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Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. For a decade, he appeared regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL, and now broadcasts his Spotlight on Central Asia podcast in partnership with The Times of Central Asia.

Articles

Power Struggle

Kyrgyzstan Braces for Showdown Between President Japarov and Former Security Chief Tashiyev

When Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov suddenly dismissed his long-time friend Kamchybek Tashiyev as head of the country’s State Committee for National Security (GKNB) on February 10, he cryptically said it was “in the interests of our state, in order to prevent a split in society.” Less than two months later, that split could be coming, and there is a possibility the country is headed for a confrontation between the two men and their supporters. The Gathering Clouds Tashiyev returned to Kyrgyzstan on March 19 after being outside the country for more than a month amid a widening corruption investigation targeting Tashiyev and people close to him. On the day he arrived, Tashiyev went to the Interior Ministry’s investigative department, where he was questioned about state-owned company Kyrgyzneftegaz. On March 17, the head of the State Tax Service, Almambet Shykmamatov, said that “Kyrgyzneftegaz was under the complete control of the GKNB.” The State Tax Service is looking into allegations that Kyrgyzneftegaz sold crude oil to private companies connected to Tashiyev’s relatives or associates who then sold the oil back to Kyrgyzneftegaz at a profit. These accusations are not new. Bolot Temirov, the host of the investigative news program Temirov Live, reported about this exact topic in January 2022. Two days after the report was posted on YouTube, police raided the office of Temirov Live, detaining Temirov on narcotics possession charges that were later dropped. Instead, Temirov was convicted of having a fake Kyrgyz passport and using false documents to cross in and out of Kyrgyzstan. At an appeals trial in November 2022, a judge ordered Temirov deported from Kyrgyzstan, and he was taken from the courtroom to the airport and put on a plane to Russia. Several journalists connected to Temirov Live have been detained, and some, including Temirov’s wife, have been imprisoned since Temirov’s expulsion from Kyrgyzstan. The State Tax Service has resurrected the Temirov Live accusations, while insisting that the evidence it collected has no relationship to the Temirov Live report. Tashiyev’s nephew, Baigazy Matisakov, who was the head of the Kyrgyzneftegaz refinery since 2021, was detained on March 18. Tashiyev’s son, Tay-Muras, who is connected to Moko Group, one of the private companies involved in purchasing oil from and then reselling it to Kyrgyzneftegaz, was questioned at the Interior Ministry. An article from March 16 states that the State Tax Service also connected Tashiyev’s brother, Shairbek, to illegal activities in the oil business. Reports about Tashiyev being questioned at the Interior Ministry on March 19 stressed that he was called in as a “witness.” Japarov Goes on the Offensive On February 10, the reason for sacking Tashiyev, who was out of the country at the time, was unclear. In the days that followed, it gradually became apparent that this was more than just a disagreement between two friends who had governed Kyrgyzstan together for five years. Japarov also dismissed top officials in the GKNB, which Tashiyev had headed since October 2020. Officials in the Interior Ministry, the prosecutor...

1 month ago

Afghanistan

From Electricity to Fuel, Central Asia is Doing More Business with Afghanistan

Central Asia is becoming even more important to Afghanistan. After the Taliban returned to power in August 2021, most of the countries of Central Asia established a dialogue with its leadership that focused on business potential, backed up by security promises. This understanding is more important than ever to the Taliban government, as events along Afghanistan’s eastern and western borders have left Central Asia as the only reliable import-export route for Afghanistan at the moment. Booming Trade At the start of March, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce released figures for 2025 that showed trade with Central Asia increased from $1.79 billion in 2024 to $2.4 billion in 2025. While most of the trade is exports from Central Asia to Afghanistan, reports mentioned that Afghan exports to Central Asia -- mostly to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan -- increased by 77 percent, from $122 million in 2024 to $216 million in 2025. A closer look shows that Uzbekistan-Afghanistan trade in 2025 totaled some $1.6 billion. A full figure for Kazakh-Afghan trade in 2025 is not yet available. However, trade between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan amounted to some $525.2 million in 2024. Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhamangarin said at a Kazakh-Afghan business forum in Kazakhstan’s southern city of Shymkent in October 2025 that bilateral trade in the first eight months of 2025 had reached some $335.9 million. These figures are certain to have grown. Fresh agreements worth more than $360 million were signed on the sidelines of the Kazakh-Afghan business forum. On March 6, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a decree ratifying the Preferential Trade Agreement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Trade totals for Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan with Afghanistan are more modest, but, as in the cases of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are set to grow. Kyrgyz-Afghan trade for the 12 months to March 2025 came to some $66 million, but, during a Kyrgyz-Afghan business conference in Kabul commercial contracts worth some $157 million were signed. There are no figures for Turkmen-Afghan trade in 2025, but Turkmen electricity exports to Afghanistan are increasing. Turkmenistan is also preparing to export natural gas to Afghanistan. A natural gas pipeline is slowly being constructed from the Turkmen border to the western Afghan city of Herat, which could start operation as soon as 2027. Tajikistan was the lone Central Asian country to shun contact with the Taliban after they returned to power. Representatives of the previous government of Ashraf Ghani continue to occupy the Afghan embassy in Dushanbe. Tajik and Taliban authorities finally established contacts only in late 2024 but even to this day the two sides rarely meet face-to-face. However, Tajik-Afghan trade in 2025 still totaled some $120 million. Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce noted that most of Central Asia’s exports to Afghanistan are electricity, fuel products, and natural gas. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan export electricity to Afghanistan via transmission lines that were built during the 20 years the Taliban were out of power. Some 80 percent of Afghanistan’s electricity is imported, and most of that (75-80 percent) comes...

