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Afghanistan

Herat Tribal Peace Paves Way for Central Asian Connectivity Projects

In Herat province, a long-standing conflict between the Timuri and Achakzai tribal communities has officially ended. With the mediation of local authorities, religious scholars (ulemas), and community elders, peace was sealed by a public handshake. While the event may seem local in scope, it carries wider significance for Afghanistan and the broader Central Asian region. The Timuri-Achakzai feud is emblematic of a broader pattern across Afghanistan’s periphery: limited resources and the absence of effective distribution mechanisms. Disputes over land and water, exacerbated by droughts, shifting river courses, and inadequate irrigation infrastructure, had long fueled tensions over pastures and access to irrigation ditches. Compounding the problem, the disputed areas serve as a critical logistical junction, with both groups vying for control over transit routes. By the early 2020s, the conflict had calcified into a cycle of blood feuds. Traditional mediation efforts had collapsed, and the return of refugees from Iran, along with internal migration, further inflamed tensions as undocumented land claims surged. Weak central governance and legal ambiguity deepened the divide. A turning point came in 2023-2024, when Herat’s provincial leadership, working with ulemas and tribal elders, revived dialogue. The key to de-escalation was the realization of mutual dependence. Both groups faced declining agricultural yields, shrinking incomes, and reduced access to state and international aid. Their shared losses laid the groundwork for a symbolic public reconciliation, restoring a platform of trust. This reconciliation has practical implications for Central Asia. The proposed Turgundi, Herat-Kandahar-Spin Boldak railway, a critical trans-Afghan infrastructure project, passes through Timuri and Achakzai territories. Until recently, their rivalry posed a major risk from land disputes to construction security. Now, with both communities demonstrating their readiness to cooperate, political and transactional risks are receding. Herat’s peace agreement offers lessons for regional stakeholders invested in trans-Afghan corridors. First, infrastructure projects in Afghanistan require social engagement. Tribal structures must be included at every stage. Second, economic interdependence can be a catalyst for peace. When communities understand the tangible benefits of cooperation, they are more inclined to compromise. Third, local reconciliation creates what might be called a “social corridor.” The Achakzai and their related kin are present not only in Herat but also in Kandahar and Spin Boldak, spanning the planned railway’s route. Their buy-in transforms the line from a logistical corridor into a corridor of trust. This development is a strategic signal for the region. Localized Afghan conflicts can either block or enable integration efforts. Every grassroots peacebuilding success strengthens the region’s broader architecture of stability. Uzbekistan is eyeing the Trans-Afghan Highway. Turkmenistan is seeking to develop its connection through Turgundi. Kazakhstan is exploring how to link its rail networks with South Asia. All of these initiatives depend on the stability and cooperation of Afghan communities along the routes. The reconciliation between the Timuri and Achakzai should not be dismissed as a minor episode. It sets a precedent. Transitioning from high-level political declarations to the technical implementation of cross-border transit projects becomes more plausible when social dynamics are respected. If Central Asian...

