Our People > Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. For a decade, he appeared regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL, and now broadcasts his Spotlight on Central Asia podcast in partnership with The Times of Central Asia.

Articles

Cotton

Uzbekistan Cotton: Mirziyoyev Decries ‘Slaves to Cotton’ Past

For decades now, anyone driving through Uzbekistan, especially through agricultural areas, would likely at some point along the road have encountered a hill with rocks arranged near the top to spell out “Paxta – Bizning Oq Oltinimiz.” It translates from Uzbek as “Cotton is our white gold” and it was a mantra in Uzbekistan going back to the days of the Soviet Union. However, Uzbekistan’s current president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, does not share this view of cotton’s value to his people and was recently cited as saying the crop turned many people in Uzbekistan into “slaves of cotton.” A Black History of White Gold Going back to the early years after the Russian Tsarist Empire seized what is now Uzbekistan in the 1860s, Moscow viewed the area as an ideal source of cotton and promoted giving over agricultural land for cotton growing. Uzbekistan remained a major cotton producer as part of the Soviet Union and the emphasis on growing the crop increased. Soviet propaganda stressed production of cotton as a patriotic duty and every year, hundreds of thousands of people, including children, were forced into the cotton fields to work as “volunteers” at harvest time. The practice and the propaganda carried over when Uzbekistan became independent in late 1991. If anything, cotton gained a new importance in independent Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan did not have much to sell on international markets and cotton sales were an important means of earning hard currency. This was true for years. In 1995, Uzbekistan’s cotton sales totaled some $1.6 billion and two years later totaled $1.4 billion. While the price of cotton fell on world markets, Uzbekistan’s cotton sales were still bringing in nearly $1 billion in 2008 and in 2013 cotton and textile sales amounted to just over $1 billion. The continued use of forced labor, mainly women and children, drew international criticism and sparked calls to boycott Uzbek cotton. The Cotton Campaign launched efforts to persuade international brands to stop using cotton from Uzbekistan in 2009, with more than 330 brands eventually joining the boycott. But countries such as China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Iran still bought Uzbek cotton and forced labor in Uzbekistan’s cotton fields continued. In 2014, a Human Rights Watch report said, “The Uzbek government forcibly mobilized nearly 2 million adults and children during the autumn cotton harvest to pick cotton in abusive conditions for little to no pay.” Local officials, the heads of factories and other businesses had to meet quotas for the labor force in the fields. Imams used sermons to exhort worshippers to go pick cotton, saying it was a religious duty. The Luster Wears Off Even before he was president, Mirziyoyev indicated he took a different view of the use of forced labor in the cotton fields. In late July 2016, as international pressure was mounting, then-Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Mirziyoyev told all the provincial governors, “Each of you will be held personally accountable for the use of child labor” and added, “If I see even a single child...

