Foreign Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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ASEAN

Uzbekistan Gains ASEAN Approval to Join Cooperation Treaty

Uzbekistan’s efforts to strengthen its ties with Southeast Asia advanced significantly this week after all member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) approved Tashkent’s application to join the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC). The decision was made during a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers chaired by Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, according to the Dunyo news agency. Signed in Bali in 1976, the TAC outlines core principles for regional cooperation, including peaceful dispute resolution, non-interference, renunciation of force, and respect for sovereignty. ASEAN now comprises 11 countries with a combined population nearing 700 million, forming one of the world’s most dynamic economic regions. Uzbekistan’s accession to the TAC is expected to enhance its political and economic presence in Southeast Asia, facilitate state-to-state cooperation, boost trade and investment, and increase confidence among international companies operating in or considering expansion into Central Asia. Political analyst Jahongir Akramov described the approval as a significant diplomatic achievement for Uzbekistan. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia, he said the move aligns closely with Uzbekistan’s foreign policy principles: “Uzbekistan’s joining this treaty can be seen as a very significant diplomatic success. One of the key reasons is that the core principles of the TAC fully match the principles set out in Article 17 of Uzbekistan’s Constitution, non-use of force, resolving conflicts peacefully, negotiating disputes, and respecting the sovereignty of states.” Akramov noted that since 2016, Uzbekistan’s foreign policy has evolved along three strategic vectors, all of which are reinforced by the TAC: “First, Uzbekistan adopted a multi-vector foreign policy. Second, the country has taken major steps to develop economic diplomacy. Third, we have been deepening regional integration. All three of these trends are fully consistent with joining the TAC.” He emphasized that the timing is especially relevant amid growing geopolitical strains: “Geopolitical tensions have intensified, particularly among the United States, China, and Russia. In this situation, participating in platforms such as ASEAN can help reduce pressure and maintain diplomatic balance.” Akramov also positioned Uzbekistan’s move as part of a broader Global South cooperation trend. “Central Asian and ASEAN countries are both part of the Global South. Building closer relations ensures our interests are better represented in shaping new international norms.” Economically, Akramov pointed to ASEAN’s size and diversity as highly advantageous. “ASEAN includes Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country, Singapore, a global innovation hub, Malaysia, an advanced and diversified economy, and Thailand, a leading tourism destination. Closer ties with these states could expand tourism, improve Uzbekistan’s international image, and boost the competitiveness of Uzbek products.” He added that ASEAN’s extensive experience with regional integration offers a model for Central Asia. “As one of the first Central Asian countries to join the TAC, Uzbekistan could take a leading role in fostering ASEAN-Central Asia cooperation. A regional office or cooperation structure based in Tashkent or Samarkand would be a major diplomatic achievement.” However, Akramov cautioned that the partnership would require careful navigation. “Southeast Asia has its own geopolitical tensions, such...

State Visit

Tokayev in Moscow: Balancing Friendship and Strategy

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev begins a state visit to Russia in Moscow today, accompanied by a carefully calibrated message of diplomatic continuity. Ahead of his arrival, Tokayev published an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta affirming Kazakhstan’s “eternal friendship” with Russia, a phrase that has become standard in bilateral rhetoric. While much of the piece reiterates familiar themes of cooperation in energy, trade, and culture, a few notable elements suggest deeper strategic positioning. From the outset, Tokayev appeared intent on striking a personal chord with Vladimir Putin. Mirroring the Russian president’s preference for historical framing, he wrote: “Our peoples have lived side by side for centuries, sharing joys and trials, and together creating a single cultural space in Eurasia. We are united by a common perception of traditional values, similar views on current issues of modern life, and joint work to ensure the well-being of our brotherly peoples.” The Kazakh leader also offered high praise for Putin’s leadership, describing bilateral ties as “mature and stable” and built on “deep trust, respect, and equality.” “All achievements in bilateral cooperation are inextricably linked to the energetic and productive efforts of President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin,” Tokayev wrote. “In Kazakhstan, he enjoys unwavering respect as a statesman of global stature, and his name is on the lips of politicians and ordinary people in virtually every country in the world.” The visit’s key moment will be the signing of a Declaration elevating Kazakhstan-Russia ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance”, a step Tokayev described as ushering in “a new era in bilateral relations.” More intriguing, however, was Tokayev’s commentary on Russia’s global standing, wherein Tokayev referenced recent high-level talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, U.S. President Donald Trump, and leaders across Europe, Asia, and Africa. “Although many of them are at opposite ends of the geopolitical spectrum, they all recognize the exceptional role of Russia and its leader in resolving key issues in international relations. In other words, it is impossible to overcome the contradictions of the modern world without Moscow's participation,” he stated. While Tokayev has previously dismissed the idea of Kazakhstan acting as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, his recent statements suggest Astana may be prepared to play a supporting role in future dialogue. “Kazakhstan is not a mediator in the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and does not see itself as such,” he said last month. “In my opinion, both sides are capable of conducting dialogue on all contentious issues on a bilateral basis and at different levels. I have always believed and publicly stated that the ‘Ukrainian crisis’ is extremely complex and cannot be simplified.” Nonetheless, Tokayev offered practical insights into what a negotiation process would require, stressing the importance of expert-level preparation and dismissing the idea of hastily organized summits without a ceasefire or clear agenda as “unrealistic.” “If the leaders of Russia and Ukraine are willing to come to Kazakhstan, we will provide all the necessary services to ensure the success of the negotiations,” Tokayev added. He reaffirmed...

