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Oil Production

Oil Eclipse: Power Cuts Expose Fragility of Western Kazakhstan’s CPC-Linked Energy System

Production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is set to resume, according to the Ministry of Energy, which has been monitoring the situation since January 18. The restart does not, however, represent a full return to pre-shutdown production levels. While the disruption had no immediate impact on global oil prices, which continued to decline at the time of the outage, it triggered widespread electricity restrictions across western Kazakhstan. On January 21, Brent crude futures fell by 79 cents (1.22%) to $64.13 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped by 64 cents (1.06%) to $59.72 per barrel, Reuters reported. By then, production at Tengiz had already been suspended for three days, with sources indicating that the downtime would continue for another seven to ten days. From January 20, local authorities in Atyrau and Mangistau regions reported systemic electricity supply restrictions, including altered street-lighting schedules in Atyrau to conserve power, amid reduced gas deliveries to regional generators. The Ministry of Energy did not publicly respond to this until January 22, when, in a statement, it confirmed that gas turbine units at Tengiz were shut down on January 18. At the direction of Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov, his deputy was dispatched to oversee the situation on the ground. A special commission was established to investigate the incident, including representatives from the State Energy Supervision and Control Committee, the Atyrau Region Akimat’s Energy Department, KEGOC JSC, and Tengizchevroil LLP. No official explanation for the shutdown has yet been provided. However, some Kazakh energy experts have publicly speculated about a possible link to recent Ukrainian drone attacks on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which plays a vital role in exporting Kazakh oil. Oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov drew a connection between the attacks and cascading effects on domestic energy supply: “They hit the CPC; exports declined, followed by oil production. Gas production declined along with oil. Gas is essential for electricity generation in western Kazakhstan,” he said. Baidildinov added that imported gas and electricity from Russia helped prevent more severe outages, though the energy crunch underscores longstanding vulnerabilities in Kazakhstan’s infrastructure. Baidildinov also referred to recent criticism from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who at the 5th session of the National Kurultai voiced dissatisfaction with the energy sector, signaling potential personnel changes. On January 26, the Ministry of Energy announced that production at Tengiz would restart “in the near future,” and, at 4 a.m., the second-generation plant resumed operations, initiating raw material flows from the Royal field. “The current flow to the ZVP is 2,500 tons per day. Specialists are systematically increasing the supply of multiphase flow (oil and gas) to reach design capacity. At Tengiz, all technical and human resources have been mobilized to inspect energy facilities and power distribution systems,” the ministry stated. Officials emphasized that restoration efforts are under constant oversight. “TCO remains committed to ensuring reliable production and will increase volumes in stages, as infrastructure readiness and safety have been confirmed.” While the ministry has yet to publicly acknowledge...

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Second Malta-Flagged Vessel Hit in Black Sea as Shipping Risks Rise

The Maltese government has officially condemned recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea after a second ship flying the Maltese flag was damaged in a missile strike. This marks the second such incident within a week involving Maltese-registered ships. A spokesperson for Malta’s Ministry of Transport confirmed that the latest vessel, a Malta-flagged commercial ship, sustained minor shrapnel damage during a missile strike targeting port infrastructure in the Black Sea. The ship remains seaworthy, although one crew member was injured. The earlier incident involved the Matilda, an oil tanker also registered in Malta and chartered by the Kazakh shipping company Kazmortransflot, a subsidiary of state-owned KazMunayGas. On January 13, according to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Matilda was struck by two Ukrainian drones. In 2025, Kazmortransflot increased its transport volumes by more than 15% compared to 2024, reaching 51,400 DFE. The growth was attributed to rising demand for shipping along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Both incidents occurred near the CPC marine terminal outside Novorossiysk. In a statement, Malta’s Ministry of Transport emphasized that attacks on commercial shipping present a serious threat to civilian seafarers, global shipping safety, and the uninterrupted flow of legitimate international trade. The ministry also noted that commercial vessels operating in conflict zones are increasingly exposed to elevated operational and insurance risks, even when transporting cargo fully compliant with international sanctions. The attacks near the CPC marine terminal have already had a measurable economic impact on shipping and energy exports. As of December 2025, insurance rates for merchant ships operating in the Black Sea had risen to 1% of a vessel’s value, up from 0.75% and 0.25% during more stable periods. Ships operating in areas of active military conflict are typically insured per voyage rather than annually, significantly raising operating expenses. Shipping and insurance analysts say the rise in insurance premiums is reducing profit margins on oil and petroleum product exports in the region. Although Kazakhstan’s export volumes have not yet been directly affected, traders and shippers are increasingly factoring geopolitical and logistical risks into their strategies. Repeated disruptions near one of Eurasia’s critical energy hubs are heightening concerns about the reliability of supply routes, especially given limited alternatives. Kazakhstan has already begun restructuring its oil export network due to disruptions at the CPC, its primary crude oil export channel. Authorities have turned to alternative infrastructure to maintain output and avoid production slowdowns.

Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Restructures Oil Exports Amid Disruptions at CPC

Kazakhstan is rapidly restructuring its oil export routes in response to disruptions affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a critical channel for the country’s crude shipments. To maintain export volumes and avoid production slowdowns, authorities have turned to alternative infrastructure. According to a statement from KazMunayGas, the national oil company, approximately 300,000 tons of oil were rerouted in December 2025 after restrictions limited the CPC’s intake capacity. In coordination with KazTransOil JSC (KTO), the country redirected oil flows to other export corridors. These rerouted volumes were exported to Germany, China, and via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, with shipments also handled through the ports of Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga. As CPC restrictions remained in place into January 2026, the redirection strategy continued. Amid these challenges, Kazakhstan’s use of alternative routes gained momentum. KazMunayGas reported that oil deliveries to Germany’s Schwedt refinery totaled 2.1 million tons by the end of 2025, with projections indicating a rise to 2.5 million tons in 2026. Exports through the port of Aktau to the BTC pipeline reached 1.3 million tons in 2025 and are expected to grow to 1.6 million tons this year. Shipments to China remained stable, with 1.1 million tons delivered by the end of 2025. These developments reflect a gradual shift aimed at reducing Kazakhstan’s dependency on the CPC which has faced repeated operational setbacks. The CPC disruptions stem from a series of security incidents. In February and March 2025, the Kropotkinskaya station was targeted in drone attacks. On 29 November, a strike on the consortium’s remote mooring device caused damage to its marine terminal. Following the November incident, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy stated that the CPC pipeline is an international energy project and warned that “any forceful impact on its facilities poses direct risks to global energy security.” After another attack on 13 January 2026, when drones targeted three oil tankers near the CPC terminal in the Black Sea, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a sharper response. In emergency consultations with European partners, the U.S., and other stakeholders, Kazakhstan called for reinforced protection of hydrocarbon transportation routes and maritime corridors, emphasizing the need for adherence to international law.

Caspian Sea Tanker Attacks

Kazakhstan Calls on Partners to Ensure Safe Transportation of Caspian Oil

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed deep concern over recent drone attacks on oil tankers en route to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) marine terminal in the Black Sea. During emergency consultations with ambassadors from several European countries, as well as discussions with the U.S. and other foreign partners, Kazakh diplomats urged the adoption of effective measures to safeguard hydrocarbon transport routes, including maritime corridors, in full compliance with international law. The Foreign Ministry emphasized that Kazakhstan is not a party to any armed conflicts and plays a crucial role in supporting global and European energy security by ensuring uninterrupted oil supplies in accordance with its international obligations. It was noted that all the targeted tankers were operating legally, with the required permits and standard identification systems. According to the ministry, the rising number of such incidents signals a growing threat to the integrity of international energy infrastructure. Kazakhstan called for deeper cooperation with partner countries to develop joint mechanisms aimed at preventing future attacks. Earlier, the Ministry of Energy stated that export volumes had not been directly affected: some of the vessels were empty, and others remained seaworthy. However, the fact that these attacks occurred near one of Kazakhstan’s key export hubs has increased concerns among market participants about the reliability of supply chains. Reuters, citing unnamed sources, reported that up to three tankers may have been hit. Among the affected vessels were ships operated by the U.S. energy giant Chevron and others flying Greek flags, raising the stakes in what is becoming a significant geopolitical issue. Kazakh MP Aidos Sarym remarked that ensuring the security of the CPC, where Russia is a major shareholder, should be a shared responsibility. "I believe Chevron is one of the largest shareholders. We also know Ukraine relies heavily on U.S. support. Chevron is not a minor player globally. I think the U.S. and our other partners must jointly urge Ukraine to reconsider its targeting priorities," Sarym said. Amid these developments, Bloomberg reported that Kazakhstan’s oil exports via the CPC could fall by as much as 45% in January due to ongoing disruptions at the terminal.

