Our People > Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. For a decade, he appeared regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL, and now broadcasts his Spotlight on Central Asia podcast in partnership with The Times of Central Asia.

Articles

Middle Corridor

Can Caspian Cargo Fleets Meet Middle Corridor Demands?

Construction of infrastructure along the Middle Corridor, also called the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route, to ship goods between China and Europe is progressing at a frantic pace. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, it inadvertently gave a new impetus to the development of a trade network through Central Asia and the South Caucasus that had been slowly taking shape since the end of the 1990s. One of the most formidable challenges along the Middle Corridor is boosting maritime cargo across the Caspian Sea. Steps are being made, including some significant recent moves, but the capacity of shipping east-to-west over the Caspian Sea faces challenges in meeting the ever-growing demand for commercial vessels. By Leaps and Bounds In 2022, the volume of cargo through the Middle Corridor was some 1.5 million tons, more than twice the amount transported in 2021. In 2023, it topped 2.7 million tons, in 2024 was about 4.5 million tons, and in 2025 was approximately 5.2 million tons. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Kazakhstan on May 13-14, where his host, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, said the figure could reach 10 million tons “in the near future,” and are predictions it could happen as soon as 2027. The roads, railways, and port facilities along the Middle Corridor are expanding rapidly. However, according to a report from Azerbaijan’s Trend news agency in mid-May, the Azerbaijani Caspian Shipping Company (ASCO) says that since 2013, only “a total of 35 new vessels have been commissioned.” The Merchant Fleets of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan On the eastern side of the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have been working to increase their maritime shipping. Both countries invested heavily in upgrading their Caspian ports, in Kazakhstan’s case at Aktau and Kuryk, and for Turkmenistan at Turkmenbashi City. Since the end of April, both countries have moved to boost their potential to ship cargo across the Caspian. Kazakhstan’s state railway company, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), announced on April 30 that it would build its own maritime fleet starting with six new vessels, each with a deadweight of up to 9,900 tons and able to carry up to 537 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). Once completed, those six cargo ships will join the two dry cargo and three container vessels in the Caspian Sea operated by Kazakhstan’s state maritime shipping company Kazmortransflot. The three container ships – Berkut, Sunkar, and Barys – all started operation in 2019, have a deadweight of 5,200 tons, and can each carry up to 350 TEU. The two dry cargo ships, the Beket Ata and Turkestan, have a deadweight of 5,467 tons and can carry 4,182 tons. On May 12, the dry cargo ship Gadamly arrived at the Baku International Sea Port. The Gadamly is Turkmenistan’s first dry cargo vessel and is able to carry up to 240 TEU. A second cargo vessel, Manzil, should be launched before the end of this year. Arif Aghayev, the deputy chairman of Azerbaijan Railways, said at a ceremony marking the...

3 weeks ago

Rule of law

American Professor and Longtime Central Asia Researcher Denied Entry to Kyrgyzstan

