U.S.–Turkmenistan Rapprochement: Energy, Neutrality, and Digital Geopolitics
For more than three decades, Turkmenistan has stood apart from its neighbors. Since declaring independence in 1991, it has built its foreign policy around “permanent neutrality,” a status formally recognized by the United Nations in 1995. Neutrality has meant avoiding military alliances, steering clear of regional blocs, and limiting international engagement to carefully managed bilateral relationships. Ashgabat has been especially cautious in its dealings with Washington, keeping contacts minimal while relying overwhelmingly on China to buy its natural gas. That posture is beginning to shift. In 2025, the outlines of a quiet rapprochement between Turkmenistan and the United States are visible. The latest round of Annual Bilateral Consultations (ABCs) in Washington, coupled with Ashgabat’s more active role in the C5+1 regional dialogue, suggests a gradual warming. On September 19, 2023, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov participated in the first C5+1 multilateral summit alongside the U.S. and regional counterparts, highlighting Ashgabat’s more active role in the platform. At the heart of this cautious opening are three themes: energy dependence, security on Turkmenistan’s southern border, and the geopolitics of digital connectivity. Annual Bilateral Consultations: A Structured Dialogue The ABCs were launched in 2010 as part of a U.S. initiative to formalize engagement with all five Central Asian states. They are yearly, structured meetings between senior officials that review the state of bilateral relations across political, economic, and security issues. In August 2025, Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov met Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington for the 11th ABC. According to the U.S. State Department release, the two sides “underscored their commitment to advancing U.S.-Turkmenistan relations, including through security cooperation, increased economic and investment opportunities, the advancement of religious freedom, and deepening engagement through the C5+1 diplomatic platform.” The statement was deliberately brief and omitted sensitive matters such as the partial visa restrictions Washington imposed on Turkmen citizens earlier that year. But the very fact of the meeting, following years of minimal contact, marked a notable warming. From Episodic Contacts to Broader Cooperation The rapprochement has begun to take shape in concrete ways. Trade between the two countries, though still small, nearly doubled in 2024 to reach $218.5 million. Turkmenistan exported textiles, chemicals, and gas-related equipment, while U.S. exports included aviation technology, electronics, and agricultural machinery. Overall, the trade volume remained the second-lowest among Central Asian states, but the sharp increase pointed to a deliberate effort to expand ties. Reflecting this momentum, on June 8, 2025, Turkmenistan’s Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov met with the Executive Director of the Turkmenistan–U.S. Business Council, Eric Stewart, to discuss cooperation across sectors, including energy, cybersecurity, green technology, and education. Security cooperation has grown more visible. Turkmenistan’s long border with Afghanistan has long been a vulnerability, and while Ashgabat avoided involvement in the U.S.-led war, it quietly welcomed assistance to reinforce border defenses and counter trafficking. The U.S. has provided equipment, training, and support for Turkmen border services, a low-profile effort documented in a Congressional Research Service report. Turkmenistan has invested over a billion dollars in Afghan infrastructure projects...
4 months ago