2 days ago

Energy Security

Russian Fuel Shortages Revive Tajikistan’s Search for Oil and Gas

On July 10, Tajikistan’s Energy Minister Daler Juma said the country had enough fuel to last two more months. This situation is due to Tajikistan’s dependence on Russian petroleum products, which are in short supply in Russia itself because of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. Located in the southeast corner of Central Asia and ringed by mountains on three sides, Tajikistan has few options to replace those Russian supplies, so the Tajik authorities are preparing to try again to find domestic hydrocarbon supplies. Looking to Strike Oil at Home Estimates of the share of Tajikistan’s petroleum imports supplied by Russia range from 70% to 80%. Tajikistan’s head of civil aviation, Habibullo Nazarzoda, said on July 9 that his country is facing shortages of airplane fuel and is in talks with Turkmenistan. Russia has a prohibition on exporting aviation kerosene that runs from June 1 to November 30. Tajikistan does have hydropower and coal, but neither one of those helps with shortages at petrol stations, and much of the internal transport of people and goods in mountainous Tajikistan is done via the road network. So, Tajikistan is again looking at the potential to develop domestic hydrocarbon fields, this time with the help solely of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). On July 7, the head of the Tajik government’s Geological Department, Ilhom Oymuhammadzoda, said CNPC was already carrying out exploration at several potential hydrocarbon deposits in Tajikistan. “I think [CNPC] will present a progress report on the seismic survey operations by the end of the year,” Oymuhammadzoda told a press conference in Dushanbe. He named the Tajik Depression, in southwestern Tajikistan, and the Ferghana Basin, in northwestern Tajikistan, as two of the more promising sites. However, Oymuhammadzoda indicated that work in northern Tajikistan could require drilling down to a depth of 7,000 meters. Tajikistan’s Search for Oil and Gas Past studies of Tajikistan’s potential oil and gas fields point especially to the southwest of the country as a logical place to seek these hydrocarbons. Southwest Tajikistan is adjacent to gas and oil fields in southern Uzbekistan that have been producing for decades, to fields in northern Afghanistan, where exploration has confirmed commercial flows, and not too far east from the giant gas fields in Turkmenistan. Looking at a map, it seems logical that southwest Tajikistan is part of this same hydrocarbon structure. In 2008, Canadian company Tethys started exploring the Bokhtar area about 100 kilometers south of Dushanbe. Tethys found both oil and gas in the area. In 2012, the Canadian company estimated the area’s gross prospective resources at 8.5 billion barrels of oil and condensate and 3.22 trillion cubic metres of gas. For a small country like Tajikistan, it was potentially enormous, although these resources remained unconfirmed and commercially unproven. However, getting to that oil and gas required drilling wells that were 3,500 meters or deeper, which greatly added to production costs. In 2013, Gazprom International drilled a well at the Sarykamysh field in southwest Tajikistan that was...

2 months ago

Kamchybek Tashiyev

Kyrgyz Court Convicts Former Security Chief Tashiyev, Parliamentary Speaker, and Six Others

The trial of high-ranking Kyrgyz officials accused of plotting to overthrow the government concluded on July 2. All eight defendants, including the former chief of Kyrgyzstan’s security service and the former speaker of parliament, were found guilty and sentenced to four years in prison. However, none will actually serve any prison time as the court ordered them all placed on probation for the next three years. The Letter of 75 It all started on February 9, 2026, when a group of 75 people, including former state officials, released an open letter calling on President Sadyr Japarov and Speaker of Parliament Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu to call an early presidential election. Japarov became acting president in the wake of the October 2020 protests that ousted President Sooronbai Jeenbekov. One of his first moves as acting president was to appoint his long-time friend Kamchybek Tashiyev to be the head of the State National Security Service (GKNB). The presidential election of January 2021 resulted in victory for Japarov, with a concurrent vote approving a change from a parliamentary to a presidential form of government. A new constitution was drafted and approved in a referendum in April 2021. Japarov was elected president under the constitution that was scrapped in that referendum. The previous constitution stipulated a president could serve one six-year term in office. The new constitution allowed a president to serve two five-year terms. The open letter the 75 people published said a snap presidential election could clarify Japarov’s term. But Japarov and others saw the letter as an attempt to oust him from power. On February 10, Japarov sacked Kamchybek Tashiyev and several of the authors of the open letter were detained, with Japarov saying this was necessary to “prevent a split in society.” Japarov was evasive about the reason, repeating that he and Tashiyev remained friends. In the days that followed, a series of top GKNB officials were dismissed, as were the governors of Kyrgyzstan’s second and third largest cities, Osh and Manas (formerly Jalal-Abad), respectively. Several ministers and officials in other state bodies were also changed. The government was restructured so that the GKNB was under the control of the president. Tashiyev was in Germany for a medical exam, and Turgunbek uulu was in Turkey when the open letter was released. Turgunbek uulu stepped down from his position and handed in his resignation as a parliamentary deputy directly after his returned to Kyrgyzstan. Tashiyev returned briefly on February 13, but only stayed in Kyrgyzstan for a few days before again leaving the country. He finally came back on March 19 for questioning by the Interior Ministry and has been in Kyrgyzstan since then, though he kept a low profile. It was clear early on that the state prosecutor was building an attempted coup case against some of the 75 authors of the letter. But Japarov and other officials declined to specify which charges Tashiyev might face, or whether he would face any charges at all. The announcement that Tashiyev was dismissed...