Professor Steve Swerdlow of the University of Southern California (USC) arrived at the Bishkek airport at 4:30 am on May 19, leading a group of 16 students for a trip of a lifetime: two weeks in Kyrgyzstan and two weeks in Kazakhstan. Swerdlow, a veteran Central Asian researcher who had previously worked for Human Rights Watch in Uzbekistan (2010), Kazakhstan (2011), and Kyrgyzstan (2012-2019), had led similar trips to Kyrgyzstan with USC students in 2022 and 2024. This time, however, there were problems immediately upon his arrival at Bishkek. “I was taken out of line at passport control and whisked away to the departure area, and then taken to a little room,” Swerdlow told TCA. “There were three guys there and they said, almost with a smirk, that we only work here and were told not to allow you into the country.” Swerdlow attempted to get clarification as to why he was being denied entry to Kyrgyzstan, but the border officials merely said their instructions were that Swerdlow was not to be admitted. They told him that an official letter stating the reason for the denial of entry would come, but Swerdlow said he was never given such a document. The border officials said he was to be deported on a plane to Istanbul that was due to leave at 10:00 am. The officials gave Swerdlow his passport with a letter in it addressed to the people at Turkish Airlines, who later showed Swerdlow the contents. It said only that Swerdlow was being denied entry to Kyrgyzstan because entry to Kyrgyzstan was “closed” to him. Swerdlow’s passport was returned to him when he reached Istanbul, but there was another complication. Kyrgyz border control officers had told Turkish Airlines that Swerdlow was being sent all the way back to Los Angeles, so his luggage was transferred at Istanbul to a flight preparing to leave for California. He managed to retrieve his luggage from that flight but remains in Istanbul, where he is trying to coordinate with his students, USC, and officials in Kyrgyzstan. The students are Swerdlow’s main concern. The trip was organized with help from the American University of Central Asia in Bishkek, so the students have accommodation, and there are people who speak English helping them. During previous trips, students met with people from Kyrgyzstan’s presidential administration, the human rights ombudsman, and visited parliament. It is unclear if this group will now be able to do the same. Some parts of the trip will almost surely be canceled. Swerdlow mentioned that the group had yurts reserved at Tamga on the shore of Issyk-Kul, the immense alpine lake that is Kyrgyzstan’s premier tourist attraction. “It was going to be a cultural event,” Swerdlow said. “We were going to watch a kok-boru match, attend some cooking classes for local dishes, and a reading of Manas.” Kok-boru is a national sport in Kyrgyzstan, something like polo with players on horseback trying to drag a replicated sheep carcass to goals at either end...

3 weeks ago

State Visit

Rahmon Looks to China as Tajikistan’s Options Narrow

Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon just finished a state visit to China. Rahmon has made trips to China many times during the nearly 34 years he has been in power in Tajikistan, but this visit came during a critical period. Simply put, Tajikistan is losing the international importance it once had, and China might now be the most dependable friend remaining for Rahmon and his country. A ‘Sweet’ Start China established diplomatic ties with all five Central Asian countries at the start of 1992. Just months later, a civil war broke out in Tajikistan that would last until June 1997, but that did not deter China from seeking investment opportunities in Tajikistan. China funded the construction of a sugar plant in Kurgan-Tepe in 1992, and later helped build confectioneries in large cities and towns in Tajikistan, as well as providing 10,000 tons of feed for livestock and, in 1994, extending a $50-million loan to Tajikistan. In April 1996, Rahmon and the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan met in Shanghai and formed the Shanghai Five, which, after the inclusion of Uzbekistan five years later, would become the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China used the SCO to improve economic ties with all the Central Asian members, but while Chinese investment in Tajikistan was far less than in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, it was extremely important for Tajikistan, which was, and remains, the poorest country in Central Asia. After the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, and the start of the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan, China gave equipment and winter uniforms to Tajikistan’s border guards. Later, China also helped fund the construction of Tajik border posts along the frontier with Afghanistan, and Beijing is set to help finance nine more border posts. Security along Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan is also in China’s interest. China shares an approximately 475-kilometer border with Tajikistan. Eastern Tajikistan is mountainous, remotely inhabited, and shares a long border with Afghanistan. China is concerned about the ability of potential enemies to move from Afghanistan through eastern Tajikistan and enter China. That is why, less than ten years ago, China built a small, forward observation military post in eastern Tajikistan, not far from the Chinese border. Militant groups such as the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement, comprised mainly of Uyghurs from China’s Xinjiang Region, and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province, which has explicitly threatened China, are present in northern Afghanistan. Chinese companies have been building Tajikistan’s infrastructure for some 20 years: roads, power transmission lines, the Dushanbe thermal power plant, hydropower plants, factories, and other objects. In 2025, China finally surpassed Russia to become Tajikistan’s leading trade partner, and Chinese-Tajik trade turnover in the first three months of 2026 increased by more than 52% compared to Q1 in 2025. Changing Times China is likely to remain Tajikistan’s leading trade partner and more for the foreseeable future. The geopolitical situation in Central Asia has changed, and not in Tajikistan’s favor. The biggest change for Rahmon and his country...

