Copper - The Times Of Central Asia

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Copper

Kazakhstan Reshapes Copper Export Flows Amid Rising Global Demand

As global demand for copper continues to increase, driven by energy transition and the digital economy, Kazakhstan, a major global producer, is not only increasing its output but also significantly reshaping its export geography. Analysts at Energyprom.kz have examined the current shifts in the sector and the evolving landscape of Kazakhstan’s copper exports. With its substantial reserves and a developed metallurgy sector, Kazakhstan is well positioned to benefit from this strategic opportunity. According to preliminary data from the National Statistics Bureau, the country produced 471,000 tons of refined copper in 2025, an increase of 7,100 tons, or 1.5%, from 2024’s 463,900 tons. This suggests a gradual stabilization of the industry following previous fluctuations. Production trends over recent years have been inconsistent. In 2018, Kazakhstan produced 442,600 tons of refined copper. Output rose 7.7% to 476,500 tons in 2019 and grew modestly in 2020 to 482,900 tons (+1.3%). However, production dropped sharply in 2021 to 403,300 tons, a decline of 16.5%, due to major repairs and upgrades at key processing facilities, including a furnace overhaul at the Balkhash Copper Smelter operated by Kazakhmys Smelting LLP, and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. By 2024, output had rebounded to 474,900 tons, up 17.8% from the 2021 low, signaling the industry’s return to pre-crisis levels. Despite global demand, Kazakhstan’s total exports of refined copper declined in 2025. However, the structure of those exports shifted notably. Deliveries to Turkey rose from 142,200 to 164,000 tons, an increase of 21,800 tons, or 15.3%. Turkey’s share of Kazakhstan’s copper exports rose from 32.5% to 40.9%, making it the country’s second-largest export destination. Combined, China and Turkey accounted for about 90% of Kazakhstan’s copper exports from January to November 2025, indicating a still high level of market concentration. However, exports to other countries grew 4.4 times from 9,200 tons to 40,100 tons, raising their share from 2.1% to 10%. This points to early signs of diversification. These shifts in Kazakhstan’s export strategy coincide with major developments in global demand. According to a forecast by S&P Global, global copper consumption is projected to grow from 27.3 million tons in 2024 to 42.3 million tons by 2040, an increase of 15 million tons, or approximately 55%. The primary drivers include electric vehicles, renewable energy development, power grid upgrades, artificial intelligence, data centers, and rising defense sector needs. By 2040, copper use in the energy transition sector is expected to more than double from 7.6 million tons in 2024 to 15.6 million tons. Copper demand for AI and data centers is forecast to rise from 1 million to 2.5 million tons. Even traditional sectors like construction and mechanical engineering will grow, projected to increase from 17.8 million to 23.3 million tons. China will remain the world’s largest consumer of refined copper. According to Fitch Solutions, Chinese demand is expected to rise from 15.9 million tons in 2023 to 18.9 million tons by 2028, an increase of 19%, or more than 3 million tons. This would allow China to maintain a...

Digital Technologies

Kazakhmys Partners with Freedom Cloud to Modernize IT Infrastructure

Kazakhmys, the world’s largest copper producer, has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Kazakh IT company Freedom Cloud to implement advanced digital technologies in its operations. The agreement outlines plans to modernize Kazakhmys’ IT infrastructure, introduce cloud-based solutions, and integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into production processes. Company representatives say that transitioning to a cloud architecture will allow computing and network resources to be consolidated into a unified digital system, enhancing data protection and ensuring uninterrupted operation of critical systems. Nurakhmet Nuriev, Chairman of the Board of Kazakhmys Corporation LLP, emphasized that the company is ready to outsource non-core IT functions to professional service providers without compromising system reliability. A pilot project will be launched from January to June 2026 to test the new cloud infrastructure and digital services. Freedom Cloud will provide Tier III infrastructure with backup systems, cybersecurity safeguards, and 24/7 monitoring. The infrastructure will support AI-driven production management tools and DevOps practices to accelerate the rollout of digital solutions. “We are creating an infrastructure that will enable Kazakhmys not only to increase operational efficiency, but also to set an example for the entire mining and metallurgical industry in the use of AI and cloud platforms,” said Freedom Cloud CEO Temirlan Zinalabdin.