2 months ago

Water Security

New Study Finds Sharp Decline in Amu Darya Flows

Central Asia’s water woes continue to grow worse. The water flow in the Amu Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers, is slowly but significantly diminishing in Tajikistan, where the river originates. A recently released report shows the Amu Darya’s water flow in the middle and lower reaches in Tajikistan has fallen over the course of recent decades by 54-77%. And the report lays the blame firmly on human activity, not climate change. Up In the Mountains of Tajikistan The study published on ScienceDirect looked at data collected over 90 years and concludes that “streamflow decreased by 54–77% in the middle and lower reaches” of the Amu Darya in Tajikistan. Interestingly, the report mentions that precipitation in the mountains of Tajikistan has actually increased between 6 and 13%, but the Amu Darya’s water level is falling because people are using more water. The expansion of agriculture is the reason, accounting for 92% of the water reduction in Tajikistan, but the recent construction of water reservoirs is also playing a role. Lower flows of water were noted on many of the tributaries in Tajikistan that feed into the Amu Darya, including the “Vakhsh, Kunduz, Kofirnihon, Surkhandarya, Zeravshan, and Kashkadarya (rivers),” which showed streamflow reductions of 4–34%. The report said that areas in the upper reaches of the Amu Darya should see increased water levels, but this is mainly due to climate change hastening the melting of snow and glaciers. Once the glaciers are gone, the water will rapidly decrease. Bad News Downstream Water problems upstream in Tajikistan translate to bigger problems downstream in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Both have already noticed a reduction in the amount of water in the Amu Darya, most visibly that the river has not reached the Aral Sea for about two decades now, contributing to the sea shrinking by some 90% since the 1960s. Every year the river recedes further south, forcing downstream communities suddenly without water to relocate. Climate change is now hastening this process in the arid, desert lands along the Uzbek-Turkmen border, but both countries are preparing for a bigger, impending shock. The Taliban started construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in 2022, with the project scheduled to be completed in 2028. While Central Asia was liberally taking water from the Amu Darya for agricultural use, Afghanistan was in no position to claim its share until now. The canal will draw water from the Amu Darya at an area across from Uzbekistan and open up new agricultural land in northern Afghanistan, where food has long been in short supply. The 280-kilometer canal is expected to take some 16-20% of the water left in the Amu Darya after it leaves Tajikistan. Upstream Tajikistan’s falling water levels, of course, mean the Qosh Tepa Canal will also be receiving less and less water. The Combination For most of the 2020s, large areas of Central Asia have been experiencing droughts, prompting the governments there to implement water conservation measures. But as they find more ways to save...

