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Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. For a decade, he appeared regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL, and now broadcasts his Spotlight on Central Asia podcast in partnership with The Times of Central Asia.

Articles

Tajik-Afghan Border

Deadly Clashes and Gold Mines Fuel Tensions on the Tajik-Afghan Border

Along a short strip of the Tajik-Afghan border, there has been a lot of activity in recent months, including the most serious incidents of cross-border violence in decades. Most of this activity has involved Tajikistan’s Shamsiddin Shohin district, a sparsely inhabited area where the population ekes out a living farming and herding in the foothills of the Pamir Mountains. Why the situation changed so suddenly is not entirely clear, but it is clear that the district is now the hot spot along the Tajik-Afghan frontier. A Dubious Post-Independence Reputation The Shamsiddin Shohin district is in Tajikistan’s southwestern Khatlon region. The district is located near the place where Afghan territory starts to make its northern-most protrusion. The elevation across most of the district is between 1,500-2,000 meters. The district is about 2,300 square kilometers and has a population of some 60,000. Shuroobad, population roughly 11,000, is the district capital, and the entire district was once called Shuroobad. It was renamed Shamsiddin Shohin in 2016 to honor the Tajik poet and satirist of the late 19th century, who was born in the area. Tajikistan and Afghanistan are divided by the Pyanj River, which further downstream merges with other rivers to become the Amu Darya, known to the Greeks as the Oxus, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers. [caption id="attachment_41640" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The road to Shuroobad; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] The Tajik-Afghan frontier is about 1,360 kilometers. Some 70 kilometers is the southern border of the Shamsiddin Shohin district, but it is the first area, traveling downstream, where the current of the Pyanj River slows significantly. In the first years after the Bolshevik Revolution broke out, many Tajiks fled through what is now the Shamsiddin Shohin district into Afghanistan. Some seventy years later, thousands of Tajiks again fled through the district into Afghanistan when the newly independent state of Tajikistan was engulfed by civil war. The United Tajik Opposition (UTO), the group fighting against the Tajik government during the 1992-1997 civil war, made frequent use of the Shamsiddin Shohin area to bring weapons from Afghanistan. UTO fighters had safe havens in Afghanistan, and they often made their way through this district, retreating south of the border and returning via the district once they were rested and resupplied. There are only a few roads in the Shamsiddin Shohi district. The European Union funded the construction of the Friendship Bridge, which was completed in 2017, and connects the district to Afghanistan. It has often been closed by the Tajik authorities due to security concerns emanating from the Afghan side of the border. Anyone crossing illegally from Afghanistan into the Shamsiddin Shohin district could easily hide in the rugged hills and abundance of caves in the area, making it ideal for smugglers and other intruders. Aside from a few small villages along the banks, there are no settlements for 20 to 30 kilometers north of the river. Border posts were built during the time Tajikistan was a Soviet republic. Russian border guards remained in...

1 week ago

Energy deficit

Alisher Sultanov Leaves Office After a Decade of Declining Gas Production in Uzbekistan

Alisher Sultanov was relieved of his post as presidential representative on energy security on December 16, ending some ten years of dubious performance as one of Uzbekistan’s top energy officials. Under Sultanov’s watch as head of the state oil and gas company and then as a top official in Uzbekistan’s Energy Ministry, the country’s oil and gas production decreased, and Uzbekistan went from being a gas exporter to an importer. A Career in the Gas and Oil Sector Sultanov started working in Uzbekistan’s energy sector in the mid-1990s and gradually made his way through the ranks at the state oil and gas company Uzbekneftegaz. In 2015, Sultanov became Uzbekneftegaz’s chairman, serving in that position until 2018. In 2017, Sultanov was appointed Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the fuel, energy, and industrial sector, and in February 2019, he was named Energy Minister. He stepped down as Energy Minister in April 2022, officially for health reasons, but by 2023 was back as presidential advisor on oil and gas, chemical, and energy matters, though that title was changed in July 2025 to the president’s representative on energy security. Stagnation and Decline Uzbekistan does not have large oil reserves. BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy has continually put Uzbekistan’s oil reserves at somewhere around 600-620 million barrels. Uzbekistan does have significant natural gas reserves of at least some 1.1 trillion cubic meters, however, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The country has been working with international partners to explore for new deposits, particularly in areas of the recently dried out Aral Sea. In 2011, Uzbekistan’s average oil production was some 80,000 barrels per day (bpd), and gas production for that year was some 56.6 billion cubic meters (bcm). Uzbekistan was still sourcing from many fields that had been producing since Uzbekistan was a Soviet republic, and it was not surprising that yields from these depleted fields started decreasing after 2011. Sultanov became head of Uzbekneftegaz in August 2015, and that year, oil production had already dropped to some 60,000 bpd and gas to some 53.6 bcm. Both fluctuated only a little over the next three years, ending 2018 at an average of 64,000 bpd and 58.3 bcm. The 2018 figure for gas was the peak production year of the 2011-2020 period, though it fell well short of the 66 bcm Uzbekneftegaz was predicting for 2018. After Sultanov was named Energy Minister in 2019, the figure for gas production fell significantly. In 2019, gas production was 57.5 bcm, but in 2020, only 47.1 bcm, though oil output held steady at 67,000 bpd and 61,000 bpd, respectively. Gas production increased slightly in 2021 to 50.9 bcm, but then dropped to 48.9 bcm in 2022. The decrease continued after Sultanov stepped down as Energy Minister in April 2022, plummeting to 44.2 bcm in 2023 and 42.2 bcm in 2024. With a rapidly growing population and expanding industrial sector, Uzbekistan’s domestic gas consumption was sharply increasing, rising from 43.6 bcm in 2020 to 54.6...

