80-year-old former national security advisor, General Keith Kellogg, laid out his plan in writing for the America First policy institute, whilst focusing on characterizing the war “an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies [which] has entangled America in an endless war.” There are fears, however, that Kellogg’s proposal to reach a ceasefire by freezing the frontlines and forcing both sides the negotiating table will lead to a tumultuously violent period as Moscow seeks to swallow up territory. Meanwhile, NATO’s new secretary-general, Mark Rutte, has warned that compelling Ukraine into a “bad peace” would pose a “dire threat” to the U.S. itself. Whilst the framework for bringing a pause to hostilities is becoming clearer, it appears that Trump (or his representative) will need to meet with Vladimir Putin, and Kazakhstan has emerged as a potential venue for this high-stakes meeting. Kazakhstan's Role as Mediator Russian political analyst, Arkady Dubnov, has argued that Putin’s recent state visit to Astana may be an indication that Kazakhstan could play a pivotal role, and that given Putin’s limited travel options due to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against him, Kazakhstan, with its reputation for diplomacy, would be a logical choice. “Putin is essentially restricted from visiting most of the Western Hemisphere,” Dubnov explained. “This leaves the Eurasian East, and among its cities, Astana stands out. Kazakhstan has hosted OSCE and CICA summits, mediated in the Syrian conflict, and facilitated peace talks over the future of the South Caucasus.” Dubnov sees Putin’s visit to Astana as indirectly tied to a possible meeting with Trump. “The Kremlin trusts Kazakhstan as an ally while respecting its constructive relations with the U.S. and the broader West,” he stated. Kazakhstan has long been recognized as a neutral ground where East and West can find commonality. The Astana process on Syria, initiated in 2017, helped prevent the escalation of hostilities for years, whilst Kazakhstan has mediated in other long-standing disputes, such as the conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijan. Given this history, it is conceivable that a reconciliation process between Russia and Ukraine could start in Astana. Neither the Minsk agreements of 2014, nor discussions in Istanbul in 2022 achieved lasting peace, but Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts could provide fresh impetus. Early Peace Efforts In March 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasized the urgency of negotiations to bring a halt to hostilities, a stance that has since gained momentum as the war drags on. By 2024, the validity of Tokayev’s view — that negotiations are the only viable path to end the bloodshed — has become increasingly apparent. Kazakhstan’s diplomatic corps has actively pushed for peace....

internal affairs CSTO CIS Global Diplomacy Foreign Policy Foreign Affairs

CSTO Leaders Tackle Regional Security, Nuclear Energy, and Afghan Border Concerns

Astana hosted a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), gathering heads of member states to discuss pressing regional and international issues. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev chaired the session of the CSTO Collective Security Council. Attendees included Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and CSTO Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov. In his address, President Tokayev highlighted the CSTO’s pivotal role in maintaining peace and stability in Eurasia. “Amid modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to tackle complex and large-scale tasks. The CSTO is not merely a military partnership but a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Tokayev stated. CSTO’s Response to Kazakhstan’s 2022 Crisis Tokayev reflected on the CSTO’s rapid deployment in January 2022, when Kazakhstan faced unrest over rising gas prices, which escalated into violent confrontations. Within 24 hours, CSTO forces were deployed to stabilize the situation. Russian troops secured strategic facilities in Almaty, while Kazakh forces restored order, marking a critical demonstration of the organization’s operational capability. Putin Unveils "Oreshnik" Missile System Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed ongoing tensions with Ukraine, signaling the potential use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile system in response to Western-supplied long-range missiles targeting Russian territory. According to Putin, the Oreshnik has the destructive power of nuclear weapons, and can penetrate heavily fortified targets. “The temperature of the striking elements reaches 4,000 degrees. At the explosion's epicenter, everything is reduced to elementary particles, essentially turning to dust,” he explained. Putin also announced that serial production of the missile had begun, with several units ready for deployment. Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Project Discussions also turned to Kazakhstan’s plans to build its first nuclear power plant. Tokayev has proposed an international consortium, and Putin expressed Russia's willingness to participate through Rosatom, emphasizing its extensive experience with international collaborations. “Rosatom is ready to work with specialists from other countries,” Putin remarked, leaving the door open for multilateral cooperation. Armenia’s Absence and CSTO’s Future Noticeably absent from the summit was Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, following Armenia’s decision to freeze its CSTO membership earlier this year. Yerevan cited concerns over its sovereignty as the reason for the suspension. Secretary-General Tasmagambetov remained optimistic about Armenia’s return, calling it a valued ally. “This is the decision of an independent and sovereign state, which no country or organization can influence. Nevertheless, we view Armenia as an ally and hope it will return to full participation in the CSTO in the foreseeable future,” Tasmagambetov stated. Key Summit Outcomes During the session, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) also reflected on Kazakhstan's presidency in 2024, highlighting significant milestones achieved under its leadership. President Tokayev reported that approximately 60 activities were conducted within the CSTO's statutory areas of cooperation during Kazakhstan’s presidency. This included advancing coordinated approaches to key international issues in collaboration with member...

