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Iran

Central Asia Updates from Mideast Conflict

Kazakhstan has expressed sorrow over the deaths of young students in what appeared to be an air strike that hit a girls’ primary school in the southern Iranian city of Minab. “I received the news of the death of 160 schoolgirls in Iran - with deep distress. The interruption of the lives of children, who must get education and step into the future on a peaceful day, is an irreplaceable tragedy for all humanity,” Education Minister Zhuldyz Suleimenova said on Facebook on Monday. “As a parent, I believe that children should never be victims of any kind of conflict, or political disputes,” Suleimenova said. “Their safety and well-being is one of the most important values for the international community and for every state.” Health officials and state media in Iran have reported a higher death toll of at least 175 in the destruction at the school on Saturday, saying most of the dead were probably children. The U.S. military said it was looking into reports of civilian casualties during its operations against the Iranian government. Some reports say the school that was hit is near an Iranian military installation, one of many targeted by U.S. and Israeli strikes since the military air campaign began on Saturday. Kyrgyzstan is working to help hundreds of its citizens who are stranded in Gulf countries because of the Mideast conflict. Diplomats are negotiating with hotels to make sure that Kyrgyz nationals are not evicted, Seitek Zhumakadyr uulu, head of the consular department of Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on Monday. He said there are 800 stranded Kyrgyz citizens in Qatar and about 1,000 in the United Arab Emirates, according to Kyrgyzstan’s state news agency Kabar. Most Kyrgyz citizens in Saudi Arabia are performing Umrah, the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, the official said. Thousands of pilgrims have been affected by the air strikes on Iran and retaliation by Iranian forces. Airspace in many parts of the region is closed to commercial traffic and airlines have suspended flights. However, Ulukbek Maripov, Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador in Saudi Arabia, has said that airports there are operating relatively well. There are no reports of Kyrgyz civilian casualties in the conflict. Uzbekistan’s diplomats in Turkmenistan's capital Ashgabat are arranging assistance for Uzbek citizens who want to leave Iran and cross into neighboring Turkmenistan. “Embassy officials will meet citizens at the Turkmen-Iranian border crossing in the city of Sarakhs,” Uzbekistan’s state news agency Dunyo reported. “Official vehicles of the Embassy of Uzbekistan in Ashgabat have been mobilized to facilitate onward travel arrangements.” The Iranian city of Sarakhs is a key transit point for trade between Iran and Central Asia. The border between Iran and Turkmenistan is more than 1,000 kilometers. A Tajik citizen who was leaving Iran by crossing into Azerbaijan needed medical assistance at the border. “A female citizen of Tajikistan experienced health problems during the evacuation from Iran via the Azerbaijani border,” the Azerbaijani Press Agency reported. “She applied to a doctor present at the checkpoint. The Tajik citizen...

Iran

Central Asian Countries Scramble to Help Nationals in Mideast Conflict Zone

With the Mideast conflict entering a second day, Central Asian governments have urged their citizens in the region to take precautions, including following the instructions of local authorities and staying away from mass gatherings. Five civilians from Tajikistan are among foreigners from a range of countries who have crossed from Iran into Azerbaijan since the United States and Israel launched air strikes at Iranian targets on Saturday, the Azerbaijani Press Agency reported. Others who have crossed include 18 Saudi diplomats, four diplomats from Jordan and hundreds of Russian civilians. Canada and Spain have communicated with Azerbaijan about the possible evacuation of their citizens as well. One citizen of Azerbaijan in the region has been injured, but is in good condition and receiving support from diplomatic staff, said Aykhan Hajizade, spokesman for Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was quoted by state news agency Azertac. Uzbekistan said there are no casualties among its 81 citizens in Iran. The nationals from Uzbekistan include eight employees of diplomatic missions, nine students in the city of Qom, nine who are in Iran on private visits and 55 permanent residents. “The Embassy maintains constant contact with compatriots,” the Uzbek government said. Iran responded to the air strikes with retaliatory waves of missiles and drones aimed at Israel as well as U.S. military facilities and civilian areas across the region. “Air traffic has been suspended due to temporary restrictions on the use of airspace,” Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a message on Telegram to its nationals in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The ministry urged them to fully comply with local laws, avoid going out unnecessarily and stay away from crowded places, and rely only on official sources of information. Kazakhstan said it was working on “round-the-clock interaction” with authorities in countries affected by the conflict, and that its diplomatic missions are providing consular and legal assistance to compatriots. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has opened hotlines. “Lists of citizens in the region, including transit zones, are being updated,” the ministry said. “Operational chats have been created in messengers where compatriots can get answers to their questions and information about the situation in the country, including recommendations.” The ministry said it was collecting information about the number of Kazakhstani citizens in the “escalation zone,” and that it was difficult to specify the exact number. There have been no reports so far of casualties among people from Kazakhstan, it said. Last year, Mashhad, a northeastern Iranian city near the border with Turkmenistan and a significant hub for trade with Central Asia, was among the targets hit by the Israeli military. At the time, Turkmenistan facilitated the cross-border transfer from Iran of some people from Central Asia and other regions. So far, there are no reports of U.S. or Israeli strikes on Mashhad since the latest conflict began. The city is an Islamic pilgrimage site and is the birth place of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. He was killed in air strikes on Saturday.