2 months ago

State-Controlled Religion

Turkmenistan’s Chief Mufti Replacement Recalls Earlier Dismissals

Only two people in Turkmenistan, the chairman of the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) and the president, have what could be considered job security. Everyone else is expendable, at a moment’s notice, and that extends to the country’s top clergy. Turkmenistan has replaced the country’s top mufti, and while the reasons for the sudden move are not clear, the removal process is very familiar for Turkmenistan. Frantic Friday On June 19, the mufti of all Turkmenistan, Yalkap Hojagulyyev, led Friday prayers at the Turkmenbashi Ruhy Mosque in Gypjak, some 11 kilometers from the capital, Ashgabat. Saparmurat “Turkmenbashi” Niyazov was Turkmenistan’s first president. The country’s compliant parliament and Halk Maslahaty bestowed the title of “Turkmenbashi,” meaning head of the Turkmen, on Niyazov. Gypjak was Niyazov’s home village, and when he was alive, he spent $100 million building a mosque that could accommodate 10,000 worshipers. After he died in late 2006, he was laid to rest at the nearby mausoleum built specially for him and his family. The June 19 Friday prayers were attended by a special visitor, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who also paid his respects at Niyazov’s mausoleum. After prayers ended, the top figures from the muftiate, the spiritual board overseeing Islamic affairs in Turkmenistan, and select elders from around Turkmenistan met at the mosque for a discussion. That discussion included the announcement that the muftiate had appointed a new chief mufti. That person was Rahman Gurbanmyradov. Gurbanmyradov, who had been the head mufti for Ahal Region, was not at the meeting in Gypjak. He was saying prayers at the Seyit Jemaleddin Mosque in Ak Bugday District, Ahal Region, for a sadaqah (voluntary giving of charity) organized by Halk Maslahaty Chairman Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. Berdimuhamedov was marking the first Friday of the Islamic year 1448, which started on June 16. Back in Gypjak, senior clerics and elders were also considering what to name the new mosque being built in the newly built city of Arkadag, some 30 kilometers outside Ashgabat. Berdimuhamedov succeeded Turkmenbashi as president and held the office for roughly 15 years. During that period, government officials and state media gave him the title “Arkadag,” or “Protector.” Not surprisingly, when one of the elders at the Gypjak meeting proposed naming the new mosque in Arkadag city the Arkadag Spiritual Mosque, there was unanimous support. Why Hojagulyyev was fired is unclear, though there is speculation that Berdimuhamedov had been angry with the mufti since 2023, when Hojagulyyev brought his wife to make the Hajj at state expense. Hojagulyyev had been the head mufti since 2019. Turkmenbashi Tames the Clergy First President Niyazov is credited with bringing the entire state apparatus under his full control in the first years after Turkmenistan’s 1991 independence. However, it took him longer to achieve the total submission of Islamic clergy. Toward the end of 1999, leading Islamic cleric and scholar Khoja Ahmed Orazgylych criticized Niyazov’s public support for the traditional New Year celebration that included dancing around a Christmas tree." The practice dated back to the...

2 months ago

Kazakhstan and U.S. AI Companies Sign Agreements Worth $10 Billion

Kazakhstan took a major step toward its goal of becoming an AI leader in the heart of the Eurasian continent when new investment deals were signed with U.S. companies NVIDIA and Firebird. Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov hosted NVIDIA Vice President Rev Lebaredian and Firebird co-founders Razmig Hovaghimian and Alexander Yesayan on June 15. They signed agreements on artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure cooperation worth up to $10 billion, for Kazakhstan’s Data Center Valley project. Top Ten in Global AI Infrastructure Representatives of the U.S. companies and Kazakh officials at the signing ceremony paid tribute to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for declaring 2026 the Year of AI in Kazakhstan, saying the move emphasized Kazakhstan’s commitment to AI development. Firebird’s Hovaghimian said realization of the agreements signed on June 15 would contribute to putting Kazakhstan in the top 10 leading AI countries worldwide before the end of 2027. Lebaredian described AI development as a “five-layer cake.” “The first layer is energy. The second layer is chips, including those from NVIDIA. The third layer is infrastructure. The next layer is AI models, such as ChatGPT,” and applications, he explained. The NVIDIA vice president said, “Kazakhstan can participate at every level of this five-layer cake.” An Old Power Source for Developing New Technology In the first phase of the project, some $5 billion will go to developing the energy sector. The Data Center Valley is located in Kazakhstan’s northern city of Ekibastuz in the Pavlodar Province. The area has long been known for its vast coal deposits and huge Soviet-era thermal power plant that provides electricity to the area. Kazakh officials have promised an initial 300 megawatts (MW) of power for the AI center, with output gradually rising to some 1000 MW. Kaztelekom chief Bagdat Musin was at the signing and said, “Essentially, Kazakhstan is transforming Ekibastuz coal into digital export revenue.” Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Zhaslan Madiyev said Kazakhstan expects to “generate at least $3 billion in annual export revenue, create new high-skilled jobs, (and) attract leading global technology companies.” Discussions are still underway about exactly how the remaining $5 billion would be spent in developing the second phase of the project. Madiyev mentioned that when finished, Ekibastuz would host a “large-scale computing cluster powered by 100,000 state-of-the-art GPU (graphics processing units) chips, including NVIDIA GB300 and Vera Rubin.” A press release posted by Firebird noted the “three-phase expansion strategy” would enable the project “to scale beyond 100,000 NVIDIA Blackwell and Vera Rubin GPUs by the end of 2027, creating one of the world’s largest AI computing platforms.” Firebird Labs Kazakhstan will also be established, based on Kazakhstan’s International Center for Artificial Intelligence in the capital, Astana. Era of Expanding Kazakh-U.S. Ties The agreements with NVIDIA and Firebird are the latest in a series of deals with U.S. companies since late 2025. President Tokayev announced the plan for the Data Center Valley project in January 2026. In May, a U.S.-linked international consortium signed a deal worth some $1 billion...

