Drone Attack - The Times Of Central Asia

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Iran

How an Incident on the Azerbaijan-Iran Border Became a Test for Diplomacy in the Region

The drone strike on Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic on March 5 has become one of the most serious incidents in relations between Baku and Tehran in recent years. Azerbaijani authorities described the incident as a terrorist act and demanded explanations and an apology from Iran. Tehran, in turn, rejected the accusations, suggesting the possibility of a provocation by “third forces.” Following the drone incident, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held a phone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to discuss regional security. According to the Azerbaijani presidency, Aliyev thanked Tokayev for condemning the attack on Nakhchivan and for voicing support for Azerbaijan. What began as a local security incident has raised concerns about regional stability in the South Caucasus. Terrorist Act Against the State Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev issued a statement strongly condemning "this despicable terrorist act. Those who committed it must be brought to justice immediately,” Aliyev said. According to Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one drone hit the terminal building of Nakhchivan International Airport, while another crashed near a school in the village of Shekerabad. Two civilians were reportedly injured. Baku stressed that the attack, allegedly launched from Iranian territory, violated international law and could lead to a dangerous escalation of tensions in the region. Diplomatic Escalation Despite the harsh rhetoric in the first hours after the incident, Baku opted to rely primarily on diplomatic tools. The Iranian ambassador was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry and handed a formal note of protest requesting official explanations. Azerbaijan said on Friday that it was evacuating staff from its embassy in Tehran as well as its consulate in the city of Tabriz. At the same time, Azerbaijani security forces were placed on high alert. According to Aliyev, the country’s armed forces were instructed to prepare possible countermeasures. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with Aliyev, condemning the attack and expressing support for Azerbaijan, according to official statements. Reports of alleged Iranian-linked sabotage plots also surfaced, with the Azerbaijani authorities stating that several terrorist attacks had been prevented on the country’s territory. According to the State Security Service, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was behind the plots. Among the alleged targets was the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, a strategic energy corridor linking the Caspian region with Turkey and one of the main routes for exporting Azerbaijani oil. According to Azerbaijani sources, other potential targets included the Israeli embassy, a synagogue in the capital, and a leader of the local Mountain Jewish community. The security service reported that three explosive devices had been brought into the country but were discovered and defused before they could be delivered. The development of the crisis has prompted increased diplomatic contact between world leaders. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian amid the growing regional tensions. Shortly thereafter, Russia’s Foreign Ministry called on both sides to exercise restraint and emphasized the need for a thorough investigation into the drone strike. On March 7, the foreign ministers of all the Central...

Drone Attack

Azerbaijan Accuses Iran of Drone Attack on Nakhchivan

Drones allegedly launched from Iranian territory struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic around noon on March 5, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has said. According to the ministry, one drone fell on the terminal building of Nakhchivan International Airport, while another crashed near a school in the village of Shekerabad. Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement following the incident, "strongly condemn[ing] these drone attacks carried out from Iranian territory, which caused damage to the airport building and injured two civilians,” the ministry said in a statement. The ministry added that the strike on Azerbaijani territory violates the norms and principles of international law and risks escalating tensions in the region. Baku has demanded that Tehran promptly clarify the circumstances of the incident, provide official explanations, and take immediate steps to prevent similar events from occurring in the future. “The Azerbaijani side reserves the right to take appropriate retaliatory measures,” the statement said. Following the incident, Iran’s ambassador, Mujtaba Demirchilu, was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, where he is expected to receive a formal protest note. The strikes coincided with an appeal by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to neighboring countries. According to Pezeshkian, Iran has sought to prevent conflict through diplomatic means but ultimately had no choice but to defend itself. “We respect your sovereignty and believe that the security and stability of the region must be achieved through the collective efforts of its countries,” Pezeshkian wrote on X. Earlier reports indicated that the Azerbaijani authorities were assisting citizens of Central Asian countries in leaving Iran through the Julfa border crossing in Nakhchivan following the start of military operations involving the Islamic Republic. Iran’s military denied launching the drone attack, instead accusing Israel of attempting to provoke tensions between Muslim countries.

