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Oil Supply

Kazakhstan on Europe’s Oil Podium, but for How Long?

Kazakhstan has strengthened its position as one of the key suppliers of oil to the European Union, capitalizing on the redistribution of energy flows following the reduction of Russian crude imports. However, declining production and vulnerabilities in export infrastructure cast doubt on the country’s ability to maintain this position in the medium term. According to official EU data, the EU remains one of the world’s largest oil importers, meeting about 97% of its demand through external supplies. In 2025, EU countries imported approximately 435 million tonnes of crude oil worth more than €212 billion. The reduction in Russia’s share from 25.8% in 2021 to 2.2% in 2025 led to a significant redistribution of flows in favour of alternative suppliers, including the United States (14.6%), Norway (12.8%), and Kazakhstan (12.8%) by crude-oil import volume. Kazakhstan has been among the main beneficiaries of these changes. According to an Econovis Economic Research Laboratory report, the share of Kazakh supplies in European imports has increased for several consecutive years. This growth has been driven by strong demand from European refineries for light, low-sulfur CPC Blend crude. Alongside Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan has also strengthened its position, benefiting from Europe’s diversification efforts. A notable example is the Czech Republic, where, following the cessation of deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, Azerbaijan accounted for more than 42% of oil imports in 2025, according to Czech import data. Kazakhstan ranked third in the Czech market with a share of around 18%, indicating the emergence of a new energy balance in the Caspian region. Despite this favorable external environment, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector has faced a significant downturn. According to government data, in the first quarter of 2026, oil and gas condensate production amounted to 19.7 million tonnes, 20% less than in the same period of 2025. Oil exports declined by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes, while the annual export forecast stands at about 76 million tonnes. By mid-April, however, CPC exports had risen from February levels as Tengiz resumed production, suggesting that some of the early-year disruption had eased. The decline is linked to disruptions in the operations of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and temporary shutdowns at major fields, including Tengiz. The CPC remains the key export route for Kazakh oil to Europe, transporting most of the crude through the terminal in Novorossiysk. Economic analyst Olzhas Baidildinov said the consequences of attacks on the consortium’s infrastructure could have long-term implications. “Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan fell by 20% in the first quarter compared to January-March 2025, 19.7 million tonnes versus 24.6 million tonnes. Oil exports decreased by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes. The export forecast for this year is 76 million tonnes,” he wrote on his Telegram channel. According to his estimates, the country will once again fail to surpass the psychologically significant threshold of 100 million tonnes of annual production. “As a result of the attacks on the CPC, at least 6 million tonnes of oil worth no less than $3.4 billion were...

Oil Exports

Drone Strikes on Russian Baltic Ports Raise Risks for Kazakhstan’s Oil Exports

Drone attacks on Russian Baltic ports have heightened concerns about potential risks to Kazakhstan’s oil export routes. Ukrainian drone strikes targeted the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast earlier this week, disrupting operations at both major oil export hubs. Primorsk has an estimated capacity of around one million barrels of crude oil and approximately 300,000 barrels of diesel fuel per day. Large fuel storage facilities are also located at both ports. Further strikes were reported on March 25, when drones again targeted both ports. Media reports indicated that shipments of oil and petroleum products were suspended, and that fires broke out at Ust-Luga. As of March 26, loadings at both ports were reportedly still suspended following the latest strikes, with no confirmed return to normal operations. Kazakhstan has increasingly used Baltic routes for part of its oil exports following periodic disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system. Commenting on the situation, Kazakh oil and gas journalist Oleg Chervinsky said that the port of Ust-Luga has been used to export Kazakh crude marketed under the KEBCO brand, with volumes rising after earlier challenges affecting CPC shipments. Kazakhstan’s national pipeline operator, KazTransOil, transports crude through Russian pipeline infrastructure under agreements with Russia’s Transneft. From there, oil can be delivered to Germany, shipped via Baltic ports such as Ust-Luga, or exported through Black Sea terminals, including Novorossiysk, which has also been targeted by drone attacks in the past year. According to open-source intelligence analysts cited in international media, energy infrastructure in the Ust-Luga industrial zone, including facilities linked to NOVATEK’s gas processing complex, was affected by the latest strike. The Ust-Luga site is located roughly 850 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. A similar attack on infrastructure in the Ust-Luga area was reported in August 2025. At that time, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy stated that Kazakh oil exports had not been affected. As of March 26, the ministry had not publicly commented on the latest incidents. Officials have previously emphasized the importance of diversifying export routes amid geopolitical risks and infrastructure disruptions.

Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Seeks to Expand Oil Exports Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Kazakhstan is seeking to reinforce its status as a stable oil supplier while accelerating the diversification of export routes and revising the terms of cooperation with foreign investors amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. These priorities were outlined by Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov during a speech at the CERAWeek conference in Houston and in a series of meetings with major international oil and gas companies. Discussions focused on structural changes in the global oil industry, ranging from geopolitical instability to the reconfiguration of logistics chains. According to the minister, Kazakhstan remains resilient while adapting to evolving conditions. Energy security continues to be a central concern for the sector, particularly the reliable operation of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which the majority of Kazakhstan’s oil exports are transported. This route remains the most cost-effective and strategically important option. Authorities have openly acknowledged its critical role in the national economy, stressing the need to ensure uninterrupted transit. At the same time, efforts to develop alternative routes, including the Trans-Caspian corridor and increased shipments to China, are part of a strategy to reduce logistical and political risks. On the sidelines of the forum, government officials held talks with leading energy companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell, all key investors in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry. Discussions with Chevron focused on expanding production at the Tengiz and Karachaganak fields, as well as developing export infrastructure. ExxonMobil reaffirmed its interest in increasing output at Tengiz and Kashagan, where localization levels are high, with Kazakhstani specialists accounting for more than 90% of the workforce. Talks with Shell focused on boosting production and expanding refining capacity, including refinery modernization and the production of winter-grade diesel fuel. In addition to operational issues, the discussions addressed the question of redistributing roles within joint projects. Kazakhstan is considering independently implementing certain gas-processing initiatives after partners failed to reach a final investment decision on the Karachaganak project. The development of the petrochemical industry and the expansion of refining capacity have been identified as separate priorities. Kazakhstan plans to double its oil-refining capacity to meet domestic demand and increase exports of petroleum products. To attract investment, the government has introduced a revised model contract offering tax incentives and encouraging geological exploration. Experts say Central Asia’s role in the global energy sector is increasing, with Kazakhstan playing a key part in regional stability. The minister said the country’s strategic objective is to maintain the sector’s investment appeal while ensuring maximum economic returns for the national economy. “Kazakhstan remains a predictable and reliable supplier of energy resources and is ready to translate the trust of its partners into the development of technological projects within the country,” Akkenzhenov said. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Italian energy company Eni is accelerating the expansion of its projects in Kazakhstan. The company plans to complete construction of a hybrid power plant in Zhanaozen, one of the country’s main oil and gas hubs, by the end of the year.

Caspian Region

War Reaches the Caspian: Central Asia Faces Growing Regional Risk

The United States and Israel's war with Iran began on February 28, 2026. The intensity of the conflict has fluctuated, but daily reports of missile strikes and explosions are increasingly resonating across Central Asia. Meanwhile, Russia’s latest war against Ukraine has continued for 1,466 days since it began on February 24, 2022. Late last year, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck a Russian oil platform at the Filanovsky field in the Caspian Sea, more than 700 kilometers from Ukraine’s nearest border. Ukraine also said the operation targeted the patrol ship Okhotnik, although the extent of the damage was not independently verified. The war in Ukraine has also created serious challenges for Kazakhstan’s oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Repeated attacks and disruptions have threatened export flows, increased logistical risks, and added pressure on Kazakhstan’s budget revenues. The war against Iran has now brought military action to the Caspian coast of Iran, raising concern for energy producers and transit routes across the wider region. On March 5, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that drones launched from Iranian territory struck the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. According to the ministry, one drone hit the terminal building at Nakhchivan International Airport, while another crashed near a school in the village of Shekerabad. Azerbaijan demanded a thorough investigation. Iran later stated that it had promised to investigate the incident. Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office subsequently opened a criminal case. As of now, tensions remain high, with both sides continuing to exchange accusations, and Azerbaijan maintaining heightened alert measures. More recently, the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed carrying out airstrikes in northern Iran, targeting naval vessels in the port city of Bandar-Anzali on the Caspian coast. The straight-line distance from Bandar-Anzali to Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, is just over 300 kilometers, and approximately 420 kilometers to Turkmenbashi, a major international seaport and the center of Turkmenistan’s oil-refining industry. The resort zone of Avaza is also located there. By comparison, the distance from Israel to Bandar-Anzali exceeds 1,300 kilometers. These developments are contributing to rising economic uncertainty across Central Asia. The consequences extend beyond transportation and logistics disruptions, with broader implications for regional economies. The U.S. and Israel have not always appeared aligned on what would constitute victory, meaning the measure of success remains difficult to gauge. While the United States and Israel have repeatedly stated that significant damage has been inflicted on Iran’s military infrastructure (including destroying a substantial part of the Iranian navy), there is no publicly available, independently verified evidence confirming the extent of the damage to Iran’s leadership structure following the death of Ali Khamenei, Ali Larijani and other senior Iranian figures, or on Iran’s ability to mount an effective defence. Analysts have described Iran’s military resilience as decentralized, sometimes using the term "mosaic defense," meaning units can continue operating under standing orders even when senior leadership is hit. It is understood that, as part of this strategy, the Iranian military has spent decades refining its ability to operate as independent nodes, each equipped to conduct strikes under...