Metallurgy

Kazakhstan’s Surge in Metallurgical Output Raises Alarm in Russia

Kazakhstan is poised to double its copper ore production to 300 million tons by 2030, with the Aidarly, Koksay, and Benkala deposits leading the expansion. This ambitious plan was announced by Deputy Minister of Industry and Construction Olzhas Saparbekov during a recent government meeting. A Strategic Shift Toward Processing Alongside copper, Kazakhstan plans to expand iron ore production by 40%, aiming for 52 million tons. This increase will be driven by enterprise modernization and new projects producing hot-briquetted iron. In 2024, metallurgical ore production grew by 7.8%, while total metal output rose by 6.9%. Authorities are shifting focus from raw extraction to deep processing and the development of medium- and high-tech industries. By 2025, copper processing is expected to double, aluminum processing will increase by 50%, lead processing will more than double, and zinc output will rise by 11%. According to Saparbekov, these efforts will allow Kazakhstan to “utilize domestic production capacities and expand the output of finished products,” including wire rod, cable and wire products, batteries, window profiles, fittings, and bimetallic radiators. New projects also aim to produce brass components and industrial batteries. Economic Impact and Investment Plans The mining and metallurgical sector currently contributes 8% to Kazakhstan’s GDP, generating over $26.4 billion annually. The industry employs approximately 224,000 people. In 2024 alone, more than $3.2 billion was invested in metallurgy, while labor productivity increased by 9.4%, reaching $102,000 per worker. In 2025, Kazakhstan plans to implement 190 industrial projects worth a combined $3 billion. Of these, 28 projects in the mining and metallurgical sector, valued at $837 million, are expected to create 6,500 new jobs. Priority initiatives include the production of seamless pipes and aluminum radiators in Karaganda, aluminum profiles in the Turkestan Region, ferroalloys in Pavlodar, and cathode copper in the Zhambyl Region. Rising Tensions with Russia However, Kazakhstan’s rapid metallurgical growth is stirring concern in neighboring Russia. In the first half of 2025, domestic steel demand in Russia fell by 14-15%, with the machine-building and energy sectors seeing a sharper decline of 25%. Severstal CEO Alexander Shevelev told Kommersant that increasing supplies from Kazakhstan, alongside imports from China, are straining Russia’s market and may force plant closures. He identified particularly intense competition in Siberia and the Russian Far East. Severstal has warned that, without protective measures under the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), pressure from Kazakh imports could spread to other Russian regions. In response, Russia is considering launching an anti-dumping investigation into Kazakh steel imports. Such a move could significantly impact Kazakh exporters, who are looking to increase shipments amid weak domestic demand in neighboring markets. According to the World Steel Association, Russia’s steel production declined by 5.2% between January and May 2025. The drop is attributed to low global prices, high interest rates, rising production costs, and sluggish industrial activity.

Critical Minerals

Kazakhstan Eyes Entry into Global Gallium Market

The Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) is set to invest in gallium production and intensify exploration for copper and other critical minerals, aiming to position Kazakhstan as a key player amid rising global demand for strategic resources. Kazakhstan to Become World’s Second-Largest Gallium Producer ERG has announced a $20 million investment to launch gallium production in Kazakhstan, beginning in 2026. The metal, which will be extracted from bauxite ore, primarily used in alumina production, is targeted for supply to OECD countries. “ERG plans to become a significant player in the global gallium market, starting production in 2026 with the prospect of expanding volumes to 15 metric tons per year,” said the group's CEO, Shukhrat Ibragimov. Gallium is a critical mineral in high-tech industries, including semiconductors, radar systems, and aerospace navigation. It is listed as a strategic material by both the United States and the European Union. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, global gallium production reached 760 tons in 2023, with China dominating the supply. Following Beijing’s imposition of export restrictions on gallium, germanium, and antimony in December 2023, Western nations have been seeking alternative sources. Kazakhstan may now fill part of that void. Expanding Copper Prospects In tandem with its gallium ambitions, ERG is ramping up copper exploration efforts. At the AMM-2025 mining and metallurgical forum in Astana, ERG Exploration, a subsidiary of ERG, announced a significant copper discovery in the Karaganda region. “We have completed drilling 51 wells, copper ore has been discovered in 42 of them, with copper content in some samples reaching 6.7%,” said Zaura Kunanbayeva, ERG Exploration’s senior geologist. The Karabas site is estimated to contain over 250,000 tons of copper, with the potential to yield up to 1 million tons of ore. Additional finds include molybdenum, lead, zinc, and silver. A final assessment is expected in the second half of 2025. Tin Reserves Reassessed ERG has also reported revised figures for the Syrymbek deposit in North Kazakhstan, believed to be the world’s largest undeveloped tin reserve. Following a revaluation, tin reserves increased to 286,000 tons, while copper reserves were updated to 55,000 tons. “The price of tin has doubled in five years and recently reached $33,000 per ton. The project’s proximity to China, the world’s largest tin consumer, makes it strategically valuable,” said Aida Alzhanova, Deputy Head of Strategy at Solidcore Eurasia. Government Support and Foreign Investment At the same forum, Deputy Minister of Industry and Construction, Iran Sharkan, highlighted that more than $820 million has been invested in geological exploration since 2018. The government aims to expand the country’s exploration area from 1.9 to 2.2 million square kilometers by 2026. “As a result, we have seen a 33% increase in domestic copper processing and a twofold increase in gold ore production over the past 10 years. Kazakhstan has entered the top 20 countries globally in terms of gold reserves,” Sharkan noted. Kazakhstan’s mining sector is also attracting international attention. In May, Australian company C29 Metals Limited signed a joint exploration agreement with Astana-based Bask...