1 month ago

Power Struggle

Japarov, Tashiyev, and the Kompromat War

Kyrgyzstan has seen three revolutions since 2005. It has been a politically active country since becoming independent in late 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed. But since the current President Sadyr Japarov came to power after the 2020 revolution, he and his long-time friend and security chief, Kamchybek Tashiyev, have stifled expressions of public discontent. For the last five years, Kyrgyzstan’s political scene has been uncharacteristically quiet. But events since Japarov sacked Tashiyev on February 10 have raised speculation that a fierce political battle between the two powerful men now looms ahead for the country. Japarov has already fired the first shots. Accusations of corruption against Tashiyev and his family have led to arrests. But two can play at that game, and the former security likely has compromising information about Japarov and his family. “You Can't Cook Two Sheep's Heads in One Cauldron” The February 10 announcement of Tashiyev’s firing was arguably Kyrgyzstan’s biggest political shock since the October 2020 revolution that saw Japarov go from a prison cell to simultaneously occupying the posts of prime minister and president within ten days. The two had been friends for decades, they started their political careers about the same time, and both quickly rose through the ranks of government during the presidency of Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who was ousted in the 2010 revolution. The day after he was confirmed as president, Japarov appointed Tashiyev to be head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB). The day before Tashiyev was sacked, a group of 75 prominent figures, who included former government officials, released an open letter to President Japarov and the speaker of parliament calling for an early presidential election. The group pointed to the discrepancy over whether Japarov was serving the six-year presidential term mandated in the 2010 constitution or the five-year term stipulated in the constitution adopted in April 2021, three months after the snap presidential election that Japarov won. It quickly became apparent that Tashiyev’s dismissal and the letter were connected. The same day Tashiyev was fired, so were several top GKNB officials, with the sacking of officials said to be close to Tashiyev continuing for days. Japarov’s spokesman said it was necessary to “prevent a split in society.” However, Japarov has avoided any detailed explanation of the reasons for the many changes and repeatedly described Tashiyev as a friend. Member of Parliament Elvira Surabaldiyeva, in an April 24 interview with a Kazakh journalist, said Tashiyev was dismissed because he was planning a coup and had been preparing it for a long time. “The president is going through a very difficult time right now, because his longtime friend tried to remove him from office,” Surabaldiyeva said, and added, “There's a saying: ‘You can't cook two sheep's heads in one cauldron.’ This seems to be exactly the case.” Kompromat Tashiyev was out of Kyrgyzstan when the news broke that he had been fired. He briefly returned on February 13, leaving again on February 17. He returned on March 19 and the...