Afghanistan

Afghanistan Offered Opportunity to Regain Role as Central Asian Transit Hub

Erkin Tukumov, Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan for Afghanistan, has called on Central Asian nations to intensify efforts to develop new transport corridors linking the region with Afghanistan and further to South Asia, including Pakistan and India. He made the remarks during the 2025 Astana Think Tank Forum at a session titled “Vision for Central Asia.” “Afghanistan has historically served as a transit hub, with the Great Silk Road and other trade corridors passing through its territory,” Tukumov stated. “Today, like the countries of Central Asia, Afghanistan is interested in developing stable and reliable transport routes that facilitate the movement of goods and provide access to South Asian markets. In the past, the region was primarily oriented toward the West, and later toward the East, particularly China. The southern direction remained largely overlooked for an obvious reason: Afghanistan endured nearly half a century of war.” Tukumov noted that the security situation is evolving, and although complete safety cannot yet be guaranteed, the level of risk has notably decreased. He emphasized that the Taliban now exercises effective control over the entirety of Afghan territory, which has contributed to an overall sense of stability. Trade and economic cooperation between Central Asian countries and Kabul, grounded in bilateral agreements, is also growing. “The next logical step is the establishment of new transport corridors connecting Central Asia with Afghanistan and South Asia. This objective can only be achieved through a coordinated regional effort,” he said. Javlon Vakhabov, Director of the International Institute for Central Asia (Uzbekistan), supported this view. He advocated for a unified regional approach to infrastructure development, including a strategic focus on the Afghan direction, and called for the creation of a sustainable coordination mechanism. “It is also necessary to convene an international forum titled ‘Central Asia - Afghanistan’ to foster expert dialogue, align policy efforts, share research, and develop joint strategies,” Vakhabov added. He further proposed involving Afghanistan in the regional water dialogue, particularly regarding the joint management of the Amu Darya, and establishing a multilateral framework to ensure equitable water use. Younes Zangyabadi, Executive Director of the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy (Canada-USA), referred to the “Group of Neighbors and Friends of Afghanistan” (6+2 format), a diplomatic initiative established in the late 20th century under UN auspices. The group included Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, China, Russia, and the US. Zangyabadi suggested that this format could be revived with Central Asian countries taking a leading role. “Central Asia is well-positioned to take the initiative in reviving this platform, which once brought together regional and global powers to discuss the future of Afghanistan in an inclusive manner,” he said. Valiullah Shahin, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expressed Kabul’s readiness to participate in water negotiations and emphasized Afghanistan’s interest in boosting trade, economic ties, and regional security. He also voiced support for collaborative efforts focused on development and stability in Central Asia. Previously The Times of Central Asia reported that Kazakhstan...

Afghanistan

Clashes on Afghan-Pakistani Border Hinder Central Asian Trade Hopes

A recent surge in border fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a reminder that Central Asian prospects for developing trade and energy networks through both those countries rest on fragile hopes for long-term security in the region. Some of the worst clashes since the Taliban took power again in Afghanistan in 2021 appeared to have tapered off by Sunday. While both sides have professed their openness to dialogue, there was little sign of a sustained move to address grievances that have simmered for many years. On Sunday, Pakistan accused Afghanistan of “unwarranted aggression” and said it had repulsed attacks by the Afghan Taliban and other armed groups at the border, inflicting heavy losses. On Saturday night, Afghanistan’s Ministry of National Defense said its military had conducted a “successful retaliatory operation” against Pakistani security forces following Pakistani ground incursions and airstrikes on Afghan soil. The conflicting claims were difficult to verify. But the Afghan ministry said its military operation had ended, signaling that it did not intend to prolong this round of fighting. Pakistan, which closed border crossings, said it wanted good relations with its neighbor. The clashes come as Central Asian countries seek to diversify trade routes, looking to Afghanistan as a path to ferry goods to Pakistani seaports and onward to the Indian Ocean. Such a route offers an alternative to more traditional corridors that were disrupted after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. But projects such as the Trans-Afghan railway, which is awaiting a feasibility study, depend on a stable political environment in a part of the world that is also prone to conflict. The TAPI natural gas pipeline project, which would connect Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, is also vulnerable to regional instability. Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited Pakistan’s chief rival, India, on October 9, just before the weekend escalation of border clashes.

Gas Exploration

Uzbek Companies Begin Gas Exploration at Afghanistan’s Toti-Maidan Field

Uzbek companies have received official licenses from Afghanistan to explore and produce hydrocarbons, Uzbek Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov announced in a documentary titled The Path of a New Uzbekistan - A Truth Recognized by the World, broadcast on Uzbekistan 24. According to Mirzamakhmudov, Afghan authorities have granted Uzbek firms the right to conduct geological exploration and develop hydrocarbon deposits on Afghan territory. Work began in mid-September at the Toti-Maidan gas field in Jowzjan province under a 25-year contract signed with the Uzbek company Eriell KAM. “This will be the first stage,” Mirzamakhmudov said, as quoted by Uzbek media. “Depending on the results, we plan to expand cooperation to new sites. The project is being implemented as an initiative that will benefit both the Uzbek and Afghan economies.” The Toti-Maidan field spans approximately 7,500 square kilometers and includes around 30 wells, according to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum. Uzbekistan is expected to invest about $100 million annually over the next decade, with plans to process the extracted gas domestically. Mirzamakhmudov emphasized that the initiative reflects Uzbekistan’s growing role in regional energy cooperation and aligns with its policy of fostering mutually beneficial ties with neighboring countries. He noted that the project aims to support local industry development and job creation in both nations. In August 2025, Uzbek and Afghan energy companies signed a series of agreements in Kabul to implement four major infrastructure projects. These include the construction of a 500-kilovolt Surkhan-Dasht-e Alwan transmission line, substation expansions in Arghandeh and Nangarhar, and upgrades to the Kabul-Nangarhar power corridor.