2 months ago

Middle Corridor

Can Caspian Cargo Fleets Meet Middle Corridor Demands?

Construction of infrastructure along the Middle Corridor, also called the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route, to ship goods between China and Europe is progressing at a frantic pace. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, it inadvertently gave a new impetus to the development of a trade network through Central Asia and the South Caucasus that had been slowly taking shape since the end of the 1990s. One of the most formidable challenges along the Middle Corridor is boosting maritime cargo across the Caspian Sea. Steps are being made, including some significant recent moves, but the capacity of shipping east-to-west over the Caspian Sea faces challenges in meeting the ever-growing demand for commercial vessels. By Leaps and Bounds In 2022, the volume of cargo through the Middle Corridor was some 1.5 million tons, more than twice the amount transported in 2021. In 2023, it topped 2.7 million tons, in 2024 was about 4.5 million tons, and in 2025 it was expected to be approximately 5.2 million tons. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Kazakhstan on May 13-14, where his host, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, said the figure could reach 10 million tons “in the near future,” and are predictions it could happen as soon as 2027. The roads, railways, and port facilities along the Middle Corridor are expanding rapidly. However, according to a report from Azerbaijan’s Trend news agency in mid-May, the Azerbaijani Caspian Shipping Company (ASCO) says that since 2013, only “a total of 35 new vessels have been commissioned.” The Merchant Fleets of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan On the eastern side of the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have been working to increase their maritime shipping. Both countries invested heavily in upgrading their Caspian ports, in Kazakhstan’s case at Aktau and Kuryk, and for Turkmenistan at Turkmenbashi City. Since the end of April, both countries have moved to boost their potential to ship cargo across the Caspian. Kazakhstan’s state railway company, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), announced on April 30 that it would build its own maritime fleet starting with six new vessels, each with a deadweight of up to 9,900 tons and able to carry up to 537 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). Once completed, those six cargo ships will join the two dry cargo and three container vessels in the Caspian Sea operated by Kazakhstan’s state maritime shipping company Kazmortransflot. The three container ships – Berkut, Sunkar, and Barys – all started operation in 2019, have a deadweight of 5,200 tons, and can each carry up to 350 TEU. The two dry cargo ships, the Beket Ata and Turkestan, have a deadweight of 5,467 tons and can carry 4,182 tons. On May 12, the dry cargo ship Gadamly arrived at the Baku International Sea Port. The Gadamly is Turkmenistan’s first dry cargo vessel and is able to carry up to 240 TEU. A second cargo vessel, Manzil, should be launched before the end of this year. Arif Aghayev, the deputy chairman of Azerbaijan Railways, said at...

