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Regional Ecological Summit

Central Asian Countries to Jointly Address Cryosphere Threats

As part of the Regional Ecological Summit (RES 2026) in Astana, the UNESCO Regional Office in Almaty organised a session titled “The Cryosphere of Central Asia: From Scientific Assessment to Joint Climate Adaptation Action,” in cooperation with Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources and Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The event was held under the GEF-UNDP-UNESCO Cryosphere project and in collaboration with Central Asian countries. The session focused on discussing the Joint Subregional Action Programme (JSAP) on the cryosphere, a framework document developed by Central Asian countries with UNESCO’s support. The programme is aimed at strengthening regional cooperation in monitoring and research on glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost, as well as aligning approaches to climate change adaptation, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources. Central Asia is experiencing accelerated glacier melt. Under a high-emissions scenario, the region could lose up to 85% of its glacier volume by 2100 compared to 2020 levels. This would increase pressure on water resources, infrastructure, and communities, while also heightening the risk of natural hazards, including glacial lake outburst floods. As these processes are regional in nature, they require coordinated responses across Central Asian countries. “UNESCO has been actively supporting Central Asian countries in strengthening the scientific basis and advancing regional cooperation on the cryosphere. Today, the key priority is to move from scientific assessment to concrete action. The Joint Subregional Action Programme provides a practical framework for this transition and enhances coordination of adaptation efforts across the region,” said Amir Piric, Director of the UNESCO Regional Office in Almaty. As a key outcome of the session, heads of relevant government authorities from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan responsible for environmental protection issued a joint statement supporting JSAP implementation, reaffirming their commitment to strengthened regional cooperation. “Today it is clear that no country can effectively address climate change challenges alone. Regional cooperation is therefore essential. The Joint Statement reflects the readiness of Central Asian countries to join efforts and develop coordinated approaches to climate change adaptation,” said Nurlan Kurmalayev, Deputy Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of Kazakhstan. The JSAP provides a foundation for coordinated action among countries and partners, defines cooperation priorities, and supports the advancement of climate adaptation measures in the region. The joint statement also opens opportunities to mobilise funding from various sources, including donors, international financial institutions, and the private sector.

EU Sanctions

EU Removes Three Tajik Banks from Sanctions List

The European Union has removed three financial institutions in Tajikistan from its sanctions list. The decision was adopted on April 23, as part of the EU’s 20th sanctions package, according to the National Bank of Tajikistan. The move concerns Spitamen Bank, Dushanbe City Bank, and Commercebank of Tajikistan, which had previously been subject to restrictions introduced on November 12, 2025. “As a result of productive dialogue and cooperation between the relevant authorities of the Republic of Tajikistan and European partners, a favorable basis has been created for reviewing previously imposed restrictions,” the National Bank said. The National Bank also noted that the decision reflects strengthened cooperation between the regulator, government ministries, and the European Commission, as well as the consistent implementation of international compliance standards and improvements in anti-money laundering systems. “The adoption of this decision is viewed as a direct result of expanded cooperation with the European Commission, the consistent implementation of international compliance standards, and the strengthening of mechanisms to combat money laundering,” the statement said. The regulator believes the move will provide a strong boost to the development of the banking sector, increase investor confidence, and expand financial services in the country. The sanctions against the three Tajik banks had originally been introduced under the EU’s 19th package of restrictions against Russia. According to the Council of the EU, the measures included a ban on transactions with certain banks and companies from third countries suspected of facilitating sanctions circumvention. At the time, Brussels considered these institutions potential channels for bypassing restrictions imposed on Russia. The list also included financial entities from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, China, and India. However, specific cases or transaction volumes that led to the sanctions were not disclosed. The wording remained general, referring to “assistance in sanctions circumvention” and “support for the Russian economy.” In response, Tajik authorities worked to secure the removal of the restrictions, providing additional guarantees and information to the EU demonstrating that the banks’ financial operations comply with international standards. For its part, the EU showed readiness to reconsider the measures, taking into account changes in the banks’ financial practices and Tajikistan’s efforts to strengthen domestic financial regulation.