Foreign Affairs

“President of Peace” or “President of the World”? Mirziyoyev’s Interpreter Draws Attention During Comments on Trump

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s remarks at the recent C5+1 summit in Washington drew international attention following a translation error reported in several foreign media outlets. According to his press service, Mirziyoyev told U.S. President Donald Trump that people in Uzbekistan refer to him as a “president of peace,” citing what he described as Trump’s role in helping resolve multiple armed conflicts. However, the simultaneous interpreter rendered the phrase as “president of the world,” leading international media, including Reuters, to report that Mirziyoyev had used that expression. The two leaders had previously met on 23 September at the United Nations headquarters. During that meeting, Mirziyoyev congratulated Trump for contributing to the resolution of “seven conflicts,” specifically mentioning the settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Uzbek news outlet Kun.uz later published a full translation of the conversation in Uzbek. According to that report, Mirziyoyev also stated that Trump was deserving of a Nobel Prize, although this remark was not translated during the meeting. The renewed attention came as Trump announced what he described on Truth Social as an “incredible Trade and Economic Deal” between the United States and Uzbekistan. According to the U.S. president, Uzbekistan has committed to investing and purchasing nearly $35 billion in key American sectors over the next three years, with expected commitments exceeding $100 billion over the next decade. Trump specified that the sectors include critical minerals, aviation, automotive parts, infrastructure, agriculture, energy, chemicals, and information technology. He thanked Mirziyoyev and said Washington looks forward to a “long and productive partnership.” On the same day, Mirziyoyev joined the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan at the C5+1 summit held at the White House and chaired by Trump. During the session, the Uzbek president proposed the creation of a permanent C5+1 Secretariat that would rotate among member states, as well as the establishment of a ministerial coordinating council on investment and trade. He also suggested forming a Central Asian Investment Partnership Fund and a special committee on critical minerals. Additional proposals included collaboration on agricultural technologies, coordination on transport corridors linking Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Europe, and the organization of a cultural heritage exhibition in the United States. Uzbekistan also offered to host the next C5+1 summit in Samarkand.

Foreign Affairs

Washington Steps Up Focus on Central Asia Amid Strategic Competition with China

The United States has intensified its interest in Central Asia following China’s decision to restrict exports of rare earth elements. Amid the broader U.S.–China trade rivalry, Washington is seeking to diversify its sources of strategic raw materials and strengthen economic ties with countries in the region. Analysts note that Central Asia is increasingly viewed as a key part of Washington’s strategy to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains. However, they point to several obstacles, including high logistics costs, underdeveloped export infrastructure, and what they describe as a high-risk investment environment that limits the commercial viability of many projects. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan: Pillars of U.S. Engagement Among the countries of the region, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan offer the greatest potential for rare earth element extraction and present favorable conditions for U.S. cooperation. Kazakhstan is strengthening its partnerships with Western investors in the mining sector, while Uzbekistan has implemented market reforms and opened its economy to foreign capital in recent years. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, currently visiting the U.S., has reiterated his government’s interest in attracting American investment and technology, including through the C5+1 regional format. After his visit to Washington, he is scheduled to travel to Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 12, reflecting Kazakhstan’s longstanding policy of balancing relations among major powers. Kyrgyzstan Banks on the Digital Economy Lacking major oil and gas reserves, Kyrgyzstan is pursuing a different path by developing partnerships with the U.S. in financial technology and digital assets. During talks with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said the country’s most valuable asset is its educated youth, who are increasingly active in the IT sector. Japarov outlined several initiatives, including the introduction of digital financial instruments such as the national stablecoin KGST. He also noted the importance of the U.S. Genius Act, which regulates stablecoin circulation, calling it one of the most progressive in the world. In response, the U.S. expressed its readiness to expand cooperation in digital transformation and fintech development. Tajikistan Prioritizes Energy and Security Tajik President Emomali Rahmon participated in the C5+1 summit in Washington and held separate talks with President Trump. The discussions focused on energy, investment, and regional security. Rahmon said that peace and stability are essential for sustainable development and reaffirmed Tajikistan’s readiness to expand cooperation with the U.S. in green energy and regional electricity transmission projects. At present, more than 70 U.S.-affiliated companies operate in Tajikistan. American investment in mineral extraction and processing is viewed as a promising area for future collaboration. The two sides also discussed joint efforts to combat transnational threats, including terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking. Turkmenistan Maintains Its Neutral Stance In contrast to the active diplomatic engagements of its neighbors, Turkmenistan continues to adhere to its traditional policy of neutrality. Ashgabat has so far refrained from joining initiatives that could be perceived as aligning with geopolitical blocs. Nonetheless, the U.S. remains interested in Turkmenistan’s energy potential, particularly regarding prospects for diversifying gas exports to Europe through the...