3 months ago

Rule of law

American Professor and Longtime Central Asia Researcher Denied Entry to Kyrgyzstan

Professor Steve Swerdlow of the University of Southern California (USC) arrived at the Bishkek airport at 4:30 am on May 19, leading a group of 16 students for a trip of a lifetime: two weeks in Kyrgyzstan and two weeks in Kazakhstan. Swerdlow, a veteran Central Asian researcher who had previously worked for Human Rights Watch in Uzbekistan (2010), Kazakhstan (2011), and Kyrgyzstan (2012-2019), had led similar trips to Kyrgyzstan with USC students in 2022 and 2024. This time, however, there were problems immediately upon his arrival at Bishkek. “I was taken out of line at passport control and whisked away to the departure area, and then taken to a little room,” Swerdlow told TCA. “There were three guys there and they said, almost with a smirk, that we only work here and were told not to allow you into the country.” Swerdlow attempted to get clarification as to why he was being denied entry to Kyrgyzstan, but the border officials merely said their instructions were that Swerdlow was not to be admitted. They told him that an official letter stating the reason for the denial of entry would come, but Swerdlow said he was never given such a document. The border officials said he was to be deported on a plane to Istanbul that was due to leave at 10:00 am. The officials gave Swerdlow his passport with a letter in it addressed to the people at Turkish Airlines, who later showed Swerdlow the contents. It said only that Swerdlow was being denied entry to Kyrgyzstan because entry to Kyrgyzstan was “closed” to him. Swerdlow’s passport was returned to him when he reached Istanbul, but there was another complication. Kyrgyz border control officers had told Turkish Airlines that Swerdlow was being sent all the way back to Los Angeles, so his luggage was transferred at Istanbul to a flight preparing to leave for California. He managed to retrieve his luggage from that flight but remains in Istanbul, where he is trying to coordinate with his students, USC, and officials in Kyrgyzstan. The students are Swerdlow’s main concern. The trip was organized with help from the American University of Central Asia in Bishkek, so the students have accommodation, and there are people who speak English helping them. During previous trips, students met with people from Kyrgyzstan’s presidential administration, the human rights ombudsman, and visited parliament. It is unclear if this group will now be able to do the same. Some parts of the trip will almost surely be canceled. Swerdlow mentioned that the group had yurts reserved at Tamga on the shore of Issyk-Kul, the immense alpine lake that is Kyrgyzstan’s premier tourist attraction. “It was going to be a cultural event,” Swerdlow said. “We were going to watch a kok-boru match, attend some cooking classes for local dishes, and a reading of Manas.” Kok-boru is a national sport in Kyrgyzstan, something like polo with players on horseback trying to drag a replicated sheep carcass to goals at either end...