Oil Production

Oil Eclipse: Power Cuts Expose Fragility of Western Kazakhstan’s CPC-Linked Energy System

Production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is set to resume, according to the Ministry of Energy, which has been monitoring the situation since January 18. The restart does not, however, represent a full return to pre-shutdown production levels. While the disruption had no immediate impact on global oil prices, which continued to decline at the time of the outage, it triggered widespread electricity restrictions across western Kazakhstan. On January 21, Brent crude futures fell by 79 cents (1.22%) to $64.13 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped by 64 cents (1.06%) to $59.72 per barrel, Reuters reported. By then, production at Tengiz had already been suspended for three days, with sources indicating that the downtime would continue for another seven to ten days. From January 20, local authorities in Atyrau and Mangistau regions reported systemic electricity supply restrictions, including altered street-lighting schedules in Atyrau to conserve power, amid reduced gas deliveries to regional generators. The Ministry of Energy did not publicly respond to this until January 22, when, in a statement, it confirmed that gas turbine units at Tengiz were shut down on January 18. At the direction of Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov, his deputy was dispatched to oversee the situation on the ground. A special commission was established to investigate the incident, including representatives from the State Energy Supervision and Control Committee, the Atyrau Region Akimat’s Energy Department, KEGOC JSC, and Tengizchevroil LLP. No official explanation for the shutdown has yet been provided. However, some Kazakh energy experts have publicly speculated about a possible link to recent Ukrainian drone attacks on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which plays a vital role in exporting Kazakh oil. Oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov drew a connection between the attacks and cascading effects on domestic energy supply: “They hit the CPC; exports declined, followed by oil production. Gas production declined along with oil. Gas is essential for electricity generation in western Kazakhstan,” he said. Baidildinov added that imported gas and electricity from Russia helped prevent more severe outages, though the energy crunch underscores longstanding vulnerabilities in Kazakhstan’s infrastructure. Baidildinov also referred to recent criticism from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who at the 5th session of the National Kurultai voiced dissatisfaction with the energy sector, signaling potential personnel changes. On January 26, the Ministry of Energy announced that production at Tengiz would restart “in the near future,” and, at 4 a.m., the second-generation plant resumed operations, initiating raw material flows from the Royal field. “The current flow to the ZVP is 2,500 tons per day. Specialists are systematically increasing the supply of multiphase flow (oil and gas) to reach design capacity. At Tengiz, all technical and human resources have been mobilized to inspect energy facilities and power distribution systems,” the ministry stated. Officials emphasized that restoration efforts are under constant oversight. “TCO remains committed to ensuring reliable production and will increase volumes in stages, as infrastructure readiness and safety have been confirmed.” While the ministry has yet to publicly acknowledge...

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Second Malta-Flagged Vessel Hit in Black Sea as Shipping Risks Rise

The Maltese government has officially condemned recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea after a second ship flying the Maltese flag was damaged in a missile strike. This marks the second such incident within a week involving Maltese-registered ships. A spokesperson for Malta’s Ministry of Transport confirmed that the latest vessel, a Malta-flagged commercial ship, sustained minor shrapnel damage during a missile strike targeting port infrastructure in the Black Sea. The ship remains seaworthy, although one crew member was injured. The earlier incident involved the Matilda, an oil tanker also registered in Malta and chartered by the Kazakh shipping company Kazmortransflot, a subsidiary of state-owned KazMunayGas. On January 13, according to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Matilda was struck by two Ukrainian drones. In 2025, Kazmortransflot increased its transport volumes by more than 15% compared to 2024, reaching 51,400 DFE. The growth was attributed to rising demand for shipping along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Both incidents occurred near the CPC marine terminal outside Novorossiysk. In a statement, Malta’s Ministry of Transport emphasized that attacks on commercial shipping present a serious threat to civilian seafarers, global shipping safety, and the uninterrupted flow of legitimate international trade. The ministry also noted that commercial vessels operating in conflict zones are increasingly exposed to elevated operational and insurance risks, even when transporting cargo fully compliant with international sanctions. The attacks near the CPC marine terminal have already had a measurable economic impact on shipping and energy exports. As of December 2025, insurance rates for merchant ships operating in the Black Sea had risen to 1% of a vessel’s value, up from 0.75% and 0.25% during more stable periods. Ships operating in areas of active military conflict are typically insured per voyage rather than annually, significantly raising operating expenses. Shipping and insurance analysts say the rise in insurance premiums is reducing profit margins on oil and petroleum product exports in the region. Although Kazakhstan’s export volumes have not yet been directly affected, traders and shippers are increasingly factoring geopolitical and logistical risks into their strategies. Repeated disruptions near one of Eurasia’s critical energy hubs are heightening concerns about the reliability of supply routes, especially given limited alternatives. Kazakhstan has already begun restructuring its oil export network due to disruptions at the CPC, its primary crude oil export channel. Authorities have turned to alternative infrastructure to maintain output and avoid production slowdowns.