Infrastructure - The Times Of Central Asia

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Regional Cooperation

Opinion: China’s Regional Strategy Meets Central Asia’s National Bargains

The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway spent decades on the drawing board. Disagreements over its route and financing held it up long after the three governments endorsed the project. In 2024, a Kyrgyz parliamentarian asked railway officials a simple question: “Where will we find $1 billion?” A financing agreement signed in Bishkek on December 16, 2025, cleared a major obstacle. The railway is estimated to cost $4.7 billion. Chinese banks will lend about $2.3 billion to the joint project company over 35 years. China holds 51% of the company, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each hold 24.5%. The partners will provide the remaining funding as equity. In June 2026, Kyrgyzstan’s parliament approved in the first reading a separate $304.5 million loan from China’s Export-Import Bank to help fund its own contribution. That loan has a 25-year term. The joint company’s debt and Kyrgyzstan’s borrowing for its stake are different obligations, but both affect how much value the country will need to earn from the line. Kyrgyzstan wants business around the railway, including terminals and freight services; Uzbekistan gains a direct rail link toward China, while Beijing gains another route west. The governments agreed to build the line, but tariffs and terminal operations will help decide how the returns are shared. The same division between shared goals and separate deals runs through China’s C+C5 relationship with the five Central Asian states. At the second China-Central Asia summit in Astana in June 2025, the six countries signed a treaty on eternal good-neighborliness. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also published a list of 55 cooperation documents. The first 14 cover the regional China-Central Asia framework. The other 41 involve Chinese institutions and counterparts in individual Central Asian countries, including local authorities and companies. The count reflects how the agreements are organized rather than their financial weight. The regional documents cover road permits, customs procedures and green minerals. The country-specific agreements extend into particular industries and investment relationships. Customs cooperation shows how regional talks can lead to bilateral action. At a meeting on May 21–22, 2025, customs chiefs from China and Central Asia agreed to joint border inspections. The next day, Chinese and Kazakh officials conducted an inspection of Nur Zholy-Khorgos. They agreed to accept more trucks from Kazakhstan and recognize each other’s X-ray inspection images to reduce repeat checks. Kazakhstan’s customs authority explicitly linked the inspection to the regional meeting. The agreement illustrates how governments can address a shared concern through negotiations at an individual crossing. The Astana investment agreements reflected different national priorities. Kazakhstan pursued investment protection and applications for China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system, while Kyrgyzstan signed documents on an AI application center and processing industries. These were country-specific arrangements within the wider regional framework. The railway illustrates why some projects require only a few governments to agree. After recurring disagreements over its route and funding, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan reached a financing settlement in 2025. They did not need all five Central Asian governments to negotiate a single position. Kazakhstan already has direct rail links...