2 months ago

EU-Turkmenistan Relations

Turkmenistan Opens the Door a Little Wider to Europe

Turkmenistan has historically been a difficult partner to deal with. The Turkmen government’s isolationist policies run counter to deep cooperation with any foreign party, but the Turkmen authorities seem to now perceive that these policies are costing them opportunities and revenue. In one of the latest shifts in foreign policy, Turkmenistan appears to be warming up relations with the European Union, though currently, the EU has its own reasons to boost interaction with Turkmenistan. Let’s Meet For decades, the EU and many other countries and international organizations have gone through frustrating efforts to establish a reliable relationship with Turkmenistan. Ashgabat’s form of governance is based on a cult of personality, a supposedly infallible leader capable of protecting the country from the evils of the outside world. The UN recognition in December 1995 of Turkmenistan’s neutrality was used by its government to seal off the country. It would normally be easy for the rest of the world to ignore Turkmenistan. However, Turkmenistan possesses the planet’s fourth-largest proven natural gas reserves, and it is located on what is developing into a key global trade route. On March 20, the European Investment Bank’s (EIB) regional representative for Central Asia, Olivier Kueny, complimented Turkmenistan for its “ambitions in transport and… projects that reduce greenhouse gases.“ Kueny noted that, “with direct access to the Caspian Sea, [Turkmenistan] is a key node” of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor (TITR). He hinted the EIB could be interested in investing in Turkmenistan’s “rail, road, rolling stock and port infrastructure [that] could help reduce the cost and time needed to move goods between continents.“ On March 26, Charlotte Adriaen, the head of the EU division for Central Asia and Afghanistan, met in Ashgabat with Turkmenistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Myahri Byashimova, to discuss energy cooperation. The two also reviewed EU programs for sustainable energy, trade, and digital connectivity. On the same day, there was also a “New Horizons for Connectivity, Investment and Sustainable Growth” Turkmenistan-EU business forum in Ashgabat. Turkmenistan’s Minister of Finance and Economy, Mammetguly Astanagulov, addressed more than 200 delegates attending the forum, telling them his country is ready to expand trade, transport, and energy cooperation with the EU. Astanagulov noted EU-Turkmenistan trade increased from $1.1 billion in 2024 to $2.1 billion in 2025. EU Ambassador to Turkmenistan Beata Peksa also spoke at the forum. She noted Turkmenistan’s growing role in global transport corridors between Europe and Asia and said the EU is seeking to work more closely with Turkmenistan on improving investment conditions in the country. Peksa also mentioned helping Turkmenistan improve regulatory frameworks and investment in modern technologies to increase efficiency in moving cargo. On April 1, Adriaen met with representatives from Turkmenistan’s State Service of Maritime and River Transportation at the Turkmenbashi International Seaport on the Caspian coast to discuss the port’s role in the TITR and projects at the Balkan shipbuilding yard. And on April 7, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) co-sponsored an “Export Experience Exchange” conference in Ashgabat, the aim...

2 months ago

Nuclear Power Plant

Kyrgyzstan Weighs Nuclear Power as Rosatom Talks Advance

Kyrgyzstan is still in talks with Russia’s state-owned nuclear power company Rosatom about building a nuclear power plant (NPP) in Kyrgyzstan. But on March 3, Kyrgyz Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Daniyar Amangeldiyev, was already speaking about conducting a national referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant. It is clear why Rosatom is anxious to build the NPP, but it is less clear why Kyrgyzstan needs it. Kyrgyzstan’s Road to Nuclear Power Rosatom is active in Central Asia, receiving the contract to build Kazakhstan’s first NPP in June 2025. Uzbekistan had already signed a contract with Rosatom in May 2024, and in late March 2026, the first concrete was poured for the NPP that Rosatom is constructing in Uzbekistan. At first glance, Central Asia might not seem like an ideal market for nuclear power. But after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Finland canceled its contract for Rosatom to build the Hanhikivi-1 NPP, and while several European countries are building or considering building NPPs, Hungary is the only country committed to partnering with Rosatom. With limited prospects for new contracts in Europe, Rosatom is likely to focus on securing additional deals in non-European markets to expand its already extensive portfolio. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry and Rosatom signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a small NPP in January 2022. The initial plan for Kyrgyzstan’s NPP was to build a small RITM-200N with a 55-megawatt (MW) capacity. In May 2025, Director General of Rosatom, Alexey Likhachev, said his company was offering Kyrgyzstan a modular NPP project that could generate anywhere from 110 MW to 440 MW using RITM-200N reactors, equivalent to two to eight units. In late March 2026, Likhachev said current talks with Kyrgyzstan were not only focused on the construction of a small NPP but also a medium-sized NPP. Kyrgyz Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Amangeldiyev said in June 2025 that Kyrgyz officials and Rosatom representatives were already looking at potential sites for the NPP. Reports about the planned NPP in Kyrgyzstan don’t mention the cost of construction, and it remains unclear how many and what size reactors will be installed. According to Uzbek officials, the six 55-MW units that Rosatom was initially contracted to build (the project has since changed) would have cost “less than $2 billion.” An Agreement or Not In March 2024, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Energy Minister Taalaybek Baygaziyev signed an agreement with Rosatom on the development and implementation of the NPP investment project. In September 2025, Altynbek Rysbekov was appointed Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Energy Minister, and he said, “There is a possibility of building a (nuclear power) station, but no fundamental decision has been made yet.” However, Rysbekov’s further comments indicated he supported the idea of building an NPP in Kyrgyzstan, and he reconfirmed that the search for an appropriate site for the NPP continued. On April 3, 2026, Amangeldiyev said negotiations with Rosatom are continuing. “We are collaborating with Rosatom on infrastructure development and personnel training,” Amangeldiyev stated. “Only after...