Demographics

Central Asia’s Population Could Reach 96 Million by 2040, Raising Infrastructure Pressures

Central Asia’s population could grow to 96 million by 2040, a trend expected to stimulate economic expansion while placing significant strain on infrastructure, energy systems, and water resources across the region, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS. In an interview with TASS, Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), said demographic growth would be one of the defining factors shaping Central Asia’s long-term development. “By 2040, according to our estimates, the population of Central Asia may reach 96 million. This should become a driver of economic growth, but at the same time such numbers will create enormous pressure on infrastructure,” he said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Central Asia’s population exceeded 84 million in 2025, continuing a rapid upward trend after surpassing 80 million in 2024. Projections indicate that the population could exceed 100 million by 2050, underscoring the scale of demographic and economic transformation facing the region in the coming decades. Podguzov added that the region would require significant progress in energy efficiency, modern transport systems, and water management to ensure sustainable development. He described Central Asia as one of the regions of the world most vulnerable to climate change. According to EDB forecasts, water shortages are expected to intensify, with an annual deficit potentially reaching between 5 and 12 cubic kilometers by 2028. A substantial portion of water resources is already lost due to outdated irrigation and distribution systems. Podguzov said the bank is financing projects to modernize irrigation networks, introduce water-saving technologies, and implement digital water accounting mechanisms across the region. To address these challenges, the EDB has proposed a Eurasian Transport Framework, a network of transport corridors aimed at lowering logistics costs and accelerating trade flows. While existing routes predominantly run east to west, Podguzov emphasized the growing importance of north-south connections, including the potential Trans-Afghan corridor, which could provide access to markets in South Asia and the Persian Gulf. The bank projects that the combined economies of Central Asia’s five countries will reach approximately $600 billion in 2026, positioning the region among the fastest-growing globally. However, Podguzov stressed that demographic expansion, transport development, and water security are closely interconnected challenges that require coordinated policy responses.

Migration

The Number of Migrants from Tajikistan to Russia Has Decreased Significantly

The number of citizens of Tajikistan applying to participate in Russia’s state "Program for the Voluntary Resettlement of Compatriots" has declined sharply, according to data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. The issue drew public attention following remarks by the head of the Russian cultural organization Rossotrudnichestvo, Yevgeny Primakov. He stated that in the first three quarters of last year, 27,700 people received certificates to participate in the program, of whom 21,400 have already relocated to Russia. Applicants originated from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Armenia. However, official statistics indicate that Tajikistan is no longer among the leading source countries. In the first quarter of 2023, Tajik citizens accounted for 37.2% of all applications submitted under the program. By the first quarter of 2025, their share had fallen to 4.1%, moving the country from first place to seventh. In the third quarter of 2025, the share of applicants from Tajikistan dropped further to 2.4%, the lowest level recorded during the period under review. Kazakhstan ranked first in terms of the number of applications submitted. In the second and third quarters of 2025, most applications came from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As a result, Tajik citizens no longer play a leading role in the program, while the relative positions of other Central Asian countries have strengthened. Experts attribute the decline primarily to changes in program requirements. Since January 1, 2024, applicants have been required to demonstrate proficiency in the Russian language. Following the introduction of this requirement, the number of applications from Tajik citizens decreased markedly. Demographic factors may also have contributed. The average migrant family consists of approximately 2.3 people. This profile is more typical of Russian-speaking and non-indigenous populations in the region, which may have influenced the redistribution of applicants among participating countries. Official reports from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs indicate a steady decline in the share of applicants from Tajikistan and challenge claims of mass migration of Tajik citizens to Russia under the program.