Logistics

Kazakhstan’s Warehouse Market Faces Mismatch Between Supply and Demand

Central Asia is seeking a larger role in trade between China and Europe by offering alternative shipping routes that bypass Russia. However, growing interest in transit has not been matched by balanced development of warehouse infrastructure. Some transport hubs face shortages of modern facilities, while others have vacant space. For international freight operators and retailers, this means additional costs. For investors, it raises the risk of financing warehouses that may struggle to attract tenants. These contradictions were discussed on October 15 in Almaty at the Central Asia Warehouse Summit 2026, organized by consulting firm IBC Global. The summit brought together industry representatives and investors. Research presented at the event showed a growing disconnect between warehouse construction and actual demand. Vacant Warehouses Exist, but Not Where They Are Needed According to IBC Global, the vacancy rate for modern warehouse space in Kazakhstan is about 5%. This gives tenants more options when choosing facilities and negotiating rents. However, the national figure masks significant differences between cities and types of warehouse space. Industry estimates put Astana's shortage of modern warehouse space at approximately 350,000–400,000 square meters. Separately, property consultancy Bright Rich reported that Almaty's warehouse vacancy rate had reached 13.3% in May 2026. These estimates come from different periods and surveys, and should not be treated as directly comparable. Class A warehouses are modern facilities with high ceilings, loading docks, security systems, and infrastructure designed to handle large volumes of goods. Kazakhstan's warehouse market is nevertheless expanding rapidly. According to an IBC Global ranking presented at the summit, the total area of Class A warehouses covered by its research increased by 39% over the past year to 730,000 square meters. More than half of that space, approximately 400,000 square meters, is controlled by the five largest property owners. Their facilities are concentrated mainly in Almaty and Almaty Region, Astana, and Shymkent. Developers Continue Building Despite Weaker Demand A survey of more than 100 warehouse market participants across four Central Asian countries revealed a gap between developers' plans and tenants' expectations. According to IBC Global, 81% of developers intend to launch new projects or complete facilities already under construction within the next twelve months. Yet 62% of developers surveyed identified weak tenant demand as the main obstacle to market development, while 52% cited the high cost and limited availability of financing. IBC Global's market sentiment index for Kazakhstan stood at 48.1 points in the third quarter of 2026, below the neutral threshold of 50. However, 52% of respondents expect supply and demand to move closer to equilibrium over the next year. The risks are particularly high for speculative developments launched without a tenant already under contract. Developers expect to secure customers after construction is completed, but by then business requirements and market rental rates may have changed. One alternative is the build-to-suit model, in which a facility is constructed to meet the requirements of a specific tenant. Its location, size, equipment, and operating conditions are agreed upon in advance. This reduces vacancy risk for...

CKU Railway

Opinion: China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Opens New Options Beyond Europe

The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is often presented as a new route to Europe, but its first benefits are likely to be felt closer to home. It could give Central Asian shippers more choice and governments more room to negotiate transport costs, even where sanctions restrict access to European markets. Excavation of the 209.6-meter Kosh-Dobo North No. 2 tunnel was completed on August 5. Work is also underway on other tunnels along Kyrgyzstan’s mountainous section of the railway. CKU is advancing as falling Caspian water levels make the Middle Corridor more expensive to maintain. That could increase demand for alternative routes, although each comes with its own costs and restrictions. Kyrgyz officials have high expectations. Deputy Prime Minister Edil Baisalov told TCA that “this railroad will virtually transform Kyrgyzstan.” Fulfilling that ambition will require the country to earn more than transit fees. Much depends on Makmal, where a transshipment station and possible logistics center are planned. The Torugart-Makmal section will use the Chinese standard gauge of 1,435 mm, while the Makmal-Jalal-Abad section will use the 1,520 mm gauge common across the post-Soviet rail system. Changing gauge adds time and expense as cargo moves between trains. The planned station will handle transfers between the two systems, as well as cargo sorting and train assembly, operations which could support local logistics businesses, provided there is enough traffic. Warehousing and customs services would give Kyrgyzstan a chance to earn more from that traffic. Whether Makmal develops into a wider logistics hub will depend on the services available and their cost to shippers. The mountainous terrain makes the line expensive and slow to build. It also limits the options for competing routes through the Tien Shan. That may strengthen Kyrgyzstan’s negotiating position, but only if the railway offers a reliable service at competitive rates. The trans-Caspian Middle Corridor avoids Russia and Iran, making it more attractive to European companies concerned about sanctions. Yet, as TCA has reported, falling Caspian water levels are raising the cost of the route through Aktau and Kuryk. Low sea levels around Aktau and Kuryk reduce loading efficiency and increase transport costs. Kazakhstan has dredged Kuryk and launched deeper work at Aktau, aiming for a 7.7-meter depth in the operational part of the port. The Caspian route remains workable, but maintaining it requires continuing investment. If those costs rise, shippers will have more reason to compare alternatives. There are also delays to address. In a recent TCA interview, the TITR secretary general stressed the need to speed up the route and ease Caspian bottlenecks as freight volumes grow. A southern route could avoid Caspian transshipment. From Uzbekistan, cargo can move through Turkmenistan and Iran to Turkey. Uzbek, Iranian, and Turkish officials have already discussed linking this corridor with the CKU railway. Some freight already travels south on existing lines. In September, a 55-container block train was dispatched from Kazakhstan’s Altynkol station after crossing from China. Its announced route ran through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to Iran via the Sarakhs border station. It carried...

