Turkmenistan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Politics

Finland’s President Stubb Warns Russia’s Imperial Thinking Poses Risks for Central Asia

Russia’s imperial worldview may pose a greater long-term risk to Central Asia and the South Caucasus than to NATO member states, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with The Washington Post, highlighting concerns that continue to resonate across the post-Soviet space. Speaking with columnist David Ignatius, Stubb referenced Finland’s long and complex history with its eastern neighbor, noting that expansionist thinking remains deeply rooted in Russian political culture. “I think the DNA of Russia is still expansion and imperialism,” he said, arguing that President Vladimir Putin views the collapse of the Soviet Union as a historical injustice. While much of the Western debate centers on potential threats to NATO countries such as the Baltic states, Finland, or Poland, Stubb suggested that more vulnerable regions lie elsewhere. “I think the more worrying aspect for others is the Central Asian countries, the Southern Caucasus and others,” he said, pointing to what he described as a top-down political system driven by the ideology of Russkiy mir, or the “Russian world.” Stubb also spoke about his personal interactions with Russian officials, including Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stressing that meaningful political dialogue remains unlikely while the war in Ukraine continues. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Russian television host Vladimir Solovyov sparked backlash after suggesting that Moscow could conduct “special military operations” in Central Asia and Armenia. The remarks were widely condemned by Uzbek scholars, journalists, and analysts as destabilizing and provocative. More recently, Russian ultranationalist Alexander Dugin, often described as an ideologue of the “Russian world”, publicly questioned the sovereignty of several former Soviet republics, including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. A video of his comments circulated widely online, drawing sharp criticism across the region. Russia’s Foreign Ministry later sought to distance the Kremlin from such statements. Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Solovyov’s remarks did not reflect official policy and reaffirmed that Moscow’s relationships with Central Asian countries are based on partnership and respect for sovereignty.

Trump Administration

U.S. Envoy Gor Visits Turkmenistan As American Outreach to Central Asia Deepens

Sergio Gor, the U.S. special envoy for South and Central Asia, is on a trip to Turkmenistan as the United States expands its relationships with Central Asian countries. Gor is traveling to Turkmenistan on Thursday and Friday and will meet top government officials and business leaders to discuss regional stability and economic collaboration, the U.S. State Department said. “The United States looks forward to engaging with Turkmenistan on new opportunities for collaboration that will benefit both our nations and contribute to prosperity and security across the region,” the agency said. Turkmenistan has some of the largest natural gas reserves in the world, though the government’s tight internal controls have made it difficult for multinational companies to operate there. Gor and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau traveled to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in October, ahead of a Washington summit that President Donald Trump hosted the following month for the leaders of those two countries, as well as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The United States is building deeper trade ties with Central Asia, aiming to benefit from its energy and other natural resources while contesting Russian and Chinese influence in the region. For their part, Central Asia countries are diversifying their relationships with the big powers while looking for opportunities to collaborate as a regional bloc.

Iran

From Tehran to Tashkent: How Iran’s Crisis and U.S. Tariffs Reverberate Across Central Asia

At the end of 2025, Iran once again emerged as a flashpoint on the global political map. Mass protests erupted across the country, fueled by spiraling inflation and economic hardship. At present, the Iranian rial has plummeted to the point where it is effectively worth less than the paper it's printed on. The current wave of unrest, already the largest and deadliest nationwide unrest Iran has seen since 2022, is not occurring in isolation. U.S. President Donald Trump has renewed what his administration describes as a policy of “maximum pressure” on Tehran, and his administration is now pursuing what observers have characterized as a strategy of “pushing the falling,” a move aimed at reshaping the political order of the Middle East. What might this mean for neighboring Central Asia? Tajik political analyst Muhammad Shamsuddinov argues the crisis must be viewed within a broader geopolitical context. “The situation in Iran is directly tied to Trump’s second-term pressure campaign,” Shamsuddinov said, referencing a string of destabilizing events. “These include the 12-day U.S.-Israel war against Iran and the reimposition of U.N. sanctions in September 2025," he added, referring to the 12-day June 2025 conflict between Israel and Iran, during which U.S. forces also struck Iranian nuclear facilities. "All of these have deepened the domestic crisis in Iran.” In a further escalation, on January 12, Trump announced 25% tariffs on countries conducting trade with Iran. The move appears targeted primarily at Russia, China, and India - Iran’s largest international partners, but also has implications for Central Asian economies. In the first nine months of 2025, trade between Kazakhstan and Iran grew by nearly 45%, reaching $310.8 million. Tajikistan, which maintains the closest economic ties to Tehran among Central Asian states, reported trade worth $430.7 million in the first eleven months of 2025, an increase of 28% over the same period in 2024. Uzbekistan, while less directly exposed to Iran than Kazakhstan or Tajikistan, has also moved cautiously in recent years to expand trade links with Tehran, making it sensitive to further sanctions pressure. Turkmenistan, meanwhile, faces its own exposure through gas swap arrangements involving Iran, which could become collateral damage of escalating regional tensions. Iranian investments in Tajikistan are also substantial. Among the most prominent projects is the Sangtuda-2 hydroelectric power plant, estimated at $256 million. The Iranian government contributed approximately $180 million, with an additional $36 million from an Iranian contractor. The remainder was financed by Tajikistan. According to official data, roughly 160 companies with Iranian capital are currently operating in Tajikistan across multiple sectors. In Kazakhstan, around 650 Iranian companies are registered, with over 350 operational, primarily in manufacturing, infrastructure, and agriculture. By contrast, trade between Iran and Russia, a strategic partner since the signing of a bilateral cooperation agreement in January 2025, increased by only 8% in the first nine months of 2025, according to official figures. Despite modest growth, Russian analysts view the figures optimistically. “Growth is happening under challenging geopolitical conditions, with sanctions, logistical restructuring, and financial hurdles,” said...