2 months ago

Afghanistan

From Security Threat to Economic Partner: Central Asia’s New ‘View’ of Afghanistan

Afghanistan is quickly becoming more important to Central Asia, and the third week of February was filled with meetings that underscored the changing relationship. There was an “extraordinary” meeting of the Regional Contact Group of Special Representatives of Central Asian countries on Afghanistan in the Kazakh capital Astana. Also, a delegation from Uzbekistan’s Syrdarya Province visited Kabul, and separately, Uzbekistan’s Chamber of Commerce organized a business forum in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-i-Sharif. A Peaceful and Stable Future for Afghanistan The meeting in Astana brought together the special representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan for Afghanistan. The group was formed in August 2025. There was no explanation for why the fifth Central Asian country, Turkmenistan, chose not to participate. The purpose of the Astana meeting was to coordinate a regional approach to Afghanistan. Comments made by the representatives showed Central Asia’s changing assessment of its southern neighbor. Kazakhstan’s special representative, Yerkin Tokumov, said, “In the past [Kazakhstan] viewed Afghanistan solely through the lens of security threats… Today,” Tokumov added, “we also see economic opportunities.” Business is the basis of Central Asia’s relationship with the Taliban authorities. Representatives noted several times that none of the Central Asian states officially recognizes the Taliban government (only Russia officially recognizes that government). But that has not stopped Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in particular, from finding a new market for their exports in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan’s special representative, Ismatulla Ergashev, pointed out that his country’s trade with Afghanistan in 2025 amounted to nearly $1.7 billion. Figures for Kazakh-Afghan trade for all of 2025 have not been released, but during the first eight months of that year, trade totaled some $335.9 million, and in 2024, amounted to $545.2 million. In 2022, Kazakh-Afghan trade reached nearly $1 billion ($987.9 million). About 90% of trade with Afghanistan is exports from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. For example, Kazakhstan is the major supplier of wheat and other grains to Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan is the biggest exporter of electricity to Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan’s trade with Afghanistan is significantly less, but from March 2024 to March 2025, it came to some $66 million. To put that into perspective, as a bloc, the Central Asian states are now Afghanistan’s leading trade partner, with more volume than Pakistan, India, or China. Kazakhstan’s representative, Tokumov, highlighted Afghanistan’s strategic value as a transit corridor that could open trade routes between Central Asia and the Indian Ocean. Kyrgyzstan’s representative, Turdakun Sydykov, said the trade, economic, and transport projects the Central Asian countries are implementing or planning are a “key condition for a peaceful and stable future for Afghanistan and the region as a whole.” The group also discussed humanitarian aid for Afghanistan. All four of these Central Asian states have provided humanitarian aid to their neighbor since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021. Regional security was also included on the agenda in Astana, but reports offered little information about these discussions. A few days before the opening of the meeting in Astana, Russian Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Sergei...

2 months ago

Dismissals

Kyrgyz President Dismisses Right-Hand Man to “Prevent a Split in Society”