2 months ago

Qosh Tepa canal

Afghanistan Advances Qosh Tepa Canal While Urging Regional Water Cooperation

Uzbekistan just hosted the Tashkent Water Week forum, and the speaker many wanted to hear from was the representative from Afghanistan. Central Asia and Afghanistan are being hit hard by climate change. This region has endured several droughts already this decade, and indications are that this year will bring drought again. Hanging over the forum was Afghanistan’s plan to complete the Qosh-Tepa Canal in 2028, which will draw water from a river that Central Asian countries also use and further complicate the regional water situation. [caption id="attachment_18865" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Qosh Tepa Canal, artist's rendition; image: TCA, Aleksandr Potolitsyn[/caption] Our Fair Share The forum, which actually spanned only two days, March 25-26, brought together some 80 speakers and more than 1,200 delegates from 19 countries. In the past five years, Central Asia has seen noticeably diminished precipitation, melting glaciers, and record high temperatures, making water conservation a priority. The last days of March saw temperatures soar into the 30s Celsius in southern Kazakhstan. In both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, there were record-high temperatures in February. Rainfall for the last three months of 2025 was also far below normal across Central Asia. When the Taliban government announced in early 2022 that it would build the 285-kilometer-long, 100-meter-wide, 8.5-meter-deep Qosh Tepa to irrigate lands in northern Afghanistan, it added another water concern to Central Asia, particularly the governments in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Afghanistan’s Deputy Minister of Water and Energy, Mujeeb-ur-Rahman Omar, led the Afghan delegation at the Tashkent Water Week. At the forum, he repeated his government’s position that historically, Afghanistan has taken only very small volumes of water from the Amu-Darya River basin, while its northern neighbors have been using large amounts for irrigation for decades. “We believe in the fair and sustainable development of the region,” Omar said, adding, “We intend to develop (water resources) on a legal basis, in accordance with the legal rights of the countries in the region.“ Omar is correct that under international law, Afghanistan has an equal right to water from the Amu-Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers. The river currently marks the border between Afghanistan to the south, and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and a small section of Turkmenistan to the north. There is no separate regional water use agreement between the Central Asian states and Afghanistan. Since none of the Central Asian governments officially recognize the Taliban as the legitimate Afghan government, Russia is the only country that does at the moment, there is no possibility of a legal treaty on water use being signed. So, shortly after the construction of the canal is finished in 2028, some 20% of the water in the Amu-Darya, starting from the point just west of the Tajik-Uzbek border, will be diverted into the Qosh Tepa canal. It is already clear that this will mean the end of some downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan that are on the edge of the Kara-Kum Desert and which are already under strain from insufficient water supplies. Turkmenistan did not send a...