Copper

Gold and Copper Exploration in Kazakhstan Gets Boost from Australian Joint Venture

Australian mining firm C29 Metals Limited has entered into a joint venture agreement with Bask International Group Ltd, a company registered in Astana. The newly established joint venture (JV) aims to explore promising copper and gold deposits across Kazakhstan. C29 Metals is not a newcomer to Kazakhstan’s mineral sector. In the spring of 2024, the company obtained a geological exploration license for its Ulytau project, which includes several solid mineral deposits, notably uranium. It has since submitted two additional applications for uranium exploration. However, according to a recent company announcement, the new JV will focus exclusively on copper and gold and will not be involved in C29 Metals’ uranium interests in the country. The joint venture, registered at the Astana International Financial Center (AIFC), will concentrate on identifying and acquiring exploration projects with significant geological potential. According to the agreement, C29 Metals will hold a 75% stake in the venture, with Bask International Group retaining 25%. C29 will fully finance the geological exploration, thereby relieving its Kazakh partner of any financial burden. The board of directors will comprise two representatives from the Australian company and one from the Kazakh side. “The conclusion of this joint venture agreement marks another important milestone in our strategic growth plans,” said Shannon Green, Managing Director of C29 Metals. “The partnership with Bask International Group in Kazakhstan will give us access to opportunities beyond our typical reach. Bask’s network and capabilities will enable us to move at an unprecedented pace as we scale operations.” Yerlan Issekeshev, head of Bask International Group Ltd, emphasized Kazakhstan’s untapped mining potential: “Kazakhstan is on the cusp of a new era in resource development. While exploration slowed during the post-Soviet period, the country’s mineral wealth remains vast and underexplored.” As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is set to auction off 50 gold and rare metal deposits in June 2025, offering electronic tenders for exploration and development rights.

Mining

UK Supports €12.6M Deal to Boost Exports to Uzbekistan’s Copper Producer

UK Export Finance (UKEF) has guaranteed a €12.6 million ($13.25 million) loan to the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex (AMMC) in Uzbekistan. The loan will refinance the purchase of fully automated vehicles from the Scottish multinational company Weir and marks UKEF’s first agreement in Uzbekistan. The loan, provided by the International Bank, aims to support Weir’s exports to AMMC, one of Central Asia’s largest copper production facilities. “UK businesses are increasingly keen to bring their goods and services to this dynamic market - and UKEF is here to help buyers in Uzbekistan seize this opportunity,” said Tim Reid, CEO of UKEF. Strategic Importance of Copper The UK Department of Business and Trade reports that nearly 90% of UK imports from Uzbekistan consist of non-ferrous metals, metal ores, and slag. Copper, a vital material for construction and green technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles, is in increasing demand. Global copper requirements are projected to grow by an additional one million tons annually until 2035. The UKEF-backed deal reflects the UK’s commitment to enhancing machinery exports and supporting the global supply chain. In 2023, total trade between the UK and Uzbekistan reached £381 million, with specialized machinery ranking as the fourth most-traded category. Sustaining Production at Almalyk UKEF’s financial backing is crucial for sustaining production at AMMC by ensuring access to capital from a trusted supplier. The partnership highlights UKEF’s broader role in facilitating growth opportunities for UK businesses in Central Asia’s dynamic market.