Geopolitics

Political Analyst Karazhanov: Stability Is Central Asia’s Greatest Advantage

International events where Kazakhstan and Central Asia present their agenda and demonstrate the benefits of predictability bring significant advantages to the region. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh political analyst Zamir Karazhanov explains how the region is gradually changing its approach to addressing key challenges. According to Karazhanov, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries, particularly Uzbekistan, have recently begun positioning themselves on the international stage in a far more pragmatic and modern way. A prime example is the speech delivered on April 17 by Kazakhstan’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey. Observers noted that Tokayev outlined the role Kazakhstan is seeking to play in the evolving geopolitical landscape. The key message was that global governance is becoming less effective through traditional institutions, while the role of so-called “middle powers” is increasing. These countries may not define the global order on their own, but they are capable of promoting peaceful solutions, engaging in dialogue, and offering predictability. In addition, on April 22, Astana hosted the first Regional Environmental Summit (RES), which brought together around 1,500 participants from Central Asia, the European Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Middle East. The forum aimed to develop practical solutions to environmental and climate challenges facing both the Eurasia region and the wider world. During the discussions, representatives of Central Asian countries presented a realistic assessment of environmental issues and proposed a number of solutions. Environmental Threats Karazhanov noted that Kazakhstan has long faced difficult environmental conditions. “In addition to urban pollution, we have zones of ecological disaster, such as the Aral Sea. The country [Kazakhstan] hosts numerous extractive industries, and it is landlocked, located deep within the continent. Any environmental catastrophe here would have far more severe consequences than in countries without such constraints. Climate change is intensifying, temperatures are rising, and Central Asia is already experiencing acute water shortages. Without timely measures, the situation could become critical,” he said. According to him, Kazakhstan has long been dealing with environmental migration and has proactively begun building the necessary legal and social frameworks. Conflicts over water resources have already occurred in Central Asia. Karazhanov emphasized the importance of including representatives of countries that regulate the region’s water systems in the Astana forum. “This creates an opportunity for dialogue. Take the example of the two rivers that feed the Aral Sea, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. At one point, Kyrgyzstan suspended its participation in the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea because it felt its interests were constrained. It is essential to create a platform where all five countries in the region are satisfied with water distribution,” he said. He also highlighted Afghanistan as an increasingly important factor that has not been fully accounted for. As the country rebuilds after decades of conflict, its agriculture and other sectors will expand, increasing demand for water from transboundary rivers. “That is why the summit should be viewed in the broader context of regional development and good neighborly...

Russia's War in Ukraine

Over 12,600 Central Asians Identified in Russian Army

A Ukrainian state initiative has identified nearly 13,000 citizens from Central Asia who have signed contracts with Russia’s Defense Ministry and have served or are serving in the Russian army, according to data released by the “I Want to Live” project as part of the Ukraine-Central Asia Inquiry. As of 2026, the project reports it holds personal data on 12,666 individuals from the region. Uzbekistan accounts for the largest share, with 4,853 identified citizens. Tajikistan ranks second with 3,407 individuals, followed by Kazakhstan with 2,389 and Kyrgyzstan with at least 1,439. Turkmenistan has the lowest figure, with 578 identified nationals. The figures represent a sharp increase compared to 2025, when the same project reported around 5,740 individuals from Central Asia. At that time, it also began publishing named lists of recruits from each country who had joined Russia’s war in Ukraine. The issue remains sensitive across the region. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan prohibit their citizens from taking part in foreign conflicts, and several cases have been brought against individuals who returned after fighting abroad. Last year, speaking at the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum, Alexander Bastrykin, Chairman of the Investigative Committee of Russia, said authorities had identified 80,000 individuals who had avoided military registration. “We’ve registered them for military service, and about 20,000 of these ‘new’ Russian citizens, who for some reason no longer want to live in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, or Kyrgyzstan, are now on the front lines,” he said at the time. His remarks highlighted ongoing efforts to replenish military ranks, including through contract-based recruitment and incentives. Observers say such measures, alongside migration trends, may help explain the rising number of Central Asian nationals identified in the conflict.