Putin Russia Politics Ukraine International Diplomacy Foreign Affairs Economic Cooperation Multi-vector Foreign Policy Potential Nuclear Partners Bilateral Cooperation

Geopolitical Posturing or Genuine Partnership? Key Takeaways from Putin’s Trip to Kazakhstan

On November 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana for a state visit. He was met at the airport by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The streets of Astana, along Putin’s motorcade route, were adorned with Russian flags, creating a ceremonial backdrop for a meeting touted as a symbol of strategic partnership between the two nations. At the Akorda Presidential Palace, Tokayev hosted a reception for Putin that blended official decorum with cultural displays. The program featured children reciting poetry and participation in a collaborative painting led by renowned Kazakh artist Assol (Asel Sabyrzhankyzy), who named the artwork Bridge of Friendship and presented it to Putin. However, not all Kazakhstanis welcomed the visit with enthusiasm. Some citizens, concerned by Russia’s imperial overtones or sympathetic to Ukraine, expressed their dissent through an online flash mob. A banner at Astana Airport referring to Putin as “Your Excellency” sparked outrage among critics, who viewed it as excessive deference. Political analysts later clarified that the term has been consistently used for other high-level visitors to Kazakhstan. Putin’s state visit, described as a rare diplomatic event typically occurring once per presidential term, was notably proposed by Kazakhstan. During a press briefing, Putin remarked, “At your suggestion, this visit was given the status of a state visit, but I want to note that the solemn protocol did not prevent us from working productively, as is characteristic of our meetings.” Heightened Security Amid Geopolitical Tensions The visit came against the backdrop of growing geopolitical instability. Less than a week earlier, on November 21, Tokayev had instructed government agencies to heighten security following Russia’s test of the Oreshnik ballistic system in Ukraine. This context, paired with the substantial security measures surrounding the state visit, led observers to speculate that Russia’s own security concerns may have influenced the format. The official discussions were framed by frequent references to “strategic partnership” and the “geopolitical situation.” These themes culminated in a joint declaration entitled “Joint Statement of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the President of the Russian Federation on Deepening Strategic Partnership in the New Global Order.” The statement, structured in three main sections, outlined bilateral cooperation in political, economic, and security domains. Ambiguities in Counter-Terrorism and Political Statements The declaration’s political section raised some eyebrows, particularly the clause condemning recent “terrorist acts” in Russia and pledging closer intelligence cooperation to combat such threats. Questions remain over whether Kazakhstan considers only incidents like the Crocus City Hall attack on the outskirts of Moscow as terrorism, or whether the term extends to military actions tied to the Ukraine conflict. Another noteworthy point was the denunciation of “irresponsible statements” by public figures that undermine mutual respect between the two nations. This has been a sensitive issue for Kazakhstan, which has frequently faced provocative rhetoric from Russian propagandists and certain lawmakers. Tokayev himself rebuffed such remarks at the 2022 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, firmly rejecting recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Economic Vision and Strategic Transport The economic...

International Diplomacy Afghanistan Taliban Foreign Affairs Geopolitics United Nations Economic Cooperation