Gold Mining

Gold Mining in Afghanistan Raises Security Concerns for Central Asia

Large-scale gold mining in northern Afghanistan is increasingly raising tensions and potential security risks for Central Asia, particularly along the Afghan-Tajik border, according to a report by ExpressAsia. The outlet reports that intensive extraction activities are continuing in border areas adjacent to Tajikistan, where clashes and exchanges of fire have periodically occurred between Tajik border guards and individuals described as illegal miners or smugglers attempting to cross the frontier. Over the past two years, mining operations have expanded significantly, with thousands of units of heavy equipment, including excavators and trucks, reportedly transported to Afghanistan’s Takhar and Badakhshan provinces. Local residents have referred to the rapid industrial expansion as a “gold apocalypse.” Mining is concentrated in the Chah Ab district, as well as the Shahri Buzurg and Raghistan areas, which border Tajikistan’s Khatlon region. The report states that around five Chinese companies and two Turkish firms are operating in the area, along with approximately 30 enterprises linked to Haji Bashir Noorzai, whom analysts widely describe as a major figure in Afghanistan’s narcotics trade, in addition to numerous smaller operators. Badakhshan province is considered one of Afghanistan’s most resource-rich regions. In addition to gold, deposits of rubies, lapis lazuli, platinum, and other valuable minerals are being actively extracted. Official figures cited in the report indicate that gold mining generated approximately $900 million in government revenue in 2025. At the same time, experts estimate that gold worth roughly $60 million is extracted daily in border areas alone. Despite the scale of the operations, analysts cited by ExpressAsia say regulatory oversight remains weak and revenue distribution lacks transparency. A significant share of profits is believed to flow to intermediaries and armed groups, while local communities reportedly receive limited economic benefit. Environmental concerns are also mounting. Ecologists warn that intensive mining has already degraded agricultural land, with some fertile areas reportedly turning into sandy terrain, potentially creating long-term ecological challenges for the region. Additional tensions stem from unresolved border management issues along the Panj River, which forms the natural boundary between Afghanistan and Tajikistan under agreements reached in the 1970s. As the river’s course gradually shifts, disputed islands have emerged, increasing the risk of unintentional crossings by miners and triggering repeated protests from the Tajik side. According to ExpressAsia, Tajik authorities have begun reinforcing riverbanks, a move that could further alter water flow and complicate territorial arrangements as mining activity continues to expand.

Finance

Digital Inequality in Central Asia: Who Is Winning the AI Race in Finance?

AI in Central Asia’s financial sector is no longer a fashionable add-on. It has become a dividing line between leaders and laggards. A comprehensive report by the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the Fintech AI Center highlights a stark reality: while some institutions are building sovereign data centers, others are still attempting to automate basic document management processes. Kazakhstan is setting the pace. In his introduction to the report, Timur Suleimenov, Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, echoes President Tokayev’s digital modernization agenda, writing: “Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming a new paradigm for the development of the national economy… Our country faces the task of not only avoiding being left on the periphery of the global technological trend, but also of using its potential to accelerate economic modernization.” The regional AI race in finance is effectively underway, and the findings reveal deep digital inequality. The Balance of Power: Leaders and Followers A review of AI implementation across the region shows a pronounced technological divide. Kazakhstan remains the undisputed leader. Its banking sector has moved beyond experimental pilot projects. According to the report, AI is most actively deployed in the development of new products (14% of financial institutions) and marketing (13%), where neural networks enable hyper-personalized offerings. A further 10% of institutions use AI in operational activities and compliance. Elsewhere in Central Asia, governments are developing ambitious strategies, but implementation in the financial sector remains limited. Kyrgyzstan plans to launch a National AI Platform under its Digital Transformation Concept for 2024-2028. However, most of the country’s banks remain at the pilot or early implementation stage. Current AI applications focus primarily on decision-making optimization and advertising materials rather than complex financial operations. Tajikistan has positioned itself prominently at the policy level. It adopted an AI Development Strategy through 2040, the region’s first long-term framework, and initiated a United Nations General Assembly resolution on AI for Central Asia in July 2025. Yet in practice, the country’s financial market is dominated by microfinance organizations (MFOs), which are cautious in adopting advanced technologies. Their AI use is largely confined to risk management and documentation, while automation, software development, and data processing lag behind. Only 7% of institutions apply AI in financial consulting and customer support. Uzbekistan has taken a different route, prioritizing international and regional partnerships. In October 2024, the government approved its AI Development Strategy through 2030. Rather than building infrastructure independently, Tashkent is partnering with global technology providers. The state is working with Huawei to develop physical AI infrastructure and deploy ready-made industry solutions. At the same time, Uzbekistan is strengthening its academic capacity, including investments in high-performance computing for Inha University in Tashkent. Regional integration is also central to its strategy: IT Park Uzbekistan has signed a memorandum with Kazakhstan’s Astana Hub to integrate startup ecosystems. This combination, collaboration with global vendors, academic investment, and regional partnerships, is enabling Uzbekistan to narrow its technological gap more quickly. People Instead of Servers Digital inequality is most evident in spending priorities. Investment structures...