2 months ago

Alatau

Alatau: Inside Kazakhstan’s $20 Billion “City of the Future”

Details about the ambitious plans for Alatau city were presented to a joint session of Kazakhstan’s parliament on March 20. Authorities are moving ahead full-speed on the project to build the new city that one day could be home to some two million people. According to the plans, Alatau will be a unique city, not only in Kazakhstan, but in the world. [caption id="attachment_45827" align="aligncenter" width="1704"] Image: Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM) [/caption] From Village to Metropolis Alatau city is being built on the site of what was the village of Zhetygen, some 50 kilometers north of Almaty. It will occupy an area of some 88,000 hectares, “larger than both Singapore and Seoul.” Relieving the congestion of Kazakhstan’s commercial capital was one of the major concerns when selecting a site for the new city. Another consideration was Alatau’s location along the Middle Corridor, the developing East-West trade route linking Europe and China. Alatau city will have an airport and railway junctions. Alatau city will have four districts – Green, Growing, Golden, and Gate. [caption id="attachment_45826" align="aligncenter" width="1704"] Image: Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM) [/caption] The Gate district will be the business and financial area and is where the airport and railways will be located. It will also be the southern-most area of the city and therefore closest to Almaty. The Golden district will be the “hub of knowledge, healthcare, and innovation,” the location of hospitals and other medical facilities, tech centers, and educational institutions able to take 40,000 students are planned for the district. The Growing district will be the industrial and logistics center for export-oriented trade. It will include clusters for food, chemicals, building materials, and light industry. The Green district, on the shore of Kapchagay Lake and with the Kaskelen River running through it, will be the recreational and tourist area of the city. [caption id="attachment_45828" align="aligncenter" width="1704"] Image: Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM) [/caption] Alatau city lies along the main road between the cities of Almaty and Konayev (the “gambling capital of Kazakhstan"). Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Boumbayev told parliament on March 20 that testing of air taxis to ferry people between Almaty and Alatau would start this year, and within two to three years, operations would open to the public. Bozumbayev said the flight time would be 10-15 minutes. Additionally, expansion of the Almaty metro system is progressing with plans for the Green Line to eventually reach Alatau. Alatau will be a smart city and will be developed under the principle “digital by default,” meaning people will be encouraged to go online as much as possible for goods and services, but will still offer support for those who prefer to use traditional means. Financing The Kazakh authorities are expecting construction of Alatau city to require some 10 trillion tenge (about $20.836 billion) of investment by 2050. Kazakhstan is seeking foreign investment and offering advantageous conditions to foreign companies. Deputy Prime Minister Bozumbayev said, “The tax model is described separately: incentives are proposed to be granted only...

3 months ago

Power Struggle

Kyrgyzstan Braces for Showdown Between President Japarov and Former Security Chief Tashiyev

When Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov suddenly dismissed his long-time friend Kamchybek Tashiyev as head of the country’s State Committee for National Security (GKNB) on February 10, he cryptically said it was “in the interests of our state, in order to prevent a split in society.” Less than two months later, that split could be coming, and there is a possibility the country is headed for a confrontation between the two men and their supporters. The Gathering Clouds Tashiyev returned to Kyrgyzstan on March 19 after being outside the country for more than a month amid a widening corruption investigation targeting Tashiyev and people close to him. On the day he arrived, Tashiyev went to the Interior Ministry’s investigative department, where he was questioned about state-owned company Kyrgyzneftegaz. On March 17, the head of the State Tax Service, Almambet Shykmamatov, said that “Kyrgyzneftegaz was under the complete control of the GKNB.” The State Tax Service is looking into allegations that Kyrgyzneftegaz sold crude oil to private companies connected to Tashiyev’s relatives or associates who then sold the oil back to Kyrgyzneftegaz at a profit. These accusations are not new. Bolot Temirov, the host of the investigative news program Temirov Live, reported about this exact topic in January 2022. Two days after the report was posted on YouTube, police raided the office of Temirov Live, detaining Temirov on narcotics possession charges that were later dropped. Instead, Temirov was convicted of having a fake Kyrgyz passport and using false documents to cross in and out of Kyrgyzstan. At an appeals trial in November 2022, a judge ordered Temirov deported from Kyrgyzstan, and he was taken from the courtroom to the airport and put on a plane to Russia. Several journalists connected to Temirov Live have been detained, and some, including Temirov’s wife, have been imprisoned since Temirov’s expulsion from Kyrgyzstan. The State Tax Service has resurrected the Temirov Live accusations, while insisting that the evidence it collected has no relationship to the Temirov Live report. Tashiyev’s nephew, Baigazy Matisakov, who was the head of the Kyrgyzneftegaz refinery since 2021, was detained on March 18. Tashiyev’s son, Tay-Muras, who is connected to Moko Group, one of the private companies involved in purchasing oil from and then reselling it to Kyrgyzneftegaz, was questioned at the Interior Ministry. An article from March 16 states that the State Tax Service also connected Tashiyev’s brother, Shairbek, to illegal activities in the oil business. Reports about Tashiyev being questioned at the Interior Ministry on March 19 stressed that he was called in as a “witness.” Japarov Goes on the Offensive On February 10, the reason for sacking Tashiyev, who was out of the country at the time, was unclear. In the days that followed, it gradually became apparent that this was more than just a disagreement between two friends who had governed Kyrgyzstan together for five years. Japarov also dismissed top officials in the GKNB, which Tashiyev had headed since October 2020. Officials in the Interior Ministry, the prosecutor...