Kazakhstan and Taliban Afghanistan: An Overview of Relations

Diplomatic relations between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan began more than 30 years ago, on February 12, 1992. However, in April of that year, the republican regime in Kabul fell, and the country plunged into the abyss of civil war after becoming the Islamic State of Afghanistan. Such chaos had never been seen before. The first Taliban Emirate was established and then overthrown by the US-led coalition, after which the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan was proclaimed Politics Kazakhstan's first diplomatic mission in Kabul was opened in September 2002, less than a year after America launched Operation Enduring Freedom. In 2003, it was transformed into an embassy. From then on, the relationship between the countries became operational. The new starting point of the Kazakh-Afghan relationship was August 15, 2021, when the Taliban seized power in Kabul. Kazakhstan's foreign policy was put to a test, but Astana demonstrated foresight and pragmatism. The Kazakh embassy, unlike most other countries, was not evacuated, diplomats continued to work in the new conditions and began to establish the first contacts with the Taliban authorities. From the very beginning, Kazakhstan took a clear and understandable position and began to promote it at various levels. A month after the Taliban seized Kabul, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev drew attention to the situation in Afghanistan at the SCO meeting in Dushanbe (September 17). As he stated, "Kazakhstan sees future Afghanistan as a truly independent and united state living in peace with itself and its neighbors. At this crucial historical moment, the multinational people of Afghanistan should not be left alone in the face of unprecedented difficulties". A few days later, on September 22, during the UN General Assembly, the Kazakh president detailed the position of his country and was one of the first politicians to point out the current problem of “inclusiveness.” Tokayev reaffirmed that Kazakhstan supports the UN Security Council's call for the formation through negotiations of a new government that would be inclusive and representative. In his words, “It is necessary to create a consensus-based system in which groups with different values or ethnic, religious and gender backgrounds can coexist in one country.” For a better understanding and retrospective assessment of Astana's actions on the “Afghan track,” it is worth citing other theses mentioned by the president in New York at a time when most of the world was still doubting the success of the Taliban campaign. "Afghanistan must continue to fulfill its international obligations and ensure that its territory does not become a springboard for terrorists, drug trafficking, and human traffickers. Regardless of our political or personal convictions, we must not abandon the people of Afghanistan to their fate now. The acute humanitarian situation must be our top priority. UN agencies and other humanitarian organizations must have immediate, safe, and unimpeded humanitarian access. Kazakhstan has provided for the temporary relocation of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and other UN offices in Afghanistan. We are ready to provide a logistical platform for the delivery of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan...

Azerbaijan Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Foreign Affairs Global Diplomacy internal affairs COP29

Central Asian Leaders Arrive in Azerbaijan for UN COP29 Climate Summit

The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) opened in Azerbaijan's capital Baku on November 11, drawing approximately 50,000 participants, including government representatives, politicians, investors, and environmentalists from 198 countries. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev attended the Summit, where he was welcomed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Tokayev will open the plenary session and hold talks with various heads of state, as well as representatives of international organizations and businesses. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has also arrived at the conference and is scheduled to address the opening session on November 12. He will participate in the special session “High-Level Dialogue: Advancing the Mountain Agenda and Mainstreaming Mountains and Climate Change,” organized by Kyrgyzstan with the support of Azerbaijan and Mongolia. This discussion will also feature Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, Nepali President Ram Chandra Poudel, and representatives of international organizations. Russia is represented at the summit by its Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Additionally, representatives of the Taliban, which the UN does not recognize as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, have been included in the delegation for the first time. Armenia, however, has not yet confirmed its participation due to ongoing territorial disputes with Azerbaijan. The Summit is being held at the Baku Olympic Stadium, with sessions set to conclude on November 22. COP29 has been termed a “finance summit” due to its primary focus on financing developing nations in the fight against climate change. Delegates are also working to establish a framework to improve national emissions reduction programs.

Politics Diplomacy Palestine humanitarian aid Foreign Affairs

Mirziyoyev Offers to Bring Wounded Palestinians to Uzbekistan for Treatment

On November 11, Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev delivered a speech at the extraordinary Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, expressing concern over the spread of the Middle East conflict into Lebanon. He reiterated Uzbekistan’s support for initiatives to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli issue peacefully and diplomatically. In his speech, Mirziyoyev said, “Uzbekistan fully supports all practical initiatives to address the Palestinian-Israeli problem through peace and diplomacy. We believe today’s Summit will demonstrate common political will and unity, develop effective global and regional mechanisms and specific solutions, and swiftly put them into practice.” Mirziyoyev called for the United Nations and the Security Council to play an increased role in ending hostilities. He emphasized the need for safe humanitarian corridors and the immediate initiation of peace talks. With the Palestinian national holiday on November 15 approaching, Mirziyoyev underscored the nation’s right to an independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital, based on the 1967 borders. He also supported the Global Alliance for Implementing the Two-State Solution initiated by Saudi Arabia. Mirziyoyev called for expanding humanitarian aid to Palestine and Lebanon to prevent the escalation of the crisis and confirmed Uzbekistan’s readiness to treat wounded Palestinian children and women in its hospitals. He announced plans to discuss further assistance at the Gulf Arab States – Central Asia summit in Samarkand next year. Finally, he stressed the importance of preserving the Al-Aqsa Mosque and other cultural monuments in Jerusalem, urging members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to prioritize protecting these historic sites. Mirziyoyev concluded by urging an urgent and unified response to the crisis and highlighting Uzbekistan’s commitment to peace and humanitarian support in the region.