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Attacks on Tankers in the Black Sea Raise Risks for Oil Markets and Kazakhstan’s Exports

Recent drone attacks on the Delta Harmony and Matilda oil tankers in the Black Sea have added to the growing geopolitical risks facing the global oil market. Both tankers were awaiting loading to transport Kazakh crude via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which operates through the Novorossiysk port in southern Russia. The attacks have placed renewed attention on the exposure of Western energy majors operating in Kazakhstan, particularly Chevron, a key stakeholder in CPC-linked exports. “We are aware of reports of incidents involving vessels inbound to CPC loading facilities, including one Chevron-chartered tanker,” Chevron spokesperson Sally Jones told The Times of Central Asia. “All crew are safe, and the vessel has now reached a safe location. We are coordinating with the ship operator and relevant authorities. The safety of personnel and the protection of the environment remain our top priorities. There has been no impact on TCO operations or exports. Chevron continues to closely monitor the situation, and we refer all further inquiries to CPC.” According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, export volumes were unaffected. The fact that attacks occurred near a key export hub has, however, deepened concerns among market participants over the security of regional oil infrastructure. The country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs added in a statement: "We emphasize that the Republic of Kazakhstan is not a party to any armed conflict, makes a significant contribution to strengthening global and European energy security, and ensures uninterrupted energy supplies in full compliance with established international standards." Reuters, citing unnamed sources, reported that up to three vessels may have been struck, suggesting a broader and potentially escalating threat to maritime safety in the area. The latest incidents follow a series of security-related disruptions in and around the Black Sea and Caspian regions that The Times of Central Asia has previously reported on, including attacks on energy and transport infrastructure linked to regional export routes. While earlier incidents did not result in prolonged outages, they have steadily heightened concerns among industry participants over the vulnerability of critical energy corridors. The CPC is a vital artery for Kazakhstan’s oil industry. More than 80% of the country’s crude exports, including output from major fields like Tengiz and Karachaganak, flow through this route. Disruptions in the Novorossiysk area could quickly affect shipping timetables, freight and insurance rates, and, ultimately, global oil prices. Some analysts warn that these repeated incidents near the CPC expose Kazakhstan’s strategic vulnerabilities, forcing markets to price in a “geopolitical premium.” More significantly, interruptions in oil product flows could have domestic political consequences, potentially prompting a reconfiguration of Kazakhstan’s political timetable. “The situation involving the CPC, the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant, and reported attempted attacks on the Central Asia-Center gas pipeline, used to transport Russian gas through Kazakhstan, could significantly destabilize the country’s economy,” wrote oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov on his personal Telegram channel. He added that, in his view, it could become politically rational either to accelerate elections in anticipation of further instability or to delay them until...

Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan Boosts Oil Output Despite Export Infrastructure Challenges

Kazakhstan increased its production of oil and gas condensate by 14% in January-November 2025 compared to the same period last year, and exceeded its annual export plan ahead of schedule, despite ongoing disruptions in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The figures were announced by Deputy Minister of Energy Sungat Yessimkhanov. By the end of 2024, Kazakhstan had produced 87.7 million tons of oil and gas condensate, 97.1% of its target of 90.5 million tons. Total oil exports for the year reached 63.2 million tons. In the first 11 months of 2025, production rose to 91.9 million tons, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase. The full-year target for 2025 is 96.2 million tons. Over the same period, exports amounted to 73.4 million tons, already surpassing the annual target of 70.5 million tons and representing a 16.1% increase from the previous year. This growth came despite serious challenges to Kazakhstan’s main export route. The CPC, which carries the bulk of Kazakh crude to international markets, experienced disruptions following a drone attack on its infrastructure. The incident raised fresh concerns about the vulnerability of critical export corridors. In the gas sector, Kazakhstan produced 62.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas in January-November 2025, a 16.7% increase from the same period in 2024. The annual gas production target for 2025 has already been met. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production rose to 2.8 million tons, up 1.8%. Gas transit volumes through Kazakhstan reached 64.5 billion cubic meters, up 0.9%. During the same period, domestic production of petroleum products reached 14 million tons. The full-year target is 14.5 million tons, on track to match the 2024 total, when 17.9 million tons of crude were processed domestically. Production of oil and gas chemical products increased by 12.2%, reaching 567,600 tons. The target for 2025 is set at 590,000 tons. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh authorities are actively seeking foreign investment for the construction of a fourth major oil refinery with a projected capacity of up to 10 million tons per year. Overall, Astana plans to attract between $15 billion and $19 billion in investment for the development of the oil refining sector by 2040.