Emergency Response

Tajikistan to Gain Access to Emergency Financing Under New World Bank Project

The World Bank Group has approved a Contingent Emergency Response Project (CERP) for Tajikistan, providing the country with a financial instrument designed to enable the rapid reallocation of resources in the event of crises and emergencies. According to Tajikistan’s Ministry of Finance, the mechanism allows up to 10% of undisbursed funds from the World Bank’s current investment portfolio to be redirected annually to emergency needs. This gives the government additional flexibility in managing already allocated resources. The mechanism can be activated following an official declaration of a state of emergency. However, preparations for its use are carried out in advance. Experts note that CERP eliminates the need to seek new funding sources by enabling the rapid redeployment of existing funds. These resources can be used to procure food, water, and medical supplies, provide emergency services with necessary protective equipment, and support the agricultural sector. Assistance to households affected by crises is also provided. The mechanism forms part of the broader Rapid Response Option (RRO) framework, which allows governments to swiftly reallocate funds from ongoing projects to respond to emergencies. Tajikistan has already formally adopted this instrument. The Ministry of Finance also noted that CERP will operate in conjunction with the existing Tajikistan Preparedness and Resilience to Disasters Project. According to officials, the combined use of these instruments is expected to strengthen the country’s capacity to respond to potential risks.

Water

Water in Central Asia: Between Reality and Alarmism

The Regional Ecological Summit 2026 will take place in Astana on April 22-24. The event is intended to elevate Central Asia’s water and environmental agenda to the level of systemic solutions. Alongside preparations for the summit, however, an increasingly alarmist narrative is gaining traction among some experts. In this framing, water resources in Central Asia are presented as being in crisis, with predictions of shortages, threats to food security, and even potential conflict. Phrases such as “there is not enough water,” “the harvest is at risk,” and “the region is on the brink” are used with growing frequency. Such assessments are typically based on generalized and dramatized claims that fail to differentiate between countries or specific river basins. This creates the impression of a single, simultaneous crisis, whereas in reality the situation is far more complex. Yes, there is a problem, but it is not sudden or one-dimensional. Water scarcity in Central Asia is real. However, it must be interpreted accurately and objectively. According to expert estimates, up to 40% of water in the region is lost through deteriorating irrigation infrastructure, while more than 80% of water consumption is accounted for by agriculture. Current practice supports these figures. In southern Kazakhstan, seasonal water supply restrictions are regularly imposed. This year, for example, the government approved consumption limits for southern regions due to an expected shortage during the growing season. Uzbekistan has said, in joining the World Bank’s Water Forward initiative, that it aims to introduce water-saving technologies across its 4.1 million hectares of irrigated land and reduce irrigation losses by 25%. Equally important are developments in upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. According to a study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the region exhibits a structural interdependence between water and energy. More than 80% of electricity in these countries is generated by hydropower, meaning water resources are used simultaneously for energy production and irrigation. This creates systemic interdependencies. At the same time, coordination of water releases and electricity generation remains suboptimal, and the absence of long-term regulatory mechanisms has already led to water shortages during certain summer periods. This is a key point: the issue is not so much an absolute lack of water, but the complexity of coordination between upstream and downstream countries, as well as between sectors within individual states. In other words, water shortages in Central Asia are often driven less by natural conditions than by how water is distributed and managed. Particular attention in alarmist narratives is given to Afghanistan and the Kushtepa Canal. Estimates commonly suggest that the Qosh Tepa Canal could eventually divert around 6-10 km³ of water per year from the Amu Darya, although projections vary and depend on how fully the canal is completed and operated. While the canal is not yet fully operational, regional officials already treat it as a serious medium-term risk, with the precise scale of future withdrawals still under discussion. Countries in the region, especially Uzbekistan, have been pursuing dialogue with Afghanistan over the canal and...