3 weeks ago

Neutrality

Turkmenistan Marks 30 Years of Neutrality

On December 12, 2025, Turkmenistan marks the 30th anniversary of a UN decision granting Turkmenistan the status of a neutral country. Defining what “permanent neutrality” means for Turkmenistan is impossible, as it is a flexible term used to justify a range of policies, both domestic and foreign. This vague special status has not provided many benefits, but has helped Turkmenistan’s leadership isolate the country and create one of the most bizarre and repressive forms of government in the world today. Last Item on the Day’s Agenda On Tuesday, December 12, 1995, the UN General Assembly’s (UNGA) 90th plenary meeting reconvened at 15:20 to consider items 57 to 81 on its agenda. Item 81 was the draft resolution on “permanent neutrality of Turkmenistan.” The UNGA president at that time, Freitas do Amaral, noted to the Assembly that the draft resolution “was adopted by the First Committee without a vote,” and asked if the Assembly wished “to do likewise.” The Assembly did, and after a few brief remarks about the next Assembly meeting on December 14, the session ended at 18:05. That is how the UN officially granted Turkmenistan the status of neutrality. A Great Event The passing of the resolution on Turkmenistan’s neutrality status might have been a case of going through the motions at the UN, but it was a huge event in Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan’s first president, Saparmurat Niyazov, had been campaigning internationally for his country to have “positive” neutrality status since 1992. After this was accomplished, Niyazov often proclaimed this special UN recognition as a great achievement for the country and for himself personally. [caption id="attachment_40725" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Ashgabat’s Independence Square, previously known as Neutrality Square and originally as Karl Marx Square; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] December 12 was quickly announced as a national holiday. On the first anniversary of the UN decision in 1996, the former Karl Marx Square in Ashgabat was renamed “Neutrality Square.” Shortly after, an olive branch motif was added to Turkmenistan’s national flag, symbolizing the country’s neutral status. In 1998, on the third anniversary of UN-recognized neutrality, the 75-meter-high Arch of Neutrality was unveiled in Ashgabat. A 12-meter gold statue of Niyazov that rotated to face the direction of the sun crowned the structure. Niyazov died in December 2006, and in 2010, the Arch of Neutrality was moved from the city center to the outskirts of the Turkmen capital and unveiled again on December 12, 2011. It has been undergoing renovation and will be unveiled yet again on the 30th anniversary of neutrality. [caption id="attachment_40726" align="aligncenter" width="2099"] Former-President Niyazov's likeness atop the Arch of Neutrality; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] In 2002, Niyazov pushed through a law changing the names of the months of the year and days of the week. December became “Bitaraplyk,” the Turkmen word for neutrality, and continued to officially be called that until 2008, when Niyazov’s successor finally revoked the changes and restored the traditional names. That successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, embraced the special permanent neutrality status and, in...