Water Security

Opinion: Chinese Firms Expand Their Role in Kyrgyzstan’s Water Infrastructure

Kyrgyzstan plays a central role in Central Asia’s water system and is of growing interest to China. According to figures cited by President Sadyr Japarov in April 2026, approximately 50 billion cubic meters of surface runoff are generated annually within the country. About 12 billion cubic meters are used domestically, while around 7 billion, or 14% of the total, flow to China. Kyrgyzstan has five main water-management basins. The Issyk-Kul–Tarim management area includes both the closed Issyk-Kul basin and rivers flowing toward China, making its transboundary component a distinct area of bilateral cooperation. The Aksu River, which originates in Kyrgyzstan and feeds the Tarim River in China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, is particularly important. Estimates put its contribution at 70–80% of the Tarim’s flow. Given Xinjiang’s importance to China’s domestic stability and the Belt and Road Initiative, these shared waters have economic and long-term geopolitical significance for Beijing. Legal and Regional Context Kyrgyzstan and China established a strategic partnership in 2013, but no publicly available bilateral agreement specifically governs the allocation and management of their shared waters. Neither country is a party to the 1992 UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes or the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses. The significant asymmetry in the countries’ economic and negotiating capacities makes the absence of a dedicated water-sharing framework a potential source of vulnerability for Kyrgyzstan. Its importance could grow as water stress intensifies and economic activity in the shared basins expands. For Central Asia, China’s involvement has broader implications. Kyrgyzstan is an upstream country whose rivers supply its downstream neighbors. Chinese participation in water infrastructure adds another external actor to a sector that has historically been one of the most sensitive areas in regional relations. The Changing Nature of China’s Presence China’s involvement in Kyrgyzstan’s water sector includes bilateral assistance for irrigation as well as construction contracts financed by multilateral institutions. These channels coexist, making it important to distinguish Chinese funding from work undertaken by Chinese companies. Kyrgyzstan’s chronic electricity shortage and need to modernize its water and energy infrastructure have created opportunities for greater Chinese involvement. The upgrading of bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era in 2023 provided an additional political framework, with hydropower identified as a priority for practical cooperation. Agreements totaling more than $1 billion were signed at the Kyrgyz-Chinese business forum in Urumqi in August 2023, underscoring the broader expansion of economic ties. Chinese companies are also winning contracts funded by international financial institutions. In September 2025, a Sinohydro Bureau 16–Sinohydro joint venture signed a contract for water-conveyance structures and the powerhouse for the second generating unit at Kambarata-2, financed by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development. The tender had been launched in 2024. The Asian Development Bank lists a $12.8 million contract dated July 2025 for an Issyk-Kul wastewater treatment plant, awarded to a joint venture involving China Road and Bridge Corporation. That contract includes three years...