3 months ago

Afghanistan

From Electricity to Fuel, Central Asia is Doing More Business with Afghanistan

Central Asia is becoming even more important to Afghanistan. After the Taliban returned to power in August 2021, most of the countries of Central Asia established a dialogue with its leadership that focused on business potential, backed up by security promises. This understanding is more important than ever to the Taliban government, as events along Afghanistan’s eastern and western borders have left Central Asia as the only reliable import-export route for Afghanistan at the moment. Booming Trade At the start of March, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce released figures for 2025 that showed trade with Central Asia increased from $1.79 billion in 2024 to $2.4 billion in 2025. While most of the trade is exports from Central Asia to Afghanistan, reports mentioned that Afghan exports to Central Asia -- mostly to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan -- increased by 77 percent, from $122 million in 2024 to $216 million in 2025. A closer look shows that Uzbekistan-Afghanistan trade in 2025 totaled some $1.6 billion. A full figure for Kazakh-Afghan trade in 2025 is not yet available. However, trade between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan amounted to some $525.2 million in 2024. Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhamangarin said at a Kazakh-Afghan business forum in Kazakhstan’s southern city of Shymkent in October 2025 that bilateral trade in the first eight months of 2025 had reached some $335.9 million. These figures are certain to have grown. Fresh agreements worth more than $360 million were signed on the sidelines of the Kazakh-Afghan business forum. On March 6, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a decree ratifying the Preferential Trade Agreement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Trade totals for Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan with Afghanistan are more modest, but, as in the cases of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are set to grow. Kyrgyz-Afghan trade for the 12 months to March 2025 came to some $66 million, but, during a Kyrgyz-Afghan business conference in Kabul commercial contracts worth some $157 million were signed. There are no figures for Turkmen-Afghan trade in 2025, but Turkmen electricity exports to Afghanistan are increasing. Turkmenistan is also preparing to export natural gas to Afghanistan. A natural gas pipeline is slowly being constructed from the Turkmen border to the western Afghan city of Herat, which could start operation as soon as 2027. Tajikistan was the lone Central Asian country to shun contact with the Taliban after they returned to power. Representatives of the previous government of Ashraf Ghani continue to occupy the Afghan embassy in Dushanbe. Tajik and Taliban authorities finally established contacts only in late 2024 but even to this day the two sides rarely meet face-to-face. However, Tajik-Afghan trade in 2025 still totaled some $120 million. Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce noted that most of Central Asia’s exports to Afghanistan are electricity, fuel products, and natural gas. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan export electricity to Afghanistan via transmission lines that were built during the 20 years the Taliban were out of power. Some 80 percent of Afghanistan’s electricity is imported, and most of that (75-80 percent) comes...

3 months ago

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