U.S. Visa Bond

U.S. Expands Visa Bond Policy for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan

The United States has expanded a visa bond policy that increases the upfront cost of short-term travel for citizens of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and dozens of other countries. Under the policy, applicants for B-1 and B-2 business and tourism visas may be required to post bonds of $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000. The State Department set out the latest rules and the country list on its visa bond policy page. The program now covers nationals from 38 countries. In Central Asia, it was applied to Turkmenistan on January 1, and is scheduled to extend to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan starting from January 21. The bond is refundable when travelers follow visa terms and leave on time, but it can tie up large sums for the duration of a trip and may put U.S. travel beyond reach for many applicants. Turkmenistan, where emigration is tightly controlled, sees low numbers of its citizens entering the United States. Department of Homeland Security data for Fiscal Year 2024 indicates that the total number of Turkmen nationals issued B-1/B-2 visas to the U.S. was 1,759. Tajikistan, meanwhile, saw 1,772 visas granted, and Kyrgyzstan 9,625. By way of comparison, Saudi Arabia saw over 54,000 visas granted. The expansion has already triggered public pushback in Kyrgyzstan. In a post on X on Thursday, Edil Baisalov, the deputy chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers and a prominent ally of President Sadyr Japarov, urged the Kyrgyz authorities to review visa-free access for U.S. citizens. Kyrgyzstan currently allows U.S. travelers to enter without a visa for stays of up to 30 days. “I believe that we should initiate a review of our visa-free regime for U.S. citizens following the new visa requirements announced yesterday by the State Department, under which Kyrgyz citizens are required to pay a visa deposit of up to $15,000 when submitting visa applications,” Baisalov wrote. “Visa policy is a matter of parity and mutual respect. If such high barriers are introduced for our citizens, we cannot pretend that nothing has happened.” Baisalov did not specify precisely what changes Kyrgyzstan might pursue, and any escalation risks provoking a dispute with a far stronger partner. The remarks also come as Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian governments seek closer engagement with President Donald Trump’s administration while managing competing pressures from Russia and China. The measure is a setback for Kyrgyz efforts to ease travel barriers with the United States. Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Zheenbek Kulubaev raised visa issues with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau during a meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York in September. So far, Tajikistan has not matched Kyrgyzstan’s public stance, with no prominent statement appearing on Tajik government channels addressing the bond requirement or signaling reciprocity. Discussion has instead focused on what the new U.S. rules mean for applicants, the implementation timeline, and the bond amounts that may be set at the interview stage. For Turkmenistan, the requirement adds another hurdle to an already narrow path to U.S. travel. The country’s...