1 month ago

Kyrgyzstan Elections

Kyrgyzstan Election Delivers Wins for Women and the President’s Allies

Kyrgyzstan held snap parliamentary elections on November 30 that seem not to have elicited widespread enthusiasm among the electorate. Not long ago, Kyrgyzstan had the most vibrant political culture in Central Asia. Campaigning for parliamentary elections was a lively period that was impossible not to notice. Parties and candidates were in the news constantly in the weeks before the elections. There were campaign posters and signs, and public events with concerts organized by parties or candidates all around the country. The rapid pace of these latest elections, in which candidates had only 20 days to campaign, might have contributed to voter confusion and apathy on election day, but the elections do seem to have come off without any major controversy. In a country that has had three revolutions in the last 20 years, two of them directly connected to parliamentary elections, a quiet election day is a victory of sorts. Election Day Polls opened at 8:00 local time, and several hours after they closed at 20:00, Kyrgyzstan’s Central Election Commission reported that 36.9% of eligible voters had cast ballots. The last few elections in Kyrgyzstan have seen turnouts of less than 40%. This time, the Kyrgyz authorities were hoping for a significant increase in participation to validate the new system for parliamentary elections approved earlier this year. However, the turnout of 36.9% was only slightly better than the 34.61% of voters who took part in the November 2021 parliamentary elections. As many as 500,000 Kyrgyz citizens are working or living outside Kyrgyzstan, and only just over 26,000 showed up at any of the 100 polling stations in 34 countries. Five of Kyrgyzstan’s last six parliamentary elections were decided based on party lists. The last parliamentary elections were conducted under a split system, whereby 54 of the 90 seats in parliament were selected via party lists, and the other 36 seats in single-mandate districts. This time, all 90 seats were chosen under a majoritarian system, with a twist. The country was divided up into 30 electoral districts, each of which selected three deputies. Kyrgyzstan had a requirement that at least 30% of the seats in parliament should go to women, but that quota has not been observed in recent elections. In the November 30 elections, at least one woman had to be among the three candidates who secured seats in parliament, though up to two women could win in a district (at least one of the winners was required to be a man). Election results confirmed that one woman won a seat in every district, but only one. There were no instances where two women took seats in a district. Also, according to the preliminary election results, all the women who won came in third place in their districts, with one exception. In District 23, veteran MP Elvira Surabaldiyeva took the most votes. Results posted by AKI Press showed that without the requirement of one female deputy per district, only seven women would have become deputies. Name recognition was bound to...

1 month ago

Oil and Gas

KMG Pushes Back on Reports of European Asset Sale Amid Romania Refinery Losses

KazMunaiGaz (KMG) says it has no concrete plans to sell any of its European assets, though pressure is building to at least sell off some of the Kazakh company’s shares in oil refineries in Romania. Reports on November 21 said KMG was looking to privatize up to 50% of its shares in its subsidiary KMG International’s (KMGI) European operations in Europe. The reports were based on a list of recommendations from Kazakhstan’s Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition (APDC), which proposed, as part of the 2026-2027 strategy, that KMGI should have a two-stage tender to sell up to 50% of its stakes. On November 26, KMG denied making any decisions about KMGI businesses in Europe, adding that the APDC’s list of recommendations “includes assets from different sectors, but this in itself does not automatically trigger a sale.” Rompetrol KMGI has 28 companies operating in seven countries, four of them European, but the focus of reports was on the two oil refineries KMGI owns in Romania. KMGI purchased 75% of the shares in the Romanian oil company Rompetrol in 2007, and in 2009 bought the remaining 25% of shares in the company. That sale included the Petromidia oil refinery, with a capacity of some five million tons annually, and the smaller Vega refinery, with a capacity of some 350,000 tons that Rompetrol owns. KMGI also took ownership of the oil terminal near Constanta on the Black Sea coast, some 20 kilometers from the Petromidia refinery. The terminal imports mainly Kazakh oil. KMGI invested billions of dollars in upgrades and modernization of the refineries and the terminal, and finally, in 2017, operations of subsidiary Rompetrol Rafinare (54.63% KMGI and 44.7% Romanian state through the energy Ministry) showed a profit - $80 million. By 2022, profits had slightly increased to $90.3 million, but in December that year, the Romanian authorities changed tax regulations, and in 2023, Rompetrol Rafinare registered a net loss of some $270.5 million, and in 2024, a loss of $78 million. In the first six months of 2025, the company lost $53 million and paid some $771 million in taxes to the Romanian government. Rompetrol Rafinare has complained to the Romanian government that the tax burden is preventing the company from investing in new projects and has brought a legal challenge to the solidarity tax in court. In such a situation, it seems unlikely KMG would easily find a party interested in buying up to 50% of KMGI’s Romanian operation, unless the price was very low. Opponents of the proposed arrangement point to the $7 billion in investment KMG has made over nearly 20 years into upgrading the Romanian refineries as a reason to be patient for a while longer. KMGI KMG has subsidiaries operating in Switzerland, Bulgaria, Turkey, Moldova, and Georgia, as well as in Romania and Kazakhstan. At the start of 2025, there were reports that KMG was considering the acquisition of an oil refinery in Bulgaria from Russia’s LUKoil, so it appeared the Kazakh company...

1 month ago