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Security Risks Around Kazakhstan’s Oil Exports Ripple Through European Markets

Europe’s oil market is becoming increasingly exposed to disruption as security risks rise along export routes used by Kazakhstan, which the European Union has long viewed as a reliable alternative to Russian supply. The risks extend far beyond Ukraine itself. “Russia continues escalating its attacks and targeting civilians and civilian infrastructures,” an EU spokesperson told The Times of Central Asia. “Russia’s brutal and unacceptable attacks have left people without hot water, heating and electricity in the current weather conditions. Russia’s war of aggression has also severely impacted Black Sea maritime security, including through its use of shadow fleet vessels to circumvent international sanctions, and the persistent attacks on civilian and port infrastructure in Ukraine. On the other hand, Ukraine has accepted an unconditional ceasefire in March 2025. It shows that Russia does not want peace. The EU and the entire international community need to put pressure on Russia to stop its war. “Kazakhstan plays a crucial role for Europe’s energy security and has been for years a reliable partner in diversifying energy sources and ensuring a stable supply for European markets. More than 12% of all the oil imported by the EU comes from Kazakhstan, contributing to the diversification of energy sources and reducing dependency on a limited number of suppliers. The continuous and safe functioning of the supply chain is hence key also for Europe. “Maritime safety and security in the Black Sea is a fundamental component of the new EU strategic approach to the region, adopted in May 2025. The Black Sea is a critical connector between Europe, the Southern Caucasus, Central Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean. Ensuring maritime security and safety in this region is vital not only for the littoral States but also for broader European interests and for many partner countries, as it supports trade flows, sustainable supply chains and enhanced connectivity.” Kazakhstan produced roughly 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 and exported the bulk of that volume. More than 80% of its crude exports move through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, which links oil fields in western Kazakhstan to Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. From there, tankers ship the oil mainly to European refiners. Under normal conditions, the pipeline carries roughly 1.3 million barrels per day, making it one of the most important single supply routes for non-Russian crude entering Europe. Recent events have shown how sensitive European markets are to any disruption along that corridor. On January 14, Bloomberg reported that oil prices in Europe strengthened after shipments of CPC Blend fell short of expectations. Traders cited reduced availability of the light, low-sulfur crude, which is favored by European refiners, forcing buyers to seek alternative grades at higher prices. Despite the recent tightening, traders say the market has so far absorbed disruptions without severe shortages, reflecting high inventories and flexible refinery operations, though that buffer could narrow if attacks persist. That supply pressure followed a series of security incidents in the Black Sea, where commercial shipping and port infrastructure have...

Caspian Sea Tanker Attacks

Kazakhstan Calls on Partners to Ensure Safe Transportation of Caspian Oil

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed deep concern over recent drone attacks on oil tankers en route to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) marine terminal in the Black Sea. During emergency consultations with ambassadors from several European countries, as well as discussions with the U.S. and other foreign partners, Kazakh diplomats urged the adoption of effective measures to safeguard hydrocarbon transport routes, including maritime corridors, in full compliance with international law. The Foreign Ministry emphasized that Kazakhstan is not a party to any armed conflicts and plays a crucial role in supporting global and European energy security by ensuring uninterrupted oil supplies in accordance with its international obligations. It was noted that all the targeted tankers were operating legally, with the required permits and standard identification systems. According to the ministry, the rising number of such incidents signals a growing threat to the integrity of international energy infrastructure. Kazakhstan called for deeper cooperation with partner countries to develop joint mechanisms aimed at preventing future attacks. Earlier, the Ministry of Energy stated that export volumes had not been directly affected: some of the vessels were empty, and others remained seaworthy. However, the fact that these attacks occurred near one of Kazakhstan’s key export hubs has increased concerns among market participants about the reliability of supply chains. Reuters, citing unnamed sources, reported that up to three tankers may have been hit. Among the affected vessels were ships operated by the U.S. energy giant Chevron and others flying Greek flags, raising the stakes in what is becoming a significant geopolitical issue. Kazakh MP Aidos Sarym remarked that ensuring the security of the CPC, where Russia is a major shareholder, should be a shared responsibility. "I believe Chevron is one of the largest shareholders. We also know Ukraine relies heavily on U.S. support. Chevron is not a minor player globally. I think the U.S. and our other partners must jointly urge Ukraine to reconsider its targeting priorities," Sarym said. Amid these developments, Bloomberg reported that Kazakhstan’s oil exports via the CPC could fall by as much as 45% in January due to ongoing disruptions at the terminal.