C5+1 Summit

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Plans Visit to Central Asia in 2026

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Wednesday his intention to visit all five Central Asian countries in 2026. Rubio made the statement during a meeting with the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The visit is part of a broader diplomatic initiative by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to strengthen ties with the resource-rich region. Today, the presidents of the five Central Asian republics, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (Kazakhstan), Sadyr Japarov (Kyrgyzstan), Emomali Rahmon (Tajikistan), Serdar Berdimuhamedov (Turkmenistan), and Shavkat Mirziyoyev (Uzbekistan), are scheduled to meet with President Trump in Washington. The summit is expected to focus on cooperation in the extraction of rare earth elements and other natural resources in Central Asia. Rubio emphasized the alignment of U.S. and Central Asian interests in promoting responsible and sustainable development of the extractive sector. “You are seeking to use the resources that God has blessed your countries with to create responsible development and diversify your economies,” he said at a reception hosted by the State Department. “I personally intend to visit in the coming year. All five [countries], so I know it would probably be a week-long trip. So we’ve got to work on that and make that happen together.” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau stated that the invitation extended to Central Asian leaders is part of President Trump’s personal initiative to deepen engagement with the region. He highlighted broad opportunities for cooperation in business, investment, and strategic partnerships. Also speaking at the reception, Republican Senator James Risch said he intends to introduce legislation to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a Cold War-era law that restricts U.S. trade with non-market economies.

Afghanistan

Border Violence Between Afghanistan and Pakistan: A New Risk for Central Asia

The escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are forcing a reassessment of Afghanistan’s viability as a “partner space.” With cross-border clashes increasingly resembling a prolonged pattern rather than isolated incidents, and with both sides showing little willingness to compromise, the question grows more urgent: Can Afghanistan realistically become a partner for Central Asian countries, or is it destined to remain a persistent source of regional instability? This confrontation is deeply unsettling for the countries of Central Asia. Still in the early stages of formulating coherent policies toward Afghanistan, they have tentatively linked their development strategies to the hope of having a stable neighbor to the south – one that might serve as a bridge to South Asia. Against this backdrop, deteriorating Afghan-Pakistani relations breed more frustration and anxiety than hope. No country in the world, except Russia, has recognized the Taliban regime de jure. This broad reluctance reflects deep skepticism; few are willing to assume legal obligations or share responsibility for Kabul’s actions. Yet, Afghanistan remains far from isolated. Its geographic centrality makes it impossible to ignore. Accordingly, Central Asia has developed a distinct approach to dealing with its southern neighbor. It can be summarized as: We do not recognize, but we cooperate; we do not trust, but we verify; we do not agree, but we engage. In essence, Afghanistan’s neighbors, particularly the ones in Central Asia, have adopted a pragmatic, long-term strategy: engage without illusions or formal recognition, while maintaining the flexibility to adjust based on Kabul’s behavior. For these countries, Afghanistan does not stand as an independent priority. Its role is evaluated solely within the broader regional framework. In the most favorable scenario, Afghanistan serves as a transit corridor linking South and Central Asia. Yet even this utility is not indispensable; viable alternatives through Iran, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and China already exist and are expanding. Looking ahead, three broad scenarios can be envisioned: Optimistic: The Taliban demonstrate readiness for responsible engagement. This would enable Afghanistan’s gradual integration into trade and transport initiatives, expansion of economic ties, and a firm establishment as a bridge between Central and South Asia. Pessimistic: Afghanistan remains a chronic risk factor and flashpoint for regional crises. The ongoing Afghan-Pakistani confrontation, no longer a fleeting episode but an entrenched conflict, is a clear warning sign. If this becomes the norm, it will deter serious investment, no stakeholder will commit to a country that cannot guarantee peace with its neighbors. Inertia: Central Asian states continue their cautious balancing act under the logic that “a bad peace is better than a good war.” While cooperation continues at a minimal level, countries prioritize alternative routes and avoid deep commitments. Under this status quo, ambitious projects like the Trans-Afghanistan Railway and the TAPI pipeline are unlikely to materialize. The former risks losing the “trans” prefix; the latter may, for now, become little more than a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan venture. Nonetheless, there remains a window for diplomacy. Pressured by Turkey and Qatar, Kabul and Islamabad have agreed to resume negotiations aimed...