A political earthquake hit Kyrgyzstan on February 10. The tandem of President Sadyr Japarov and security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev was seemingly broken when Japarov dismissed Tashiyev from his post. The reason given for relieving Tashiyev of his position was that it was “in the interests of our state, in order to prevent a split in society, including between government structures,” which hinted that something serious had caused the rift. Old Friends After the brief tumultuous events of October 5-6, 2020, that saw the government of President Sooronbai Jeenbekov ousted in the wake of parliamentary elections plagued by violations, Japarov came to power and appointed Tashiyev to be head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB). The two have remained in those positions and were often referred to as a tandem. Some believe Tashiyev has actually been the one making many of the important state decisions. Their relationship goes back much further, to the days when Kurmanbek Bakiyev was Kyrgyzstan’s president from 2005-2010. In August 2006, Japarov, Tashiyev, and some other politicians from Kyrgyzstan’s southern Osh area cofounded the Idealistic Democratic Political Party of Kyrgyzstan, which later became the foundation for the Ata-Jurt party. Both Japarov and Tashiyev were supporters of President Bakiyev. When Bakiyev was forced to flee the country after the 2010 revolution in Kyrgyzstan, the Ata-Jurt party became the strongest opposition party to the government that emerged after the revolution. Ata-Jurt won the most seats, 28, in the snap October 2010 parliamentary elections, and among the party’s deputies were Japarov, Tashiyev, and another politician named Talant Mamytov. The three Ata-Jurt deputies helped organize anti-government protests, and during one outside the government building in Bishkek in October 2012, Japarov, Tashiyev, and Mamytov jumped the fence and led an armed crowd to the building. All three were convicted in 2013 of trying to overthrow the government. They were sentenced to a mere 18 months in prison, but did not even serve that, with all three being released in July 2013. Japarov helped lead a protest in Kyrgyzstan’s northeastern Issyk-Kul Province in October that year. A local official was captured and briefly held by protesters, and after order was restored, Japarov was charged with hostage-taking. He fled the country and only returned in March 2017. Japarov was immediately arrested and sentenced to 11 ½ years in prison. A crowd released Japarov from prison when unrest started on October 5, 2020. Tashiyev was among those who quickly put forth Japarov to be Kyrgyzstan’s next leader, and by October 15, Japarov was both acting prime minister and acting president. He appointed Tashiyev to be GKNB chief on October 16. Mamytov was elected speaker of parliament on November 4, 2020. The Dismissal Tashiyev was in Germany receiving medical treatment when Japarov dismissed him. On February 11, Tashiyev commented from Germany on his dismissal, calling it unexpected, but said he would heed the president’s decision. “I served our state, people, and president honorably, and I'm proud of it,” Tashiyev said, and expressed his “gratitude...

3 months ago

presidential election

Is Kyrgyzstan About to Have a Snap President Election?

Kyrgyzstan held early parliamentary elections at the end of November 2025 that were moved forward by a year so that they would not overlap with the campaign for the presidential election scheduled for January 2027. On February 9, a group of 75 former officials and notable figures from various spheres of society publicly submitted a letter to the president and speaker of parliament calling on them to “immediately initiate a new election for president.” While there has yet to be any official response, such a proposal is likely to be accepted, leaving anyone who planned on running against incumbent President Sadyr Japarov with little time to organize a campaign. Early Parliamentary Elections In June 2025, amendments were introduced to the electoral system. The split system of using single-mandate districts and party lists to elect parliamentary deputies was changed to only single-mandate districts, and electoral districts were redivided. This sparked discussions that perhaps early parliamentary elections were needed to fill the 90 seats with deputies elected under the newly-approved system. The argument that tilted the debate toward early elections was that parliamentary elections were scheduled for late November 2026 and the presidential election for January 2027. The general opinion was that having the two elections so close together would make voters weary and unable to fully focus on the presidential campaign. Also, if the vote count was delayed in some districts or there were legal challenges, these processes would be ongoing as campaigning for the presidency got underway. The solution was to move parliamentary elections forward by a year. In September 2025, parliament voted to dissolve itself, and November 30 was named as the date for early elections. The Letter The petition addressed to President Japarov and Speaker of Parliament Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu was signed by former deputies, nine former governors, four former prime ministers, several high-ranking members of the military, academics, artists, and even an Olympic Games medal-winner. The letter praised the current administration for establishing stability in Kyrgyzstan, strengthening the country’s armed forces, resolving long-standing border issues with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, successfully battling corruption, and eliminating organized crime in the country. The letter also mentioned remaining problems such as the growing national debt, poverty, and the outflow of “especially young people” unable to find employment and going to other countries to work. A key point in the appeal for an early presidential election was that it would clear up an ambiguity in President Japarov’s term. Japarov came to power in the wake of the October 2020 revolution that was sparked by parliamentary elections riddled with irregularities. He was elected in January 2021 to a six-year term in office, but in April that year, a national referendum approved a new constitution with a five-year presidential term. Therefore, holding the presidential election this year would bring Japarov closer into line with the new constitution. Additionally, the previous constitution, which had a six-year presidential term, also limited a president to one term in office. The new constitution allows for two five-year terms....

3 months ago