Iran

The Trump Factor: Why Central Asia Has Remained Silent on Iran’s Protests

The wave of protests that erupted in Iran in late December and spread to at least 27 of the country’s 31 provinces has become the largest since 2022, when mass demonstrations followed the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police. The unrest has raised new concerns across the region about political stability, energy markets, and the risk of external intervention. Rights monitors say protests have been reported in hundreds of locations nationwide, with death and detention tolls still contested. Human rights groups and independent monitoring organizations estimate that dozens of people have been killed and more than 2,000 detained, while Iranian officials have offered varying accounts and blamed violence on what they describe as “rioters.” In Kazakhstan, observers are drawing comparisons to the country’s own January 2022 unrest, officially labeled an attempted coup that ended in a violent crackdown. But beyond the parallels with Kazakhstan’s ‘Qantar’ events, analysts are focusing on the wider implications, particularly the potential impact of Iran’s domestic turmoil on global oil markets. For Kazakhstan, the stakes are heightened by the country’s reliance on hydrocarbon exports and the sensitivity of global energy markets to supply shocks. Any sharp change in Iranian output, even if temporary, could place downward pressure on prices and complicate budget planning for oil-dependent economies across Central Asia. Kazakh financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov has voiced concern that unrest in Iran could trigger a surge in oil production aimed at funding social spending, a move that could drive down global oil prices and harm Kazakhstan’s oil-dependent economy. “Iran could add half a million barrels a day within six months and cause oil prices to collapse, but it would not do so casually. The Middle East is very sensitive and knows how to negotiate. Still, if the protests persist, Tehran might ramp up production to finance social needs. [This would be] painful for Kazakhstan. If Venezuela is a bear cub, then Iran is a grizzly bear in the bushes with its oil,” Rysmambetov warned on his Telegram channel. While political unrest typically raises oil prices by increasing supply risk, analysts note that Iran’s response could be atypical. Faced with fiscal pressure, Tehran may opt to increase production to stabilize revenues, a move that would push prices lower despite heightened instability. Iran’s chronic social issues, exacerbated by inflation and the collapse of the national currency, have fueled public discontent for more than a decade. While the Iranian authorities acknowledge the severity of the economic crisis and have conceded that some demands are legitimate, they have also warned of further hardships. On January 5, the judiciary announced that no leniency would be shown toward those detained during the protests. Russian experts, meanwhile, have framed the unrest in geopolitical terms. Irina Fedorova of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies cited renewed sanctions, critical shortages of water and electricity, and foreign interference as the root causes. However, she dismissed the likelihood of regime change, pointing to disunity among opposition factions. “The difference...

U.S. Visa Bond

U.S. Adds Turkmenistan to Visa Bond List, Raising Entry Costs for Travelers

The Trump administration has added seven countries, including Turkmenistan, to a list requiring some visa applicants to post bonds of up to $15,000 to enter the United States, according to a notice published on the U.S. State Department’s travel website. The measure took effect on January 1. The newly designated countries are Bhutan, Botswana, the Central African Republic, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Namibia, and Turkmenistan. With these additions, the total number of countries subject to the bond requirement has risen to thirteen, most of them in Africa. As reported by the Associated Press, the policy applies to passport holders from the listed countries seeking certain non-immigrant visas who are considered at higher risk of overstaying. According to U.S. officials, the bonds, ranging from $5,000 to $15,000, are intended to ensure compliance with visa conditions. The State Department has stated that the requirement is designed to encourage timely departure from the U.S. Payment of the bond does not guarantee visa issuance; if a visa is denied, or if the applicant complies with all visa terms, the bond is refunded. The policy is part of a broader tightening of U.S. entry rules under President Donald Trump. Recent changes include mandatory in-person interviews for most visa applicants, expanded disclosure of social media histories, and more detailed reporting of personal travel and residency records. For Turkmenistan, the move marks a shift in U.S. policy. Although the six-month suspension on issuing new U.S. visas to Turkmen citizens has been partially lifted, access to the U.S. has, in practice, become significantly more restricted. Heightened scrutiny and increased financial requirements have sharply narrowed the pool of applicants eligible for tourist and business visas. In effect, travel to the U.S. is now largely limited to a small segment of Turkmen citizens who can demonstrate sufficient financial means and meet stricter security and compliance criteria. As a result, the formal easing of visa restrictions has not translated into broader mobility but instead introduced new filtering mechanisms. A similar approach has previously been observed in Turkmenistan’s outbound travel policies. According to turkmen.news, Turkmen travel agencies require a security deposit of $500 when arranging 60-day visas to the United Arab Emirates. The measure is intended to offset fines imposed if travelers fail to leave the UAE after their visa expires. In December of last year, The Times of Central Asia reported that the United States had lifted its suspension on the entry of Turkmen citizens holding non-immigrant visas. That suspension had been imposed under a June executive order signed by President Trump that restricted entry from nineteen countries. A subsequent order expanded controls on nations the White House said had serious deficiencies in screening and vetting procedures, paving the way for measures such as the visa bond requirement. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were also added to the U.S. list. Restrictions on citizens of these countries are set to take effect on January 21, 2026. In July of last year, the U.S. State Department imposed additional restrictions on the issuance of B-1/B-2 visas for Kyrgyz...