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Attacks on Tankers in the Black Sea Raise Risks for Oil Markets and Kazakhstan’s Exports

Recent drone attacks on the Delta Harmony and Matilda oil tankers in the Black Sea have added to the growing geopolitical risks facing the global oil market. Both tankers were awaiting loading to transport Kazakh crude via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which operates through the Novorossiysk port in southern Russia. The attacks have placed renewed attention on the exposure of Western energy majors operating in Kazakhstan, particularly Chevron, a key stakeholder in CPC-linked exports. “We are aware of reports of incidents involving vessels inbound to CPC loading facilities, including one Chevron-chartered tanker,” Chevron spokesperson Sally Jones told The Times of Central Asia. “All crew are safe, and the vessel has now reached a safe location. We are coordinating with the ship operator and relevant authorities. The safety of personnel and the protection of the environment remain our top priorities. There has been no impact on TCO operations or exports. Chevron continues to closely monitor the situation, and we refer all further inquiries to CPC.” According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, export volumes were unaffected. The fact that attacks occurred near a key export hub has, however, deepened concerns among market participants over the security of regional oil infrastructure. The country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs added in a statement: "We emphasize that the Republic of Kazakhstan is not a party to any armed conflict, makes a significant contribution to strengthening global and European energy security, and ensures uninterrupted energy supplies in full compliance with established international standards." Reuters, citing unnamed sources, reported that up to three vessels may have been struck, suggesting a broader and potentially escalating threat to maritime safety in the area. The latest incidents follow a series of security-related disruptions in and around the Black Sea and Caspian regions that The Times of Central Asia has previously reported on, including attacks on energy and transport infrastructure linked to regional export routes. While earlier incidents did not result in prolonged outages, they have steadily heightened concerns among industry participants over the vulnerability of critical energy corridors. The CPC is a vital artery for Kazakhstan’s oil industry. More than 80% of the country’s crude exports, including output from major fields like Tengiz and Karachaganak, flow through this route. Disruptions in the Novorossiysk area could quickly affect shipping timetables, freight and insurance rates, and, ultimately, global oil prices. Some analysts warn that these repeated incidents near the CPC expose Kazakhstan’s strategic vulnerabilities, forcing markets to price in a “geopolitical premium.” More significantly, interruptions in oil product flows could have domestic political consequences, potentially prompting a reconfiguration of Kazakhstan’s political timetable. “The situation involving the CPC, the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant, and reported attempted attacks on the Central Asia-Center gas pipeline, used to transport Russian gas through Kazakhstan, could significantly destabilize the country’s economy,” wrote oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov on his personal Telegram channel. He added that, in his view, it could become politically rational either to accelerate elections in anticipation of further instability or to delay them until...

Politics

Kazakh MP Sarym Proposes Legal Measures Over Social Media Posts on Pipeline Strike

A Kazakhstani lawmaker has proposed criminal liability for social media posts that express support for attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. During a recent session of the Mazhilis (lower house of parliament), MP Aidos Sarym called for posts endorsing Ukrainian military strikes on oil infrastructure to be examined under existing laws on terrorism and high treason. The proposal follows a November 29 incident in which Ukraine’s armed forces reportedly targeted the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia. The attack damaged the CPC’s VPU-2 offshore loading terminal and temporarily halted operations. Addressing Prosecutor General Berik Asylov and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Culture and Information Aida Balaeva, Sarym said the incident had sparked public commentary online that he believes exceeds the boundaries of protected speech. He called for investigations into such posts and suggested they may warrant legal action. “Such actions clearly go beyond the constitutional right to freedom of speech and directly harm national interests,” Sarym said, proposing that the government also launch an information campaign to discourage rhetoric supporting violence against critical infrastructure. The initiative coincides with broader debates in Kazakhstan over how to manage public discourse surrounding the war in Ukraine, amid concerns that expressions of support for either side could have diplomatic implications. Kazakhstan maintains relations with both Ukraine and Russia and has sought to preserve a neutral stance throughout the conflict. Sarym’s remarks were interpreted by some political analysts as a broader signal to members of parliament, following earlier comments by fellow deputy Yermurat Bapi. Bapi had previously characterized Ukrainian strikes on CPC facilities as part of a legitimate military strategy, a position that Sarym suggested could fall under legal review. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov noted that approximately 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports transit through the CPC. While the pipeline includes Russian ownership, most shares belong to companies based in Kazakhstan, Europe, and the U.S., he said, countering claims that the CPC is solely a Russian asset. Kazakhstan is accelerating the repair of the VPU-2 terminal, now aiming for completion by January 2026. The Ministry of National Economy is currently assessing the economic impact of the disruption. Oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov estimated the production loss at 480,000 tons, equating to about $210 million in revenue over two weeks. He forecast monthly losses exceeding $400 million, including an estimated $150 million shortfall in budgetary revenue. Baidildinov expressed support for Sarym’s proposal, describing it as part of efforts to safeguard internal stability amid external geopolitical uncertainty. The proposal has not yet led to formal legislative action, and no prosecutions have been reported. Further discussion on the issue is expected as part of Kazakhstan’s broader approach to managing public discourse and national security in the context of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.