Afghanistan

Former Afghan Deputy Speaker “Abbas Dollar” Arrested in Tashkent

Abbas Ibrahimzada, a former deputy speaker of Afghanistan’s parliament, was arrested in Tashkent on September 24, according to sources cited by Amu. Despite reportedly posting bail of more than $350,000, he has remained in custody for over a week. His arrest follows multiple complaints filed by business rivals. Local sources indicate that Ibrahimzada has invested more than $50 million in Uzbekistan over the past four years, with ventures spanning commercial transport and flour production. His detention has raised concerns about potential disruptions to his extensive business interests. Ibrahimzada has not publicly commented on the case. A prominent representative from Balkh province during the 16th term of Afghanistan’s parliament, Ibrahimzada is widely known by the nickname “Abbas Dollar”, a nod to his reputation as one of Afghanistan’s wealthiest private investors. In addition to his political career, Ibrahimzada has long been active in business. According to Afghan-Bios, he heads the Ibrahimzada Group, which operates across multiple sectors, including energy, infrastructure, and education. His arrest in Uzbekistan adds a new layer of complexity to his cross-border business profile, drawing attention to the intersection of political and commercial interests in Central Asia. The case also highlights the legal uncertainties foreign investors may encounter in the region. Authorities have not released an official statement regarding the specific charges or the status of his business operations in Uzbekistan.

Qosh Tepa canal

Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Raises Water Security Fears

Water has long been one of Central Asia’s most contested resources, shaping agriculture, energy policy, and diplomacy across the region. Recently, Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal project has emerged as a central point in this debate. Promoted by the Taliban as a vital step toward achieving food security and economic growth, the canal also raises alarm bells among downstream neighbors who heavily depend on the Amu Darya River. Now, according to Islamic Emirate spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, the second phase of the project is expected to be completed within five months, raising further concerns among downstream countries about its potential impact on regional water security. Progress on the Ground In August, the Afghan authorities stated that 93% of the second phase had been completed. Videos show the canal lined with concrete and stone in some sections, alongside the construction of large and medium-sized bridges to link surrounding settlements. The project spans 128 kilometers from Dawlatabad district in Balkh province to Andkhoy district in Faryab province and involves over 60 contractors, making it one of Afghanistan’s largest infrastructure projects. Origins and International Support The canal’s roots trace back to earlier international efforts. While some sources attribute its conceptual origins to Soviet or British engineers in the 1960s, significant development began in 2018 under President Ashraf Ghani. The project was supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and Indian engineering firms. According to the Scientific-Information Center of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (SIC ICWC), a $3.6 million feasibility study was launched in Kabul in December 2018, funded by USAID and conducted by AACS Consulting and BETS Consulting Services Ltd. The study was coordinated with several Afghan ministries, but has not been published. Following the Taliban’s takeover, the Islamic Emirate held an official inauguration ceremony on March 30, 2022. The full canal is designed to stretch 285 kilometers, measuring 100 meters wide and 8.5 meters deep, and is expected to divert an estimated six to ten cubic kilometers of water annually from the Amu Darya. Afghan media have quoted water management expert Najibullah Sadid, who projected the canal could generate between $470 million and $550 million in annual revenue. Regional Concerns and Environmental Risks The project has raised alarm in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, countries that depend heavily on the Amu Darya for irrigation. Experts at SIC ICWC point out that no environmental impact assessment was conducted for downstream states, nor were they formally notified of the construction, as required by international water conventions. In December 2022, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for practical dialogue with Afghanistan and the international community to strengthen regional water security. Adroit Associates estimates that the canal could eventually divert up to 13 billion cubic meters annually, nearly one-quarter of the Amu Darya’s average flow. Environmental risks are also mounting. Analysts warn that Uzbekistan, which relies heavily on the river for agriculture, could face soil degradation and declining crop yields. Turkmenistan, where agriculture accounts for 12% of GDP, may also suffer severe disruptions. Some studies suggest Uzbekistan and...