3 months ago

State Visit

Rahmon Looks to China as Tajikistan’s Options Narrow

Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon just finished a state visit to China. Rahmon has made trips to China many times during the nearly 34 years he has been in power in Tajikistan, but this visit came during a critical period. Simply put, Tajikistan is losing the international importance it once had, and China might now be the most dependable friend remaining for Rahmon and his country. A ‘Sweet’ Start China established diplomatic ties with all five Central Asian countries at the start of 1992. Just months later, a civil war broke out in Tajikistan that would last until June 1997, but that did not deter China from seeking investment opportunities in Tajikistan. China funded the construction of a sugar plant in Kurgan-Tepe in 1992, and later helped build confectioneries in large cities and towns in Tajikistan, as well as providing 10,000 tons of feed for livestock and, in 1994, extending a $50-million loan to Tajikistan. In April 1996, Rahmon and the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan met in Shanghai and formed the Shanghai Five, which, after the inclusion of Uzbekistan five years later, would become the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China used the SCO to improve economic ties with all the Central Asian members, but while Chinese investment in Tajikistan was far less than in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, it was extremely important for Tajikistan, which was, and remains, the poorest country in Central Asia. After the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, and the start of the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan, China gave equipment and winter uniforms to Tajikistan’s border guards. Later, China also helped fund the construction of Tajik border posts along the frontier with Afghanistan, and Beijing is set to help finance nine more border posts. Security along Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan is also in China’s interest. China shares an approximately 475-kilometer border with Tajikistan. Eastern Tajikistan is mountainous, remotely inhabited, and shares a long border with Afghanistan. China is concerned about the ability of potential enemies to move from Afghanistan through eastern Tajikistan and enter China. That is why, less than ten years ago, China built a small, forward observation military post in eastern Tajikistan, not far from the Chinese border. Militant groups such as the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement, comprised mainly of Uyghurs from China’s Xinjiang Region, and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province, which has explicitly threatened China, are present in northern Afghanistan. Chinese companies have been building Tajikistan’s infrastructure for some 20 years: roads, power transmission lines, the Dushanbe thermal power plant, hydropower plants, factories, and other objects. In 2025, China finally surpassed Russia to become Tajikistan’s leading trade partner, and Chinese-Tajik trade turnover in the first three months of 2026 increased by more than 52% compared to Q1 in 2025. Changing Times China is likely to remain Tajikistan’s leading trade partner and more for the foreseeable future. The geopolitical situation in Central Asia has changed, and not in Tajikistan’s favor. The biggest change for Rahmon and his country...

4 months ago

Power Struggle

Japarov, Tashiyev, and the Kompromat War

Kyrgyzstan has seen three revolutions since 2005. It has been a politically active country since becoming independent in late 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed. But since the current President Sadyr Japarov came to power after the 2020 revolution, he and his long-time friend and security chief, Kamchybek Tashiyev, have stifled expressions of public discontent. For the last five years, Kyrgyzstan’s political scene has been uncharacteristically quiet. But events since Japarov sacked Tashiyev on February 10 have raised speculation that a fierce political battle between the two powerful men now looms ahead for the country. Japarov has already fired the first shots. Accusations of corruption against Tashiyev and his family have led to arrests. But two can play at that game, and the former security likely has compromising information about Japarov and his family. “You Can't Cook Two Sheep's Heads in One Cauldron” The February 10 announcement of Tashiyev’s firing was arguably Kyrgyzstan’s biggest political shock since the October 2020 revolution that saw Japarov go from a prison cell to simultaneously occupying the posts of prime minister and president within ten days. The two had been friends for decades, they started their political careers about the same time, and both quickly rose through the ranks of government during the presidency of Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who was ousted in the 2010 revolution. The day after he was confirmed as president, Japarov appointed Tashiyev to be head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB). The day before Tashiyev was sacked, a group of 75 prominent figures, who included former government officials, released an open letter to President Japarov and the speaker of parliament calling for an early presidential election. The group pointed to the discrepancy over whether Japarov was serving the six-year presidential term mandated in the 2010 constitution or the five-year term stipulated in the constitution adopted in April 2021, three months after the snap presidential election that Japarov won. It quickly became apparent that Tashiyev’s dismissal and the letter were connected. The same day Tashiyev was fired, so were several top GKNB officials, with the sacking of officials said to be close to Tashiyev continuing for days. Japarov’s spokesman said it was necessary to “prevent a split in society.” However, Japarov has avoided any detailed explanation of the reasons for the many changes and repeatedly described Tashiyev as a friend. Member of Parliament Elvira Surabaldiyeva, in an April 24 interview with a Kazakh journalist, said Tashiyev was dismissed because he was planning a coup and had been preparing it for a long time. “The president is going through a very difficult time right now, because his longtime friend tried to remove him from office,” Surabaldiyeva said, and added, “There's a saying: ‘You can't cook two sheep's heads in one cauldron.’ This seems to be exactly the case.” Kompromat Tashiyev was out of Kyrgyzstan when the news broke that he had been fired. He briefly returned on February 13, leaving again on February 17. He returned on March 19 and the...

4 months ago

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