Astana Finance Days 2026

Astana Finance Days: From BlackRock to Mining and Data Centers

In a trading hall in Astana, BlackRock was explaining why investors have become more cautious. A few floors away, geologists were pitching 23 mining projects, while financiers debated how many megawatts the next wave of artificial intelligence will require. That was how the first day of Astana Finance Days unfolded, as Kazakhstan brought together financial groups managing more than $26 trillion in assets – and sought to show them where that money could be put to work in Central Asia. The ninth Astana Finance Days is taking place on September 9–10 at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), Kazakhstan’s special financial jurisdiction with its own regulator and a court system based on English common law principles. According to the organizers, around 8,000 participants from 90 countries registered for the forum. Institutions represented include BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Capital Group, Brookfield, Rothschild & Co., Hong Kong Investment Corporation, and IFC Asset Management Company. The stated $26 trillion refers to the combined assets under management of participating firms worldwide – not investment pledged to Kazakhstan. More concrete signals emerged on the sidelines. Meshal Jaber AlFaras, Janus Henderson Investors’ head of the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia, said the investment group is considering direct investments in Kazakhstan and plans to expand its presence in the country. Janus Henderson manages around $500 billion in assets. AlFaras did not disclose potential projects or investment amounts. A New Price for Risk One of the first day’s most prominent discussions took place at the Astana International Exchange (AIX), the AIFC’s stock exchange. Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist for the Asia-Pacific region at the BlackRock Investment Institute, spoke about how geopolitics is reshaping capital flows. “Today, we are in a structurally new regime – moving into a more complicated world where geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying, alliances are breaking down, and international relationships are changing. Of course, this affects investors. They need to completely rethink their approaches to investing,” Powell said. Higher inflation and interest rates, he continued, are changing attitudes toward risk. For smaller emerging markets, that means greater scrutiny of currency stability, regulation, and liquidity. A few halls away, that global discussion was already turning into pitches for specific mineral projects. From the Geological Map to the Investor Fifteen companies brought 23 mining projects to Astana Finance Days. Most are still at the exploration stage. In the industry, such companies are known as juniors. They search for mineral deposits and try to demonstrate that the resources they discover can eventually be mined profitably. For an ordinary bank, the risk is high: a promising area on a geological map does not yet guarantee a working mine. At the forum, companies briefly pitched their projects before moving into individual negotiations. More than ten Kazakh and international investors and strategic partners attended the pitch session. The Junior Mining Platform, launched this spring, is intended to turn this search for capital into a permanent mechanism. Private investors take on early geological risk; as reserves are confirmed and technical uncertainty declines, larger...

GDP Forecast

Kazakhstan Forecasts GDP Growth Above 5% in 2027–2029

Kazakhstan’s government has approved a socioeconomic development forecast and draft republican budget for 2027–2029, projecting average annual real GDP growth above 5% as manufacturing, agriculture, construction, transport, and other non-oil sectors expand. The forecast was prepared with reference to the global economic outlook and conditions in external markets. The accompanying draft budget, approved at the same government meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, will be submitted to the Kurultai for consideration. Under the government’s baseline scenario, real GDP is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2027, 5.5% in 2028, and 5.4% in 2029. Nominal GDP is expected to rise from KZT 199.3 trillion in 2027 to KZT 245 trillion in 2029, an increase of almost 23%. Non-oil sectors are expected to provide the main impetus for expansion. Manufacturing output is forecast to grow by an average of 5.9% a year, substantially faster than the 2% projected for mining. Metallurgy, mechanical engineering, construction materials, chemicals, and food production are expected to make the largest contributions. Oil exports and the broader mining sector will remain central to the economy and public finances, but the forecast assumes that manufacturing and other non-oil activities will account for a larger share of new output. TCA reported in July that Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in the first half of 2026 despite an 8.4% decline in oil production. The non-oil economy grew by more than 5%, with manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport accounting for more than 80% of overall growth. Manufacturing output increased by 9.8%. Agriculture is expected to expand by at least 5% annually. Construction is projected to remain among the fastest-growing sectors, increasing by 16% in 2027 and 17.3% in 2029. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said the expansion would be supported by transport and logistics, energy, and water projects, together with the modernization of housing, utilities, and social infrastructure. The services sector is also expected to maintain strong momentum. Trade is forecast to expand by an average of 5.7% annually, information and communications by 9.2%, and transport and warehousing by 10.4%. The transport forecast builds on rapid expansion along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor. Annual freight volumes through Kazakhstan have risen from 0.8 million to 4.5 million tons over seven years, while delivery times fell from approximately 28–32 days to 13–17 days. The route still carries substantially less cargo than established northern corridors, and participating countries continue to work on remaining bottlenecks. Infrastructure spending is a central element of the draft budget, but Bektenov said it must be accompanied by stronger financial discipline. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s instructions, accelerated construction of infrastructure and social facilities has been designated as a principal budget priority. Government bodies were told to meet the approved economic targets, while administrators of budget programs were directed to increase the return on every tenge spent. The headline budget deficit is forecast to fall from 2.3% of GDP in 2027 to just 0.4% in 2029. However, the non-oil deficit, which measures the...